ATD 2017 Draft Thread II

[Cyborg LeClair]

The Borg will be assimilating a defenseman this time. We see that the long time captain of the Ottawa Senators was just chosen, and we will be choosing their current captain. He is a young player in the midst of an already very accomplished career. While his contemporary, Drew Doughty, has taken home a couple cups and Olympic gold medals, this player has still had a chance to fill his trophy case. With 2 Norris Trophies, a runner up finish, and possibly more on the way, this right handed defenseman has reached historical heights as a scorer. Last season, he finished 4th in league scoring, the first top 5 finish for a dman since Paul Coffey in 86. He also led the league in assists, something that hasnt been done since Bobby Orr in 73. He also posted over 80 points, something not seen since Nick Lidstrom in 06 or Brian Leetch in 96 before him. That also became the 3rd straight season he led his team in points, only one dman has done so 4 straight years (and he looks to be matching that feat this season).

Norris voting: 1, 1, 2, 7, 18
All Star: 1, 1, 1, 7, 21
Hart: 8, 9, 9
Assists (league): 1, 3, 6, 7
Points (league): 4, 10
Assists (dmen): 1, 1, 2, 2, 23
Points (dmen): 1, 1, 1, 1, 18
Goals (dmen): 1, 2, 3, 8, 11

The Borg Collective select: Erik Karlsson

A.K.A. Erik Karlbborg

 

[MadArcand]

Holy scoop.

 

[MadArcand]

Well I didn't get a PM but should be up, so:

The Whalers select Ken Reardon, D

 

[ResilientBeast]

I don't pick for a long time and after the little streak if D I think he's the best D on the board personally so I'll go ahead and select Sylvio Mantha, D

-2 Time 2nd Team All Star
-4 Time Stanley Cup Champion
-5 Time Leader in Games Played in A Season
-8 Top 10 Finishes in Defensive Point Shares for a season
-Elected to Hockey Hall of Fame in 1960
-Renowned for his great defensive game

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I don't pick for a long time and after the little streak if D I think he's the best D on the board personally so I'll go ahead and select Sylvio Mantha, D

-2 Time 2nd Team All Star
-4 Time Stanley Cup Champion
-5 Time Leader in Games Played in A Season
-8 Top 10 Finishes in Defensive Point Shares for a season
-Elected to Hockey Hall of Fame in 1960
-Renowned for his great defensive game

We had been looking at Mantha for quite some time. Good pick.

 

[ResilientBeast]

We had been looking at Mantha for quite some time. Good pick.

Fell 30 picks this year and without a pick in the next 50 made sense to lock down my D as the best or second best in my division

 

[VanIslander]

Everybody has a clock and the right to use it any damn way they please!

Some GMs regularly use up most of their clock. I usually don't. I also NEVER leave lists. I have enjoyed making pick announcements since 2004 in these drafts. I enjoy constructing and announcing picks. That's part of the fun of this.

I'm a bit pissed at all the harping over my not leaving a list.

Anyways,...

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Namba 17 & I are LOCKED & (almost) LOADED.

We are one pick away from our top choice for quite a while.


I broke up with someone back in 2006 simply because she didn't like Bruce Willis! (We all need an excuse, eh?)

Sounds like you know who you want...I will be around if you want to leave a list

 

[VanIslander]

Sounds like you know who you want...I will be around if you want to leave a list

It's 12:10 am Saturday morning here... if we ain't up soon, I'll be back before dawn hereabouts and spend two or three hours of our clock to get it done!

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

The inflation of parity in this league is getting beyond ridiculous.

 

[chaosrevolver]

I think it is time to fill a serious hole of mine with a goaltender who stepped it up when his team needed him most.

The Cobalt Silver Kings select G - Bernie Parent

2 x Stanley Cup Champion (1974, 1975)

2 x Conn Smythe Trophy (1974, 1975)
2 x Vezina Trophy (1974, 1975)

2 x First Team All-Star (1974, 1975)
WHL Second Team All-Star (1973)

5 x NHL All-Star (1969, 1970, 1974, 1975, 1977)

Hart voting – 2nd(1974), 4th(1975)

All-Star voting – 1st(1974), 1st(1975), 4th(1969), 4th(1970), 5th(1968), 5th(1977), 5th(1978), 6th(1971), 7th(1972), 7th(1979)

Save Percentage – 1st(1974), 2nd(1975), 3rd(1969), 3rd(1970), 3rd(1978), 4th(1968), 7th(1972), 8th(1979), 9th(1971), 11th(1977)

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

I think it is time to fill a serious hole of mine with a goaltender who stepped it up when his team needed him most.

The Cobalt Silver Kings select G - Bernie Parent

A legend in my city. Any team with Bernie has a chance to win it all. What a peak

 

[tony d]

Time to review recent picks:

Frantisek Pospisil: Good pick, will definitely bring some defensive abilities to a back end that includes the more offensive Leetch and MacInnis.

Tom Johnson: Was in the running for my pick at 164, thanks for making the decision easier for me. He'll add to an already good defense that includes Seibert and Savard.

Cam Neely: Thanks everyone for the complements on the Neely pick. Yeah he may get hurt, but when he's out there he'll give it his all. That was something my team needed big time, I'm glad to get him.

Ilya Kovalchuk: Very good pick, one of the top goal scorers for a bit in the NHL. Still are you going to put him with Morenz or Keon? Seems like the styles may be the same with Morenz and with Keon you're dealing with a more defensive guy, could you clarify this please?

Art Coulter: My 3rd defenseman, I'll probably pair him with Lidstrom at even strength on the 1st pairing. That's 2 RHS on my team now.

Harry Cameron: I looked at him as well but decided to go more defensive with my pick, still a solid pick for sure and a good #3 for your team.

Bill Durnan: Good pick but perhaps toward the weaker of the goalies took so far this draft.

Roy Conacher: A good goal scorer and gives you the classic ATD 1st line of the goal scorer (Conacher), playmaker (Taylor) and do everything guy (Iginla)

Ed Belfour: In early days I looked at possibly getting Ed Belfour. He's a very good goalie and would love to get him 1 of these days.

Daniel alfredsson: Looked at him when I picked Hossa. Perhaps the best player to ever play for Ottawa in the current form.

Erik Karlsson: Was really thinking of picking him yesterday before I posted the thoughts about my roster. He went up 9 spots this year and while his defensive game isn't as strong as Doughty's I wonder why doughty got such a rise this year and not Karlsson (Norris trophy win of course but Karlsson already has 2 or 3 of them).

Ken Reardon: Good pick, seems to be in the next tier of defenseman after Coulter, Mantha and Johnson, still a decent pick.

Sylvio Mantha: Was strongly considering picking him yesterday and might have done it but I had him on my team with Dave G in 2011, being that I picked Neely yesterday I wanted to go with someone I never had before, still a good pick.

Bernie Parent: Very good pick, guy had 1 heck of a peak, for your sake hopefully he'll find that peak again.

Anyway those are my thoughts on the recent picks.

 

[jarek]

Time to review recent picks:

Frantisek Pospisil: Good pick, will definitely bring some defensive abilities to a back end that includes the more offensive Leetch and MacInnis.

Tom Johnson: Was in the running for my pick at 164, thanks for making the decision easier for me. He'll add to an already good defense that includes Seibert and Savard.

Cam Neely: Thanks everyone for the complements on the Neely pick. Yeah he may get hurt, but when he's out there he'll give it his all. That was something my team needed big time, I'm glad to get him.

Ilya Kovalchuk: Very good pick, one of the top goal scorers for a bit in the NHL. Still are you going to put him with Morenz or Keon? Seems like the styles may be the same with Morenz and with Keon you're dealing with a more defensive guy, could you clarify this please?

Art Coulter: My 3rd defenseman, I'll probably pair him with Lidstrom at even strength on the 1st pairing. That's 2 RHS on my team now.

Harry Cameron: I looked at him as well but decided to go more defensive with my pick, still a solid pick for sure and a good #3 for your team.

Bill Durnan: Good pick but perhaps toward the weaker of the goalies took so far this draft.

Roy Conacher: A good goal scorer and gives you the classic ATD 1st line of the goal scorer (Conacher), playmaker (Taylor) and do everything guy (Iginla)

Ed Belfour: In early days I looked at possibly getting Ed Belfour. He's a very good goalie and would love to get him 1 of these days.

Daniel alfredsson: Looked at him when I picked Hossa. Perhaps the best player to ever play for Ottawa in the current form.

Erik Karlsson: Was really thinking of picking him yesterday before I posted the thoughts about my roster. He went up 9 spots this year and while his defensive game isn't as strong as Doughty's I wonder why doughty got such a rise this year and not Karlsson (Norris trophy win of course but Karlsson already has 2 or 3 of them).

Ken Reardon: Good pick, seems to be in the next tier of defenseman after Coulter, Mantha and Johnson, still a decent pick.

Sylvio Mantha: Was strongly considering picking him yesterday and might have done it but I had him on my team with Dave G in 2011, being that I picked Neely yesterday I wanted to go with someone I never had before, still a good pick.

Bernie Parent: Very good pick, guy had 1 heck of a peak, for your sake hopefully he'll find that peak again.

Anyway those are my thoughts on the recent picks.

Re. Erik Karlsson vs. Doughty

If all you look at is Norris voting:

Karlsson: 1, 1, 2, 7, 18
Doughty: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10

And Doughty is the 2nd best playoff defenseman of this generation. Karlsson isn't necessarily bad in the playoffs, but he's not close to Doughty.

Karlsson went too early last year also.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Re. Erik Karlsson vs. Doughty

If all you look at is Norris voting:

Karlsson: 1, 1, 2, 7, 18
Doughty: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10

And Doughty is the 2nd best playoff defenseman of this generation. Karlsson isn't necessarily bad in the playoffs, but he's not close to Doughty.

Karlsson went too early last year also.

I recognize Doughty vs Karlsson is a huge debate, one that my own co-gm and I argue over, but as far as I'm concerned the immeasurable qualities of Doughty's intangibles don't measure up with the quantifiable qualities of Karlsson's possession and offense. Doughty's not that much better at defense than Karlsson is that much better than Doughty at offense. As far as I'm concerned, Karlsson is the best defenseman of this era.

 

[seventieslord]

I understand that with Doughty and Karlsson you can go either way if judging them as current players, but as all-time players, 657+81+20 games played at a high/elite level is significantly better than 393+29+10. Karlsson would have to have a considerably higher peak to have more value than Doughty as an all-time player right now. One can easily argue his peak was higher, but significantly?

 

[ResilientBeast]

I understand that with Doughty and Karlsson you can go either way if judging them as current players, but as all-time players, 657+81+20 games played at a high/elite level is significantly better than 393+29+10. Karlsson would have to have a considerably higher peak to have more value than Doughty as an all-time player right now. One can easily argue his peak was higher, but significantly?

I think it comes down to your D composition and team needs

 

[jarek]

I recognize Doughty vs Karlsson is a huge debate, one that my own co-gm and I argue over, but as far as I'm concerned the immeasurable qualities of Doughty's intangibles don't measure up with the quantifiable qualities of Karlsson's possession and offense. Doughty's not that much better at defense than Karlsson is that much better than Doughty at offense. As far as I'm concerned, Karlsson is the best defenseman of this era.

Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman of this era, no question. So why does his team have such trouble in the playoffs while Doughty's has won two cups?

Doughty has also been the undisputed best defenseman of two cup winning teams. Karlsson can't come close to that.

As far as possession.. what are you talking about? Doughty is a career 55.2% CF and Karlsson is 53.1%. I recognize that Karlsson's relative CF% is higher, but I think that has a lot more to do with the rest of his team being worse compared to the rest of Doughty's team. Of course your relative CF% is going to look better if your team is that much worse than you. And Doughty has done this with slightly lower offensive zone starts (54% vs 55.5%). There's no way anyone will convince me that Karlsson is a better possession player than Doughty.

As far as offense.. Doughty has 188 even strength points to his 348 total points (54%) while Karlsson has 260 even strength points to his 429 total points (60%). I won't dispute Karlsson being the better offensive player overall but a lot of it is driven by the power play. The PP is obviously a strength of Karlsson's game and I'm not disparaging him there but Doughty is a much better overall even strength player.. which is where most of the game is played.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman of this era, no question. So why does his team have such trouble in the playoffs while Doughty's has won two cups?

Doughty has also been the undisputed best defenseman of two cup winning teams. Karlsson can't come close to that.

Doughty is my favorite dman in the league and I'd personally take him over Karlsson on my team (the Flyers). But Doughty's two cup teams were far superior to any Ottawa team Karlsson has been on from top to bottom. From coaching, to goalies, to forwards, to defensive depth.

If you were to replace Doughty with Karlsson, idk if the Kings would still have both cups because Doughty is a huge part of the Kings success and that's a fantasy premise. By that same token, Kings might have 3 cups if they had Karlsson because of how dried up and snakebit their offense was in 2015. But Im positive Karlsson would still be the undisputed best defenseman on their team (if put in Doughty's place).

Not gonna argue many other points you've posted, but Kings>Senators easily, if you take Doughty and Karlsson out of the equation.

 

[seventieslord]

There's no way anyone will convince me that Karlsson is a better possession player than Doughty.

No one should say "there's no way anyone will convince me..." in the ATD.

Second, I think from watching both players, Karlsson is easily the best possession defenseman in the NHL.

As far as offense.. Doughty has 188 even strength points to his 348 total points (54%) while Karlsson has 260 even strength points to his 429 total points (60%). I won't dispute Karlsson being the better offensive player overall but a lot of it is driven by the power play. The PP is obviously a strength of Karlsson's game and I'm not disparaging him there but Doughty is a much better overall even strength player.. which is where most of the game is played.

This kind of analysis only works if one player is being stifled by his lack of opportunity compared to the other player. In the case of Doughty and Karlsson, both get plenty of PP time, and they're not really close in production.

I bring up cases like this to demonstrate how problematic it is to say one defenseman is miles better than another offensively when he only outpointed the other 28-25 at ES but got 3 more PP minutes per game, leading to a 27-3 PP points advantage. But that's not what happened here.

Karlsson in the past 5 seasons has 1.44 points/60 and Doughty has 0.72. That's a massive difference. On the PP, he beats Doughty 4.74 to 3.85. Yes, the gap is smaller on the PP, but that hurts the point you're trying to make, it doesn't help it. At even strength (which is where most of the game is played), Karlsson is twice the producer that Doughty is.

This says nothing of their all-around impact, plus it's a rate stat which doesn't give any credit for more GP at a high level (which I already did for Doughty) but I couldn't let this flawed argument go unanswered.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I understand that with Doughty and Karlsson you can go either way if judging them as current players, but as all-time players, 657+81+20 games played at a high/elite level is significantly better than 393+29+10. Karlsson would have to have a considerably higher peak to have more value than Doughty as an all-time player right now. One can easily argue his peak was higher, but significantly?

Because of quantity of games played? Karlsson had one major injury in his career, but Karlsson's points per game average of his career is much higher than Doughty's. As for playoff appearances and international play, Canada and LA are much better than Sweden and Ottawa. Measuring the quantity of games played for two players that are the same age and from the same draft class is like the least reliable means of comparing the two players, when the difference between regular season appearances is not substantial. From an all time perspective and contemporary perspective, it's the same thing in this particular context. Like comparing Weber to Doughty and Karlsson you can talk about quantity of games due to Weber's age, but not when comparing these two particular players.

 

[jarek]

Doughty is my favorite dman in the league and I'd personally take him over Karlsson on my team (the Flyers). But Doughty's two cup teams were far superior to any Ottawa team Karlsson has been on from top to bottom. From coaching, to goalies, to forwards, to defensive depth.

If you were to replace Doughty with Karlsson, idk if the Kings would still have both cups because Doughty is a huge part of the Kings success and that's a fantasy premise. By that same token, Kings might have 3 cups if they had Karlsson because of how dried up and snakebit their offense was in 2015. But Im positive Karlsson would still be the undisputed best defenseman on their team.

Not gonna argue many other points you've posted, but Kings>Senators easily, if you take Doughty and Karlsson out of the equation.

No question, the Kings are a better team without their respective best defensemen (arguably best players for both). I have no idea what would happen because they are such drastically different players. If all else is the same, does Karlsson even survive in the system that was being coached in LA? Doughty gets some extra leash to be creative but that's because he's so damn solid in his own zone, and I think the coach trusts him to make the best play. I'm not sure that Karlsson would get the same leeway. I'm not saying Karlsson is bad defensively, but he's not close to Doughty in that regard.

And on that note, just how much is Doughty's offense being suppressed because of the system his team employs? You can see how creative he can be but I think he likely doesn't take certain risks in order to make what he believes is the better overall play. Karlsson, on the other hand, I believe is almost always thinking offense.. as he should given his skill set. If he tried to become a better defender, I think he'd be a less effective player overall.

 

[seventieslord]

Because of quantity of games played? Karlsson had one major injury in his career, but Karlsson's points per game average of his career is much higher than Doughty's. As for playoff appearances and international play, Canada and LA are much better than Sweden and Ottawa. Measuring the quantity of games played for two players that are the same age and from the same draft class is like the least reliable means of comparing the two players, when the difference between regular season appearances is not substantial. From an all time perspective and contemporary perspective, it's the same thing in this particular context. Like comparing Weber to Doughty and Karlsson you can talk about quantity of games due to Weber's age, but not when comparing these two particular players.

Of course it's substantial!

I don't see any different between what I'm saying, and someone else saying "Max Bentley was just as good as Dionne at his best, but Dionne did it for twice as long". Of course we should prefer Dionne as an all-time player.

 

[jarek]

No one should say "there's no way anyone will convince me..." in the ATD.

Second, I think from watching both players, Karlsson is easily the best possession defenseman in the NHL.

The numbers appear to disagree with your assessment.

This kind of analysis only works if one player is being stifled by his lack of opportunity compared to the other player. In the case of Doughty and Karlsson, both get plenty of PP time, and they're not really close in production.

I bring up cases like this to demonstrate how problematic it is to say one defenseman is miles better than another offensively when he only outpointed the other 28-25 at ES but got 3 more PP minutes per game, leading to a 27-3 PP points advantage. But that's not what happened here.

Karlsson in the past 5 seasons has 1.44 points/60 and Doughty has 0.72. That's a massive difference. On the PP, he beats Doughty 4.74 to 3.85. Yes, the gap is smaller on the PP, but that hurts the point you're trying to make, it doesn't help it. At even strength (which is where most of the game is played), Karlsson is twice the producer that Doughty is.

This says nothing of their all-around impact, plus it's a rate stat which doesn't give any credit for more GP at a high level (which I already did for Doughty) but I couldn't let this flawed argument go unanswered.

The only thing I will say is that there's no way Doughty gets the same offensive opportunities at even strength as Karlsson. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the west is a lower scoring conference in general, and LA's system encourages playing defensively more than offensively. Not so with Karlsson.

 

[ResilientBeast]

The only thing I will say is that there's no way Doughty gets the same offensive opportunities at even strength as Karlsson. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the west is a lower scoring conference in general, and LA's system encourages playing defensively more than offensively. Not so with Karlsson.

See but Karlsson is being forced into the role of single handily carrying his team.

Last season Karlsson beat his teammate by 21 points and his 82 points he factored into 35.6% of his teams goals.

Last season Doughty was the 5th highest scorer on his team and factored into 22.86% of his teams goals.

Also just completely transpose Doughty to the Sens with no adjustment for anything and Doughty would still have the 5th more points on that team.