Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[Draiskull]

Your good example is to take a season where McDavid had the 2nd most points and only played 7 fewer games than Draisaitl, 7, and say "look McDavid doesn't have an effect!" lmao stop it.

Just for comparisons sake over the last 2 years I am bringing up Willy here, because their even strength production is nearly identical. Willy has played 3 more games in this time.

Nylander and Draisaitl both have 89 even strength points
Nylander has 42 even strength goals, to Draisaitls 29 even strength goals

Nylander has played almost exclusively with John Tavares in that time. The difference in their overall points can literally be attributed to the insane amount of PP time Draisaitl gets and the amount of ice time he gets with McDavid.

Imagine you straight up swapped those two C's 1 for 1, what do you think happens to Draisaitls production ? What do you think happens to Nylanders production ?

Draisaitl is an elite player no doubt, but like I have said multiple times. He's in the category of guys like Nylander, Rantanen, Kyle Connor, Marner, and not in the category of guys like McDavid, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Matthews.

His production is heavily inflated because of McDavid. The same way Hyman is having career years. The same way a legitimate 4th line plug Patrick Maroon, scored 30 goals playing with McDavid.

Trying to suggest McDavid doesn't have an astronomical effect on his teammates and linemates is a straight up joke. No player in the league comes close to him, and for that reason yes we do need to address the McDavid effect when it comes to any player that plays with him.

If you seriously want to evaluate Draisaitl as an individual you have to look at what he can do when he isn't glued to the greatest player of this generation and a guy who can legitimately be the 2nd best player of all time when it's all said and done.

If you want to fool yourself and keep beating your chest about how Draisaitl is a top 5 player in the world and bla bla, then go right ahead. But everyone outside the Oilers organization can see it. It's back up by both the eye test, stats and even the analytic nerds.

Draisaitl isn't glued to McDavid this season and is producing with his own linemates at ES. He will have his onetime shot on PP no matter who is PPQB.

He will command 12.5M+ per for sure as UFA.. Might not be worth it for Oilers with other holes to fill.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Your good example is to take a season where McDavid had the 2nd most points and only played 7 fewer games than Draisaitl, 7, and say "look McDavid doesn't have an effect!" lmao stop it.

Just for comparisons sake over the last 2 years I am bringing up Willy here, because their even strength production is nearly identical. Willy has played 3 more games in this time.

Nylander and Draisaitl both have 89 even strength points
Nylander has 42 even strength goals, to Draisaitls 29 even strength goals

Nylander has played almost exclusively with John Tavares in that time. The difference in their overall points can literally be attributed to the insane amount of PP time Draisaitl gets and the amount of ice time he gets with McDavid.

Imagine you straight up swapped those two C's 1 for 1, what do you think happens to Draisaitls production ? What do you think happens to Nylanders production ?

Draisaitl is an elite player no doubt, but like I have said multiple times. He's in the category of guys like Nylander, Rantanen, Kyle Connor, Marner, and not in the category of guys like McDavid, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Matthews.

His production is heavily inflated because of McDavid. The same way Hyman is having career years. The same way a legitimate 4th line plug Patrick Maroon, scored 30 goals playing with McDavid.

Trying to suggest McDavid doesn't have an astronomical effect on his teammates and linemates is a straight up joke. No player in the league comes close to him, and for that reason yes we do need to address the McDavid effect when it comes to any player that plays with him.

If you seriously want to evaluate Draisaitl as an individual you have to look at what he can do when he isn't glued to the greatest player of this generation and a guy who can legitimately be the 2nd best player of all time when it's all said and done.

If you want to fool yourself and keep beating your chest about how Draisaitl is a top 5 player in the world and bla bla, then go right ahead. But everyone outside the Oilers organization can see it. It's back up by both the eye test, stats and even the analytic nerds.

You're trying to suggest that Draisaitl's success is all because of McDavid. I'm not saying that the two players don't help each other, I'm saying to stop downplaying Draisaitl's success as being only because he plays with McDavid. You can try to put up all of your BS cherry picked stats you want, because we know that its just your Leaf Homerism coming out. You're just trying to tear down Draisaitl because you want that #2 spot for Matthews so badly.

Maroon and Hyman had career years with McDavid because they were/are his linemates. Draisaitl puts up the same numbers when he centers his own line, like he is now with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. Which of those guys is he leeching off of to get his points?

 

[keglu]

Draisaitl is an elite player no doubt, but like I have said multiple times. He's in the category of guys like Nylander, Rantanen, Kyle Connor, Marner, and not in the category of guys like McDavid, Mackinnon, Pastrnak, Matthews.

There are multiple tiers between Draisaitl and likes of Nylander or Connor. Try imagine Connor or Nylander winning Art Ross over McDavid or having higher PO PPG than McDavid

 

[AvroArrow]

You're trying to suggest that Draisaitl's success is all because of McDavid. I'm not saying that the two players don't help each other, I'm saying to stop downplaying Draisaitl's success as being only because he plays with McDavid. You can try to put up all of your BS cherry picked stats you want, because we know that its just your Leaf Homerism coming out. You're just trying to tear down Draisaitl because you want that #2 spot for Matthews so badly.

Maroon and Hyman had career years with McDavid because they were/are his linemates. Draisaitl puts up the same numbers when he centers his own line, like he is now with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. Which of those guys is he leeching off of to get his points?

No not all. I think Draisaitl away from McDavid is probably closer to a consistent 95 ish point guy, which is still phenomenal.

What stats are cherry picked ? I literally looked at their even strength points and goals over the last 2 years ? Not sure I'd call that cherry picked. I've given you my reasoning for that as well, it's more indicative of their actual production without being propped up by the PP or a generational talent.

Draisaitl puts up his insane numbers largely because of the the insane PP opportunities and percentage Edmonton has, largely due to McDavid.

IDC about Matthews at #2, put him at 5 or lower I really don't care. You're just downplaying how big of an effect McDavid has on Draisaitl.

How many games have we seen the Oilers go down by a couple goals early and Woodcroft would immediately throw Draisaitl on McDavids wing ?

Of course elite players will help other elite players put up points. Difference is McDavid isn't just an elite guy. It's crazy the extent some of your fan base will go to, to suggest that McDavid doesn't have a huge influence on Draisaitl lol.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

No not all. I think Draisaitl away from McDavid is probably closer to a consistent 95 ish point guy, which is still phenomenal.

What stats are cherry picked ? I literally looked at their even strength points and goals over the last 2 years ? Not sure I'd call that cherry picked. I've given you my reasoning for that as well, it's more indicative of their actual production without being propped up by the PP or a generational talent.

Draisaitl puts up his insane numbers largely because of the the insane PP opportunities and percentage Edmonton has, largely due to McDavid.

IDC about Matthews at #2, put him at 5 or lower I really don't care. You're just downplaying how big of an effect McDavid has on Draisaitl.

How many games have we seen the Oilers go down by a couple goals early and Woodcroft would immediately throw Draisaitl on McDavids wing ?

Of course elite players will help other elite players put up points. Difference is McDavid isn't just an elite guy. It's crazy the extent some of your fan base will go to, to suggest that McDavid doesn't have a huge influence on Draisaitl lol.

I had responded to you earlier in this thread, which you chose to ignore so I will ask again.

WHY DO OTHER PLAYERS GET TO PLAY WITH GREAT PLAYERS AND NOT HAVE IT WORK AGAINST THEM?

Matthews always plays with either Marner or Nylander
Kucherov plays with Point or Stamkos
MacKinnon plays with Rantanen

Yet you never see people question their abilities or skill. Instead, it's always "Draisaitl can't produce without McDavid."

 

[Sniper99]

maybe right now but it's going to get alot colder than that

Oh god not -25 windchills

 

[deleted user]

Oh god not -25 windchills

I remember it getting colder for longer as I grew up outside of Calgary. It wasn't uncommon for both our cities having real bad cold spells around now. Glad it's become more rare. And yeah, ppl get too whiney over the cold. Bundle up, it doesn't last at those bad temps for too long.

 

[Sparksrus3]

He will break the market again just like first go around

 

[Sniper99]

I remember it getting colder for longer as I grew up outside of Calgary. It wasn't uncommon for both our cities having real bad cold spells around now. Glad it's become more rare. And yeah, ppl get too whiney over the cold. Bundle up, it doesn't last at those bad temps for too long.

Sure, obviously it can get colder out here, born and raised here i've seen the -40 windchills. This winter has been fantastic though. Havent fired up the Stihl blower in almost 2 months now. Was outside with the dogs on Christmas Day with a hoodie on, People just like to walk around with a stick up their ass and dump on Edmonton when its nice place to live year round.

 

[deleted user]

Sure, obviously it can get colder out here, born and raised here i've seen the -40 windchills. This winter has been fantastic though. Havent fired up the Stihl blower in almost 2 months now. Was outside with the dogs on Christmas Day with a hoodie on, People just like to walk around with a stick up their ass and dump on Edmonton when its nice place to live year round.

Yeah, my sister is up there and says it's honestly not much different from Calgary weather. Very comparable. I like our weather.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

All part of the plan.
Sign Connor Brown and boat anchor him so he can be resigned on a down year.

Its beautiful...

 

[AvroArrow]

I had responded to you earlier in this thread, which you chose to ignore so I will ask again.

WHY DO OTHER PLAYERS GET TO PLAY WITH GREAT PLAYERS AND NOT HAVE IT WORK AGAINST THEM?

Matthews always plays with either Marner or Nylander
Kucherov plays with Point or Stamkos
MacKinnon plays with Rantanen

Yet you never see people question their abilities or skill. Instead, it's always "Draisaitl can't produce without McDavid."

I think you missed the point where I mentioned multiple times that McDavid isn't just an elite guy. He's significantly better than every single other player in the league, he's in a class of his own. That's why we have to acknolwedge it.

Secondly I literally pulled up both guys 5 on 5 stats to negate the McDavid "inflation" ? Why are you ignoring their even strength production ? Is it because when the Oilers are on the PP and Drai is with McDavid, he produces significantly higher points vs when he is away from McDavid and at even strength ? Because that is literally the point I am making that somehow you are still not able to understand.

Also I literally said I think Draisaitl is an elite player and probably a consistent 95 point guy without McDavid. Not sure how you interpreted that as "Can't produce without McDavid" Nobody questioned his skill. I'm talking about his inflated numbers due to McDavid.



So to put it simply the reason why "teammates" is brought up is

1) McDavid is the goat of his generation by a mile, it isn't even remotely close. He will inflate everyones numbers that he plays with and we can't pretend like it's not a thing.

2) The insane amount of PP time the Oilers get, as well as how efficient it is (Largely due to McDavid)

3) Even strength production is far more indicative of how impactful a player is. Also because of the McDavid effect + the PP, the best way to analyze Draisaitl as an individual, would be to analyze him when he's not with McDavid and not on the PP.

If we're gonna make this shitty argument that his numbers aren't inflated then we should also discuss how Hyman is a 35+ Goal and over PPG player. Probably deserves about 9M am I right ? Because teammates, PP and context doesn't matter!

If you wanna live in a fairy tale world and pretend like these things don't matter then go for it.

 

[rynryn]

I don't think the Oilers should pay him what he'd be worth on the UFA market unless they think there's nothing on earth that would make McDavid re-sign.

 

[666]

I think you missed the point where I mentioned multiple times that McDavid isn't just an elite guy. He's significantly better than every single other player in the league, he's in a class of his own. That's why we have to acknolwedge it.

Secondly I literally pulled up both guys 5 on 5 stats to negate the McDavid "inflation" ? Why are you ignoring their even strength production ? Is it because when the Oilers are on the PP and Drai is with McDavid, he produces significantly higher points vs when he is away from McDavid and at even strength ? Because that is literally the point I am making that somehow you are still not able to understand.

Also I literally said I think Draisaitl is an elite player and probably a consistent 95 point guy without McDavid. Not sure how you interpreted that as "Can't produce without McDavid" Nobody questioned his skill. I'm talking about his inflated numbers due to McDavid.



So to put it simply the reason why "teammates" is brought up is

1) McDavid is the goat of his generation by a mile, it isn't even remotely close. He will inflate everyones numbers that he plays with and we can't pretend like it's not a thing.

2) The insane amount of PP time the Oilers get, as well as how efficient it is (Largely due to McDavid)

3) Even strength production is far more indicative of how impactful a player is. Also because of the McDavid effect + the PP, the best way to analyze Draisaitl as an individual, would be to analyze him when he's not with McDavid and not on the PP.

If we're gonna make this shitty argument that his numbers aren't inflated then we should also discuss how Hyman is a 35+ Goal and over PPG player. Probably deserves about 9M am I right ? Because teammates, PP and context doesn't matter!

If you wanna live in a fairy tale world and pretend like these things don't matter then go for it.

These guys don't get it.
Last season Drai had 128 points and McDavid was in on 72 (or 56%) of those. Drai had 62 points on the PP and McDavid was in on 48 (or 77%) of those. Drai had 64 EV points and McDavid was in on 24 (or 38%) of those. So Drai only had 56 points without McDavid and McDavid had 81 points without Drai.

 

[Seanaconda]

All i know is I truly believe edmontons weather will have no effect on what happens lol.

 

[Mr Positive]

All i know is I truly believe edmontons weather will have no effect on what happens lol.

I agree. If there is an anti-Edmonton factor it would be about going to a bigger market out east. Both McDavid and Draisaitl are very concerned about their legacies. If they feel the Oilers are the best spot for them to get cups, then they stay. If not, I think they leave.

Right now they have to be a bit shaken when our management does something clueless like that Campbell contract (which was an awful gamble even at the time). But there is still a lot going for the Oilers. Imo how this season plays out will be the determining factor for how the negotiations go

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

7x14m somewhere else. sorry Oilers but I just dont see him sticking around in cold ass Edmonton

I see Drai going to LA to replace Kopitar as the 1C big man

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I see Drai going to LA to replace Kopitar as the 1C big man

LA is a good prediction, but he recently extended 2x7m I believe. so only a little cap saving there but Kopitar is staying in the mix. not sure if LA has the money to fit Drai but maybe I havent looked into their teams situation

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Most teams in the league gladly beat this offer.


11% of the cap is breaking the market?

At 11 million no state tax? No, not that many teams will be able to beat his take home income

 

[Arthur Morgan]

At 11 million no state tax? No, not that many teams will be able to beat his take home income

Drai will get more than 11m
caps going up. I would put money on Drai getting 13.6-14m becoming the new highest paid player. till McDavid

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Drai will get more than 11m
caps going up. I would put money on Drai getting 13.6-14m becoming the new highest paid player. till McDavid

That’s my point my man. 14 million minus 40% tax. That’s what ? 8.5 million take home? To compete with Dallas, Fla, TB or Vegas they would have to offer him like 17 million

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

LA is a good prediction, but he recently extended 2x7m I believe. so only a little cap saving there but Kopitar is staying in the mix. not sure if LA has the money to fit Drai but maybe I havent looked into their teams situation

So I had a look at Cap Friendly and you’re right. The Kopitar contract ends one year into Drais contract. That said, I see PLd being moved. Drai/Byfield/ Danault would be dirty

 

[Arthur Morgan]

So I had a look at Cap Friendly and you’re right. The Kopitar contract ends one year into Drais contract. That said, I see PLd being moved. Drai/Byfield/ Danault would be dirty

can PLD be moved? although im sure by this time he will ask for a trade anyways

 

[TFHockey]

While there is a fair amount of disingenuous people trying to devalue Draisaitl and his numbers, ignoring the fact that all players have better numbers when they play with more talented line mates, I also see a lot of "he's leaving Edmonton" because of [insert reason like the cold, taxes] and what I am really reading here are posters saying "man I hope he signs with my team".

 

[bucks_oil]

No not all. I think Draisaitl away from McDavid is probably closer to a consistent 95 ish point guy, which is still phenomenal.

What stats are cherry picked ? I literally looked at their even strength points and goals over the last 2 years ? Not sure I'd call that cherry picked. I've given you my reasoning for that as well, it's more indicative of their actual production without being propped up by the PP or a generational talent.

Draisaitl puts up his insane numbers largely because of the the insane PP opportunities and percentage Edmonton has, largely due to McDavid.

IDC about Matthews at #2, put him at 5 or lower I really don't care. You're just downplaying how big of an effect McDavid has on Draisaitl.

How many games have we seen the Oilers go down by a couple goals early and Woodcroft would immediately throw Draisaitl on McDavids wing ?

Of course elite players will help other elite players put up points. Difference is McDavid isn't just an elite guy. It's crazy the extent some of your fan base will go to, to suggest that McDavid doesn't have a huge influence on Draisaitl lol.

Draisaitl has no influence on our power play? It's largely due to McDavid? Can we look at these numbers?

NHL All-Time Power-Play Points per 60 Leaders

NHL players who hold the all-time record for the highest power-play points per 60 in NHL. All-time power-play points per 60 leaders for NHL players.

www.quanthockey.com

You might notice that Draisaitl is #3 ALL TIME in PP/60. Also... take a look at #24 on this ALL TIME list... and his PP/60 numbers went DOWN since McD and Drai joined his power play, mostly because he's not the primary QB anymore (fewer touches). If you watch our power play, you'd know that it clicks at a historical level because all three of these guys are historically good pp QBs and so at any moment we have three guys around which our point of attack can pivot. That's incredibly difficult to defend... especially when you throw in.....

How many highlight reel one-timers have you witnessed from Draisaitl where his feet are at or BELOW the goal line and standing ten feet wide of the net? Do you think it was solely McD's idea to feed him pucks in that (way out of position) position, or perhaps Draisaitl's confidence in making that unexpected/innovative shot played a role there?

And finally Draisaitl has a huge positive impact on McDavid as well, so can we just put a stop to this nonsense?