How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[Wings4Life]

Marner is at least 3 million overpaid, if not more. Nylander is a little overpaid as well, maybe close to 1 million.

 

[Atomos2]

Marner was better than Kane throughout their respective pre-signing periods, and Kane got the equivalent of a 9.04m x 5 year contract under an 81.5m cap.

Stop man. Just stop.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I knew it! He spent his absence coming up with a new "model" and that's one of the first results it spit out.

1. I did not have any absence. Not sure what you're even talking about.
2. I've been very consistent in my methodology. There's no "new model" - just the same basic common sense I've been explaining to you for years.
3. The fact that Marner was better than Kane prior to signing their respective post-ELC contracts is true, regardless of which methodology one uses.

 

[HabsQC]

Marner probably has a 3 million overpaid because of his magician abilities. Never seen such an impressive disappearing act in the playoffs.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

playmakers are never worth $11m/yr, it is as simple as that

Especially pure playmakers. Panarin is a playmaker, but dude can score high 30s in goals too. Kucherov is an amazing playmaker, but also scores 40 goals. Marner this year was taking a step forward as he was on pace for 30 goals in the regular season but then the playoffs happened. IMO our stars both have the opposite problem. Marner can pass, but can’t shoot. Matthews can shoot, but not pass.

So to guard them, force Matthews into awkward parts in the ice, this takes marners pass option away and so he either fires a low percentage shot, holds the puck for too long and loses it, or tries to pass to Matthews still and it’s a turnover. He needs to continuously work on his shot this off-season to improve upon the regular season goal totals he had this year. Matthews needs to work on his playmaking, a 65g 35a, assuming Matthews hits those numbers, guy is easier to work against in the playoffs than a 50g 50a guy.

Marner needs to take another step forwards in goal scoring to be a legitimate shooting threat. He probably wants to be around 30-35g and 65-75a. Any more goals are probably too unrealistic to expect.

People will argue Matthews already can pass, but a career high PACE not total, but pace of 43 is not a good passer, that’s at best above average for a star, maybe even just average.

for example, draisaitl point totals from 2 years(50g 55a) ago is where Matthews production can head towards. If he can get to a 50-55 goals and 45-50 assists I think, that he will be much harder to guard as he will be more unpredictable.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Marner probably has a 3 million overpaid because of his magician abilities. Never seen such an impressive disappearing act in the playoffs.

8pts in 12games

 

[Pyrophorus]

Spoiler

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

Marner: 0.93
Rantanen: 0.87
Gaudreau: 0.89

And if we were to remove the noise of EN points, we'd end up with:

Marner: 0.90
Rantanen: 0.82
Gaudreau: 0.84

And their primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Rantanen: 0.64
Gaudreau: 0.68

And without EN...

Marner: 0.68
Rantanen: 0.59
Gaudreau: 0.65

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13
Gaudreau 2.76

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Rantanen: 1.58
Gaudreau 1.92

ES Goals/60

Marner: 0.86
Rantanen: 0.78
Gaudreau 0.97

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78
Gaudreau: 4.95

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15
Gaudreau: 4.01

PP Goals/60

Rantanen: 2.37
Marner: 1.56
Gaudreau: 1.65

Gaudreau was 12th in league scoring during his ELC
Marner was 22nd

Gaudreau had to carry the offense around him.
Marner was supported by Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander.

Gaudreau signed for 9.25% of the cap....
Maybe round that up to 10% for Marner's "penalty killing" and that's $8M. I think 9-9.5 should have been the absolute MAXIMUM Toronto was willing to pay. And now they are paying the price.

Marner is heinously overpaid.

Since his 99 and 84 pts seasons, Gaudreau has been out classed by him.

 

[HabsQC]

8pts in 12games

0 goals in 12 games

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Since his 99 and 84 pts seasons, Gaudreau has been out classed by him.

That's not really relevant to the point I was making. It's also wrong, but that's another story.

 

[Fatass]

Could Marner play centre? Would have more value (or closer to the cost of his contract) if he could play centre.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

Could Marner play centre? Would have more value (or closer to the cost of his contract) if he could play centre.

You don’t want to see a 6’0 175lbs winger transition to Center. I predict it would be ugly

 

[Pyrophorus]

That's not really relevant to the point I was making. It's also wrong, but that's another story.

Lets do this:
Gaudreau 19-20 58pts. Marner 67pts
Gaudreau 20-21 49pts. Marner 67pts again.

How am I wrong?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Lets do this:
Gaudreau 19-20 58pts. Marner 67pts
Gaudreau 20-21 49pts. Marner 67pts again.

How am I wrong?

Watch the games and you'll get an idea of why comparing them based on their point totals is silly. But here's a hint:

Monahan
48 points in 19-20
28 points in 20-21

76 total points (32 goals) vs 37g 107 points for Gaudreau.

Matthews
80 points in 19-20
66 points in 20-21

146 total points (88 goals) vs 36 goals and 134 points for Marner.

Gaudreau has been stapled to a boat anchor of a center, who was made even worse by injury. He was finally given the chance to play with a legitimate center after game #40, and he was 3rd in league scoring after that point. With Darryl Sutter as his coach.

First 40 games: 13g 14a 27p
Last 16 games: 6g 16a 22p

That's a 27g 28a 55p pace with Monahan and a 31g 82a 113p pace without him. Notice how much his assist numbers skyrocketed without Monahan.

Gaudreau would be a 110+ point player with an elite center like Matthews, and that's no exaggeration. The fact that he scored 99 points with Monahan as his center is literally unbelievable.

Have them switch teams and it would be night and day. Marner would probably struggle even more with Monahan because he's more of a playmaker than Gaudreau, and Monahan couldn't hit water from a dock this year.

I want to caveat this all by saying that I am and have always been huge Marner fan. A lot of Matthews success in the last 2 years can be attributed to Marner's elite playmaking.

But I mean let's be real, Matthews had 12 more goals than Monahan had points in the last 2 years (and 70 more points), not really fair to compare production from their wingers.

 

[BlueMed]

You could obviously argue that Matthews, Nylander and Marner are worth their salaries based on production relative to what other players in the NHL are paid. But when you compare their contracts to other young rfa contracts they are obviously overpaid (Point, Barzal, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Aho, Barkov etc).

The Toronto guys got ufa type money on rfa contracts that take them to ufa status fairly quickly which is just awful cap management by Dubas. I said it at the time that Dubas will pay for his idealism of "make it work for the player and his family" attitude towards the contracts. Its a cap world, every $ counts and even if they win one day he made it a lot more difficult for himself by being so idealistic about the contracts....

I never realized 7.5M wouldn't have worked for Marner and his family.

 

[BananaSquad]

Marner is like 2mil overpaid, it’s not that bad. Nylander is worth his contract. The guy that’s gonna be overpaid is JT.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Marner is like 2mil overpaid, it’s not that bad. Nylander is worth his contract. The guy that’s gonna be overpaid is JT.

"Gonna be"? He was overpaid the second they signed him to that deal. Tavares is not an $11 million player. At the time of his signing, he was the second highest paid forward in hockey, only behind a guy who's consistently in the running for the Art Ross every season.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

"Gonna be"? He was overpaid the second they signed him to that deal. Tavares is not an $11 million player. At the time of his signing, he was the second highest paid forward in hockey, only behind a guy who's consistently in the running for the Art Ross every season.

I agree. In my opinion Tavares is probably an 8-8.5 million dollar player, and should’ve gotten 9-9.5 due to being a ufa.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Marner isn't really overpaid, that much.
He's never taking a 7-8 million a year contract and you might get him at 9.5-10...
Nylander is correctly paid.
(Also, lol @ Matthews not being worth 11.34, guy is a Hart finalist, Richard winner and does well on takeaways too. Elite centres gun get payd.)

 

[Pyrophorus]

Many threads like this one, basically state:

...but they under-perform in the playoffs.

 

[Pyrophorus]

"Gonna be"? He was overpaid the second they signed him to that deal. Tavares is not an $11 million player. At the time of his signing, he was the second highest paid forward in hockey, only behind a guy who's consistently in the running for the Art Ross every season.

#1 in points on 20 teams
#1 in goals on 24 teams

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

#1 in points on 20 teams
#1 in goals on 24 teams

And? How does that counter what I said? He was paid like the 2nd best player in hockey and isn't even close to being the second best player in hockey.

If you're getting that much money, you should be in contention for the major awards (or at least racking up elite individual production totals) almost every season. Go ahead and show where he ranked league-wide each of his three years in Toronto. It certainly doesn't scream "second best forward in hockey!"

 

[Dekes For Days]

He was paid like the 2nd best player in hockey

No, he wasn't. That ignores how contracts work in multiple ways.

 

[TS Quint]

Marner isn't really overpaid, that much.
He's never taking a 7-8 million a year contract and you might get him at 9.5-10...
Nylander is correctly paid.
(Also, lol @ Matthews not being worth 11.34, guy is a Hart finalist, Richard winner and does well on takeaways too. Elite centres gun get payd.)

Matthews took more % of the cap than Crosby and only had to sign for 5 years. The Big 4 Contracts ran a train on Dubas.

 

[Fatass]

Matthews took more % of the cap than Crosby and only had to sign for 5 years. The Big 4 Contracts ran a train on Dubas.

Key thing is does Lou Lam give out those contracts to those guys? Of course he doesn’t". And he then has cap room to fill out his supporting cast.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.