How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[njdevil26]

Leafs fans are insane. Before this season, Nylander was the topic of ever Leaf fan's trade proposals to get him out of town or just to bash him... Marner has led the team in points 3 out of the last 4 years... and because he's not put it together in the playoffs yet (like he's the sole reason the Leafs aren't getting out of the first round) he's suddenly worth half of what he makes.

 

[TS Quint]

This thread is kinda silly. At the time Marner signed his deal, the cap was expected to rise incrementally every year. Now that Covid froze the cap and the financial landscape has changed, it's silly to judge his contract with what we know in hindsight.

Yes, he is currently overpaid. Even with the expected rising cap, his deal was on the high side, especially for an RFA winger and it looks worse now, but Dubas couldn't have predicted a pandemic.

Rantanen is a pretty darn good compareable who signed the same year as Marner. This isn’t hindsight.

 

[Hoglander]

Marner is about as overpaid as Tavares. That's gotta suck, going all-in on massive contracts for guys that don't show up when it counts...

 

[Snowman]

Marner is very overpaid and Nylander is slightly overpaid.

 

[socko]

Leafs fans are insane. Before this season, Nylander was the topic of ever Leaf fan's trade proposals to get him out of town or just to bash him... Marner has led the team in points 3 out of the last 4 years... and because he's not put it together in the playoffs yet (like he's the sole reason the Leafs aren't getting out of the first round) he's suddenly worth half of what he makes.

Nylander deserved every bit of that criticism, this was him in a playoff game... Nylander pulled himself out of it and made himself into a hockey player.



Marner hasn't scored a playoff goal in 18 games, he has as many playoff delay of game penalties as playoff goals, he's a soft diva, his dad is a diva, and he's not worth anything close to $11.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Now lets look at Marners playoff production, oh wait it doesn't exist. Playoff performance matters when negotiating contracts, it's not just a regular season deal. You're expected to get it done when it matters. He's been god awful in the post-season and this is coming from someone who had his jersey hanging on my wall for 5 years. Ripped that shit off the wall this year, had enough of that lazy effort in the playoffs. He's a regular season great, playoff choker. That factors in big time.

He has 3 pts less then Matthew's over past 2 playoffs. Matthew's has 11 pts and MM has 8.

So how over paid is Matthew's then?

Leafs media and fans need to blame someone and it is MM

 

[socko]

Try watching the games. Not that Matthews was great, he wasn't.

Here lets do the playoff goal minus the playoff delay of game penalty formula:

Matthews: 13 - 0 = 13
Marner: 5 - 5 = 0

 

[34]

Matthews deserves every penny. Best goal scorer in the NHL.

Nylander is underpaid! On a great contract.

Marner is in the running for the most overpaid player in the NHL. He is trash.

 

[AvroArrow]

He has 3 pts less then Matthew's over past 2 playoffs. Matthew's has 11 pts and MM has 8.

So how over paid is Matthew's then?

Leafs media and fans need to blame someone and it is MM

Did you watch the games or no ? Marner avoiding contact every chance, flipping pucks out under pressure, countless turn overs trying to dance with the puck or just making stupid decisions with the puck. Marner was killing every rush opportunity that line had. When your winger plays as bad as Marner did, it effects the whole line. Could Matthews have been better ? no doubt, but if you watched the games you can clearly see who the weak link was. Marner was my fav player so no it's not just leafs fans trying to blame someone, it's leafs fans actually watching games and analyzing what's happening on the ice. Marner might have been the 2nd worst forward of the series behind only Joe Thornton, that's how bad he was. No effort, playing scared and not willing to play physical even in the slightest. And this is not an analysis of 1 series, it's his entire playoff career. 18 straight play off games without a goal now.

Matthews is probably 500k-1M over paid, but with his trajectory we don't mind it. He's probably gonna be the best goal scorer of the next decade.

Leafs media and fans actually watch leafs games and hold players accountable.

 

[super6646]

Only on the first page, but Marner in the 7 million range? Wtf are ppl smoking here ffs.

I am not a fan of the leafs, but give me a break. Maybe he should've gotten 9.5-10 million instead of just under 11, but he is damned good still. He's a 90-100 pt player the last 3 seasons. Long term I don't see how he would've gotten much less than now.

Never hated the Nylander contract unlike most ppl. Thought it was fair value from the start (maybe marginally more than I thought) and he's been good since.

 

[bobholly39]

That's exactly my point. Looking at the contracts themselves, the players are worth that money. The argument is that they were given these $ before they had to be. IMO it doesn't make the players overpaid, it just means they got this money before they should have solely based on the RFA vs UFA status.

So few people on HF seem to grasp this very basic logic.

I agree 100%.

Worth their money. But team should have done a better job negotiating at time (esp for Marner). Doesn't mean they aren't worth the AAV or overpaid.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Nylander isn't overpaid by enough to make a stink.

Marner is overpaid by a good $3m per year

 

[bobholly39]

Your argument makes no sense. you see That's why players are RFA and if they were to get the type of contract they would through UFA team would have to pay dearly.
so your value's make no sense. it was overpay Marner or he sits. or maybe if Dubas had balls to risk letting him sit Marner would have taken less. who knows

Either way you look at it. it's a terrible contract and he's overpaid and lets be honest whats the difference between overpaid and badly negotiated contract? so in the end it's a bad contract and the player in overpaid..... unless we're viewing this from the players perspective where let's say MacKinnon. Now that's a bad contract for MacKinnon but incredible for the Avs

In my opinion he's worth the money he's being paid, and thus isn't overpaid. It's that simple. Consistent ~95 point winger, still young and improving - no issue him being worth ~10-11M$ AAV. Maybe if you're particularly upset about his recent playoff shortcomings you might say it's 1-2M$ too much - but I think his playoffs get a bit overblown. None of Matthews/McDavid have earned their money in the playoffs just yet either. Even Mack has yet to be out of round 2 so far technically.

Badly negotiated contract means he should have gotten less at the time of signature, which is different.

Dahlin is an RFA today. If he signs for 11M$ AAV x 5 years - it's a very badly negotiated contract. His performances so far don't warrant that - and his RFA status limit his bargaining power. But if next season he wins the Norris and firmly establishes himself as a top 3 D in the league (as he has potential to) - it would mean he's become worth that contract/not overpaid, but it would still remain a badly negotiated contract because at time of signature Buffalo should have signed him for less.

That's the difference.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Marner by about $2.5 million. Same with Tavares. Nylander is fair value. That said I’d rather overpay star players like Marner and JT than plugs like Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle etc.
Imo the Leafs problem is not so much that they overpaid their stars but that their four highest paid stars are all forwards. Ideally you’d have two forwards, a D and a goalie in your top 4 like Tampa or some other mix between forwards and D.

 

[socko]

Marner by about $2.5 million. Same with Tavares. Nylander is fair value. That said I’d rather overpay star players like Marner and JT than plugs like Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle etc.
Imo the Leafs problem is not so much that they overpaid their stars but that their four highest paid stars are all forwards. Ideally you’d have two forwards, a D and a goalie in your top 4 like Tampa or some other mix between forwards and D.

Jack Campbell still has the best GAA in the playoffs and he's tied for the lead in save percentage. And he has a cap hit of $1.65. One of Kyle Dubas's absolute best moments as GM.

NHL Stats

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Jack Campbell still has the best GAA in the playoffs and he's tied for the lead in save percentage. And he has a cap hit of $1.65. One of Kyle Dubas's absolute best moments as GM.

NHL Stats

An extremely small sample size.
I’m not sold on Campbell as an above average starter given his age and prior history but I agree he wasn’t the issue this year and was a very good pick up. He has performed well.

 

[malcb33]

Rantanen is a pretty darn good compareable who signed the same year as Marner. This isn’t hindsight.

So you’re trying to tell me that this thread isn’t about judging Marner’s contract in the current economic landscape which makes a bad deal look even worse?

agree to disagree then, if that’s your take?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Marner and Tavares contracts are the ones more than anything that are tanking the Leafs. It doesn't help to have Matthews and Nylander making so much in connection with those two anchor deals, but in a vacuum those aren't too bad.

 

[WarriorofTime]

So you’re trying to tell me that this thread isn’t about judging Marner’s contract in the current economic landscape which makes a bad deal look even worse?

agree to disagree then, if that’s your take?

It was widely discussed when Marner signed that Dubas got completely played, Marner saw what Matthews got and demanded something similar and Dubas caved super quick because Marner was popular with the media.

 

[supsens]

At the time of the signing Nylander, Pastrnak and Ehlers were all considered comparable wingers. Pastrnak is obviously far better today and his contract is a bargain.

Pastrnak had stronger numbers when they signed. Nylander 20 goals 60 points in 81 games
Pastr 34 goals 70 points in 75 games.

 

[Shad]

Nylander’s is okay Marner’s is atrocious to the point that it’s almost unmovable.

 

[Ctrain2k]

That's exactly my point. Looking at the contracts themselves, the players are worth that money. The argument is that they were given these $ before they had to be. IMO it doesn't make the players overpaid, it just means they got this money before they should have solely based on the RFA vs UFA status.

Just because they could get those contracts as UFAs doesn’t mean it’s not an overpay, teams are willing to overpay any time there’s a superstar UFA.

 

[socko]

An extremely small sample size.
I’m not sold on Campbell as an above average starter given his age and prior history but I agree he wasn’t the issue this year and was a very good pick up. He has performed well.

I thought we had top 10 goaltending all year long, regular season and playoffs, for backup goalie money. I'm personally convinced he's an above average starter.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

People have been talking about how Toronto Overpaid their Forwards.
Now I know Matthews Deserves what he's being Paid, but are Marner and Nylander that Overpaid?

Let's Discuss.

Ehlers signed at 8% of the Cap at 6M x 7 years
This was Nylander's closest comparable at his time of signing. Where he held out to Dec 1 and got 8.7% on the cap at 6.96M x 6 years.

Nylander is slightly overpaid when you factor in Ehlers is signed to a year longer and is .7% lower on the cap.

Rantanen signed at 11.35% of the cap at 9.25M x 6
Marner signed 13.38% of the cap at 10.90M x 6

Marner is significantly overpaid when you consider he is 2.03% higher on the cap and he no goals in his last 18 playoff games. While Rantanen has produced very well in the playoffs.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Do people consider Matthews to be overpaid too? I know Marner may not get the contract he did in the current market but his PPG production in the regular season is only slightly less than Matthews. However, their playoff production is almost identical with Marner having 1 more point than Matthews in the same number of games.

I do not follow Toronto all that much but am curious why people are saying Marner is overpaid when Matthews or Tavares are not? Is it because Marner is a winger and not a C? Or does he just mooch points off his centers?