Value of: Josh Manson to the Leafs at the deadline

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If you think you're getting a 1st + Knies, you're going to be disgusted with the return. I'll bookmark this for the trade thread though.

Wouldn't do Knies straight up for Manson. You can make the argument that Manson's market is a 1st, but even that's stretching it and Knies is not some B prospect throw in.

Ritchie is also not costing a 3rd to dump. Matt Martin @2.5m with more term was traded by the Leafs for positive value, despite worse production. Ritchie's 1 year after this is pennies for a cap floor team.

Knies is just this years Amirov, Sandin, Robertson, Liljergren etc, solid prospects but nothing that is going to help the leafs get over the hump.

He is a B+ prospect at best right now.

And thats fine, a maybe 1st doesnt likely win you the sweepstakes

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Dont need offense. Its the defense, edge and physicality I want.

Manson to EDM makes a ton of sense for EDM.. IF they can afford him

 

[The Assclown]

Knies is just this years Amirov, Sandin, Robertson, Liljergren etc, solid prospects but nothing that is going to help the leafs get over the hump.

He is a B+ prospect at best right now.

And thats fine, a maybe 1st doesnt likely win you the sweepstakes

I originally proposed Knies because it would be hard for another team to beat that and I want to ensure he’s a Leaf at TDL if he’s traded at all.

he’s more than a B prospect. His performance this year combined with some of his intangibles (skating, size, etc) makes him one of the better prospects out there. You’d be lucky to get someone of his stature for Manson.. just saying

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I originally proposed Knies because it would be hard for another team to beat that and I want to ensure he’s a Leaf at TDL if he’s traded at all.

he’s more than a B prospect. His performance this year combined with some of his intangibles (skating, size, etc) makes him one of the better prospects out there. You’d be lucky to get someone of his stature for Manson.. just saying

Well i agree thats why i called him a B+

 

[Fogelhund]

Well i agree thats why i called him a B+

A couple of months ago, you had soured on Manson, and suggested a second would pick him up, that he just wasn't what he was. I've watched a couple of games of his this year, and he seemed to have been pretty decent, so clearly the second won't do anymore. What do you think his real value is now? I don't think Toronto wants to get rid of a Knies... unless you want to move Comtois too... BTW, what's going on with him? He's a guy whom I had mentioned to you, before his breakout season, and then this year happened....

 

[34]

The Leafs don’t need him. Once Muzzin is back they are solid on D.

 

[123offtheglass]

There's a decent group of potential D available at TDL which would likely lower his value, but Ducks could very well just keep him too.

Some comparable trades:
Skjei: Brady Skjei Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps (1st)
Dillon: Brenden Dillon Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps (2nd + 3rd; then 2nd X 2)
Savard: David Savard Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps (1st + 3rd) *4th was separate retention deal with Detroit.

Anaheim should be after a 1st; he should be in the range of 2nd + 3rd to 1st + 3rd, depending on how sought after he is.

With 50% retention, I'd guess a 1st or 2nd X 2, more likely the latter of the two.

 

[McVespa99]

Manson to EDM makes a ton of sense for EDM.. IF they can afford him[/QUOTE]


That's an entirely different issue

 

[seanlinden]

Personally, I believe that the Leafs probably rank Knies as their #1 prospect right now. He's had a REALLY good year, he's the type of player that the team has been consistently after, and he's going to the Olympics. I highly doubt he's available, even for Josh Manson.

That being said, I don't believe the Ducks will trade Manson. GMs are competitive guys. While they do operate with the "need" to always upgrade their team, they know that this is hockey, and if you get into the playoffs, anything can happen... see Montreal last year. While I do think selling is the right thing to do -- the hauls that they could get for Rakell, Manson, Lindholm and maybe even Getzlaf would be huge -- i just don't see falling far enough down the standings for them "throw in the towel" like that.

That being said... even if the Ducks do decide to sell on Manson, I don't believe the Leafs will find the "right" deal for him.

At 50% retained, they would still have to move Justin Holl or Travis Dermott+ to accomodate. Sure, the + can be Nick Ritchie, but if they move Ritchie, I'd imaging they're going to want to add a forward to replace.

Moving Holl to accommodate Manson is a bit of a tough one to do -- Manson's UFA demands are going to be too high to be able to re-sign him, and then it'll put them back in the market for a Justin Holl-replacement.

Ultimately, I think a guy like Scott Mayfield is a more realistic target for the Leafs. It can be done with Travis Dermott's cap hit, and then gives the Leafs 3 options to fill 2 spots on the right side next year (Mayfield, Holl, and Liljegren)

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The Leafs don’t need him. Once Muzzin is back they are solid on D.

and are back to being 1 injury away from not being solid again.

That's why they need to add, to gaurd against that.

 

[cheesymc]

I think if the Leafs are serious about going far in the playoffs, they need to upgrade defensively. I’m sure the ducks want a 1st for Manson, but probably won’t get that, but Knies + 2nd is what they expect at the very least. Knies is definitely outplaying his draft position and also overrated by Leaf fans so I would say his value is in the middle, around a high 2nd round pick value. His upside is a complimentary top 9 player like their lost Zach Hyman.

As for Manson, I would say his contract value is around an Edmundson 3.5 to McNabb value of 2.85 million. So around a 3 year 9 million, anything more is significant overpayment and risk for a player who isn’t the same and has recent injury concerns, but has had a good contract year.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Prob not super far off tbh

Manson at 50% >1st

Ritchie at 1.3 for 2 years = what.... maybe a 4th maybe 3rd for us to take

Use left over value of manson being > than late 1st + the contract and id value it in the 2nd rounder range.

Knies fits the value tbh, maybe a small add from anaheim

I'd try to grab Mayfield...failing that, Braun seems like the smarter addition than gutting the prospect group.

We can't keep trading our best prospects and having zero success. The path through the division isn't easy and better odds than not that we're not getting by Florida or Tampa.

 

[Jerkbait]

The Leafs don’t need him. Once Muzzin is back they are solid on D.

They need alesst one more pc on the back end. A bigger net clearing guy. Dubas will make a move for a D as predicted right here.

 

[thusk]

Klindberg
Chyxhrun
Ristolainen
Lindholm
Giordano
Manson
Chiarot
Leddy
Miller

You can add player like
braun
Stralman
Dekeyser

I dont remember a year with much of dmen who could be available. Season when player like manson gave a 1st round pick and more was season where they was the best d on the market. Right now hes not on the top 5.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I think if the Leafs are serious about going far in the playoffs, they need to upgrade defensively. I’m sure the ducks want a 1st for Manson, but probably won’t get that, but Knies + 2nd is what they expect at the very least.

uh, the Leafs would much, much rather trade their 1st than Knies + 2nd lol.

They would rather trade their 1st than Knies, period. You have no idea what you're talking about in terms of valuations. Dubas loves trading 1st rounders because people see the 1st and get all excited not realizing the difference between a pick in the 20s and a 2nd rounder is not big at all. This is a guy that loves to trade down in the draft. They're not going to value a very late 1st over Knies, who is developing wonderfully.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Klindberg
Chyxhrun
Ristolainen
Lindholm
Giordano
Manson
Chiarot
Leddy
Miller

You can add player like
braun
Stralman
Dekeyser

I dont remember a year with much of dmen who could be available. Season when player like manson gave a 1st round pick and more was season where they was the best d on the market. Right now hes not on the top 5.

I feel like for what the leafs want/need that list gets significantly smaller... manson prob makes top 5.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'd try to grab Mayfield...failing that, Braun seems like the smarter addition than gutting the prospect group.

We can't keep trading our best prospects and having zero success. The path through the division isn't easy and better odds than not that we're not getting by Florida or Tampa.

We haven't traded any prospects, not a single prospect was traded last year

 

[thusk]

I feel like for what the leafs want/need that list gets significantly smaller... manson prob makes top 5.

For whats leafs need yes and hes maybe at #1 but he you have like 3 serious buyer unstead of 10, the price will not be the same.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Another game that shows why yes Josh Manson should be a target

 

[Gliff]

Would Toronto even be able to resign him next year?

 

[quackquackquack]

If they keep playing like this they will

A week and a half later and the Ducks are healthy and piling up points. At least do your due diligence as to why a team is sliding. They now have essentially 2 weeks off to rest up and actually practice (haven't done that consistently since before the Holiday break)

That being said, Manson is probably available for the right price at the deadline. Mahura has looked pretty good when healthy and can probably be a suitable stop gap this season

 

[Gliff]

A week and a half later and the Ducks are healthy and piling up points. At least do your due diligence as to why a team is sliding. They now have essentially 2 weeks off to rest up and actually practice (haven't done that consistently since before the Holiday break)

That being said, Manson is probably available for the right price at the deadline. Mahura has looked pretty good when healthy and can probably be a suitable stop gap this season

To be fair, Gibson has been carrying the Ducks during the past week and a half.
It isn't like the Ducks are tearing it up.

 

[quackquackquack]

To be fair, Gibson has been carrying the Ducks during the past week and a half.
It isn't like the Ducks are tearing it up.

Definitely true but the point is that they are still winning games and they haven't practiced regularly or had a chance to actually rest up from injuries/covid. The time is now.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

A week and a half later and the Ducks are healthy and piling up points. At least do your due diligence as to why a team is sliding. They now have essentially 2 weeks off to rest up and actually practice (haven't done that consistently since before the Holiday break)

That being said, Manson is probably available for the right price at the deadline. Mahura has looked pretty good when healthy and can probably be a suitable stop gap this season

A week and a half later and nothing has has really changed except that their record went from 3-7 in their last 10 to 4-4-2.

Here is the reality the Ducks are in 2nd in the division but that's fake here is why.

LA has 2 games in hand
SJ has 3 games in hand.
Dallas has 6 games in hand
Edmonton has 7 games in hand
Winnipeg has 7 games in hand
Calgary has 8 games in hand.

I wouldn't be to worried about Winnipeg I don't think they have it in them.

But LA is right there Calgary VS Dallas is tonight so one of them has to win and will gain 2 points

If it's Calgary they get Arizona tomorrow that's a likely win.

There is a chance Calgary alone could gain 4 points in 2 days and still have 6 games in hand.

The Ducks will get passed by several teams because there are a lot of teams with WAY to many games in hand.

 

[Gliff]

Definitely true but the point is that they are still winning games and they haven't practiced regularly or had a chance to actually rest up from injuries/covid. The time is now.

Ya I just don't see the time being now. The Ducks need to focus on the future and if they can't resign Manson before the deadline they need to trade him. Same with Rakell.

Lindholm is the only exception because losing him would set the Ducks back a long time.