Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[Frank Drebin]

If I inherited Edmonton Oilers and was told to trade him to Boston I’d want Swayman who’s legit and gold on and off ice,

I’d ask for Lohrei and Poitras - DeBrusk UFA but he’s from Edmonton

Again - this is assuming I found out I own them

If I don’t and Bruins I would pull Lohrei back

I don’t see how a deal could happen without Swayman

I sit row 2 on his right post first & third period so I see the goalies as up close as anyone and he’s a stud

Lohrei raw but going to be very good his ceiling is extremely high

That seems rather underwhelming

 

[DKH]

That seems rather underwhelming

Since I see them live all the time I don’t do deal, but if you don’t I understand why you wouldn’t either

I would not deal Swayman, Lohrei, Poitras, and DeBrusk unless in Fantasy Hockey

Real world I would be very hard pressed to deal Swayman

Poitras is 19 and for Bruins has had games he’s been one of better players

Lohrei I been watching since USHL, at Ohio State, Providence - and was in Dallas visiting family and went to Stars - Bruins gene and he scored first goal of career our end 12 rows below

In the end only way Bruins getting Drais is FA

Much deeper prospect/draft teams than Boston and Bruins I can’t see trading Swayman- he’s entering Pastrnak & McAvoy territory

 

[Frank Drebin]

Since I see them live all the time I don’t do deal, but if you don’t I understand why you wouldn’t either

I would not deal Swayman, Lohrei, Poitras, and DeBrusk unless in Fantasy Hockey

Real world I would be very hard pressed to deal Swayman

Poitras is 19 and for Bruins has had games he’s been one of better players

Lohrei I been watching since USHL, at Ohio State, Providence - and was in Dallas visiting family and went to Stars - Bruins gene and he scored first goal of career our end 12 rows below

In the end only way Bruins getting Drais is FA

Much deeper prospect/draft teams than Boston and Bruins I can’t see trading Swayman- he’s entering Pastrnak & McAvoy territory

Does that clear cap for drai ?

 

[Fishy McScales]

Agree, but neither can predict the future. Katz will offer McDavid the moon to hang around, but McDavid may desire to go to an organization more likely to successfully compete for a Cup, or maybe just a place with a nicer climate or a bigger media market. If so, he can't know what opportunities are out there until after the 24-25 season.

So you think people say one thing to their friends and then do a 180 because they felt like it on something like that?

Glad I'm not your friend.

 

[DKH]

Does that clear cap for drai ?

Swayman 3.5
DeBrusk 4
Poitras & Lohrei 1.7 ish

Draisaitl is phenomenal and I’d love him just can’t see Bruins giving up Swayman- and I’m Oilers he’s absolutely gotta be in it

 

[VivaLasVegas]

So you think people say one thing to their friends and then do a 180 because they felt like it on something like that?

Glad I'm not your friend.

No, McDavid can't know what he's going to do until he sees his options and thus can't tell Draisatl what he is going to do no matter how close they are. And, yeah, I get the feeling that I'm better off not being your friend.

 

[Paddys Pub]

Drai will leave at free agency, finally giving the Oilers the cap space and freedom to build the team properly.
Unfortunately,
Management is going to botch it and spend a bunch of assets on bad ideas, mostly at forward, and they will be back in the same place again the next season.

 

[Fishy McScales]

No, McDavid can't know what he's going to do until he sees his options and thus can't tell Draisatl what he is going to do no matter how close they are. And, yeah, I get the feeling that I'm better off not being your friend.

You do of course realise McDavid will be offered a contract a full year before any of these options materialise?

Either he signs or he doesn't, probably him and Leon discuss this. But you expect them to do that and then for McDavid to have it in his character to stab Leon in the back because the weather is nice in Vegas or something?

 

[ElPrimeTime]

To me, it feels awfully Crosby/Malkin-esque. Most people were expecting Malkin to walk after his second contract, but he re-upped a year after Crosby.

It will be awfully telling though on whatever happens with Draisaitl in regards to McDavid. Imo, if Draisaitl walks, McDavid is gone. They either stay together in Edmonton or both move on to other teams.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Agree, but neither can predict the future. Katz will offer McDavid the moon to hang around, but McDavid may desire to go to an organization more likely to successfully compete for a Cup, or maybe just a place with a nicer climate or a bigger media market. If so, he can't know what opportunities are out there until after the 24-25 season.

Guy is a unicorn, he already knows what opportunities are out there because it’s all of them. Every single team in the league wants to add a 29 year old McDavid in free agency and any team that he wants to go to will do what they need to in order to create the cap space.

I know people like to gloss over the Jackson hiring because it seemingly runs counter to their fantasy of Mcdavid leaving but if you’re looking at it objectively that’s a pretty big clue of McDavids mid to long term plans. He’s got an owner willing to spend and he’s got his guy as head of hockey operations to carry out their vision and they’ve already got their coach in there and in the summer Holland will ride off into the sunset or be bumped up into some senior advisor role out of the decision making and they’ll pick their guy for GM.

Jackson has guided McDavids career since he was a boy, I just can’t see a situation where he’d make such a seismic decision affecting both of their futures if he was unsure about that future beyond 2 years. He’s left behind a lucrative player agent career, having to end relationships with clients and leave an organization that he helped build up. In my experience intelligent people don’t make decisions like that without a pretty clear understanding of the future beyond 2 years.

 

[oXo Cube]

I have no opinion on whether I think Draisaitl will stay in Edmonton or not, but I do think people who believe there are franchises out there that will offer him more money than the Oilers are out of their mind.

They'll pay any price.

 

[Confucius]

I have no opinion on whether I think Draisaitl will stay in Edmonton or not, but I do think people who believe there are franchises out there that will offer him more money than the Oilers are out of their mind.

They'll pay any price

 

[bucks_oil]

Honestly, it may not be just money chasing him out of town.

Two of the top 5 players in the world and they haven't come close to sniffing a Cup because management can't build a worthwhile supporting cast.

And it's not like the Leafs where their cap structure wouldn't allow it. Ken Holland, for some reason, inexplicably thought 39 year old Mike Smith was going to backstop a team to the Cups with Brett Kulak as his big TDL acquisition. And then his big plan to make up for his piss poor decisions was to sign a noted headcase of a goalie to a 5 year $25M contract...

The bolded is not really fair. Up until the Campbell signing in 2023, Holland had almost zero cap to work with. He was still dealing with Chiarelli's mistakes: Lucic/Neal, Sekera, Koskinen. He signed Smith due to past experience with him and because there were ZERO better options with the available $2M we had for a "backup" to Koskinen.

Kulak was a solid addition... and again, because we had nearly zero cap available at that deadline, and Kulak was making $1.85M.

Also... Holland's "big" deadline acquisitions also include Ekholm, Kane and Bjugstad that balance his misses (Athanasiou, Green).

 

[AvroArrow]

Drai will leave at free agency, finally giving the Oilers the cap space and freedom to build the team properly.
Unfortunately,
Management is going to botch it and spend a bunch of assets on bad ideas, mostly at forward, and they will be back in the same place again the next season.

Draisaitl is not and has not been the problem in Edmonton. If anything his play and contract allowed management to splurge elsewhere, they just did a horrific job at it.

They already had the freedom to build the team properly, just some really bad contracts and for whatever reason they never addressed the goaltending in the McDavid era. Get him a legitimate 1G and he may very well carry that team to a cup.

Oilers don't need help scoring goals, get them a guy that can consistently keep the puck out of the net and that's all they need.

 

[algernon]

You do of course realise McDavid will be offered a contract a full year before any of these options materialise?

Either he signs or he doesn't, probably him and Leon discuss this. But you expect them to do that and then for McDavid to have it in his character to stab Leon in the back because the weather is nice in Vegas or something?

I hadn't thought about a Vegas landing spot, but they have a proven track record of pulling out all the stops. Don't forget all the Private Jets with golf cart parking residential opportunities as well.

 

[bucks_oil]

Guy is a unicorn, he already knows what opportunities are out there because it’s all of them. Every single team in the league wants to add a 29 year old McDavid in free agency and any team that he wants to go to will do what they need to in order to create the cap space.

I know people like to gloss over the Jackson hiring because it seemingly runs counter to their fantasy of Mcdavid leaving but if you’re looking at it objectively that’s a pretty big clue of McDavids mid to long term plans. He’s got an owner willing to spend and he’s got his guy as head of hockey operations to carry out their vision and they’ve already got their coach in there and in the summer Holland will ride off into the sunset or be bumped up into some senior advisor role out of the decision making and they’ll pick their guy for GM.

Jackson has guided McDavids career since he was a boy, I just can’t see a situation where he’d make such a seismic decision affecting both of their futures if he was unsure about that future beyond 2 years. He’s left behind a lucrative player agent career, having to end relationships with clients and leave an organization that he helped build up. In my experience intelligent people don’t make decisions like that without a pretty clear understanding of the future beyond 2 years.

Exactly this, summarizing for those that need bullets:
* Best Friend = his winger, whom Oilers have cap to resign this summer
* Oldest Mentor, Family Friend and Agent = His new NHL POHO/defacto GM
* Fave Coach = New Head Coach of Edmonton
* 2nd Best Bud = in year 2 of 8 year contract with Oil
* 3rd Best Bud = signed onto contract this past summer

 

[NyQuil]

Actual value, 9.5M

McDavid inflation effect, 12-12.5M

Whatever team pays him that will regret it. Great player but massively over rated by far too many people, he's a star but not top 5 like so many suggest.

You would pay Nylander 11M but Draisaitl 9.5M?

 

[34]

You would pay Nylander 11M but Draisaitl 9.5M?

Drai is not signing for anything close to $9.5M. Try $12M-$13M. My bet is he leaves Edmonton.

 

[Paddys Pub]

Draisaitl is not and has not been the problem in Edmonton. If anything his play and contract allowed management to splurge elsewhere, they just did a horrific job at it.

They already had the freedom to build the team properly, just some really bad contracts and for whatever reason they never addressed the goaltending in the McDavid era. Get him a legitimate 1G and he may very well carry that team to a cup.

Oilers don't need help scoring goals, get them a guy that can consistently keep the puck out of the net and that's all they need.

Nobody blamed Drai for anything.
The post was nothing more than a stab at poor management.
IMO, they will lose Drai, then instead of using the new found cap space for good, they will blow it. Again

 

[McJedi]

Leon's current contract ends at the end of the 24-25 season. He is currently making $8M per year, with a cap hit of $8.5M. If hypothetically the Oilers were to renegotiate his contract at the end of this 23-24 season, what sort of deal do you think Leon would be able to negotiate?

8 x $14.33mm/per. He’ll be the leagues highest paid player.

Signs with Anaheim.

 

[LTIR]

8 x $14.33mm/per. He’ll be the leagues highest paid player.

Signs with Anaheim.

Too rich for Oilers ...
Hopefully Holland trades him before he hits the free agency for some sweet assets.

 

[eramosat]

You would pay Nylander 11M but Draisaitl 9.5M?

this is the correct type of discussion to have...relative contract worth amongst great players, where $1-2 million, or more (or less) in negotiation is extremely meaningful for the subsequent roster makeup.

If Leafs could somehow apply the brakes and NOT pay any of their best players the very top of their possible salary range, they would find their supporting cast that much better. do it once, it gets easier for the others....if not, well, haves and have-nots culture reigns. what young Leafs system player thinks they'll get paid in this org, I have no idea, but it's probably smart to get out as quick as possible. There's no money there for you, not even a taste.

As for the real value of Nylander, I don't think he's worth anything near what is being reported, it frankly makes little sense. But the NHL salary structure is a chess game, where overpays, and underpays, combined with certain levels of ability and UFA/RFA and the competition result in trends that can be hard to buck. Hence an 11$M Nylander suggestion.

Draisaitl. Wow. Very very tough decisions, for the player and EDM. Outstanding player, can go where he wants, and his current team could be as good as any team if the chips fall right. Very tough. Worth a ton. Drai on Toronto versus sending Nylander plus $3M of good players/contracts to EDM makes TOR a way better squad IMHO.

 

[Zenos]

The dude is from koln Germany. He's used to cold ass weather.

For people used to cold ass weather, it might surprised you but a lot of us dread heat more than cold.

While I can "enjoy" vacation, you gotta pay me a lot more to move south than stay north.

German winters are generally more like Vancouver than the Canadian prairies.
I‘m currently in Berlin (a cold city by German standards) and it’s nothing like when I used to live in Edmonton and Winnipeg.

But your point still stands. Warm isn’t for everyone.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

8 x $14.33mm/per. He’ll be the leagues highest paid player.

Signs with Anaheim.

How is he signing 8 years with Anaheim?

Or is this just a situation where you don’t know what you’re talking about because you don’t even know the rules?

 

[Voight]

There is absolutely no reason for Leon to sign for less than McDavid, that's not how sports contract negociation works.

Whenever Drai signs his next contract it will be NHL's highest if he wants it to be.

NHLPA will also push him to set a new bar. IIRC MackInnon didn't care to be the highest paid in the league but the PA wants their star players to keep pushing the bar up. Hence why he signed for 100K more than McDavid.