How overpaid are Mitch Marner and William Nylander?

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Rantanen and Kane are probably his closest comparables, and Marner had shown a higher level of production (and good PK ability) at time of signing his post-ELC contract, by an amount consistent with the difference in his contract.

Kane's contract was 12 years ago, not a comparable.

Rantanen signed after Marner, but you'll need to show your math on Marner being the more productive player.

In the two years leading up to their extensions:
164gp 48g 163p
vs
156gp 60g 171p

You're right, one of those guys deserves 1.7M more than the other. But it's not Marner.

It's honestly laughable watching leaf fans attempt to justify such a massive overpayment to a player who continually lets them down in the playoffs.

 

[lottster14]

Based on Nylanders series vs the Habs, his contract is looking much better than Marners at the moment, but still slightly overpaid. Marner is ridiculously overpaid.

 

[TS Quint]

So the way the Leafs chose to allocate their future cap has nothing to do with how the cap WAS forecasted to rise?

Their current financial situation was compounded by covid as it changed the caps trajectory, creating the current economic landscape we're in. If they (Dubus) had known a frozen cap was on the horizon, Marner wouldn't have had the same bargaining power during those negotiations.

How can you be overpaid or underpaid without taking the economic landscape into account? The agents literally use the player's percentage of the cap to justify contract demands and "contract value" is measured against that same percentage of the cap.

Sure, but the cap is the same for EVERYONE. The Leafs are not special, sorry.

Regardless of the flat cap, if Marner got the Rantanen contract they would have another $1.653,000 in cap space.

 

[Riseonfire]

OP not including contract #s..... sad.

 

[TS Quint]

In a vacuum maybe. But in reality, if the Leafs took that 5-6M for added depth, they wouldn't have Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares.

To stay & play in the mess that is Toronto.......that's the price.

Sarcasm? Winnipeg, Edmonton and Ottawa sure don’t have sympathy for Toronto’s problems with attracting players.

 

[TS Quint]

Marner will figure it out in the playoffs. Hes too good not to.

I’m not a Leaf fan but I agree. I don’t fault Marner’s effort in the playoffs this year. It was misdirected and the results were .....not good. But he was out there trying to put the team on his back every shift. Once again, yes the results were not there. But he kept making the same mistakes over and over. Trying to take on the other team 1 on 5 constantly. Where was the coach? Doesn’t he have any team structure to remind Marner to lean on? Or is he too meek to have a talk with his stars?

 

[TS Quint]

Rantanen and Kane are probably his closest comparables, and Marner had shown a higher level of production (and good PK ability) at time of signing his post-ELC contract, by an amount consistent with the difference in his contract.

Kane? That’s ambitious. He got a bunch of that money for being a winner in the playoffs.

Did Dubas count the Cups Kane won after his big contract started? Once Kane and Toews convinced little Stan they were far better players than Malkin and Crosby the Hawks window slammed shut.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Nylander is a million underpaid and Marner a million over.

 

[AD1066]

Nylander looked like the only one with a pulse in game 7.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kane's contract was 12 years ago, not a comparable.

That's irrelevant. He's still very much a comparable, and we can adjust for any era discrepancies. There isn't exactly a big enough pool of similar players to start arbitrarily removing ones for no reason.

you'll need to show your math on Marner being the more productive player.

The problem is you're trying to pay Rantanen more for his team's PP time, not his actual abilities, which is not how this works.

Spoiler: Marner vs. Rantanen, pre-signing

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

Marner: 0.93
Rantanen: 0.87

And if we were to remove the noise of EN points, we'd end up with:

Marner: 0.90
Rantanen: 0.82

And their primary points/GP...

Marner: 0.71
Rantanen: 0.64

And without EN...

Marner: 0.68
Rantanen: 0.59

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production...

ES Points/60

Marner: 2.56
Rantanen: 2.13

ES Primary Points/60

Marner: 2.05
Rantanen: 1.58

ES Goals/60

Marner: 0.86
Rantanen: 0.78

PP Points/60

Marner: 7.19
Rantanen: 5.78

PP Primary Points/60

Marner: 4.69
Rantanen: 4.15

PP Goals/60

Rantanen: 2.37
Marner: 1.56

Not to mention that Rantanen had better linemate quality, and Marner PKed.

Marner clearly the better player, with Rantanen comparable with Kane. Their contracts reflect that.

Kane? That’s ambitious. He got a bunch of that money for being a winner in the playoffs.

No he didn't. He signed his post-ELC contract before he had done anything of note in the playoffs.

Once Kane and Toews convinced little Stan they were far better players than Malkin and Crosby the Hawks window slammed shut.

I assume you're talking about their UFA contracts for some reason, but what actually slammed their window shut the most was their defensive core deteriorating, and stupid moves like trading Panarin, not the fact that they kept Kane/Toews.

 

[socko]

I’m not a Leaf fan but I agree. I don’t fault Marner’s effort in the playoffs this year. It was misdirected and the results were .....not good. But he was out there trying to put the team on his back every shift. Once again, yes the results were not there. But he kept making the same mistakes over and over. Trying to take on the other team 1 on 5 constantly. Where was the coach? Doesn’t he have any team structure to remind Marner to lean on? Or is he too meek to have a talk with his stars?

Keefe is too meek, as is Dubas. Marner vetoed playing the goal line on the PP, way too much board work and physical play and he doesn't get to use his muffin shot. Marner won't allow Nylander to replace him on the top PP despite it being awful. Keefe follows orders.

 

[Bankerguy]

Nylander about 1M too much and Marner should be making in the 6M range.

2011 called, they're looking for you

 

[keglu]

Nylander contract is fine
Marner/Matthews/Tavares are all overpaid.

 

[TS Quint]

No he didn't. He signed his post-ELC contract before he had done anything of note in the playoffs.

I assume you're talking about their UFA contracts for some reason, but what actually slammed their window shut the most was their defensive core deteriorating, and stupid moves like trading Panarin, not the fact that they kept Kane/Toews.

Oh, you are saying Marner should have got about $7M in line with Kane’s 2nd contract?

 

[The Kingslayer]

I’m not a Leaf fan but I agree. I don’t fault Marner’s effort in the playoffs this year. It was misdirected and the results were .....not good. But he was out there trying to put the team on his back every shift. Once again, yes the results were not there. But he kept making the same mistakes over and over. Trying to take on the other team 1 on 5 constantly. Where was the coach? Doesn’t he have any team structure to remind Marner to lean on? Or is he too meek to have a talk with his stars?

Im not a leafs fan either. Far from it actually. Marner is still really young. I have no doubt if the Leafs continue to be competitive and make the playoffs that hes going to break through eventually. If he continues to struggle in the playoffs the next few years then its more then fair to criticize him and that paycheck.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh, you are saying Marner should have got about $7M in line with Kane’s 2nd contract?

Marner was better than Kane throughout their respective pre-signing periods, and Kane got the equivalent of a 9.04m x 5 year contract under an 81.5m cap.

 

[socko]

Marner would have to completely change his game to become a playoff guy. It starts with driving the net and taking physical abuse something he has never done. Even then, he doesn't have the greatest tool box, small, not great speed, weak shot. His contract is a mystery that only Dubas understands.

 

[WesMcCauley]

You could obviously argue that Matthews, Nylander and Marner are worth their salaries based on production relative to what other players in the NHL are paid. But when you compare their contracts to other young rfa contracts they are obviously overpaid (Point, Barzal, Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Aho, Barkov etc).

The Toronto guys got ufa type money on rfa contracts that take them to ufa status fairly quickly which is just awful cap management by Dubas. I said it at the time that Dubas will pay for his idealism of "make it work for the player and his family" attitude towards the contracts. Its a cap world, every $ counts and even if they win one day he made it a lot more difficult for himself by being so idealistic about the contracts....

 

[Subway Schenn]

Marner overpaid by 1.5-2M. Nylander is not.

 

[Il Stugotz]

They are significantly underpaid. Their surplus value is clawed away from them by a parasitical class of capital hoarders.

They both take up too much cap space from a competitive POV

 

[SFKingshomer]

Marner 2-3 million due to it being a RFA at the time that takes him to UFA. Dubas had all the leverage and handed it to Marner's camp.

Nylander was a bit overpaid at the time but it's become a decent deal.

 

[AngelDuck]

Nylander is underpaid.

Id say Marner is paid fairly, although the playoff woes have begun to become troubling

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I have no issue with Willys contract NOW... infact I feel his contract is perfect(maybe even slightly a steal).... HOWEVER if Dubas didn't cave as usual when Willy signed, his contract SHOULD have been even cheaper which would be huge now

The only problem I have with Nylander's contract was it was signed when a comparable already set the market price. Ehlers was signed to 6M at 8% cap allocation, and Nylander held out to sign for almost 1M more at 6.96M at 8.76% cap allocation even with 1 year less than Ehlers who also gave the Jets 7 years, where Nylander gave the Leafs 6. Or 5 1/2 since he slumped in that half year with 27 pts. This set in motion the Leafs other negotiations to be outlier contracts, as Dubas caved and agents went to school on this. It's inconceivable Matthews will be an unrestricted free agent in just 3 more years when his cap hit was 11.634M per. And Marner, that one looks hard to get away from. He's going to have to produce in the playoffs more than 1 goal in 19 games to make that contract to be perceived as palatable.

 

[socko]

Nylander signed a 6 year 45 million dollar contract or $7.5 per year. Since he had already held out for a 3rd of a season, the first year cap hit was $10.2 and the remaining years $7. He also showed up in January of that year, after the holdout, visibly out of shape. Not to say he looked fat, but his cardiovascular was such that his linemates were still going and Willy was sucking air. So basically they paid him $7 for 6 full years and only got 5 quality years out of it. To say I was pissed about the whole thing would be an understatement. But thankfully Willy has largely changed his ways and Toronto's patience in him has paid off.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Both were paid properly, consistent with post-ELC comparables throughout the cap era, as has been shown countless times.

Welcome back from your annual hiatus.