Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Agent Zuuuub]

I mean you say "step up" but step up to what? Our goals per game is down, our PP went from middle of the pack before Norris' injury to last in the league since then, our puck possession time is down and our high danger scoring chances are down. Essentially, our offense has disintegrated in front of our eyes.
And the assertion that no one but Zub can play a shut down role on this team? Like shutting down the opposition is one man's job? I can't even bother anymore. The worst thing in all this is you make it seem like there's only two sides to this discussion - you either believe Zub is the most impactful player on the team or you think he's garbage. Him being 6th or 7th isn't good enough, it must automatically make the person you're talking to believe that Zub sucks.

and yet we are still winning some games and are in most of them despite losing Batherson, Norris and more recently Chabot.

I also don't understand why you're getting so testy for. I thought we were having a normal discussion, not anything to get mad over. And when did I say things were so binary?

I just wrote this on this same page. "I can see the arguments for the others players especially Bath, but take out Zub from the team and we are a much much worse defensive team. And if you're a bad defensive team, you aren't a good team period."

How is that saying there's only two sides to a discussion?

 

[BankStreetParade]

he is still the most impactful player on the team.

His play gives the whole team stability

Zub injury would be the biggest loss on the roster after Chabot.

Batherson and Norris get injured Brady, Formenton, Brown, Stutzle, Paul step up.

Zub gets injured who steps up? ... Even Chabot is not suited to the role as it's not his game.

and yet we are still winning some games and are in most of them despite losing Batherson, Norris and more recently Chabot.

I also don't understand why you're getting so testy for. I thought we were having a normal discussion, not anything to get mad over. And when did I say things were so binary?

I just wrote this on this same page. "I can see the arguments for the others players especially Bath, but take out Zub from the team and we are a much much worse defensive team. And if you're a bad defensive team, you aren't a good team period."

How is that saying there's only two sides to a discussion?

You make a declarative statement that a defensive defenseman is the most impactful player on the team when he's not even the best defenseman on the team and continue by arguing that Zub is virtually irreplaceable and that even if we lose better players on the roster they can be replaced internally with much worse players while not accounting the same for Zub. That's not binary? It's kinda binary when you say the guy is the most impactful player and then when someone says "nah, probably like the 6th or 7th", you proceed to present your argument by dismissing the contributions of other players while blindly praising Zub like he's a mythical warrior of legend or something. I mean, you didn't even really present any facts with your original statement, you just said he's been great against the other teams' best players like that's a substantive discussion in and of itself. It takes away the play of other players on the roster and the much, much improved goaltending. Let's not get carried away here. He's a really good player and has played an important part on this team defensively but his stans are starting to get a little generous with their compliments of him.

 

[Big Muddy]

Counter to that: what would you say about Zaitsev playing more than Stutzle and Formenton? What would you say about Holden and Brannstrom playing more than Tkachuk, Norris and Batherson?

If you are making the point that some defensemen log more minutes than forwards, I agree (obviously). However, the fact remains that Zub both plays a lot of minutes for the Senators and has the 2nd highest TOI/G for all defensemen behind Chabot. And, I would still contend that the coaches understand the importance of having a dependable defender that can gobble a lot of minutes. If Zub plays the 2nd highest minutes and plays poorly, the negative impact would be huge.

 

[bert]

And you see no way that those other players grow into anything more valuable than Zub?

I don't think it's very likely no. Zub is really good... But most of all stylistically they already have two puck movers that are much better in Sanderson and Chabot. This team already has a shortage on physical d men and they have Zub. They need more match up hard guys to play against. They don't really have any others in the system other than Kleven.

The staples and core of this D is Chabot, Zub, Sanderson. They can build around them. If they trade Zub it just means an elevated role for players like Brown and Zaitsev...

Having Zubs pair take the hard matchups frees up Chabot, to get him in more favorable matchups.

I am curious as to what type of players you project Thomson and JBD to be. I don't see JBD ever being able to carry a top 4 pair. He doesnt have the size, or skating ability. For Thomson he could get there he has the raw tools but has a ways to go. Zub is already doing it. And has been able to do it with multiple partners.

 

[JD1]

I don't think it's very likely no. Zub is really good... But most of all stylistically they already have two puck movers that are much better in Sanderson and Chabot. This team already has a shortage on physical d men and they have Zub. They need more match up hard guys to play against. They don't really have any others in the system other than Kleven.

The staples and core of this D is Chabot, Zub, Sanderson. They can build around them. If they trade Zub it just means an elevated role for players like Brown and Zaitsev...

Having Zubs pair take the hard matchups frees up Chabot, to get him in more favorable matchups.

I am curious as to what type of players you project Thomson and JBD to be. I don't see JBD ever being able to carry a top 4 pair. He doesnt have the size, or skating ability. For Thomson he could get there he has the raw tools but has a ways to go. Zub is already doing it. And has been able to do it with multiple partners.

So let's clear this up. I think Zub is a great player. Go back and look at the fall of 2020. I kept interjecting with "what about Zub? I looked at his resume, watched a bunch of clips and listened to Craig Button say" this guy could be an instant top 4" and based on limited viewing of 10 minutes of video I thought Button might be right. He clearly was. So I've nothing against Zub.

You mentioned carrying a pair. Ok. Chabot and Sanderson are the guys that I think will carry 48 minutes a night. I think by 23-24 Sanderson is in discussion for best on best events and Chabot is already in those discussions now. There isn't going to be a need to carry either.

JBD and Thomson are both young. Both 5 years younger than Zub. I think we're already witnessing peak Zub or close to it. He's played over 260 games in the KHL, in world championships, in the Olympics, and he's closing in on 100 games in the NHL.

I think both Thomson and JBD are going to be NHL regulars. And they've got a lot of improvements still in front of them. I just won't at all be surprised if they're lining up beside Chabot and Sanderson. Chabot and Thomson have already played together and the other two have the und connection

I'd bet it is Zub not here in 2023-24 of the three of them. If he's here, one of the other two will be moved. And I'll go one step further, if he's here I think it'll be at <5 aav because he left money on the table to be here. If Zub wants to maximize his earnings, I think it'll have to be elsewhere because Chabot's been paid and Sanderson is going to be paid.

 

[bert]

So let's clear this up. I think Zub is a great player. Go back and look at the fall of 2020. I kept interjecting with "what about Zub? I looked at his resume, watched a bunch of clips and listened to Craig Button say" this guy could be an instant top 4" and based on limited viewing of 10 minutes of video I thought Button might be right. He clearly was. So I've nothing against Zub.

You mentioned carrying a pair. Ok. Chabot and Sanderson are the guys that I think will carry 48 minutes a night. I think by 23-24 Sanderson is in discussion for best on best events and Chabot is already in those discussions now. There isn't going to be a need to carry either.

JBD and Thomson are both young. Both 5 years younger than Zub. I think we're already witnessing peak Zub or close to it. He's played over 260 games in the KHL, in world championships, in the Olympics, and he's closing in on 100 games in the NHL.

I think both Thomson and JBD are going to be NHL regulars. And they've got a lot of improvements still in front of them. I just won't at all be surprised if they're lining up beside Chabot and Sanderson. Chabot and Thomson have already played together and the other two have the und connection

I'd bet it is Zub not here in 2023-24 of the three of them. If he's here, one of the other two will be moved. And I'll go one step further, if he's here I think it'll be at <5 aav because he left money on the table to be here. If Zub wants to maximize his earnings, I think it'll have to be elsewhere because Chabot's been paid and Sanderson is going to be paid.

You can pay 3 d men. You cannot be a good team without atleast 3 really good ones to anchor specific roles. Teams with elite D cores are the only ones that are true contenders. Zub is a good investment, a top 4 d man is way more important than a 2nd line winger. Sanderson also won't have to be paid for 3 more seasons. This team really doesn't have many above average players they have to hold on to the ones they have. Zub is just hitting his prime he probably has 5 prime years left maybe more. He is pretty easily a top 5 player on this team, he is a best on best player too. If they want to win a cup they need as many elite players as they can get... He is one.

Sanderson Zub should be this teams matchup pair. He is the perfect guy to play Sanderson with.

 

[JD1]

You can pay 3 d men. You cannot be a good team without atleast 3 really good ones to anchor specific roles. Teams with elite D cores are the only ones that are true contenders. Zub is a good investment, a top 4 d man is way more important than a 2nd line winger. Sanderson also won't have to be paid for 3 more seasons. This team really doesn't have many above average players they have to hold on to the ones they have. Zub is just hitting his prime he probably has 5 prime years left maybe more. He is pretty easily a top 5 player on this team, he is a best on best player too. If they want to win a cup they need as many elite players as they can get... He is one.

Sanderson Zub should be this teams matchup pair. He is the perfect guy to play Sanderson with.

Well Bert, given the shit show results we've been through, let's hope the arguments rolling forward are about how to keep the talent within the cap. At least those will be good problems to have.

 

[Sweatred]

Well Bert, given the shit show results we've been through, let's hope the arguments rolling forward are about how to keep the talent within the cap. At least those will be good problems to have.

Teams can’t pay 3D $21 million+ with an internal budget in the $60-70 range.

By 2024 Chabot makes $10, Sanderson may be $8+… tough decisions.

I haven’t been as impressed with him lately - not sure Id want to go $5x6 type thing.

 

[GCK]

Teams can’t pay 3D $21 million+ with an internal budget in the $60-70 range.

By 2024 Chabot makes $10, Sanderson may be $8+… tough decisions.

I haven’t been as impressed with him lately - not sure Id want to go $5x6 type thing.

We have been assured by the owner that he will be spending. Before you reply with the low revenue argument, there were no qualifiers on his statement.

 

[Sweatred]

We have been assured by the owner that he will be spending. Before you reply with the low revenue argument, there were no qualifiers on his statement.

Wonderful - there is spending every year. I’ll take him at his word and assume it will go up but based on what our attendance has looked like this year before and after the Covid pauses his revenue is probably $15-20 below where he thought it would be. I don’t know if he will be willing to eat that plus all the new spending that may have been planned as this team improves.

This teams revenue could be $90 million for this year. We not spending $80 million on payroll with $90-100 of revenue.

Im worried we’ll see Zub, Paul, and White moved just to claw back $10 million.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Teams can’t pay 3D $21 million+ with an internal budget in the $60-70 range.

By 2024 Chabot makes $10, Sanderson may be $8+… tough decisions.

I haven’t been as impressed with him lately - not sure Id want to go $5x6 type thing.

Why aren’t you using AAV.

 

[Sweatred]

Why aren’t you using AAV.

I think real $$$ out is more import e to our ownership than AAV?

Brady going to hit $10+ and Chabot will be $10+ . Jimmy/Sanderson may be up there too When Zub may want $5 or whatever. This team could have a cap hit of $80 mill but really be paying out $90+ million in salaries from 2024 on. I think that makes keeping guys like Zub hard.

Most probably hope a new ownership group may be here at that time but we do have a cash crunch coming soon.

 

[bert]

Well Bert, given the shit show results we've been through, let's hope the arguments rolling forward are about how to keep the talent within the cap. At least those will be good problems to have.

Totally agree... There is alot of money available even if they don't spend to the cap they just have to be smart about it. Tierney, Zaitsev alone combine for over 8 million. That number alone pays for the raises for Zub, Paul and C Brown. If tying an asset to Zaitsev means they can extend them then it's worth it. I also think if they can play White and show he value they can likely make a hockey trade with another team. That also frees up cap room to sign players like Norris, Stutzle and Formenton. They just have to be strategic and smart with their money and evaluations.

Going into the 2023/24 season these numbers seem reasonable.

Tkachuk 8.2 Norris 7 Batherson 4.9
Formenton 4 Stutzle 8 Brown 5
Paul 2.5 Pinto 3 2022 1st rd draft 2022 1.1
Kelly .9 Kastelic .9 Watson 2
Gambrell .9 Sokolov 1

Sanderson 1 Zub 5.5
Chabot 8 Thomson 2
Holden 1.5 JBD 1.5
Kleven .9

Murray 6
Gus 1.5

Sitting around 78 million, at this point the core should be pushing to contend and outside of Sanderson will be locked up long term. I think the cap is likely moved up by then but not sure if Melnyk will spend. The next season is when the hard decisions start. However Murray's contract expires. So if they wanna go cheap on goalies and pay Sanderson then so be it.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Is 4.5 - 5m × 4 years doable for Zub? Methot's last contract was 4.9m. Is that a fair comparison?

Cap is much higher than it was in Methot's day. He'll get at least 5.5 mil.

 

[SensFactor]

Zub needs to be extended. Maybe something like 4 x 4.85M.

 

[stempniaksen]

He'll basically turn 28 right as his extension would kick in right? In a dream world you don't give him more than 4 years.

It's not Eugene's MO, but if you front loaded Zub's deal you could actually kind of even out the cash commitment long term, as Zub's salary would scale down when Batherson's jumps to $6.5/season and Stutzle/Sanderson start to get paid like the talents they are. Could do something like 4 X $5 mil and have the structure pay out as follows (7,6,4,3). Absolute worst case scenario he becomes palatable for another team to take on in that last year.

 

[aragorn]

I think as the prospects come on some of the older players will be moved out to make room & fit under the cap. I hope EM will spend more as he said he would as the team gets better & these young guys need new contracts.

They should be rid of most of their UFAs by the TDL or the end of the yr which should free up over $8 mil that can be used to increase the salaries of those players who need new contracts & are part of the future team after this yr. Next yr the same should apply as Watson & Holden come off the books & clear $2. 8 mil & we'll see what happens to Zaitsev's future here next yr.

There really are only 3 contracts that are question marks in whether they will re-sign them or not in Paul this yr & C. Brown & Zub the yr after. It will really piss a lot of people off if Zub is not re-igned because they don't want to buy out Zaitsev when they know he will be gone the yr after. However, they may not have a choice if they have to live within a budget & go with a cheaper younger players to stay within that budget. And they have two young RDs that will eventually have to be inserted into the roster or traded at some point.

 

[JD1]

Buy tickets boys. I think we've got a hell of a team coming. We need revenue to support it

 

[aragorn]

Buy tickets boys. I think we've got a hell of a team coming. We need revenue to support it

Going to see the Kraken.

 

[JD1]

Going to see the Kraken.

I'm going to see the Habs game this weekend

 

[Sens Vader]

back where he belongs, on the top pair with Chabot

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

back where he belongs, on the top pair with Chabot

It would be nice to stop that revolving door and identify a solid partner for Chabot. Zub is that guy right now. Solid proven D depth is important for this team to take the next step. It would be fantastic if we could bring in another Holden type so one could partner with Sanderson.

While Zub would be a good partner for Sanderson I don't think either JBD or Thomson or Guenette are really ready to ideally partner with Chabot on the top pairing and Zaitsev should not be the answer.

 

[aragorn]

It would be nice to stop that revolving door and identify a solid partner for Chabot. Zub is that guy right now. Solid proven D depth is important for this team to take the next step. It would be fantastic if we could bring in another Holden type so one could partner with Sanderson.

While Zub would be a good partner for Sanderson I don't think either JBD or Thomson or Guenette are really ready to ideally partner with Chabot on the top pairing and Zaitsev should not be the answer.

I assume you mean a proven veteran, but I would argue that they have enough pieces in the mix now to carry them over for a couple of yrs. If they were to draft Jiricek/Nemec RD given they mature & can get up to NHL speed rather quickly either could be the answer in future on D. This also allows them to fit JBD/Thomson into lower pairings & roles they may be better suited for eventually. There are a few defencemen playing in the league now that were only drafted a yr or two ago.

There are a few older UFA vets they might be able to trade for at the TDL or sign for next season, but so far that hasn't really worked out for them & what are they going to do about Zaitsev? And looking at next yr's defence they look kind of soft & will need Zub, Holden & Zaitsev to be very tough to play against & none of them are fighters. It wouldn't surprise me if J. Brown was re-signed as depth or a similar player who they can bring in for tough games.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I assume you mean a proven veteran, but I would argue that they have enough pieces in the mix now to carry them over for a couple of yrs. If they were to draft Jiricek/Nemec RD given they mature & can get up to NHL speed rather quickly either could be the answer in future on D. This also allows them to fit JBD/Thomson into lower pairings & roles they may be better suited for eventually. There are a few defencemen playing in the league now that were only drafted a yr or two ago.

There are a few older UFA vets they might be able to trade for at the TDL or sign for next season, but so far that hasn't really worked out for them & what are they going to do about Zaitsev? And looking at next yr's defence they look kind of soft & will need Zub, Holden & Zaitsev to be very tough to play against & none of them are fighters. It wouldn't surprise me if J. Brown was re-signed as depth or a similar player who they can bring in for tough games.

Ideally I would like a solid top 4D like
Chabot Zub
Chychrun Holden
Sanderson x

That calibre. We have that top 4 I think we can compete in the playoffs.
Now if its another Holden Calibre (e.g. Giordano (UFA)) vs a Chychrun I think we are close to being competitors

Running next season with something like

Chabot Thomson/JBD/Jiricek
Sanderson Zub
Holden JBD/Zaitsev/Brann/Thomson/Jiricek

We may be able to knock on the door for a wild card but its not good enough to playoff competitors ... they'd get eaten up in the playoffs.

 

[aragorn]

Ideally I would like a solid top 4D like
Chabot Zub
Chychrun Holden
Sanderson x

That calibre. We have that top 4 I think we can compete in the playoffs.
Now if its another Holden Calibre (e.g. Giordano (UFA)) vs a Chychrun I think we are close to being competitors

Running next season with something like

Chabot Thomson/JBD/Jiricek
Sanderson Zub
Holden JBD/Zaitsev/Brann/Thomson/Jiricek

We may be able to knock on the door for a wild card but its not good enough to playoff competitors ... they'd get eaten up in the playoffs.

It's going to be difficult for them to move both MDZ & Zaitsev between now & the start of next season given the term & money left on both. I'd be surprised if they are in on Chychrun as it seems to be expensive for them & could include our 1st which would negate Jiricek unless they would take a 2023 1st. I really want them to draft Jiricek as I see him as solidifying this defence for yrs to come & he brings some size & nastiness as does Kleven when he gets here which IMO they need on the back end.