Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[Voight]

The dude is from koln Germany. He's used to cold ass weather.

For people used to cold ass weather, it might surprised you but a lot of us dread heat more than cold.

While I can "enjoy" vacation, you gotta pay me a lot more to move south than stay north.

Cologne Germany where the average temperature in January is 3 celsius. Not that Cold, especially compared to Edmonton.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

How is he signing 8 years with Anaheim?

Or is this just a situation where you don’t know what you’re talking about because you don’t even know the rules?

The poster was talking about if Edmonton cannot re-sign Leon when he becomes an UFA.

 

[TFHockey]

Actual value, 9.5M

McDavid inflation effect, 12-12.5M

Whatever team pays him that will regret it. Great player but massively over rated by far too many people, he's a star but not top 5 like so many suggest.

I guess that year he won the Hart when McDavid was hurt was just a fluke, huh?

 

[TFHockey]

If the Oilers can't sign him to a deal that works with their cap structure (and they hope to sign McDavid the year after) I suspect the Oilers will trade Draisaitl for a massive package. Maybe even a trade and a signed extension in place to ensure the new team gets to keep him their star #1C long term.

In that scenario Drai most likely gets dealt out east. He does not go to a divisional rival. Carolina would be a perfect fit, but perhaps other teams could step up and get pry him out of Edmonton.

A solid return would be the only way the Oilers could convince McDavid to stay, so it would be imperative Edmonton win the trade.

Holland will be long gone by then, so it will be the next GMs move.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

The poster was talking about if Edmonton cannot re-sign Leon when he becomes an UFA.

Ok I get it now.

Both you and him don’t understand the rules.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Deleted. Not arguing with somebody with the brains of a Pejorative Slured sheep .... but he thinks he's smart.

 

[McJedi]

How is he signing 8 years with Anaheim?

Or is this just a situation where you don’t know what you’re talking about because you don’t even know the rules?

Sign and trade. The Oil will need to get something for him. Maybe a 2nd round pick for his rights a few days before he hits UFA.

The Ducks have made offers to the Oilers for Drai as recently as this fall. They want him and have the cap space for it. To make him the highest paid player in the NHL for... a season... before McDavid eclipses him again.

 

[Sweetpotato]

An owner lacing up the skates for his club is not something you'd see every day.

Kudos this made me lol

 

[Mez]

he could prob ask for almost anything, depends on if he and McDavid want to stay together.

 

[bucks_oil]

Deleted. Not arguing with somebody with the brains of a Pejorative Slured sheep .... but he thinks he's smart.

Woooooosh!!!

Players can only sign 8 year deals with a team that holds their rights - this is a CBA advantage given to the 'home' team. As a UFA he can only sign 7 years with a new team.

A little modesty might have helped you here...

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Sign and trade. The Oil will need to get something for him. Maybe a 2nd round pick for his rights a few days before he hits UFA.

The Ducks have made offers to the Oilers for Drai as recently as this fall. They want him and have the cap space for it. To make him the highest paid player in the NHL for... a season... before McDavid eclipses him again.

That’s a possibility but I’d say the least likely of the possible outcomes, it basically comes down to if you know he’s not going to sign do you keep him for one more run and let him walk for whatever you can get for his rights or do you move him before the season.

I’m betting there will be clarity surrounding Draisaitls contract situation this off-season. My guess on how it plays out is they’ll try to get an extension done this off-season and if they are far apart or Leon signals he has no intention of re-signing then likely they’d probably look at putting together a list of teams he’d be willing to sign long term with and approach said teams about a sign and trade to maximize return while also opening the floor up to teams who want to take their chances they can convince him to re-sign in the year before his contract expires (he does have a 10 team NTC). It’s a tight needle to thread though because are the teams he’s going to want to go to going to have the assets needed to pull off a deal like that and it’s also a bit of a catch 22 because if a team has to gut themselves to get Draisaitl is he going to want to go to that team still? It’s definitely going to be a complicated scenario but if they can’t get anything done then it’s likely heading down your sigggested scenario of running with him one more year, and if he still doesn’t want to sign then trading his rights the offseason after the upcoming one before July 1 so a team can get that 8th year.

If I was betting on it, I don’t think it even gets to either of those points. My guess is that with Jackson switching from McDavids agent to running the team there’s already been conversations about both Mcdavid and Draisaitl mid to long term future and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an understanding regarding how much more time both players are willing to commit to Edmonton. It seems likely that hiring Jackson had a lot to do with securing Mcdavids future with the club and likely as a result Draisaitl as well. But of course until pen is to paper nothing is a sure thing, and Leon is eligible to sign an extension as of a few days ago so we’ll see what happens this summer.

 

[ManofSteel55]

8 years X 13M

McDavid signs for 8 years X 15M the following year

 

[AvroArrow]

I guess that year he won the Hart when McDavid was hurt was just a fluke, huh?

You mean the season 4 years ago where McDavid finished 2nd overall in scoring with 97 points in 64 games, where Draisaitl played just 7 more games than him ? Great example

 

[ManofSteel55]

The poster was talking about if Edmonton cannot re-sign Leon when he becomes an UFA.

They could still only sign him to 7 years though.

 

[ManofSteel55]

You mean the season 4 years ago where McDavid finished 2nd overall in scoring with 97 points in 64 games, where Draisaitl played just 7 more games than him ? Great example

It is a good example. If Draisaitl's success was "the McDavid effect", then his production would fall apart when McDavid is hurt. It didn't. He had 13 more points than McDavid with only 7 more games. I don't think its fair to suggest that it's all "The McDavid effect".

 

[McJedi]

That’s a possibility but I’d say the least likely of the possible outcomes, it basically comes down to if you know he’s not going to sign do you keep him for one more run and let him walk for whatever you can get for his rights or do you move him before the season.

I’m betting there will be clarity surrounding Draisaitls contract situation this off-season. My guess on how it plays out is they’ll try to get an extension done this off-season and if they are far apart or Leon signals he has no intention of re-signing then likely they’d probably look at putting together a list of teams he’d be willing to sign long term with and approach said teams about a sign and trade to maximize return while also opening the floor up to teams who want to take their chances they can convince him to re-sign in the year before his contract expires (he does have a 10 team NTC). It’s a tight needle to thread though because are the teams he’s going to want to go to going to have the assets needed to pull off a deal like that and it’s also a bit of a catch 22 because if a team has to gut themselves to get Draisaitl is he going to want to go to that team still? It’s definitely going to be a complicated scenario but if they can’t get anything done then it’s likely heading down your sigggested scenario of running with him one more year, and if he still doesn’t want to sign then trading his rights the offseason after the upcoming one before July 1 so a team can get that 8th year.

If I was betting on it, I don’t think it even gets to either of those points. My guess is that with Jackson switching from McDavids agent to running the team there’s already been conversations about both Mcdavid and Draisaitl mid to long term future and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an understanding regarding how much more time both players are willing to commit to Edmonton. It seems likely that hiring Jackson had a lot to do with securing Mcdavids future with the club and likely as a result Draisaitl as well. But of course until pen is to paper nothing is a sure thing, and Leon is eligible to sign an extension as of a few days ago so we’ll see what happens this summer.

That all makes sense. I know a few folks inside the Ducks org so I do have some inside info on this.

They are aware he's not going to take any discount to remain in Edmonton and is looking to be the highest paid player in the NHL. Anaheim is willing to make him that and have offered trade packages for him, but the Oilers are in no position to explore that this season now that they are back in the playoff hunt.

As you said... in the summer, esp if the Oilers bow out early again... he'll get moved in a sign and trade. This part is pure speculation by me, but I'd surely suspect other NHL teams would make Drai the NHL's highest paid player too so I doubt the Ducks would be the only team willing to do the sign and trade route. Drai's value next summer would be huge in such a scenario with one cheap year left on his contract. The Ducks have already offered Zegras+ for him.

 

[AvroArrow]

It is a good example. If Draisaitl's success was "the McDavid effect", then his production would fall apart when McDavid is hurt. It didn't. He had 13 more points than McDavid with only 7 more games. I don't think its fair to suggest that it's all "The McDavid effect".

Your good example is to take a season where McDavid had the 2nd most points and only played 7 fewer games than Draisaitl, 7, and say "look McDavid doesn't have an effect!" lmao stop it.

Just for comparisons sake over the last 2 years I am bringing up Willy here, because their even strength production is nearly identical. Willy has played 3 more games in this time.

Nylander and Draisaitl both have 89 even strength points
Nylander has 42 even strength goals, to Draisaitls 29 even strength goals

Nylander has played almost exclusively with John Tavares in that time. The difference in their overall points can literally be attributed to the insane amount of PP time Draisaitl gets and the amount of ice time he gets with McDavid.

Imagine you straight up swapped those two C's 1 for 1, what do you think happens to Draisaitls production ? What do you think happens to Nylanders production ?

Draisaitl is an elite player no doubt, but like I have said multiple times. He's in the category of guys like Nylander, Rantanen, Kyle Connor, Marner, and not in the category of guys like McDavid, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Matthews.

His production is heavily inflated because of McDavid. The same way Hyman is having career years. The same way a legitimate 4th line plug Patrick Maroon, scored 30 goals playing with McDavid.

Trying to suggest McDavid doesn't have an astronomical effect on his teammates and linemates is a straight up joke. No player in the league comes close to him, and for that reason yes we do need to address the McDavid effect when it comes to any player that plays with him.

If you seriously want to evaluate Draisaitl as an individual you have to look at what he can do when he isn't glued to the greatest player of this generation and a guy who can legitimately be the 2nd best player of all time when it's all said and done.

If you want to fool yourself and keep beating your chest about how Draisaitl is a top 5 player in the world and bla bla, then go right ahead. But everyone outside the Oilers organization can see it. It's back up by both the eye test, stats and even the analytic nerds.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

That all makes sense. I know a few folks inside the Ducks org so I do have some inside info on this.

They are aware he's not going to take any discount to remain in Edmonton and is looking to be the highest paid player in the NHL. Anaheim is willing to make him that and have offered trade packages for him, but the Oilers are in no position to explore that this season now that they are back in the playoff hunt.

As you said... in the summer, esp if the Oilers bow out early again... he'll get moved in a sign and trade. This part is pure speculation by me, but I'd surely suspect other NHL teams would make Drai the NHL's highest paid player too so I doubt the Ducks would be the only team willing to do the sign and trade route. Drai's value next summer would be huge in such a scenario with one cheap year left on his contract. The Ducks have already offered Zegras+ for him.

Im sorry but I take here say from a fan with a pretty big grain of salt. If Anaheim does have information pertaining to Draisaitl contract demands they could be opening themselves up to a tampering investigation.

Because of the high AAV it’s going to be very difficult for any team to match what the Oilers can offer for total contract value.
For example if the Oilers offer 13.5M x 8 making him the highest paid player in the league, that’s a total contract value of 108M. To beat that, any other team is going to have to offer an AAV of 15.5 which would beat the Oilers offer by 500k overall.

At these AAV’s being able to offer that 8th year is a huge advantage so if it does come to trading his rights even the bidding for that could get crazy. The Oilers would be wise to say here are the 5-6 teams he’s willing to sign long term with and try to get a bidding war going amongst those teams for the right to offer him that 8th contract year. It’s the difference between a 13.5 AAV and a 15.5+ AAV if you’re trying to compete offering a 7 year deal.

 

[McJedi]

Im sorry but I take here say from a fan with a pretty big grain of salt. If Anaheim does have information pertaining to Draisaitl contract demands they could be opening themselves up to a tampering investigation.

Because of the high AAV it’s going to be very difficult for any team to match what the Oilers can offer for total contract value.
For example if the Oilers offer 13.5M x 8 making him the highest paid player in the league, that’s a total contract value of 108M. To beat that, any other team is going to have to offer an AAV of 15.5 which would beat the Oilers offer by 500k overall.

At these AAV’s being able to offer that 8th year is a huge advantage so if it does come to trading his rights even the bidding for that could get crazy. The Oilers would be wise to say here are the 5-6 teams he’s willing to sign long term with and try to get a bidding war going amongst those teams for the right to offer him that 8th contract year. It’s the difference between a 13.5 AAV and a 15.5+ AAV if you’re trying to compete offering a 7 year deal.

I know the Ducks offered Zegras+ and the intention was to sign Drai to an 8 year deal. They were not thinking to wait until he's a UFA.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I know the Ducks offered Zegras+ and the intention was to sign Drai to an 8 year deal. They were not thinking to wait until he's a UFA.

I can believe the Ducks possibly made an offer of Zegras+ but I’m sceptical the Oilers would have interest in a package like that. If they wanted Zegras they would have drafted him. On top of that he’s having a poor season and seems destined to be a winger as opposed to a C, I don’t see much interest from the Oilers.

If they are sending Draisaitl to Anaheim with an 8 year extension the package is likely starting with one of McTavish/Carlson + Mint +

 

[DJJones]

Cap is likely to go 5% per year for a while.

13M will be a floor. Then add 1.5 or 2 for McDavid. Hell maybe 3

 

[capfit9]

$15.5 AAV - $16 AAV

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Wild how many loser fans fantasize about oilers leaving edmonton

 

[McJedi]

I can believe the Ducks possibly made an offer of Zegras+ but I’m sceptical the Oilers would have interest in a package like that. If they wanted Zegras they would have drafted him. On top of that he’s having a poor season and seems destined to be a winger as opposed to a C, I don’t see much interest from the Oilers.

If they are sending Draisaitl to Anaheim with an 8 year extension the package is likely starting with one of McTavish/Carlson + Mint +

The Oilers wanted Broberg and look how that turned out. Teams do reserve the right to change their minds on players post draft day.

The offer was Zegras + Flower (cap reasons) ++. Oilers disengaged when their season started to rebound.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

The Oilers wanted Broberg and look how that turned out. Teams do reserve the right to change their minds on players post draft day.

The offer was Zegras + Flower (cap reasons) ++. Oilers disengaged when their season started to rebound.

They took Broberg with the understanding that he was very raw and was going to be a Slower developing player, but that’s irrelevant to this trade.

Here at my top reasons why I think this trade discussion is likely not true (also I’m assuming by Flower you mean Fowler):

1) No matter how bad Oilers season got they were never dealing Leon in season this year. If he’s ever dealt it will only be in the off-season when the trade possibilities would be much more plentiful and would likely yield better value.

2) The Oilers don’t really need another 5M+ winger, and they definitely don’t need another 5M+ left shot dman.

3) the cap in from this trade would be over 12M while Leon’s cap out would be 8.5M so they’d have to create an additional 3-4M in cap space which would either create more holes or be costly to move Campbell.

4) And the biggest one, Cam Fowler has a 4 (yes 4) team no trade clause. I highly doubt Edmonton is one of those 4 teams and I doubt an American who’s played his entire career for one team in SoCal is going to a waive to play in Edmonton for 3 more seasons.