How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[WetcoastOrca]

I thought we had top 10 goaltending all year long, regular season and playoffs, for backup goalie money. I'm personally convinced he's an above average starter.

I agree he was this year in a 22 game sample size of games he started. I’m just not convinced he can do that in a 50 game workload in a normal season. To me, that’s an above average starter.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Do people consider Matthews to be overpaid too? I know Marner may not get the contract he did in the current market but his PPG production in the regular season is only slightly less than Matthews. However, their playoff production is almost identical with Marner having 1 more point than Matthews in the same number of games.

I do not follow Toronto all that much but am curious why people are saying Marner is overpaid when Matthews or Tavares are not? Is it because Marner is a winger and not a C? Or does he just mooch points off his centers?

Nah they are all overpaid, but some people don’t like saying anything bad about Matthews for some reason.
people think 11.634 x 5 is a good contract when in reality it’s not that much better than marners, he scores goals, but gets the same amount of points as Marner. He came off of 63 points being his highest at the time of signing. He’d probably ask for more than Mcdavid in 8, thinking 13-13.5 which is bonkers considering he should be making 9-9.5 on a 5 year deal.

 

[socko]

I agree he was this year in a 22 game sample size of games he started. I’m just not convinced he can do that in a 50 game workload in a normal season. To me, that’s an above average starter.

Perhaps. The team seems to agree with you since the rumors are they're looking for far more than an average backup but someone to split starts.

 

[malcb33]

It was widely discussed when Marner signed that Dubas got completely played, Marner saw what Matthews got and demanded something similar and Dubas caved super quick because Marner was popular with the media.

Yes, I’m not debating that and I’ve never said it was a good deal at anytime.

The point I’m making is that the OP isn’t taking into account when the deal was signed and with the financial impact of Covid it makes a bad deal look worse.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Nah they are all overpaid, but some people don’t like saying anything bad about Matthews for some reason.
people think 11.634 x 5 is a good contract when in reality it’s not that much better than marners, he scores goals, but gets the same amount of points as Marner. He came off of 63 points being his highest at the time of signing. He’d probably ask for more than Mcdavid in 8, thinking 13-13.5 which is bonkers considering he should be making 9-9.5 on a 5 year deal.

Despite being overpaid though, would most people not agree that all 3 have positive trade values? Its not like you have to add to have someone take Marner's contract, right?

 

[socko]

Despite being overpaid though, would most people not agree that all 3 have positive trade values? Its not like you have to add to have someone take Marner's contract, right?

There are wildly different opinions of Marner's value. What makes a good trade is trading someone for what they think he's worth, plus a little more if you can get it, rather than what you think they're worth. That also provides you some insurance in case you're the one who is wrong.

As for Marner specifically, I would say it's almost universally accepted he is overpaid, even his biggest fans have trouble justifying his contract, but I've heard from multiple people that his real money owed after his bonus this July will be $6 per year. A lot of teams that value real money, the cheap ones like Arizona, would love that bang for the buck. Still, even if I have extra cap space, I don't give that away for free when I can sell it instead.

 

[Krewe]

Nylander is fair value if not good value and anyone saying otherwise is biased.

marner should have come in at 9-9.5M, but if he ever has a 100pt season it’s justified in my eyes

 

[AllDay28]

Ah nothing like a Leafs thread from a Habs fan…

 

[DuklaNation]

Marner is a 7.5-8M player. Not a pure goal scorer. Limited in other areas. Nylander is a 5M player. Soft, opportunistic player that relies on others for chances. There is a role for that but NEVER overpay for it.

 

[Wats]

Tavares is who's overpaid at 11M, feel like Marner/Matthews/Nylander are all fairly reasonable.

 

[TS Quint]

So you’re trying to tell me that this thread isn’t about judging Marner’s contract in the current economic landscape which makes a bad deal look even worse?

agree to disagree then, if that’s your take?

It has nothing to do with the economic landscape. The Leafs should have more cap space to use if the Big 4 Contracts were not overpaid regardless of a flat cap.

 

[TS Quint]

Do people consider Matthews to be overpaid too? I know Marner may not get the contract he did in the current market but his PPG production in the regular season is only slightly less than Matthews. However, their playoff production is almost identical with Marner having 1 more point than Matthews in the same number of games.

I do not follow Toronto all that much but am curious why people are saying Marner is overpaid when Matthews or Tavares are not? Is it because Marner is a winger and not a C? Or does he just mooch points off his centers?

Mathews is a great player. Deserving to be the 3rd highest paid player in the league? Maybe. The problem is the 5 year term for me. If he got 8 years you throw your hands up and do what you have to.

The other question is can you be a Cup winner with a $10+ Million player in your line up? It Hasn’t been done yet and won’t be done this year. The Leafs have 3 of those players.

 

[DomBarr]

Jack Campbell still has the best GAA in the playoffs and he's tied for the lead in save percentage. And he has a cap hit of $1.65. One of Kyle Dubas's absolute best moments as GM.

NHL Stats

Until he signs said Jack Campbell to a 5 yr $6M contract and you realize there is a reason at age 29 he had never been a starter.

As to the poll...while I think the contract that Dubas ended up giving Nylander was terrible he is not really overpaid that much anymore though the contract is still a stinker.
While I think the contract Dubas ended up giving Marner is terrible he is significantly overpaid right now.

 

[AllDay28]

Mathews is a great player. Deserving to be the 3rd highest paid player in the league? Maybe. The problem is the 5 year term for me. If he got 8 years you throw your hands up and do what you have to.

The other question is can you be a Cup winner with a $10+ Million player in your line up? It Hasn’t been done yet and won’t be done this year. The Leafs have 3 of those players.

tampa has 2 players at 9.5m which is essentially 10.

Carey price also makes 10.5

 

[AllDay28]

Until he signs said Jack Campbell to a 5 yr $6M contract and you realize there is a reason at age 29 he had never been a starter.

As to the poll...while I think the contract that Dubas ended up giving Nylander was terrible he is not really overpaid that much anymore though the contract is still a stinker.
While I think the contract Dubas ended up giving Marner is terrible he is significantly overpaid right now.

Maybe the reason he wasn’t a starter is cause the Kings have Jonathan Quick who was really great for a bit?

 

[socko]

Until he signs said Jack Campbell to a 5 yr $6M contract and you realize there is a reason at age 29 he had never been a starter.

As to the poll...while I think the contract that Dubas ended up giving Nylander was terrible he is not really overpaid that much anymore though the contract is still a stinker.
While I think the contract Dubas ended up giving Marner is terrible he is significantly overpaid right now.

Anything is possible with Dubas, a 5 year old could out negotiate him. That said, Jack isn't one of his guys. He was still trying to give the job back to Andersen late in the season when anyone could see the job was taken.

 

[TS Quint]

tampa has 2 players at 9.5m which is essentially 10.

Carey price also makes 10.5

10 is 10, this isn’t hard. If the Leafs were capped out at 9.5m as a Max contract no one would be complaining in this thread.

I did forget Price. He’s the one hope left to rep the $10 million+ players but that feels like it’s a long shot to me.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

This is a shiatty poll. It's a loaded question and the options to answers are terrible.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Marner is indeed overpaid by maybe 1.5-2M.

But he was still 4th in league scoring this year, so anyone who thinks he doesn't deserve at least 9M for what he delivers, is out to lunch.

Nylander is probably fairly paid.

 

[34]

Only on the first page, but Marner in the 7 million range? Wtf are ppl smoking here ffs.

I am not a fan of the leafs, but give me a break. Maybe he should've gotten 9.5-10 million instead of just under 11, but he is damned good still. He's a 90-100 pt player the last 3 seasons. Long term I don't see how he would've gotten much less than now.

Never hated the Nylander contract unlike most ppl. Thought it was fair value from the start (maybe marginally more than I thought) and he's been good since.

I don’t think Marner is worth $7M. I think 5 max. He is not good!

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Despite being overpaid though, would most people not agree that all 3 have positive trade values? Its not like you have to add to have someone take Marner's contract, right?

Oh there’s a difference between overpaid and cap dump. People do need to realize that. 31 of the other teams would easily take Marner at the right price. Let’s say someone like skinner, he’s a cap dump and would need a premium piece to be attached so that he could be dealt. Marner isn’t that, he can and would return a decent haul in a potential trade. Same with Matthews or nylander

 

[malcb33]

It has nothing to do with the economic landscape. The Leafs should have more cap space to use if the Big 4 Contracts were not overpaid regardless of a flat cap.

So the way the Leafs chose to allocate their future cap has nothing to do with how the cap WAS forecasted to rise?

Their current financial situation was compounded by covid as it changed the caps trajectory, creating the current economic landscape we're in. If they (Dubus) had known a frozen cap was on the horizon, Marner wouldn't have had the same bargaining power during those negotiations.

How can you be overpaid or underpaid without taking the economic landscape into account? The agents literally use the player's percentage of the cap to justify contract demands and "contract value" is measured against that same percentage of the cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Just like you have been incorrect countless times.

I haven't been incorrect at all. You on the other hand...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Do people consider Matthews to be overpaid too? I know Marner may not get the contract he did in the current market but his PPG production in the regular season is only slightly less than Matthews. However, their playoff production is almost identical with Marner having 1 more point than Matthews in the same number of games.

I do not follow Toronto all that much but am curious why people are saying Marner is overpaid when Matthews or Tavares are not? Is it because Marner is a winger and not a C? Or does he just mooch points off his centers?

Matthews and Marner are overpaid by about $1-$1.5 million per year. Nylander's fine, though if nitpicking maybe around $500k.

I don't think any of them are egregiously overpaid individually, though. It's more of a cumulative effect of each making around $1-ish million more than they should, combined with Tavares making probably $2-$2.5 million more than he should, so as a collective unit they're making around $5-$6 million more than they should combined.

That extra $5 or $6 million could have gone a long way to adding depth.

 

[Holymakinaw]

That extra $5 or $6 million could have gone a long way to adding depth.

In a vacuum maybe. But in reality, if the Leafs took that 5-6M for added depth, they wouldn't have Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares.

To stay & play in the mess that is Toronto.......that's the price.