How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[Volica]

Nylander is pretty fair market value.
I think a lot of teams would love a highly skilled 60-65 point winger tied up long-term for under 7 million; with some additional room for growth.

Marner... yeesh.
You hate to say that a guy who's in the mix in league scoring is overpaid, but man, I don't think he's worth 11 million a season. If he was in the 8.25-9.5 range, I think he'd be pretty damn close. He's not grossly overpaid, but he's certainly overpaid.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

In my opinion he's worth the money he's being paid, and thus isn't overpaid. It's that simple. Consistent ~95 point winger, still young and improving - no issue him being worth ~10-11M$ AAV. Maybe if you're particularly upset about his recent playoff shortcomings you might say it's 1-2M$ too much - but I think his playoffs get a bit overblown. None of Matthews/McDavid have earned their money in the playoffs just yet either. Even Mack has yet to be out of round 2 so far technically.

Badly negotiated contract means he should have gotten less at the time of signature, which is different.

Dahlin is an RFA today. If he signs for 11M$ AAV x 5 years - it's a very badly negotiated contract. His performances so far don't warrant that - and his RFA status limit his bargaining power. But if next season he wins the Norris and firmly establishes himself as a top 3 D in the league (as he has potential to) - it would mean he's become worth that contract/not overpaid, but it would still remain a badly negotiated contract because at time of signature Buffalo should have signed him for less.

That's the difference.

Well you are entitled to your opinion no matter how wrong it is.
Marner has been overpaid since day one and everyone knew it.
We can live with it because he's a great player but time after time not showing up when it seriously matters is unacceptable after taking a deal like that
He was worth around 9-9.5m at the time and not much has changed since then.
And now we're stuck in a flat cap for the next 4-5 seasons. how lucky are we? the cap % they took will never ever improve over the duration of their contracts with us.

This isn't a picking on Marner thing either. Matthews was little over paid as well but you see, with Tavares with a full NTC. if we HAVE to trade one of Matthews/Marner. would likely be Marner. prob best to just sit tight and hopefully next time we sign them to more team friendly contracts although I doubt it. I dont know what the answer is. our cap is f***ed for the next 3-4 years I assume

Your bad to badly negotiated contracts argument is stupid. a bad contract is a bad contract
thats the problem with sports today, everyone is being signed for potential. not for what they have actually done.
We overpaid Marner, plain and simple.
Should have been signed to a bridge before.
none of our kids should have gotten more than Tavares. it's just that simple.
I actually wanted Marner to sit the season out if he was going to be greedy playing the sit and waiting game.

 

[socko]

For Matthews: Eichel was the obvious comparable, big franchise center, Jack was signed for 8 x $10. Most would argue that Matthews is a little better player, certainly better goal scorer. I think Matthews is considerably overpaid since he took less years and considerably more money than Jack. This is the only one I can't completely blame on Dubas though. Matthews could easily get offersheeted for more than he got. Do you take the cap space and 4 first round picks for him? If it's Marner, my answer is hell yes. But Matthews, he's a special talent.

Speaking of Eichel: Marner for Eichel would make me very happy. If Eichel is proven healthy, I'll add to it.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Marner will figure it out in the playoffs. Hes too good not to.

 

[Pip]

Marner maybe a bit at this point. Nothing wrong with Nylander’s contract

 

[TeddyBare]

Restricted free agency exists for a reason.

Dubas would be wise to read up on it and take advantage of it.
Stop trying to be buddy buddy with the players.

 

[mac nylander]

Marner will figure it out in the playoffs. Hes too good not to.

Absolutely, he just turned 24 ..
I can certainly see him playing at the same level as Kucherov when he's 27-29

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[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Just sucks COVID created a flat cap and the window to run in small due to Matthews becoming a UFA in 2024

Either way, given his proven regular season success and lack of playoff performances id say he's about 2.0-2.5m overpaid.

 

[BCNate]

Nylander is fine at what he makes. 6 mil would be great value, 7 is ok.
Marner should be at 9
Matthews would be fine if it were an 8 year term. Not getting a bunch of UFA years makes it tough at the 3rd highest cap hit in the league.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Both were paid properly, consistent with post-ELC comparables throughout the cap era, as has been shown countless times.

Who were the comparables for Marner?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Who were the comparables for Marner?

Probably the RFA's who signed around the same time. Rantanen, Aho, Point, M. Tkachuk, etc.

Rantanen - $9.25 million, 6 years
Aho - $8.46 million, 5 years
Point - $6.75 million, 3 years
Tkachuk - $7 million, 3 years

 

[Breakers]

Who were the comparables for Marner?

Probably rantanen is an easy comparable, but he signed after Marner

Trailing 2 years of entry level
Rantanen
GP = 155
Goals = 60
Assists = 111
Points = 171

Marner
GP = 164
Goals = 48
Assist = 115
Points = 163

around a $1.7 million difference in cap
contract signed the same off-season
Rantanen signed after

 

[Sundinisagod]

Probably rantanen is an easy comparable, but he signed after Marner

Trailing 2 years of entry level
Rantanen
GP = 155
Goals = 60
Assists = 111
Points = 171

Marner
GP = 164
Goals = 48
Assist = 115
Points = 163

around a $1.7 million difference in cap
contract signed the same off-season
Rantanen signed after

As you said, Rantanen signed after, what comparables did Marner’s agent and father use to justify their demands? Matthews and Tavares I guess? Not that I veiw them as legitimate comparables.

 

[LeafGrief]

Marner is about 2m overpaid.

Nylander is fairly compensated and an excellent contract.

 

[LeafGrief]

Matthews and Marner are overpaid by about $1-$1.5 million per year. Nylander's fine, though if nitpicking maybe around $500k.

I don't think any of them are egregiously overpaid individually, though. It's more of a cumulative effect of each making around $1-ish million more than they should, combined with Tavares making probably $2-$2.5 million more than he should, so as a collective unit they're making around $5-$6 million more than they should combined.

That extra $5 or $6 million could have gone a long way to adding depth.

Hmm, interesting thought experiment.

Could the Golden Knights have better depth if they didn't have 12m split between their goalies? With a standard backup instead of Lehner, that's 3m in cap savings.
Could the Habs have better depth without Alzner's buyout, Drouin's 5.5m off the books, 2.5m for having an ELC instead of Byron?
Could the Islanders have better depth without paying Ladd 4.4m to eat popcorn all year, or without paying Komarov 3m?
Could the Lightning have better, errr, never mind.

The Blues-Bruins finale two years ago featured the Blues paying 12m between Alex Steen and Tyler Bozak. Good players, to be sure, but enormously overpaid and certainly within the realm of the 5-6m overpay you're quoting for the Leafs. And in the same series, the Bruins were paying Backes 6m for his services (he played 4 games that series with 0 points).

While it's true that the Leafs could have saved some cash by getting cheaper deals for Matthews and Marner, I think it's more than evident that teams do not need to have perfect cap management to go deep in the playoffs. You need good cap management of course, but the Leafs cap situation is honestly quite good and that's not what's holding 'em back. It can always be better, but it's not the depth's fault that the Leafs choked against the Habs.



Matthews is not overpaid.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Before the playoffs against the Laffs, I would have said:

- Marner is ok (can you argue with the fact that he was the 5th player with the most points in the league?)

- Nylander is overpaid


Post playoffs:

- Marner is overpaid: when the real hockey, the playoffs, began, Marner fold. The dude was made absolutly useless by Phillip Danault. Phillip freaking Danault made Marner (and Matthews) his bitch(s). Marner is a "Season" hockey player, not a "Playoffs" hockey player, and he won't win anything. The fact that he's paid 11M$ insure that the Laffs won't be able to get actual good playoffs performers, which I'm more than fine with.

- I have a new found respect for Nylander. Before the playoffs, I would not have let this dude near the Habs but he's one of the only Laffs who rose up to the challenge when it became tough. He was a clutch sniper and IMO, he's worth his tag price. He's not cheap but he's your secondary option when you need to put pucks in the net, when Matthews isn't working.

 

[dj Mahoney]

Neither has done shit,,,,add MATHEWS

 

[Orfieus]

playmakers are never worth $11m/yr, it is as simple as that

 

[Thenameless]

They're a little overpaid (which a lot of stars are) if we're only talking regular season. But, not worth it if we include playoffs.

 

[TopCheese]

Options suck.
Nylander is not over paid
and
Marner is incredibly over paid.
I thought 9-9.5m would be fair/high
his real aav is a complete joke.

1.3 million =incredibly overpaid I guess

 

[Arthur Morgan]

1.3 million =incredibly overpaid I guess

maybe not incredibly overpaid but he is overpaid.
Maybe we would have some success now if they left some money on the table for the rest of the team

 

[TopCheese]

maybe not incredibly overpaid but he is overpaid.
Maybe we would have some success now if they left some money on the table for the rest of the team

Agreed. He should be making around 9 mil IMO

 

[HarryLime]

Marner will figure it out in the playoffs. Hes too good not to.

Lol no

 

[The Kingslayer]

Lol no

I guess hes to old to figure things out then. This is all he will ever be. K.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Who were the comparables for Marner?

Rantanen and Kane are probably his closest comparables, and Marner had shown a higher level of production (and good PK ability) at time of signing his post-ELC contract, by an amount consistent with the difference in his contract.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nylander is overpaid by about $700k

Marner is waaay overpaid.