Value of: Draisaitl New Contract

[Sweetpotato]

I don't think he'll take any sort of discount. Despite the fact that his contract turned into a bargain he didn't take any discount last time, he signed for well above his comparables at the time. Nobody else took a discount except McDavid (who probably regrets it) and maybe RNH (but he got term).


Why would the NHLPA care?
The players get 50% regardless of what the biggest contract is. If one player takes a huge chunk it just lowers what everyone else gets.

The NHLPA advocates for the players. The more Draisaitl and McDavid get paid the more everyone else does because it raises the "max". Many people have gone on record saying Gretzky getting a monster contract in LA helped players get more later down the line, it's been confirmed that during contract talks between McDavid and the Oilers for his current contract the PA reached out to Connor to take more as it was rumored he wanted something to mirror his number(9.7/year was the guess).

If McDavid takes 13, no GM is giving his player 13 a year soon after; but, if McDavid takes 15 then other players can ask for 14.

As for the actual question, it's hard to tell but my guess is there will be no discounts. 13.5 x 8 seems right. McDavid comes in at 15 x 8.

It goes one of 2 ways if they stay. They realize there's no guarantee of success so they don't take a discount or they take a discount to push for a better team around them.

 

[DekeyPete]

7 years 11 million aav. In Dallas

 

[innitfam]

Actual value, 9.5M

McDavid inflation effect, 12-12.5M

Whatever team pays him that will regret it. Great player but massively over rated by far too many people, he's a star but not top 5 like so many suggest.

Lol so he's worth the same as Seth Jones and Darnell Nurse? After 3 50 goal years, 4 100 point seasons, a Hart, Art and Lindsay? All this deserves a measly 1M raise? By percentage that's around the rate of inflation since 2017. Absurd.

 

[34]

7x14m somewhere else. sorry Oilers but I just dont see him sticking around in cold ass Edmonton

The biggest question is where will his next contract be. Very good chance it is not Edmonton. His AAV likely around the $12-$13M range. He has not looked good at all this season but he will still get paid.

What does Edmonton look like in 2 years with McDavid and Leon out.

 

[Bobby9]

I think 11.5-12.5 is where he lands.

 

[wmupreds]

One day people here will figure out how to spell Draisaitl

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I think 11.5-12.5 is where he lands.

no way, he's for sure going to be the next highest paid player in the league. 100%

 

[KevinRedkey]

My prediction:
Draisaitl: 12.875 (103.000 over 8yrs)
McDavid: 15.625 (125.000 over 8yrs)

Draisaitl's contract becomes the biggest sub-12yr deal of all-time.
McDavid's deal becomes the biggest contract of all-time, period.

 

[Three On Zero]

A lot hinges on how Edmonton performs this year.

If they can recover and make a deep run, I think he shaves a bit off and sticks with Edmonton

If they struggle he will ask for more to stay.


Draisaitls signing is also the precursor to see if McDavid will stay or test free agency

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The NHLPA advocates for the players. The more Draisaitl and McDavid get paid the more everyone else does because it raises the "max". Many people have gone on record saying Gretzky getting a monster contract in LA helped players get more later down the line, it's been confirmed that during contract talks between McDavid and the Oilers for his current contract the PA reached out to Connor to take more as it was rumored he wanted something to mirror his number(9.7/year was the guess).

If McDavid takes 13, no GM is giving his player 13 a year soon after; but, if McDavid takes 15 then other players can ask for 14.

As for the actual question, it's hard to tell but my guess is there will be no discounts. 13.5 x 8 seems right. McDavid comes in at 15 x 8.

It goes one of 2 ways if they stay. They realize there's no guarantee of success so they don't take a discount or they take a discount to push for a better team around them.

This is a solid point to go along with mine as well. Thanks!
Raising ceiling helps the depth/2nd tier players.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Leon's current contract ends at the end of the 24-25 season. He is currently making $8M per year, with a cap hit of $8.5M. If hypothetically the Oilers were to renegotiate his contract at the end of this 23-24 season, what sort of deal do you think Leon would be able to negotiate?

How about 6 x 11 mill. All as a bonus except 1 mill each year

 

[Coffey]

maybe right now but it's going to get alot colder than that

Not if climate change has anything to say about that!

 

[La Bamba]

14.5 for 8 years but I hope it’s less than that

 

[Sasha Orlov]

He will be the highest paid player in the NHL

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It will be interesting to see how he does between now and next season. IMO he hasn't been at his best this season and it'll be interesting to see if it's injury related or the start of his regression as a player. If it's the latter I'd try to keep his cap hit from being higher than McDavid's current one. If he gets healthy and plays to his typical levels then I'd go up to $13 or $13.5 million AAV X 8 years.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

7 years 11 million aav. In Dallas

Most teams in the league gladly beat this offer.

He will break the market again just like first go around

11% of the cap is breaking the market?

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

Minnesota have $14m freed from Suter and Parise when he could become a free agent. I'd say they'd offer most, or all of that for him.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

NHLPA will put the pressure in him to demand the highest salary in the league.

He will set the new high and then McDavid will set the new high after that

These stars set the trends for new levels of contracts and it trickles down to every level of player to keep making more and more money

 

[GOilers88]

Lol so he's worth the same as Seth Jones and Darnell Nurse? After 3 50 goal years, 4 100 point seasons, a Hart, Art and Lindsay? All this deserves a measly 1M raise? By percentage that's around the rate of inflation since 2017. Absurd.

He didn't accomplish all of that. McDavid did it for him.

McDavid is the only reason any player in the Oilers organization gets paid more than league minimum. Any player that ever plays with McDavid is a product of McDavid, and cannot be judged fairly on any accomplishments because without McDavid those accomplishments don't happen, and if a player doesn't achieve remarkable accomplishments they're trash because nobody could ever play on a team with McDavid and not put up absurd numbers, despite the fact that anyone who puts up remotely good numbers owes it all and solely to McDavid.

It's pretty crazy, circular logic that really doesn't actually make any sense, but it's an easy way to take shots without actually taking any real shots.

 

[TheShape]

Draisaitl is a goner, he'll be the highest paid player in the league for one season until McDavid is up after that. I don't think either player will re-sign with the Oilers.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Whatever it is, it will be franchise crippling.

Minnesota have $14m freed from Suter and Parise when he could become a free agent. I'd say they'd offer most, or all of that for him.

That would be on brand.

 

[Larry Hanson]

The NHLPA advocates for the players. The more Draisaitl and McDavid get paid the more everyone else does because it raises the "max". Many people have gone on record saying Gretzky getting a monster contract in LA helped players get more later down the line, it's been confirmed that during contract talks between McDavid and the Oilers for his current contract the PA reached out to Connor to take more as it was rumored he wanted something to mirror his number(9.7/year was the guess).

How much an individual player gets doesn't matter though. All of the players as a group get 50% of revenues and the "max" contract is 20% of the cap. McDavid, Draisaitl or anyone's contract doesn't make any difference to those things at all.

Gretzky absolutely helped raise salaries but that was in a pre-cap league, it has nothing to do with anything today. I don't believe that McDavid was ever going to take 9.7/yr, let's see that proof.

 

[Larry Hanson]

Read that article above, essentially signing bonuses for players are being encouraged by NHLPA because they're lockout proof. The current CBA is set to expire in 2026, pushed back of previous 2022 expiration date because of Covid.

NHL has less leverage if more players have "guaranteed money" in form of SB's.
I bring this up because Draisaitl will structure his deal a lot like Tavares and other star players to maximize lost tax money, SBs are taxed at a much lower rate than standard salary.

I'm not going to bother reading the article because it has nothing to do with what I was replying to. You weren't talking at all about signing bonuses, not sure why you completely moved the goalposts.

 

[Larry Hanson]

This is a solid point to go along with mine as well. Thanks!
Raising ceiling helps the depth/2nd tier players.

No it's entirely wrong, I really don't get where you are coming from with these posts. Regardless of what any player signs for it doesn't change the "ceiling" at all, the maximum contract allowed is 20% of the cap, period. If Draisaitl takes more that leaves less for depth/2nd tier players not more. The cap is based on league revenues and the players get 50% of that revenue regardless of any player's salary.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I'm not going to bother reading the article because it has nothing to do with what I was replying to. You weren't talking at all about signing bonuses, not sure why you completely moved the goalposts.

OK Larry. You do you.