ATD 2017 Draft Thread II

[Sturminator]

Well, quite frankly, I don't know how.

How exactly do you give him credit as a defenseman for time spent at LW?

It's tough... there is no formula for how to evaluate multi-position players, but I do think we do them a disservice by not looking at their careers holistically. This is especially important for many pre-war F/D stars, guys like Taylor, Clapper, Siebert, Goodfellow, etc. If we only look narrowly at what they did at a given position, I think we shortchange their careers pretty badly.

 

[MadArcand]

I'm well aware I'm going to catch a lot of flak for this pick, I got it last year but as time has gone on he's a guy I need for my team and at least on my 1st line I have Hossa right now so he won't be on a 1st line per se.

Still welcome back to my team for the 2nd yr. in a row with pick 162 of the 2017 ATD Right Winger Cam Neely.

7

Yeah Neely is Neely but the guy is a 5 time all star, 3 time 50 goal scorer. It was only injuries that ruined him, even his last season, 1995-96, he had 46 points in 49 games.

Next has been pmed.

I hoped he'd fall a bit more. He'd look great with Espo and Bucyk.

 

[seventieslord]

I hoped he'd fall a bit more. He'd look great with Espo and Bucyk.

He'd kinda be overkill next to Espo's size and Bucyk's size and physicality. If I were you I'd be just looking for a ringer at RW. Just the guy with the best numbers you can get, whenever the value is right. There are always a few who look great in the 300s.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'd like to trade down from 172 15-20 picks if possible pm me

 

[jarek]

It's tough... there is no formula for how to evaluate multi-position players, but I do think we do them a disservice by not looking at their careers holistically. This is especially important for many pre-war F/D stars, guys like Taylor, Clapper, Siebert, Goodfellow, etc. If we only look narrowly at what they did at a given position, I think we shortchange their careers pretty badly.

I don't disagree in the slightest. I just have a very tough time determining how to do this.

Statistically, I just don't see any way to consolidate the time spent at multiple positions, aside from the two wing positions. I *guess* it would be reasonable to combine seasons spent at any of the forward positions, including C, but there would need to be some adjustments made.

But from F to D and vice versa? It's a totally different style of play. Your responsibilities are just so different.

 

[MadArcand]

He'd kinda be overkill next to Espo's size and Bucyk's size and physicality. If I were you I'd be just looking for a ringer at RW. Just the guy with the best numbers you can get, whenever the value is right. There are always a few who look great in the 300s.

Well I already do have Martinec but I thought I'd rather use him as cornerstone for the 2nd line.

 

[jarek]

Well I already do have Martinec but I thought I'd rather use him as cornerstone for the 2nd line.

I think Martinec would be a pretty good fit there, though I can understand your hesitance to do that.

 

[Johnny Engine]

This was extremely difficult, but I think Ilya Kovalchuk is the right move here.

 

[ResilientBeast]

God damnit

#BanJE

 

[jarek]

I think I know who tony wants and I'm pretty floored that he's still available.

 

[tony d]

With pick 164 of the 2017 ATD Toledo goes for defense and selects defenseman Art Coulter.

Coulter will give Lidstrom another right handed shot to play with which he'll like.

next has been pmed.

 

[Voight]

Kane probably went a bit early last year, though.

This is true, but he was in the middle of his break out/peak season so I can see why.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I'm at work, so I don't have time to make a detailed post on this player, but he's just what our team needs, a RHS extremely offensive defenseman to start off the 2nd pairing. I think the past 2-3 years have shown he was underrated during the HOH Top Defensemen Project. Between TDMM and jarek there's been a ton of research done on him...

The Chicago Shamrocks select Harry Cameron, D

 

[Iceman]

Stockholm selects Bill Durnan, G

First All-Star (1944, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1949, 1950)
Vezina Trophy (1944, 1945, 1946, 1947, 1949, 1950)

Stanley Cup (1944, 1946)

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'll go ahead and select Roy Conacher, LW

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=113540709&postcount=22

 

[Iceman]

I'll go ahead and select Roy Conacher, LW

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=113540709&postcount=22

I was very close to picking him just because I could.

Good pick!

 

[ResilientBeast]

I was very close to picking him just because I could.

Good pick!

I was very afraid you were going to pick him, then Kovalchuk was taken and I got very sad

 

[ResilientBeast]

Conacher also completes my top unit

Roy Conacher --- Cyclone Taylor --- Jarome Iginla
Bill Gadsby --- Dit Clapper (C)
Georges Vezina

 

[jarek]

I'm at work, so I don't have time to make a detailed post on this player, but he's just what our team needs, a RHS extremely offensive defenseman to start off the 2nd pairing. I think the past 2-3 years have shown he was underrated during the HOH Top Defensemen Project. Between TDMM and jarek there's been a ton of research done on him...

The Chicago Shamrocks select Harry Cameron, D

The popular opinion appears to be that people are allergic to him being called good defensively.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I agree, VsX is nice for a quick check-up but it's not the last word on offense.To add to your exemple, a player who scored 80 points in 80 games is not the same as a guy who scored 80 points in 60 games (which is ignored by VsX).All of this should be considered, along with teammates, linemates, team system, etc...

Absolutely right.

Couldn't PPG be easily resolved? Using Howe for example, I'm assuming his 7 best seasons were 1951-1954, 1956-57 and 1963. In these 7 seasons, Howe played 100% of his possible games. Then, taking Howe's VsX score on page 5 of the VsX thread, 127.2, we can see he accumulated a score of 127.2 while playing 100% of his possible games. In other words, a "VsX PPG" of 1.272.

This could account for guys who are underrated by a cummulative VsX score due to being always inured (Lindros). Doing the same thing for Lindros, in his 7 best years (1994-1999, 2002), he played a possible 81.5% of his games. Lindros' 7 year VsX is 85.4, which yields a "VsX PPG" of 1.05.

A couple more examples:

Gretzky (1982-87, 1991): 155.1/98.4 = 1.58
Lemieux (1986, 1988-89, 1992-93, 1996-97): 120.4/89.0 = 1.35
Dionne (1975, 1977, 1979, 1980-82, 1985): 103.2/99.6 = 1.04
Geoffrion (1952, 1954-56, 1959-61): 1.04

Even though Dionne has a 18.2 point advantage over Lindros in cummulative vsx, Lindros' "vsx PPG" is actually superior to that of Dionne. This could help players that weren't healthy to be compared more fairly to those that were. Let me know what you guys think of it.

Also, I noticed there were two different VSX scores: those that were posted by Sturminator on page 4 and 5, and those by HO on the last page. I know that Sturm's data only goes up to 2013, while HO's are updated to 2016, but Howe's VSX scores differ from 127.2 to 125.5, which makes no sense since he obviously didn't play after 2013. Which numbers are the official ones? I used Sturm's numbers in my calculations above.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I'm also looking to move down from 181 to somewhere in the 190s. PM me if you're interested.

 

[jarek]

Couldn't PPG be easily resolved? Using Howe for example, I'm assuming his 7 best seasons were 1951-1954, 1956-57 and 1963. In these 7 seasons, Howe played 100% of his possible games. Then, taking Howe's VsX score on page 5 of the VsX thread, 127.2, we can see he accumulated a score of 127.2 while playing 100% of his possible games. In other words, a "VsX PPG" of 1.272.

This could account for guys who are underrated by VsX due to being always inured (Lindros). Doing the same thing for Lindros, in his 7 best years (1994-1999, 2002), he played a possible 81.5% of his games. Lindros' 7 year VsX is 85.4, which yields a "VsX PPG" of 1.05.

A couple more examples:

Gretzky (1982-87, 1991): 155.1/98.4 = 1.58
Lemieux (1986, 1988-89, 1992-93, 1996-97): 120.4/89.0 = 1.35
Dionne (1975, 1977, 1979, 1980-82, 1985): 103.2/99.6 = 1.04
Geoffrion (1952, 1954-56, 1959-61): 1.04

Even though Dionne has a 18.2 point advantage over Lindros in cummulative vsx, Lindros' "vsx PPG" is actually superior to that of Dionne. This could help players that weren't healthy to be compared more fairly to those that were. Let me know what you guys think of it.

Also, I noticed there were two different VSX scores: those that were posted by Sturminator on page 4 and 5, and those by HO on the last page. I know that Sturm's data only goes up to 2013, while HO's are updated to 2016, but Howe's VSX scores differ from 127.2 to 125.5, which makes no sense since he obviously didn't play after 2013. Which numbers are the official ones? I used Sturm's numbers in my calculations above.

I really dislike the idea of using point per game metrics in general but this doesn't seem like a half bad way of doing it.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Couldn't PPG be easily resolved? Using Howe for example, I'm assuming his 7 best seasons were 1951-1954, 1956-57 and 1963. In these 7 seasons, Howe played 100% of his possible games. Then, taking Howe's VsX score on page 5 of the VsX thread, 127.2, we can see he accumulated a score of 127.2 while playing 100% of his possible games. In other words, a "VsX PPG" of 1.272.

This could account for guys who are underrated by VsX due to being always inured (Lindros). Doing the same thing for Lindros, in his 7 best years (1994-1999, 2002), he played a possible 81.5% of his games. Lindros' 7 year VsX is 85.4, which yields a "VsX PPG" of 1.05.

A couple more examples:

Gretzky (1982-87, 1991): 155.1/98.4 = 1.58
Lemieux (1986, 1988-89, 1992-93, 1996-97): 120.4/89.0 = 1.35
Dionne (1975, 1977, 1979, 1980-82, 1985): 103.2/99.6 = 1.04
Geoffrion (1952, 1954-56, 1959-61): 1.04

Even though Dionne has a 18.2 point advantage over Lindros in cummulative vsx, Lindros' "vsx PPG" is actually superior to that of Dionne. This could help players that weren't healthy to be compared more fairly to those that were. Let me know what you guys think of it.

This would be helpful to look at for sure, but could not just replace the current system as it doesn't punish players at all for missing games. As we all know it's more difficult to maintain a certain scoring pace over 80 games than it is over 50.

EDIT: There would also need to be some kind of minimum number of games played...we wouldn't want to be using a season of 15 games for a modern player

Also, I noticed there were two different VSX scores: those that were posted by Sturminator on page 4 and 5, and those by HO on the last page. I know that Sturm's data only goes up to 2013, while HO's are updated to 2016, but Howe's VSX scores differ from 127.2 to 125.5, which makes no sense since he obviously didn't play after 2013. Which numbers are the official ones? I used Sturm's numbers in my calculations above.

Sturm can comment on this, but my guess is that one of them is a weighted average and the other just an average. If my memory serves the weighting system was something like this (sorted from best season to worst with the best on the far left)...

18, 19, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16

 

[Ben Grimm]

152. ck26 - Amarillo Gorillas - Sergei Zubov, D
153. JFA87-66-99 - Pittsburgh Bankers - Babe Siebert, D/LW
158. jarek + Dwight - Toronto Maple Austons - Drew Doughty, D
160. King Forsberg - Atlantic City Boardwalk Bullies - Frantisek Pospisil, D
161. seventieslord - Regina Pats - Tom Johnson, D
164. tony d - Toledo Goal Diggers - Art Coulter, D
165. Hawkey Town 18 - Chicago Shamrocks - Harry Cameron, D

A lot of good dmen have been taken this round. It may be partially caused by some teams already having a goalie. There's only one team in our division that doesn't have one.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Excellent work bringing in toughness like that Tony.