How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[Dache]

Nylander about 1M too much and Marner should be making in the 6M range.

Come on now. Poor playoffs for Marner or not that’s ridiculous

 

[Dache]

This thread is kinda silly. At the time Marner signed his deal, the cap was expected to rise incrementally every year. Now that Covid froze the cap and the financial landscape has changed, it's silly to judge his contract with what we know in hindsight.

Yes, he is currently overpaid. Even with the expected rising cap, his deal was on the high side, especially for an RFA winger and it looks worse now, but Dubas couldn't have predicted a pandemic.

No he couldn’t have predicted a pandemic, he could have also not handed out contracts based on what may or may not happen in the future like that.

 

[FMichael]

People have been talking about how Toronto Overpaid their Forwards.
Now I know Matthews Deserves what he's being Paid, but are Marner and Nylander that Overpaid?

Let's Discuss.

They're all overpaid - they haven't won a damn thing - Dubas screwed up by allowing the kids to play with the checkbook.

Detroit will win the Cup before Toronto.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

No he couldn’t have predicted a pandemic, he could have also not handed out contracts based on what may or may not happen in the future like that.

It's amazing how only Dubas got affected by the covid pandemic causing a flat cap. Apparently all these other GMs with RFAs that needed signing got a heads-up from the WHO so they didn't make the same mistake?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Welcome back from your annual hiatus.

Not sure what you mean, or why you're so interested in me, or what that has to do with the post you quoted. I never went anywhere.

 

[Honest M]

People have been talking about how Toronto Overpaid their Forwards.
Now I know Matthews Deserves what he's being Paid, but are Marner and Nylander that Overpaid?

Let's Discuss.

What o joke, a "pretend to be objective" post and claiming something as a fact that's not while arguing something else

Matthews is over paid , Marner massive overpay, Nylander fair/good value

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That's irrelevant. He's still very much a comparable, and we can adjust for any era discrepancies. There isn't exactly a big enough pool of similar players to start arbitrarily removing ones for no reason.

A contract that was signed over a decade ago in a different CBA is not a comparable, and those are far from arbitrary reasons for excluding. Especially considering Kane signed his during his 3rd year, and not afterwards.

His comparables were:

Aho 5 x 8.46M
Point 3 x 6.75M
Rantanen 6 x 9.25M
Tkachuk 3 x7M

The problem is you're trying to pay Rantanen more for his team's PP time, not his actual abilities, which is not how this works.

No I am paying for how many goals and assists he scored in the two years leading up to his extension.

Interestingly enough, Rantanen was a big reason the Avs were on the PP more than the Leafs. He drew nearly 50% more penalties than Marner during that period.

Not to mention that Rantanen had better linemate quality, and Marner PKed.
Marner clearly the better player, with Rantanen comparable with Kane. Their contracts reflect that.

Lol you think teams and agents are taking rookie year production into account when putting together a contract?

Here let me educate you a bit:
- Goal scorers get paid more than playmakers, there is a precedent for that.
- A player's rookie year has almost no impact on their next contract unless they regress from there


But if we are using their entire ELC production as an indicator, then Johnny Gaudreau is perhaps the best comparable.

Spoiler

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

Marner: 0.93
Rantanen: 0.87
Gaudreau: 0.89

And if we were to remove the noise of EN points, we'd end up with:

Marner: 0.90
Rantanen: 0.82
Gaudreau: 0.84

And their primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Rantanen: 0.64
Gaudreau: 0.68

And without EN...

Marner: 0.68
Rantanen: 0.59
Gaudreau: 0.65

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13
Gaudreau 2.76

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Rantanen: 1.58
Gaudreau 1.92

ES Goals/60

Marner: 0.86
Rantanen: 0.78
Gaudreau 0.97

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78
Gaudreau: 4.95

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15
Gaudreau: 4.01

PP Goals/60

Rantanen: 2.37
Marner: 1.56
Gaudreau: 1.65

Gaudreau was 12th in league scoring during his ELC
Marner was 22nd

Gaudreau had to carry the offense around him.
Marner was supported by Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander.

Gaudreau signed for 9.25% of the cap....
Maybe round that up to 10% for Marner's "penalty killing" and that's $8M. I think 9-9.5 should have been the absolute MAXIMUM Toronto was willing to pay. And now they are paying the price.

Marner is heinously overpaid.

 

[socko]

A contract that was signed over a decade ago in a different CBA is not a comparable, and those are far from arbitrary reasons for excluding. Especially considering Kane signed his during his 3rd year, and not afterwards.

His comparables were:

Aho 5 x 8.46M
Point 3 x 6.75M
Rantanen 6 x 9.25M
Tkachuk 3 x7M

Ranatanen smartly waited out Marner to sign his contract. So Rantanen wasn't really a comparable during "negotiation". I have to wonder how much more he got because of Marner. Obviously, Colorado did not go full Dubas. You know you have an out of touch GM, when other GMs convince their players to largely disregard your contracts...

 

[Garthinater]

I love bashing leafs--but lets look at the last 3 years

Marner 10.9
Stat line
196 games played 228 pts with +49 21.04 TOI
Matthews 11.6
190 games played 219 pts with a +31 20.16 TOI

People don't care about facts anymore.

Matthews is on a worse deal than marner.

 

[Garthinater]

I haven't been incorrect at all. You on the other hand...

You would have to be the most biased person in the world to believe this.

You have been wrong about the leafs, dubas, the islanders and Lou for 3 years now. Maybe its time you realized your "advanced stats" have very little value in the real world.

 

[AllDay28]

You would have to be the most biased person in the world to believe this.

You have been wrong about the leafs, dubas, the islanders and Lou for 3 years now. Maybe its time you realized your "advanced stats" have very little value in the real world.

Lmao what?

lightning and their analytics are gonna put a beating on the Islanders

Advanced stats don’t matter in the real world tell that to every team in the NHl that uses them. Holy shit

 

[Garthinater]

Lmao what?

lightning and their analytics are gonna put a beating on the Islanders

Advanced stats don’t matter in the real world tell that to every team in the NHl that uses them. Holy shit

No team solely uses "advanced stats" in making their decisions.

Also, teams have far better analytics than what any fan has access to.

I'm not suprised I have to explain this to you.

 

[34]

People don't care about facts anymore.

Matthews is on a worse deal than marner.

WTF? Matthews is the Best goal scorer in the NHL! You are 100% trolling with a BS post like that.

 

[Garthinater]

WTF? Matthews is the Best goal scorer in the NHL! You are 100% trolling with a BS post like that.

Points > goals.

He has a more player friendly deal than mcdavid. It's completely insane. Only getting 5 years for that cap hit is what messed up the leafs.

Add on that matthews has been disappointing in the play offs. Pacing for 62 points / 82 games and has been a no show in multiple elimination games.

It is interesting that both mcdavid and matthews are with the same agency yet only one bent the team over during negotiations.

Marner only got his deal because of what matthews got. At time of signing marner was our best playoff producer and had a 94 point season vs 63.

 

[34]

Points > goals.

He has a more player friendly deal than mcdavid. It's completely insane. Only getting 5 years for that cap hit is what messed up the leafs.

Add on that matthews has been disappointing in the play offs. Pacing for 62 points / 82 games and has been a no show in multiple elimination games.

It is interesting that both mcdavid and matthews are with the same agency yet only one bent the team over during negotiations.

Marner only got his deal because of what matthews got. At time of signing marner was our best playoff producer and had a 94 point season vs 63.

Goals >>>>>>> Points AINEC

McDavids secondary assists are trash. No one cares.

You take the best goal scorer in the NHL.

 

[34]

Points > goals.

He has a more player friendly deal than mcdavid. It's completely insane. Only getting 5 years for that cap hit is what messed up the leafs.

Add on that matthews has been disappointing in the play offs. Pacing for 62 points / 82 games and has been a no show in multiple elimination games.

It is interesting that both mcdavid and matthews are with the same agency yet only one bent the team over during negotiations.

Marner only got his deal because of what matthews got. At time of signing marner was our best playoff producer and had a 94 point season vs 63.

Goals >>>>>>> Points AINEC

McDavids secondary assists are trash. No one cares.

You take the best goal scorer in the NHL.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Marner was better than Kane throughout their respective pre-signing periods, and Kane got the equivalent of a 9.04m x 5 year contract under an 81.5m cap.

LOL

 

[Dekes For Days]

A contract that was signed over a decade ago in a different CBA is not a comparable

There haven't been CBA changes that would impact the contracts being discussed. There is no reason to exclude him as a comparable.

No I am paying for how many goals and assists he scored in the two years leading up to his extension.

There's more that goes into contract valuation than how many raw goals and assists somebody got over the past two-year period.

Interestingly enough, Rantanen was a big reason the Avs were on the PP more than the Leafs. He drew nearly 50% more penalties than Marner during that period.

By that same logic, Rantanen is a big reason the Avs were on the PK so much. Both Marner and Rantanan drew 16 more penalties than they took. Rantanen didn't contribute any more to his team's benefit from special teams. Players don't get paid for team stats.

Lol you think teams and agents are taking rookie year production into account when putting together a contract?

It's value that the team received, and information that provides insight into career trajectory, and how the players may evolve into their prime, though taking out the rookie year doesn't really change much anyway.

Here let me educate you a bit:
- Goal scorers get paid more than playmakers, there is a precedent for that.
- A player's rookie year has almost no impact on their next contract unless they regress from there

I'd love to see you try and substantiate either of these claims.

But if we are using their entire ELC production as an indicator, then Johnny Gaudreau is perhaps the best comparable.

Well, first off, that sentence is illogical. If we're concerned with production beyond the final two years of an ELC, Gaudreau is one of the worst comparables, since he did not play in the NHL in the first year of his ELC.

Anybody well-informed on post-ELC contracts would know that Gaudreau isn't a great comparable for pretty much anybody, since he was one of the most unique and outlier situations and post-ELC contracts in the cap era, regardless of which metrics one uses. Which makes your use of him, even over the other comparables you already identified, questionable at best.

Among other differences, he didn't start in the NHL until he was 21, so we'd be comparing entirely different stages of development. He also, unlike Marner, was a 10.2(c) RFA and was not eligible to sign an offer sheet, which means they were negotiating under entirely different situations. Marner was better than Gaudreau anyway.

Gaudreau had to carry the offense around him.
Marner was supported by Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander.

That's not true. Gaudreau had Monahan, and Hudler during his career year where he was 8th in league scoring. Marner didn't play with Matthews/Nylander, and only had Tavares in one season (in which he blew anything Gaudreau had done out of the water, at the same age as Gaudreau's rookie season). Through most of his ELC, he was with Bozak and JVR.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You have been wrong about the leafs, dubas, the islanders and Lou for 3 years now.

I haven't been wrong about any of those things at any point. Don't misrepresent people.

Maybe its time you realized your "advanced stats" have very little value in the real world.

Advanced stats are heavily utilized by successful teams and have quite a bit of value in the real world. We're not even talking about anything that advanced here. It's just not ignoring the obvious.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

WTF? Matthews is the Best goal scorer in the NHL! You are 100% trolling with a BS post like that.

You accuse that poster of the above, then go on to say stuff like the stuff below.

Goals >>>>>>> Points AINEC

McDavids secondary assists are trash. No one cares.

You take the best goal scorer in the NHL.

This is the stuff that gets Leaf fans so much grief from other fanbases. The over the top praise of Matthews and what he does best at the expense of ridiculously silly takes about players who are clearly superior to him.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

You accuse that poster of the above, then go on to say stuff like the stuff below.



This is the stuff that gets Leaf fans so much grief from other fanbases. The over the top praise of Matthews and what he does best at the expense of ridiculously silly takes about players who are clearly superior to him.

I can’t even start with him. Anyone who thinks goals > points are entitled to that. But that guy actually believes AM>CM. Most of us are wondering if Matthews can step it up in the playoffs and he’s over here screaming MCDAVID SUCKS.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Dekes really just said marner was better than Kane.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Dekes really just said marner was better than Kane.

I knew it! He spent his absence coming up with a new "model" and that's one of the first results it spit out.

 

[Goomba]

I wouldnt touch Marners contract with a ten foot pole

dude is 100% leaving for the free market, no matter where he ends his current deal

Matthews is too but hes worth the time you have with him

 

[unicornpig]

both overpaid, nylander half a million and marner 3 million. going off of RFA contracts.