How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Hella

 

[DueDiligence]

Marner should be around $8.5 million per year. Matthews should be around $10.0 million. That extra $4 million would go along way for a top flight D man or two better talents on the 3rd line.

 

[malcb33]

This thread is kinda silly. At the time Marner signed his deal, the cap was expected to rise incrementally every year. Now that Covid froze the cap and the financial landscape has changed, it's silly to judge his contract with what we know in hindsight.

Yes, he is currently overpaid. Even with the expected rising cap, his deal was on the high side, especially for an RFA winger and it looks worse now, but Dubas couldn't have predicted a pandemic.

 

[mouser]

Marner is overpaid.

Nylander is producing reasonably to his contract now. The signing was still botched with Toronto essentially making Nylander “whole” after holding out into the regular season before signing, then delivering a mediocre 1st year on the new contract.

 

[gamer1035]

Marner very overpaid. Nylander slightly overpaid.

 

[Ctrain2k]

Options suck.
Nylander is not over paid
and
Marner is incredibly over paid.
I thought 9-9.5m would be fair/high
his real aav is a complete joke.

Yeah 9-9.5 is right where Marner should be making, his contract is ridiculous and he didn’t even get 8 years either. Dubas is a complete clown.

 

[Xspyrit]

Nylander about 1M too much and Marner should be making in the 6M range.

lol. This is 2021

I think you should spend a bit of time here :

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[lebdafor norris]

If you ask Paul Marner, he'll probably say that Mitch is still underpaid and that his boy should have gotten the 11.6 AAV Dubas special as well. I cant think of a more dislikable Leafs' team in the past 30 years.

 

[Breakers]

Marner is overpaid because of the situation they were facing at the time

you already had two 8 figure players, stop letting this kid, and his dad run the show.

call Darren Ferris out on his BullSh/t Switzlerland bluff and tell him to kick rocks.

 

[Zamknij kurwa ryj]

Nylander- not whatsoever.

Marner- a little bit at most. People are overreacting from a bad playoff series but forget he played to a 99 point pace ffs

Marner is ridiculously overpaid.

Look at what a guy like Draisaitl, a much better player in every conceivable metric, is making and then continue to make the argument that Marner is only "a little bit" overpaid.

 

[majormajor]

I'd put Marner's value at about $9m. That's after factoring in his playoff record. There are better players at that price but I think elite players are very often underpaid.

Nylander is about spot on his worth.

Marner is ridiculously overpaid.

Look at what a guy like Draisaitl, a much better player in every conceivable metric, is making and then continue to make the argument that Marner is only "a little bit" overpaid.

That's not a good way to do a comparison. Draisaitl could get $12.5m from several teams in the league.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I love bashing leafs--but lets look at the last 3 years

Marner 10.9
Stat line
196 games played 228 pts with +49 21.04 TOI
Matthews 11.6
190 games played 219 pts with a +31 20.16 TOI

 

[bobholly39]

Neither is overpaid.

People on HF constantly confuse "overpaid" with "badly negotiated contract".

Marner isn't overpaid because if he was UFA he'd get his AAV$ quite easily. Consistent 95 point winger easily gets ~10-11M$. Despite that - it was a badly negotiated contract since as an RFA team should have been able to do better. Doesn't mean he's overpaid.

Nylander - not overpaid, and contract is fine too

I know Lafreniere had a bad rookie season - but let's say instead he had a great one and swept Calder easily. If he got offered a contract starting next season of 8M$ AAV...is he over paid? No, because he's worth it. Is it a bad contract? Yes because Rangers should be paying him ELC money instead. Same idea with Marner here

 

[jetsforever]

I'd say Marner is about 1-2M overpaid, Nylander is fine (but on the high end of fine)

 

[jetsforever]

Neither is overpaid.

People on HF constantly confuse "overpaid" with "badly negotiated contract".

Marner isn't overpaid because if he was UFA he'd get his AAV$ quite easily. Consistent 95 point winger easily gets ~10-11M$. Despite that - it was a badly negotiated contract since as an RFA team should have been able to do better. Doesn't mean he's overpaid.

Nylander - not overpaid, and contract is fine too

I know Lafreniere had a bad rookie season - but let's say instead he had a great one and swept Calder easily. If he got offered a contract starting next season of 8M$ AAV...is he over paid? No, because he's worth it. Is it a bad contract? Yes because Rangers should be paying him ELC money instead. Same idea with Marner here

Is there really a difference though? Wouldn't an overpaid player have a badly-negotiated contract by definition? Or are we supposed to assume that everyone is a UFA and is in equivalent circumstances?

 

[bobholly39]

Marner should be around $8.5 million per year. Matthews should be around $10.0 million. That extra $4 million would go along way for a top flight D man or two better talents on the 3rd line.

If Marner was a UFA right now - he'd get contracts offer matching his current AAV in a heartbeat. Matthews too. They're both young and there's no real worry about them keeping up their production for duration of said contract either (if anything - odds are they still improve).

That's how you determine they're not overpaid.

Are they badly negotiated contracts? Sure maybe, in the sense that Leafs were negotiating with RFA's and could have done a better job at paying less.

Are they bad contracts For Leafs specifically? Definitely, yes. The way their salary cap is structured currently isn't great tied up all in forwards. Still - it's not that bad....Edmonton for years was dragging that horrible Lucic contract. I'd much rather pay top $$ for 95 point winger of Rocket winning/hart nominee center than be stuck with a bunch of bad contracts such as Lucic or those guys in Vancouver

 

[bobholly39]

Is there really a difference though? Wouldn't an overpaid player have a badly-negotiated contract by definition? Or are we supposed to assume that everyone is a UFA and is in equivalent circumstances?

I think there's a difference, yes.

If you look at it from today's perspective - in the present - is Marner worth ~10M$ AAV? To me, it's 100% yes. 95 point winger? Still young and potential to improve? Yes - he's worth it, not overpaid.
Same idea for Matthews, and definitely Nylander whose not even paid that much.

But if you ask if Leafs did a good job negotiation those contracts a few years ago - well, no, because they could have done better since they were RFA's.

Look at Mack. If he was making 12M$ today - is he overpaid? Absolutely not in my book. Among the very best in league, he'd be paid as one of the best. Not overpaid, fair contract.
Would it have been a horribly negotiated contract? Absolutely - because at the time he signed he still hadn't broken out, and in no way deserved 12M$ AAV (the ~6M$ AAV he signed for was more in the ballpark).

I think it's 2 different things

 

[Mickey Marner]

Nylander is on the high-end of that tier (Ehlers, Pastrnak etc.) of forwards, but still in the right tier. Marner is well above his tier (Aho, Rantanen etc.) of forwards.

 

[CatchyTune]

Marner is ridiculously overpaid.

Look at what a guy like Draisaitl, a much better player in every conceivable metric, is making and then continue to make the argument that Marner is only "a little bit" overpaid.

I mean if you use a really good contract as a comparable course it looks good.

I could do the opposite and say Skinner makes barely less at 9 million so Marner is a steal

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Neither is overpaid.

People on HF constantly confuse "overpaid" with "badly negotiated contract".

Marner isn't overpaid because if he was UFA he'd get his AAV$ quite easily. Consistent 95 point winger easily gets ~10-11M$. Despite that - it was a badly negotiated contract since as an RFA team should have been able to do better. Doesn't mean he's overpaid.

Your argument makes no sense. you see That's why players are RFA and if they were to get the type of contract they would through UFA team would have to pay dearly.
so your value's make no sense. it was overpay Marner or he sits. or maybe if Dubas had balls to risk letting him sit Marner would have taken less. who knows

Either way you look at it. it's a terrible contract and he's overpaid and lets be honest whats the difference between overpaid and badly negotiated contract? so in the end it's a bad contract and the player in overpaid..... unless we're viewing this from the players perspective where let's say MacKinnon. Now that's a bad contract for MacKinnon but incredible for the Avs

 

[LeafalCrusader]

Nylander should have come in at 6 million and Marner at 8.5. Dubas got taken to the woodshed in the contract negotiations.

 

[Voight]

both should be in the 7M range... so one is fair and the other one.... well not so much

Marner should be making Kevin Hayes money???

Also... for those saying Marners overpaid. I guess Eichel is overpaid then? They have produced at a similar rate over the last 3 years with Marner peaking higher.

 

[supsens]

Nylander is on the high-end of that tier (Ehlers, Pastrnak etc.) of forwards, but still in the right tier. Marner is well above his tier (Aho, Rantanen etc.) of forwards.

Pastrnak had a slow year at 1 point per game last year he had 95 points in 70 games the year before that it was 81 in 66.
I'm not sure what tier you think Nylander is in, but thats not it.

 

[Sens]

Marner should be making Kevin Hayes money???
.

RFA vs UFA

what did Barzal sign for?
What did Aho sign for?

 

[supsens]

RFA vs UFA

what did Barzal sign for?
What did Aho sign for?

Marner outscores AHo by 10+ points, that gets you at least +1 million in the NHL and Barazal's numbers are way behind.