Speculation: Ottawa Senators Cap Projections 25/26 and 26/27

Dorion didn't negotiate Stutzle and Sanderson down from 9-10M+ deals through the force of his personality and charm. The cap hits were clearly based largely on what comparable players signed for.

Nor did he sweet talk those guys into extending early. He presented the option of an 8 year extension to them prior to the conclusion of their ELCs, and they opted to take the 65-70M guaranteed over betting on themselves and potentially getting more, which was extremely fortunate for us, particularly in Stutzle's case.

Any GM could and would have signed them to those deals. It's not because of the competence of Pierre Dorion that we have those two guys (and others) locked up long-term at attractive cap hits, so it's weird to praise him as if he's the reason it happened. It's just the reality of RFA contracts.
GMs can and do botch contract negotiations though. Look at Treliving, Matthew Tkachuk wanted a long-term deal and he bridged him, then lost him. He had an opportunity to sign Gaudreau to an extension a year before he went to UFA and didn’t.

I don’t think Dorion needs praise heaped upon him for that, but it’s not like he couldn’t have opted not to go long-term either. He got them locked up, it was good work by him, however “easy” it might have been.
 

Cap going to 95.5 so if we can use that as a bit of a guideline and we consider leaving 1m dry powder we would have just under 5m to sign someone factoring in a replacement for one of the 1m$ players above. (Assuming we keep Giroux at about 4m)

I can see some bottom 6 forward upgrades and maybe a bottom pair RD upgrade.
I'm more looking at replacing Giroux with a better player, so take the $4M you allocated to him, and add about another $4M, and see who we could sign. Ehlers would be great IMO, not sure how much it would take to sign him or whether he even wants to play here. Brock Nelson may want to be an Islander forever, but he would be a cheaper version, but still an upgrade over Giroux IMO given Giroux's age.
 
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I'm more looking at replacing Giroux with a better player, so take the $4M you allocated to him, and add about another $4M, and see who we could sign. Ehlers would be great IMO, not sure how much it would take to sign him or whether he even wants to play here. Brock Nelson may want to be an Islander forever, but he would be a cheaper version, but still an upgrade over Giroux IMO given Giroux's age.
Could happen but IMO if Giroux wants to stay at an agreeable amount 4m or less the Sens will keep him.
 
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Unless the league has a giant tv/streaming deal in it's back pocket to balance things, Mr. Bettman can kiss his precious Parity goodbye. Max a player can make is 20% of cap. Many teams will be running an internal cap of 95-100 million is my guess. Only a few teams will be able to run max cap. The others won't commit 15-20 mill on one player because they wouldn't be able to build a roster. We're right back to the first lock out.
Yeah agreed. Friedman suggested that Colorado moving Rantanen was a signal they will have an internal cap, and that’s a team that has won a cup recently and has regular playoff revenue coming in. It’s gonna be really hard on small market teams.
 
GMs can and do botch contract negotiations though. Look at Treliving, Matthew Tkachuk wanted a long-term deal and he bridged him, then lost him. He had an opportunity to sign Gaudreau to an extension a year before he went to UFA and didn’t.

I don’t think Dorion needs praise heaped upon him for that, but it’s not like he couldn’t have opted not to go long-term either. He got them locked up, it was good work by him, however “easy” it might have been.

I normally don't praise a GM for not doing something incredibly stupid, like bridging Tkachuk to fit in Frolik, or completing bending over backwards with both money and term like Dubas did for Matthews/Marner.

If Dorion deserves praise for any extension of an RFA it's Tkachuk. I suspect his family was probably pushing hard for a 3 year extension, which is what Matthew got, which would have potentially seen him out of small town Canada by year 4-5 if he played his cards similarly.

Instead he stuck to his guns and insisted Brady sign a long-term deal. We didn't get him for 8 years (only 7) and I definitely think he got more than he should have based on his resume at the time, but that was an actual negotiation that was difficult and he did well in all things considered. The rest of the RFAs were a layup.
 
GMs can and do botch contract negotiations though. Look at Treliving, Matthew Tkachuk wanted a long-term deal and he bridged him, then lost him. He had an opportunity to sign Gaudreau to an extension a year before he went to UFA and didn’t.

I don’t think Dorion needs praise heaped upon him for that, but it’s not like he couldn’t have opted not to go long-term either. He got them locked up, it was good work by him, however “easy” it might have been.
Offering the contracts so early in their respective careers made it a bit easier, but also a gamble. The jury's still out for example in Norris' case, entirely dependent on whether his shoulder holds up. In Colin White's case it clearly bombed. Brady's contract seems to be just right, not really a bargain. It's mostly a good deal when it comes to Stutzle, and possibly Sanderson, but even then we'll have to wait and see.
 
What happens when the Canadian economy goes busto under the weight of tariffs and a crashing dollar?
 
Nor did he sweet talk those guys into extending early.
They both signed 1 year earlier, than they had to, and definitely got a good deal on them.

Zero chance Stutzle signs for his deal, if negotiations started after getting 90 points on his entry level.

It’s fine to give Dorion his due ,when it’s deserving, but it’s also a gamble, signing them early, and it will pay off for those 2 players.
 
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Keeping Giroux and adding something of significance in the offseason will require another Joseph-like deal with Perron with a rebuilding team. He only has one year left so I don't think it will be difficult.
It might be costly though (a draft pick to seal the deal).
 
OK, thanks. I remember now that Friedman came out with something more recent. What I see at this point is just speculation. I guess we’ll learn more at the next Governors meeting.

As an aside, I think a bigger increase is going to help large market teams especially U.S. based teams. So, I get less excited about bigger cap numbers than some as I don’t think that translates to small-market Canadian teams like Ottawa spending to the cap ceiling.
Given the poor value of the Canadian dollar, we may not even pay to the Salary Cap ceiling in future years.

What happens when the Canadian economy goes busto under the weight of tariffs and a crashing dollar?
Malls close stores, companies go bankrupt, sky falls! Chaos! Need to build a concrete bunker to store food and stay safe from marauding gangs! Apocalypse!
 
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Could happen but IMO if Giroux wants to stay at an agreeable amount 4m or less the Sens will keep him.
However, if the Senators could obtain a young, developing forward who could become a top 6, I could see the $4M for Giroux being used to acquire that younger better player. I suppose we shall soon see what Staios and Giroux have in mind as contract talks can take place anytime now.
 
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92.5 or 95 the cap in 2025/26

Hamonic replacement1000000
Kleven2000000
Matinpalo/JBD1000000
Giroux4000000
Gregor1000000
Cousins1000000
Highmore1000000
Merilainen1000000
Total12000000

78,730,714 + 12,000,000 = 90,730,714

1,769,286 Cap space at 92.5; add 2.5 million or 4,269,286 at 95

I used round numbers just to make it easier.. Those names can change somewhat but there is not a large amount of wiggle room at a 92.5 cap
2-3 could go a little higher some a little lower; at 95 there looks like there would be room to add
These line items should be added to the spreadsheet as "estimates" to distinguish them from the actual "signed contracts".
 
These line items should be added to the spreadsheet as "estimates" to distinguish them from the actual "signed contracts".
Hamonic Replacement isn't someone's name
Matinpalo/JBD did not meld into one person..

I took a leap of faith on people being able to discern that as difficult as it may seem
 
Yeah agreed. Friedman suggested that Colorado moving Rantanen was a signal they will have an internal cap, and that’s a team that has won a cup recently and has regular playoff revenue coming in. It’s gonna be really hard on small market teams.
Anybody done an article on this yet? Chris Johnston did his normal "read the first tweets that come out and then write something and pretend that I have a brain even though I'm a fckn potatoe and everybody knows it" . His pal Julian MacfcknCheezeKenzie is the same. I've gone off on a bit of a tangent.
 
Keeping Giroux and adding something of significance in the offseason will require another Joseph-like deal with Perron with a rebuilding team. He only has one year left so I don't think it will be difficult.
Not necessarily. If Giroux jusr wants to play one more year and sign a 35+ contract, we can absolutely get a stud winger for Jimmy (assuming those are willing to sign).
 
I’d say we become a team that only spends to the cap when we are contenders.

Hopefully the league moves to enhanced revenue sharing.
The NHL will have to do something to help some smaller market teams.

Have to see what the authoritarians do south of the border after they bring the brown shirts in to replace the FBI
 
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What happens when the Canadian economy goes busto under the weight of tariffs and a crashing dollar?

A lot of scary stuff that can impact Canada and also the US.. we are heading towards a very strange time and the people at the wheel are completely blind and deaf to anything other than the making of an authoritarian regime
 
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A lot of scary stuff that can impact Canada and also the US.. we are heading towards a very strange time and the people at the wheel are completely blind and deaf to anything other than the making of an authoritarian regime
They aren't blind and deaf....that's the scary part. But how 'bout that 4 nations eh? Pretty exciting eh? RUUUUUN!
 
Not necessarily. If Giroux jusr wants to play one more year and sign a 35+ contract, we can absolutely get a stud winger for Jimmy (assuming those are willing to sign).
For me, Giroux is verging on Brassard's PTO territory for next year (yes, I'm exaggerating slightly). I'd consider him for next year only after having tried everything possible to improve on him. If that means we lose him, so be it.
 
They aren't blind and deaf....that's the scary part. But how 'bout that 4 nations eh? Pretty exciting eh? RUUUUUN!
If you look at what they are doing .. its hard to argue they are not.

Just watched A Complete Unknown... The Times they are a changin' ....Again.
 

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