With all due respect, and I really genuinely mean that, advanced stats like corsi and expected goals for are complete garabge IMO. My argument isn't a great player will influence another great player.
My argument is a real generational player who can legitimately have a case for being the 2nd best player of all time, by the time he's retired, will HEAVILY inflate the numbers of everyone around him. Patrick Maroon, Hyman, Tyson Barrie are all examples of this, along with Draisaitl. He's just that great.
Also your point about the other linemates is fair. But those linemates don't have an influence anywhere near as big as a guy like McDavid, but it is a very reasonable point.
I'll just ask you a simple question, how good is McDavid really ? How many more points do his teammates score because of him in your opinion ? Does he create an extra 10 points ? 15 points ? 20 points ? More ? Fewer ? If he was to be replaced with an average-good 1C, how much do the rest of the Oilers point totals change, if at all ?
Assume he was swapped 1 for 1 for a guy like say, Brayden Point, Petterson or Stutzle for example. Does Draisaitls production go up or down ? And by how much ? How much does it effect the PP efficiency ?
First I agree with you about advanced stats... they can paint a false picture. I wasn't pasting that chart to show advanced stats (in fact I cut if off before it got to xGF columns). I was just too lazy to snip it down to what I care most about, which is...
Goals are goals and we decide games based on goals for and goals against
in all game states.
Even if I accept the premise that we should only look at 5v5 as "pure". I don't by the way, the only reason it makes sense to look at 5v5 is to compare a guy with powerplay time to a guy without power play time... so for top-end offensive players, I think it's somewhat irrelevant, or rather less important than the totality of their contribution...
but even if I did, Draisaitl is no slouch at 5v5 whenever he's been given decent line mates to work with. He is, at least at 5v5, one of the better playmakers in the game (whereas on the PP he adopts the shooter role)... in my opinion on a talent level similar to Thornton & Foppa. Not Marner, O'Connor etc as you suggest. In fact I think he's quite easily the 4th best Oiler forward of all time (and I saw them all)... ahead of Kurri, Anderson, Nilsson, Weight, TIkkanen, etc. Messier honestly only gets the nod based on defensive play and mean streak.
however if you put him with low/no-skill forwards, they aren't going to convert and he's not going to carry the goal-share that you'd hope. I think that is true of any playmaker.
And yes, McDavid is different, he's especially noticeably different when he doesn't have talent to work with. In fact if you've watched as many Oiler games as I have... roughly 65 per year since 2009 (thank you NHL package), that is what would immediately jump out at you. McDavid
doesn't need anyone special on his line to succeed. He's a singular talent.
but your corollary argument does not follow... the fact that McD doesn't need any talent, doesn't mean that he's automatically disproportionately boosting
every player he plays with. Lessor talents? Sure, that's obvious. But guys as talented as Draisaitl? At that point it's a synergistic relationship and any of the numbers I've seen show that... McD benefits and Drai benefits... in some years it shows Drai benefits more, in other years it shows McD benefits more...
... and when you dig into that, what you'd see is that in years where Drai was given the better line mates, his numbers with McD didn't improve that much (or rather, looked already very good without him). The reverse is also true, however to a lessor extend, since McD produces off the rush without making use of his teammates.
Play them with scrubs and McD comes out way ahead, scrubs getting the opportunity to knock in a rebound if they get up the ice in time... whereas Drai doesn't have the same pace through the neutral zone, so he's not dragging those scrubs along with him the same way as McD does.
However played as a true #1 and surrounded with talent, I don't think McD benefits his line mates any more than Drai does. McD, with his skating will increase the volume of chances, but Drai controls and distributes the puck better... played with above average line mates, Drai will extract more from those guys.
To answer your question with hypothetical stats:
McD without Drai (playing with pretty much anyone) = 135 points, 55-60 GF%
Drai without McD (playing with RNH + Hyman or Kane) = 120 points, 55-60 GF%
McDrai together full time (has never happened, but) = McD 160 points, Drai 145 points, 60-65 GF%
So yeah, McD is the better player, but we are talking about two 1st ballot HoFers IMO and both would see a similar bump in production if the only thing that mattered was playing together. Thankfully our coaches have done their best (within the constraints given by the GMs) to spread that wealth.
