Leafs badly need help on the blue line but Dubas can't keep giving away firsts for a team that has shown it is clearly not a contender. Let this team show that it has what it takes to go on a run, then start mortgaging the future.
Thankfully, there are still some prospects in the system with potential but no guarantees. Considering that, Dubas should be looking for a steady bottom-pairing RD that won't cost 1st or 2nds (and the sooner the better, takes time for D to acclimate to a new team).
If he can't find it, he may convince himself that since his job is certainly on the line this spring, this team has to advance a few rounds and so he takes the plunge and goes for one of the higher valued targets. However, considering the Leafs' likely opponents in the first, and potentially, second round (and third and fourth), I definitely don't envy Dubas' situation. This team is in tough no matter who they bring in.