Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[AvroArrow]

These numbers are for the previous 3 seasons combined to exclude his current "down" season:

Regular season:

5v5:

McDavid and Draisaitl together:
xGF%: 57.90
GF%: 59.60

McDavid without Draisaitl:
xGF%: 58.62
GF%: 55.73

Draisaitl without McDavid:
xGF%: 48.05
GF%: 52.18

Rest of the team without them on a line:
xGF%: 49.34
GF%: 45.83



On the PK:

McDavid and Draisaitl together: (not enough of a TOI)

McDavid without Draisaitl:
Goals Against/60: 5.22

Draisaitl without McDavid:
Goals Against/60: 11.14

Rest of the team without them on a line:
Goals Against/60: 7.43



On the PP:

McDavid and Draisaitl together:
Goals For/60: 13.27

McDavid without Draisaitl:
Goals For/60: 8.22

Draisaitl without McDavid:
Goals For/60: 6.36

Rest of the team without them on a line:
Goals Against/60: 2.87


In the Playoffs:



5v5:

McDavid and Draisaitl together:
xGF%: 57.83
GF%: 67.28

McDavid without Draisaitl:
xGF%: 60.04
GF%: 48.22

Draisaitl without McDavid:
xGF%: 47.99
GF%: 33.41

Rest of the team without them on a line:
xGF%: 51.00
GF%: 42.12

(not really enough of a TOI for special teams but they are close to the regular season numbers)


Drai and McDavid are an elite combo, especially on the PP where they are one of the greatest pairings ever but I'm not sure how good he would be away from him. The numbers dont look pretty as they take into account his D ability (or lack thereof). Looking at all 55 forwards who have played 400+ 5v5 minutes the last 3 playoffs, Draisaitl leads the NHL......in goals scored against rate while on the ice. The Oilers goaltending situation could be playing a role too of course.

Going to be interesting how it all unfolds.

2nd in points over the last 3 years
8th in even strength points over the last 3 years
3rd in goals over the last 3 years
32nd in even strength goals over the last 3 years

55 even strength goals, for comparisons sake. Matthews has 91 even strength goals in that same time, McDavid 82, Pastrnak 82, Jeff Skinner 64

Oilers fans are way too defensive lol. Anyone that watches the games can tell you this, he's a PP merchant that benefits massively off of McDavid. If he was as great as they suggest, why can't he produce at that high level at even strength ? Or without McDavid ? Lol it's obvious.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Matthews - $11.64M
Tavares - $11M
Marner - $10.9M
Reilly - $7.5M
Nylander - $6.96M

Draisaitl - $13M
Seider - $9M
Larkin - $8.7M
Raymond - $8M
Debrincat - $7.875M

I'm going off TOR's current structure because it's what currently hasn't been working for them. You can adjust Matthews if you want, but it really doesn't make all that much difference. Comes out to $46.575M (DET) vs. $48M. (TOR) It's less than a $1.5M difference lol.

Obviously you can start subtracting on Raymond and Seider depending on term. I'm going with what they'd probably cost near on 8 year deals.

Sure but you’re basing this off of the current cap where for Detroitnits going to keep going up from now on

 

[nbwingsfan]

And DET's current structure of having zero elite players is working wonders as they stumble to another lottery pick.

I continue to be delighted by the arrogance of Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo fans with their terrible cautionary "don't want to end up like Toronto!" takes as if a team that can sleepwalk to top 10 finishes every season is somehow the worst case scenario for franchises that are consistently out of the playoff race by Christmas.

If Draisaitl would actually consider Detroit (skeptical) than you pay whatever it costs and figure out the rest later. Elite players, the type that can challenge for Harts are the toughest thing to acquire. You have Ben Chariot for $4.75M lol, you can afford to cut the fat from the bottom of the roster to make room for a talent like Drai.

Detroit is also filled with top prospects who will be filling out the bottom of their roster with ELC contracts.

Meanwhile Toronto is filling out the bottom of their roster with Ryan Reaves and Timmins.

2nd in points over the last 3 years
8th in even strength points over the last 3 years
3rd in goals over the last 3 years
32nd in even strength goals over the last 3 years

55 even strength goals, for comparisons sake. Matthews has 91 even strength goals in that same time, McDavid 82, Pastrnak 82, Jeff Skinner 64

Oilers fans are way too defensive lol. Anyone that watches the games can tell you this, he's a PP merchant that benefits massively off of McDavid. If he was as great as they suggest, why can't he produce at that high level at even strength ? Or without McDavid ? Lol it's obvious.

Does the PP not count in your mind? Is 8th in EV pts not good to you? Why are you only counting the last 3 years when he’s been a 100+pt player for going on 6 seasons now? Are you purposely leaving out his Hart and Art Ross season for a reason?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

And DET's current structure of having zero elite players is working wonders as they stumble to another lottery pick.

I continue to be delighted by the arrogance of Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo fans with their terrible cautionary "don't want to end up like Toronto!" takes as if a team that can sleepwalk to top 10 finishes every season is somehow the worst case scenario for franchises that are consistently out of the playoff race by Christmas.

If Draisaitl would actually consider Detroit (skeptical) than you pay whatever it costs and figure out the rest later. Elite players, the type that can challenge for Harts are the toughest thing to acquire. You have Ben Chariot for $4.75M lol, you can afford to cut the fat from the bottom of the roster to make room for a talent like Drai.

Weird... Current standings have Detroit out of the lottery.

But yes, I very much long to be like Toronto, who has the best core group the team has seen in 30+ years, has made it to the 2nd round once, and got swept out.

By the way, Detroit/Ottawa/Buffalo were all in the wild card race just before the trade deadline last year. They were in it well after Christmas. Try again.

Sure but you’re basing this off of the current cap where for Detroitnits going to keep going up from now on

On that we agree. To be fair it is below what Toronto was paying for their core 5 years ago, and barring another global shutdown, we shouldn't have to worry about another cap freeze.

 

[Tairy Greene]

Probably 8x 13.5, but if he has his heart set on a certain team I could see him taking a bit less. I could also see him signing a 1 year deal with Edmonton to line up with McDavid.

True. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.



In order to win, I think they have to separate anyway. They need to build a more balanced team. 2 superstars obviously hasn't worked. It's not going to work with both of them making double digit AAVs either.

Their prospect pool is pretty dire and the core is mostly aging, if Leon leaves they will have to do a full rebuild imo.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

11 for two years to make sure Oilers can re-sign 97.

lol so under pay him on his aav and only get 2 years? why should Draisaitl gamble on himself?
you all say he's not a product of McDavid and if that's true then why should he be underpaid for such a short term contract when he can be the next highest paid player in the league on the open market.

 

[olafsson]

He won’t stick around. Plenty of other teams who can offer the same pay, better lifestyle and better chance to win. See ya!

 

[ElPrimeTime]

2nd in points over the last 3 years
8th in even strength points over the last 3 years
3rd in goals over the last 3 years
32nd in even strength goals over the last 3 years

55 even strength goals, for comparisons sake. Matthews has 91 even strength goals in that same time, McDavid 82, Pastrnak 82, Jeff Skinner 64

Oilers fans are way too defensive lol. Anyone that watches the games can tell you this, he's a PP merchant that benefits massively off of McDavid. If he was as great as they suggest, why can't he produce at that high level at even strength ? Or without McDavid ? Lol it's obvious.

Shocking news... hockey players do better playing with great players. Why isn't this conversation ever brought up when talking about production from players like Matthews or Kucherov? It's like Draisaitl is the only player in the NHL that needs to put points without elite talent.

This year, he's still averaging over a point per game and his linemates last game were Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. But please, tell me why Draisaitl isn't allowed to be productive playing with good players when others can?

 

[YP44]

He will break the market again just like first go around

I agree his contract changed the market, I think it was more the Oilers GM at the time that caused it than Leon.

Clock is ticking in Edmonton

 

[GrumpyKoala]

yeah Im one of those people who dread the heat over the cold but that doesnt mean I wanna be in a place where it can go -40 or more. plenty of places that are more so on the cold side but not as cold as EDM gets

Alberta look absolutely stunning as a place, definetly on my bucket list but yeah, to each theirs own.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Seems like there are two likely alternatives:

(1) Oilers extend Draisaitl for one year for everybody to see what happens with McDavid.

- or -

(2) Oilers will offer Draisaitl in the neighborhood of $14M x 7.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Seems like there are two likely alternatives:

(1) Oilers extend Draisaitl for one year for everybody to see what happens with McDavid.

- or -

(2) Oilers will offer Draisaitl in the neighborhood of $14M x 7.

These are probably the two least likely outcomes.

I’m curious to hear why you believe the Oilers wouldn’t use their advantage of being able to offer the 8th year when every other team can only offer 7? When we’re talking contracts with double digit AAV’s that 8th year is a massive advantage, as any other competing team has to offer an additional 1.5-2M annual to be close in total contract value. I don’t see any scenario where the Oilers would offer a 7 year deal if they are going long term they are outbidding everyone with the 8th year unless someone does something stupid and goes to a 15M+ AAV, which could be entirely possible.

Even less likely than the Oilers offering a 7 year deal is Drai accepting a 1 year deal. With such a huge decision impacting both him and the team and given the close personal relationship between him and Mcdavid, I’m sure that McDavid will of outlined his intentions regarding his own impending free agent status before Draisaitl decides.

I’m guessing the most likely outcome is a shorter term deal between 2-4 years which coincides with the end of McDavids next contract. Gives him the chance sign his cash out deal in a higher cap environment. Either that or someone gets crazy offers him 100M+ over 7 years and he takes it.

I suppose a max term deal is possible to guarantee the most money on his third deal and for a player like that, he can pretty much force his way out anytime he wants if he wanted to. There will always be a lineup of teams ready to trade for him.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

I think NHLPA will push his agent to break the $14 million dollar AAV and McDavid breaks through the $15 or 16 million dollar mark. Getting ever closer to a potential $20 million dollar player in Bedard [likely when he turns 26 or so]?

I see some team like Arizona going big time hunting, lining up with new arena and finally taking the next step in this rebuild.

8 years x $14.25 million

I thought the Coyotes new arena plans fell apart

 

[VivaLasVegas]

These are probably the two least likely outcomes.

I’m curious to hear why you believe the Oilers wouldn’t use their advantage of being able to offer the 8th year when every other team can only offer 7? When we’re talking contracts with double digit AAV’s that 8th year is a massive advantage, as any other competing team has to offer an additional 1.5-2M annual to be close in total contract value. I don’t see any scenario where the Oilers would offer a 7 year deal if they are going long term they are outbidding everyone with the 8th year unless someone does something stupid and goes to a 15M+ AAV, which could be entirely possible.

Even less likely than the Oilers offering a 7 year deal is Drai accepting a 1 year deal. With such a huge decision impacting both him and the team and given the close personal relationship between him and Mcdavid, I’m sure that McDavid will of outlined his intentions regarding his own impending free agent status before Draisaitl decides.

I’m guessing the most likely outcome is a shorter term deal between 2-4 years which coincides with the end of McDavids next contract. Gives him the chance sign his cash out deal in a higher cap environment. Either that or someone gets crazy offers him 100M+ over 7 years and he takes it.

I suppose a max term deal is possible to guarantee the most money on his third deal and for a player like that, he can pretty much force his way out anytime he wants if he wanted to. There will always be a lineup of teams ready to trade for him.

That's why I said "neighborhood of" to indicate that the Draisaitl deal would be in that area, without pinpointing an amount or term. He could easily get an 8-year deal as opposed to a 7-year deal, but other posters above indicated that 7 years was more likely for the reasons they articulated.

Similarly, if the deal is a wait-and-see regarding what McDavid is going to do, that could likewise be two years instead of one, although I'm inclined to believe that at the end of the 24-25 season the Oilers will try to force the issue with McDavid so that they can at least get something back if McDavid indicates that he will be going elsewhere, instead of waiting a year and getting utterly nothing in return when he hits UFA.

 

[mattyboy]

$14.25m x 8

 

[SupremeTeam16]

That's why I said "neighborhood of" to indicate that the Draisaitl deal would be in that area, without pinpointing an amount or term. He could easily get an 8-year deal as opposed to a 7-year deal, but other posters above indicated that 7 years was more likely for the reasons they articulated.

Similarly, if the deal is a wait-and-see regarding what McDavid is going to do, that could likewise be two years instead of one, although I'm inclined to believe that at the end of the 24-25 season the Oilers will try to force the issue with McDavid so that they can at least get something back if McDavid indicates that he will be going elsewhere, instead of waiting a year and getting utterly nothing in return when he hits UFA.

There is a less than 0% chance Leon signs a 7 year deal with Edmonton because it makes absolutely no sense, and I haven’t seen anyone in this thread suggest that except for you.

And Draisaitl isn’t signing a “wait and see deal” he’s either signing for a set amount of time that him and Mcdavid have likely decided together that they’re willing to further commit to Edmonton or he walks in UFA. I would hope that they’d look to trade either him or Mcdavid if they signalled they weren’t going to re-sign but I don’t think they ever would do that, they’d ride them to UFA and right out the door. But it’s probably all moot because I don’t think McDavids closest advisor takes the job as the head of the team if Connor is going to walk away in two seasons and I don’t think they’re so shortsighted that they would make a move like that if they didn’t have McDavids future mapped out beyond two seasons.

 

[6ix]

His deal expires the same year as Marner. I’d rather pay him 13 than give Marner 12.

 

[Fishy McScales]

But how can Draisaitl be sure that the Oilers will be able to keep McDavid around?

They're friends and talk to each other?

 

[DKH]

Draisaitl has Boston written all over him. 14 mil x 7 when he hits free agenzy!

depends if Pastrnak gets his buddy Nylander to Boston this summer

Bruins will add one of Nylander or Draisaitl just depends which one

 

[AvroArrow]

Shocking news... hockey players do better playing with great players. Why isn't this conversation ever brought up when talking about production from players like Matthews or Kucherov? It's like Draisaitl is the only player in the NHL that needs to put points without elite talent.

This year, he's still averaging over a point per game and his linemates last game were Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. But please, tell me why Draisaitl isn't allowed to be productive playing with good players when others can?

It's brought up because he has fewer even strength goals and even strength goals per game than Marner, who's considered to be an elite playmaker and below average goal scorer.

It's brought up because without McDavid he paces for around 82-85 points, with McDavid well over 100.

It's brought up because the drop in his point totals in astronomical.

It's brought up because the eye test backs it up.

 

[GOilers88]

depends if Pastrnak gets his buddy Nylander to Boston this summer

Bruins will add one of Nylander or Draisaitl just depends which one

Curious as to what B's fans think a realistic offer for Drai might actually look like. Not that I think Drai should be traded, but stranger things have happened.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

They're friends and talk to each other?

Agree, but neither can predict the future. Katz will offer McDavid the moon to hang around, but McDavid may desire to go to an organization more likely to successfully compete for a Cup, or maybe just a place with a nicer climate or a bigger media market. If so, he can't know what opportunities are out there until after the 24-25 season.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

It's brought up because he has fewer even strength goals and even strength goals per game than Marner, who's considered to be an elite playmaker and below average goal scorer.

It's brought up because without McDavid he paces for around 82-85 points, with McDavid well over 100.

It's brought up because the drop in his point totals in astronomical.

It's brought up because the eye test backs it up.

And Marner plays with Matthews pretty much all the time. Put Marner with Foegele and McLeod and let's see how many even strength goals he scores. How many points does Marner average not playing with Matthews? Or Matthews without Marner or Nylander, or Kucherov without Point and Stamkos? These players all still get paid because the point is to build a team not just have one player trying to do everything.

I will also disagree with your eye test. There are times where Drai looks a little disinterested, but more times and not, he dominates when he plays. There is a reason why he is constantly ranked a top 10 player in the NHL.

 

[Frank Drebin]

He won’t stick around. Plenty of other teams who can offer the same pay, better lifestyle and better chance to win. See ya!

I'm not sure about that. 14m in cap space and a better chance to win, where are these teams?

 

[DKH]

Curious as to what B's fans think a realistic offer for Drai might actually look like. Not that I think Drai should be traded, but stranger things have happened.

If I inherited Edmonton Oilers and was told to trade him to Boston I’d want Swayman who’s legit and gold on and off ice,

I’d ask for Lohrei and Poitras - DeBrusk UFA but he’s from Edmonton

Again - this is assuming I found out I own them

If I don’t and Bruins I would pull Lohrei back

I don’t see how a deal could happen without Swayman

I sit row 2 on his right post first & third period so I see the goalies as up close as anyone and he’s a stud

Lohrei raw but going to be very good his ceiling is extremely high

If I was Dollar Donny I’d skip on Draisaitl go get local boy Noah Hanifin and figure out DeBrusk who’s a good player but incredibly streaky - he’s 6 M ish +|~ 500 K to me - not chump change