I'd give Keefe till the 20 game mark

[Dekes For Days]

Because we've played the extra game.
Pretty easy to see

What are you talking about? Point percentage is relative to games played. We have the 2nd best record in the division.

 

[Zybalto]

At the 16 game mark of 2019-20, the Leafs were 8-5-3, exactly where we stand today, so I guess you could say we're an inflexion point where we could 1) keep treading water 2) bottom out 3) hit a winning streak, which I suppose will determine the fate of Keefe. Babcock was fired November 20 at the 23 game mark, so the next two weeks will be important.

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Again, looking at the underlying stats for both teams records shows one is near the top of the league and the other is below average. Babs team was lucky to have that record and it's not a stretch to say Keefes probably deserved a couple more points........at least that what the stats are telling us.

.....just like I kept telling everyone about Buffalo earlier in the season. Bad underlying numbers and a sky high PDO are not a great recipie for sustained winning. The Devils have the incredible numbers to go with their record and so they continued to succeed.

....and even then, the team is running with a mediocre 4th stringer right now so why even throw any coach under the bus? ....and why throw the coach with the best record of modern times away? Change for the sake of change seems an incredibly dumb idea to me considering exactly what failed us in the past.

It all doesn't make much sense to me but I do enjoy the passion everyone has behind the team. I mean, the team had a great comeback last night on an emotional night in a game they deserved to win. Keefe was super classy starting all the Swedes and got the win in the end. That's a good night for Keefe right? To look around here is to think they got blown out or something though right?

 

[ACC1224]

Winning the first rounds is passing the tests? I get it, it's like the Dubas metric.

He ‘passed all the tests’ without winning anything.
Short bus school logic.

 

[Stephen]

He ‘passed all the tests’ without winning anything.
Short bus school logic.

I think people have to remember how the Dubas era started and what the implied goals were vs where we are now.

The early Shanaplan was looking like the Houston Astros and Dubas was the hockey equivalent of a Theo Epstein who would break a championship drought for a historic franchisee with new school insights. Throughout the process the name drops have been the 90s Red Wings, the Lightning, the Capitals, the Blackhawks, the Penguins. I'll leave it up to others to characterize where we are at now, but I don't think we are on course.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

I think people have to remember how the Dubas era started and what the implied goals were vs where we are now.

The early Shanaplan was looking like the Houston Astros and Dubas was the hockey equivalent of a Theo Epstein who would break a championship drought for a historic franchisee with new school insights. Throughout the process the name drops have been the 90s Red Wings, the Lightning, the Capitals, the Blackhawks, the Penguins. I'll leave it up to others to characterize where we are at now, but I don't think we are on course.

Dubas can't succeed cause there's no mathematical equation for balls. Your players either have them or they don't.

 

[rocketman588]

The Leafs literally have the worst record in the league against the bottom 5 teams over the last 2 years and have been in the top 5 total points over the same span. Quality of schedule being easy is actually to a disadvantage for this team.

And you can't see why people are frustrated?

We wouldn't have played Tampa last year if we showed up against ass teams

It's the same old shit

 

[Stephen]

Again, looking at the underlying stats for both teams records shows one is near the top of the league and the other is below average. Babs team was lucky to have that record and it's not a stretch to say Keefes probably deserved a couple more points........at least that what the stats are telling us.

.....just like I kept telling everyone about Buffalo earlier in the season. Bad underlying numbers and a sky high PDO are not a great recipie for sustained winning. The Devils have the incredible numbers to go with their record and so they continued to succeed.

....and even then, the team is running with a mediocre 4th stringer right now so why even throw any coach under the bus? ....and why throw the coach with the best record of modern times away? Change for the sake of change seems an incredibly dumb idea to me considering exactly what failed us in the past.

It all doesn't make much sense to me but I do enjoy the passion everyone has behind the team. I mean, the team had a great comeback last night on an emotional night in a game they deserved to win. Keefe was super classy starting all the Swedes and got the win in the end. That's a good night for Keefe right? To look around here is to think they got blown out or something though right?

Just a week and a half ago the talking heads were talking about the underlying metrics of the Leafs being flat relative to 2021-22 prior to the turnaround. Have the underlying numbers improved so significantly between Boston-Carolina-Vegas-Pittsburgh-Vancouver?

Guess it really depends on what the big goals are for 2022-23. I'm fully ready to accept a step back season if we're in a rinse and repeat up and down cycle over the next few weeks and months and explore a bigger retool of the roster come summer time. But what would it say about our long term goals if we're a tread water, middle of the pack team? I think Dubas' construction is more of an issue than Keefe per se, but do we continue on this path?

 

[rocketman588]

What are you talking about? Point percentage is relative to games played. We have the 2nd best record in the division.

Might wanna look at how playing fewer games impacts percentages but obviously you're only agenda is to simp for Dubas so no matter what is said it doesn't really matter

I would hold off on buying your division runner up t-shirt if I were you

 

[ACC1224]

I think people have to remember how the Dubas era started and what the implied goals were vs where we are now.

The early Shanaplan was looking like the Houston Astros and Dubas was the hockey equivalent of a Theo Epstein who would break a championship drought for a historic franchisee with new school insights. Throughout the process the name drops have been the 90s Red Wings, the Lightning, the Capitals, the Blackhawks, the Penguins. I'll leave it up to others to characterize where we are at now, but I don't think we are on course.

I don’t know how anyone, if they’re being honest, could categorize his tenure as anything but a disappointment.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

If Dubas was the GM for a European soccer franchise he'd be the GOAT lol, unfortunately for him the NHL plays a few more weeks after season's over.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Might wanna look at how playing fewer games impacts percentages

You're the one that might want to do that. So basically, we're 2nd in points, and 2nd in points percentage, but we're not actually 2nd according to you because another team could win all of their games and tie us? Come on.

Obviously winning games improves your record, but that doesn't change what their records are now, and right now, Toronto has the 2nd best record in the division, even when accounting for games played discrepancies. You can't just give all opponents credit for wins they haven't actually gotten to make the Leafs look worse.

 

[rocketman588]

I think people have to remember how the Dubas era started and what the implied goals were vs where we are now.

The early Shanaplan was looking like the Houston Astros and Dubas was the hockey equivalent of a Theo Epstein who would break a championship drought for a historic franchisee with new school insights. Throughout the process the name drops have been the 90s Red Wings, the Lightning, the Capitals, the Blackhawks, the Penguins. I'll leave it up to others to characterize where we are at now, but I don't think we are on course.

The sad part is that all of those teams could play tough hockey if needed. We have one way of playing.

The wings had wars against the avs. Maybe we'd stick check them after the whistle if what happened to draper happened to like kerfoot

 

[Stephen]

I don’t know how anyone, if they’re being honest, could categorize his tenure as anything but a disappointment.

Interesting that he has a fanbase that's more supportive than his employers at the moment. It always feels like a referendum on a set of ideas and processes, but hockey isn't that intellectual of a topic. Can we just have actual results?

 

[Larcos_Unal]

The sad part is that all of those teams could play tough hockey if needed. We have one way of playing.

The wings had wars against the avs. Maybe we'd stick check them after the whistle if what happened to draper happened to like kerfoot

I'm convinced nobody would do a thing. Outside of Giordano and Bunting nobody on this team has any stones.
Yet we keep drafting and developing smurfs?? Does Dubas understand that you are allowed to draft 6'2 players who can skate and be a nightmare to play against?

He finally learned his lesson and drafted Knies, only took 4 years

 

[Ashdown2]

You realize we're only "second" because we've played more games then every other team behind us right

do u know how winning percentage works ?
the team is litterally 1 OT win instead of lose to have bascically the same record as carolina (3rd in conference)

ppl need to stop acting like the world is on fire.

 

[andora]

With points percentage does winning percentage matter anymore?

Does anyone else look at it like a .500 team? We have won 50% of our games?

Or am i too old school

 

[Nineteen67]

I would hope to God that 1 playoff series win wouldn't keep everyone employed.

How would people feel about Dubas/Keefe if they made it to the semi-finals? Are they safe then?

unless someone in the board room sees the ledger of lost $$$$, It absolute will keep them employed.
Just 1/2 the sunk costs and lost revenues this management group has incurred would be generational wealth to most people.

With points percentage does winning percentage matter anymore?

Does anyone else look at it like a .500 team? We have won 50% of our games?

Or am i too old school

It matters in the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It matters in the playoffs.

No it doesn't. There's no 3v3 OT or shootout in the playoffs.

 

[Nineteen67]

Hard working teams will always be in the fight. Late 90's and early 2000's leaf teams under Pat Quinn had the fight. Not much skill, but Quinn got the best out of the guys who were willing to work hard.

I enjoy watching the high end skill but I enjoy hard nosed hard working hockey more.

I like both. I really enjoyed the Tampa, Washington and Blues Cup runs.

This year's Leafs:

8-5-3 (Tied for 12th in the NHL)

7th in the NHL for xGF%

2 of the top 4 D out for most of the season and paying 4th string goalie the last 3rd. Our best player having a poor shooting% to start the year leading to a super low PDO when compared with xGF%. The team has been playing better than their record.



Babcocks last year till he was fired :

9-10-4 (25th in the NHL)

24th in the NHL for xGF%

They are pretty much who they were. Even had a higher PDO than this team too with those stats.

Once Marner got hurt and Andersen couldn't stay hot, the team went into a tailspin costing Babs his job. He never had great run of play numbers due to terrible defensive numbers which completely turned around under Keefe (and have been amazing ever since including this season)


Statistically, there is very little similarity between the two teams. Could this team crash like that one? Anything possible.....but all the indicators say it's more probable they move into the top 10 soon, especially if they get healthy quickly.

Keefe remains the coach with the highest winning% of the modern era despite below average goaltending (also the main cause of the teams playoff misfortunes). I'm intrigued to see how the new guys fare in the playoffs as the pressure just cooked Andersen and Campbell (which is why we moved on right?)

If they go 1-5-1 to match Babs record that year, I can see a change though for sure. It's certainly a little sketchy around here.......but Keefe being let go would probably hurt the team more than anyone realizes.

The Sun letting Simmons go would probably have a more positive effect on the team IMO.

4th string has never played. Sitting on the bench doesn’t count.

 

[Stephen]

I like both. I really enjoyed the Tampa, Washington and Blues Cup runs.


4th string has never payed. Sitting on the bench doesn’t count.

I think Kallgren would be the 4th stringer depending on your feelings on Woll.

 

[Zybalto]

Just a week and a half ago the talking heads were talking about the underlying metrics of the Leafs being flat relative to 2021-22 prior to the turnaround. Have the underlying numbers improved so significantly between Boston-Carolina-Vegas-Pittsburgh-Vancouver?

Guess it really depends on what the big goals are for 2022-23. I'm fully ready to accept a step back season if we're in a rinse and repeat up and down cycle over the next few weeks and months and explore a bigger retool of the roster come summer time. But what would it say about our long term goals if we're a tread water, middle of the pack team? I think Dubas' construction is more of an issue than Keefe per se, but do we continue on this path?

Considering the Leafs had the following rankings after 11 games:

Shot differential: 8th in the NHL
Scoring chance differential: 4th in the NHL
xGF%: 6th in the NHL ( 8th 5v5)

...why do you think they said what they did?

Thr Leafs have gone 3-1-1 since then and it's still negative all the time right?

Why?

Maybe they accidentally looked up Tampa instead?

 

[Nineteen67]

I think Kallgren would be the 4th stringer depending on your feelings on Woll.

Woll is on SOIR and was never going to be available.

When they signed Samsonov I said he’d be the number 1.

 

[Zybalto]

Woll is on SOIR and was never going to be available.

When they signed Samsonov I said he’d be the number 1.

If Woll was healthy he's 100% up over Kallgren. That's why Kallgren is our 4th stringer...because he is.

He's currently our number one but not our 1st option right? He's our 4th option.

 

[Nineteen67]

With the goaltending being better than expected, do they take the chance and leave Murray on LTIR and use his cap space on an upgrade?

 

[Nineteen67]

If Woll was healthy he's 100% up over Kallgren. That's why Kallgren is our 4th stringer...because he is.

He's currently our number one but not our 1st option right? He's our 4th option.

But he wasn’t healthy. He was never going to be available to be in the equation.

If you can use him in your fantasy league, great.