Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Sens of Anarchy]

So what is this non-sense going around about trading Zub? Any substance to this?

I really don't see it happening ... How can you sell to your fanbase that you're pushing for a more competitive team and at the same time trade your most reliable defensemen.

It's cool that we have JBD and Thomson but we shouldn't rely on them that much. Best case scenario you have Zub on the top pair with Chabot next season or with Sanderson. He would be an incredible partner for Sanderson. The value he brings to the team is above 5M a year fairly easily IMO. Even Holden is worth more than 1.3 from my perspective.

Chabot - Brannstrom/JBD
Sanderson - Zub
Holden - JBD/Thomson/Brannstrom
J.Brown

Zaitsev needs to go...

When you know 100% that JBD/Thomson can provide Zub type of stability on the backend then you may consider moving him - maybe even next season but now? No chance IMO.

Absolutely. JBD and Thomson are ok ..neither are dominant in the AHL at this point. No big rush there. Zub is so much better than either of them at this point and should not be moved if this team is serious about taking another step. IMO they could add on D . Zaitsev has to go. DJ loves the guy but ..Dorion has to take him away if he can.

 

[Cosmix]

Can’t be worrying about budget now. It’s close to cap spending time.

I doubt that spending to the cap happens in Ottawa during the next FYOUS timeframe.

 

[GCK]

I doubt that spending to the cap happens in Ottawa during the next FYOUS timeframe.

It’s either cap spending or start trading off assets as soon as next year.

 

[Cosmix]

It’s either cap spending or start trading off assets as soon as next year.

Does Melnyk have the capital to spend to the cap, given the Covid crisis impacts, small Canadian market, Canadian dollar revenue stream, etc.? I don't think so.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Does Melnyk have the capital to spend to the cap, given the Covid crisis impacts, small Canadian market, Canadian dollar revenue stream, etc.? I don't think so.

I would have to say no, we definitely shouldn’t be a cap team next year, to many core pieces to sign soon.

 

[GCK]

Does Melnyk have the capital to spend to the cap, given the Covid crisis impacts, small Canadian market, Canadian dollar revenue stream, etc.? I don't think so.

I don’t think he has a choice.

 

[GCK]

I would have to say no, we definitely shouldn’t be a cap team next year, to many core pieces to sign soon.

Not next year but close starting 2023/24

 

[JD1]

With Sanderson, JBD, Brannstrom and Thomson all on ELC or low value contracts we should be able to allocate the money to Zub IMO. Only him and Chabot would be paid like top 4 Dmen for now. We know how important it is to have stability on the backend. Rolling on the right side with JBD, Thomson and whoever would be risky. Zub is good enough that we wouldn't have any issues moving him at some point during the contract if need be and all teams are looking for players exactly like him.

They should consider unloading Zaitsev to make space for him, MDZ as well, I would rather we sign Zub than Paul also. To me he's that important. 5-6M for a player like him is very fair. These players are nearly impossible to acquire via trade unless you pay up or draft them. There's a lack of good dman in this league.

I know you're not saying we shouldn't sign him or anything but to me he should be priority #1. If I'm the GM I do everything to get rid of the trash we have to make space for him, hell buy out White if you need to.

Zub is already signed next year.

Brannstrom's ELC is finished this year. Jbd's is finished next year.

Norris needs to be signed this summer. Money will be allocated to Stuetzle before Zub.

I agree on Zub as a player. But I wouldn't be shocked is all I'm saying if they're running with

Chabot
Sanderson
Jbd
Thomson

With no room to pay Zub that kind of money in 2023-24

 

[Cosmix]

I don’t think he has a choice.

He always has a choice. He can direct Dorion to sign players for affordable salaries and to trade players seeking higher salaries for picks, prospects and lesser players.

 

[Cosmix]

He always has a choice. He can direct Dorion to sign players for affordable salaries and to trade players seeking higher salaries for picks, prospects and lesser players.

Many of us talk about the "core" players on the team. I think, due to budget issues, we will have a smaller core than other richer teams do.

 

[BankStreetParade]

How do you propose replacing Zub at a lower cost ?

It's not ideal but you let Thomson and JBD run with it and you continue looking for trade targets and FAs from outside the NHL (just like we got Zub). I just don't see any way this team busts their budget on a stay-at-home D like Zub. They haven't given that kind of a money to a secondary star in a long time and with the projected budget for 2023-24, there's likely very little room for him. Hell, maybe you trade him for a cheaper RHD replacement to a team who think they're a Zub away from winning the Cup?

Tkachuk 8.20 - Norris 7 - Batherson 4.975
Formenton 3 - Stutzle 8.5 - C. Brown 4.5
Greig 0.9 - Pinto 3.5 - White 4.75
Paul 2.5 - Gambrell 1.5 - UFA 1.5

Chabot 8 - Zaitsev 4.5
Sanderson 8 - Zub 5.5
Brannstrom 1.9 - JBD/Thomson 0.9-1.5

Murray 6.25
Backup 1.25

That's about an $88 million cap hit without carrying any extra bodies on the roster. I'm not sure I see a realistic scenario where we are spending that much on the roster. I'd love to believe we will but I'm not willing to buy it until it happens.

Even with some cost reductions like buying out White (replaced with 1-1.5 player), moving Brannstrom (replaced at 1) and letting C. Brown (replaced at 2.25) walk in free agency while replacing them with cheaper options we're still sitting close to $83 million.

Only route I see to keeping Zub at that salary range is offloading Zaitsev without taking any money back (in other words, an impossibility).

 

[GCK]

He always has a choice. He can direct Dorion to sign players for affordable salaries and to trade players seeking higher salaries for picks, prospects and lesser players.

We can’t draw flies as it is is. That would be the end of Melnyk or the franchise or both.

 

[GCK]

It's not ideal but you let Thomson and JBD run with it and you continue looking for trade targets and FAs from outside the NHL (just like we got Zub). I just don't see any way this team busts their budget on a stay-at-home D like Zub. They haven't given that kind of a money to a secondary star in a long time and with the projected budget for 2023-24, there's likely very little room for him. Hell, maybe you trade him for a cheaper RHD replacement to a team who think they're a Zub away from winning the Cup?

Tkachuk 8.20 - Norris 7 - Batherson 4.975
Formenton 3 - Stutzle 8.5 - C. Brown 4.5
Greig 0.9 - Pinto 3.5 - White 4.75
Paul 2.5 - Gambrell 1.5 - UFA 1.5

Chabot 8 - Zaitsev 4.5
Sanderson 8 - Zub 5.5
Brannstrom 1.9 - JBD/Thomson 0.9-1.5

Murray 6.25
Backup 1.25

That's about an $88 million cap hit without carrying any extra bodies on the roster. I'm not sure I see a realistic scenario where we are spending that much on the roster. I'd love to believe we will but I'm not willing to buy it until it happens.

Even with some cost reductions like buying out White (replaced with 1-1.5 player), moving Brannstrom (replaced at 1) and letting C. Brown (replaced at 2.25) walk in free agency while replacing them with cheaper options we're still sitting close to $83 million.

Only route I see to keeping Zub at that salary range is offloading Zaitsev without taking any money back (in other words, an impossibility).

Murray, Zaitsev are up before Sanderson so that’s that. You overpaid a few players and underpaid a couple. You would need to run a 3M 4th line. It’s very doable. About 25 GMs manage it. We are also about 3 years from a massive cap jump.

 

[GCK]

It's not ideal but you let Thomson and JBD run with it and you continue looking for trade targets and FAs from outside the NHL (just like we got Zub). I just don't see any way this team busts their budget on a stay-at-home D like Zub. They haven't given that kind of a money to a secondary star in a long time and with the projected budget for 2023-24, there's likely very little room for him. Hell, maybe you trade him for a cheaper RHD replacement to a team who think they're a Zub away from winning the Cup?

Tkachuk 8.20 - Norris 7 - Batherson 4.975
Formenton 3 - Stutzle 8.5 - C. Brown 4.5
Greig 0.9 - Pinto 3.5 - White 4.75
Paul 2.5 - Gambrell 1.5 - UFA 1.5

Chabot 8 - Zaitsev 4.5
Sanderson 8 - Zub 5.5
Brannstrom 1.9 - JBD/Thomson 0.9-1.5

Murray 6.25
Backup 1.25

That's about an $88 million cap hit without carrying any extra bodies on the roster. I'm not sure I see a realistic scenario where we are spending that much on the roster. I'd love to believe we will but I'm not willing to buy it until it happens.

Even with some cost reductions like buying out White (replaced with 1-1.5 player), moving Brannstrom (replaced at 1) and letting C. Brown (replaced at 2.25) walk in free agency while replacing them with cheaper options we're still sitting close to $83 million.

Only route I see to keeping Zub at that salary range is offloading Zaitsev without taking any money back (in other words, an impossibility).

I think keeping Zub over a guy like C Brown is a far, far better use of dollars. I like Brown if there’s a choice to be made it’s a no brainer to me.

 

[Yak]

It's not ideal but you let Thomson and JBD run with it and you continue looking for trade targets and FAs from outside the NHL (just like we got Zub). I just don't see any way this team busts their budget on a stay-at-home D like Zub. They haven't given that kind of a money to a secondary star in a long time and with the projected budget for 2023-24, there's likely very little room for him. Hell, maybe you trade him for a cheaper RHD replacement to a team who think they're a Zub away from winning the Cup?

Tkachuk 8.20 - Norris 7 - Batherson 4.975
Formenton 3 - Stutzle 8.5 - C. Brown 4.5
Greig 0.9 - Pinto 3.5 - White 4.75
Paul 2.5 - Gambrell 1.5 - UFA 1.5

Chabot 8 - Zaitsev 4.5
Sanderson 8 - Zub 5.5
Brannstrom 1.9 - JBD/Thomson 0.9-1.5

Murray 6.25
Backup 1.25

That's about an $88 million cap hit without carrying any extra bodies on the roster. I'm not sure I see a realistic scenario where we are spending that much on the roster. I'd love to believe we will but I'm not willing to buy it until it happens.

Even with some cost reductions like buying out White (replaced with 1-1.5 player), moving Brannstrom (replaced at 1) and letting C. Brown (replaced at 2.25) walk in free agency while replacing them with cheaper options we're still sitting close to $83 million.

Only route I see to keeping Zub at that salary range is offloading Zaitsev without taking any money back (in other words, an impossibility).

Their plenty of room for Zub. He is the type of defensemen that don't come along all time. He retires a Senator if it's up to me.

Your math is bit agressive but let's buyout White this summer. Zaitsev is easily replaced aka via trade or buyout. We may need to bridge a few contracts till a couple bad ones expire.

 

[GCK]

Their plenty of room for Zub. He is the type of defensemen that don't come along all time. He retires a Senator if it's up to me.

Your math is bit agressive but let's buyout White this summer. Zaitsev is easily replaced aka via trade or buyout. We may need to bridge a few contracts till a couple bad ones expire.

Zaitsev isn’t a buyout candidate, the Leafs built SBs into his contract for some stupid reason.

 

[bert]

Zub is already signed next year.

Brannstrom's ELC is finished this year. Jbd's is finished next year.

Norris needs to be signed this summer. Money will be allocated to Stuetzle before Zub.

I agree on Zub as a player. But I wouldn't be shocked is all I'm saying if they're running with

Chabot
Sanderson
Jbd
Thomson

With no room to pay Zub that kind of money in 2023-24

Why are they paying Thomson and JBD?.... This team absolutely has to pay Zub. Trade JBD or Thomson if they have to make this choice.

The sens don't need to buy out White to get rid of his contract.

If they need to they can tie an asset Zaitsev to get rid of him.

There is no scenario where this team is paying Sanderson 8 million while Zaitsev is making 4.5. Zaitsevs contract will be off the books once Sanderson is off his ELC.

I think people are living a fantasy if they think that Melnyk is spending to the cap.

 

[JD1]

Why are they paying Thomson and JBD?.... This team absolutely has to pay Zub. Trade JBD or Thomson if they have to make this choice.

The sens don't need to buy out White to get rid of his contract.

If they need to they can tie an asset Zaitsev to get rid of him.

There is no scenario where this team is paying Sanderson 8 million while Zaitsev is making 4.5. Zaitsevs contract will be off the books once Sanderson is off his ELC.

I think people are living a fantasy if they think that Melnyk is spending to the cap.

Yes, Zaitsev is off the books by the time they need to pay Sanderson. My point was related to Zub though. If they're paying Sanderson and Chabot big money, is their room to pay Zub 5+ a year? I'm talking in 23-24. That's when he needs a new deal. That's 110 games from now and jbd and Thomson should be ready to enter their primes.

I'm not knocking Zub. I'm looking at chess pieces on the board. I just don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we sign him long term, nor is it a foregone conclusion that we need to

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, Zaitsev is off the books by the time they need to pay Sanderson. My point was related to Zub though. If they're paying Sanderson and Chabot big money, is their room to pay Zub 5+ a year? I'm talking in 23-24. That's when he needs a new deal. That's 110 games from now and jbd and Thomson should be ready to enter their primes.

I'm not knocking Zub. I'm looking at chess pieces on the board. I just don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we sign him long term, nor is it a foregone conclusion that we need to

It's a good question. I think to be a contending team, you're likely budgeting between 20-25 mil on the backend, some teams might come in a touch below that or a touch above but that seems like the target range.

If Sanderson hits his potention, with Chabot and Sanderson eating ~15-17 mil of out backend budget, Zub at 5 puts us at 20-21, leaving 4-5 to fill out 4 spots and that's if we are on the higher end.

I really like Zub, but I think if we have two 8 mil dmen, he's more of a luxury than necessity, and we're probably better off trying to fill things out with cheaper options like Holden, and prospects like JBD, Thomson, Kleven, and maybe Guenette

edit:it's worth pointing out that while I'm very high on Sanderson's potential, i might be getting ahead of myself with 8 mil a year for his next deal. He's not as flashy as Chabot, which might result in a slower assent in contract demands, we also might go shorter term and have a lower cap hit, maybe he gets a deal like Slavin, which would make fitting him in far easier, maybe Zub comes cheaper than 5, who knows.

 

[Sweatred]

We should explore trading everyone - including Zub. This team will need to sell off the odd contract moving forward. We need to selectively restock our prospect cupboard and keep our payroll below $80 million.

Everyone loves Zub but our D core has no size. He has a similar defensive skill set/playing style that Chabot, Lassi, JBD, Sanderson, Brann all do.

DJ’s dressed Brown every game because he wants size and power to defend/block.

We are going to have a “Brown” type D in our D group next year … one of Brann, JBD, Lassi, Zub needs to go and selling high on Zub can restock some prospects for the next wave and free money for Norris, Stutzle, Form, Pinto, Sanderson etc .

 

[Cosmix]

We can’t draw flies as it is is. That would be the end of Melnyk or the franchise or both.

I agree it would not be ideal or desirable; however, we would still have a team to cheer for and some hope.

 

[Cosmix]

Zaitsev isn’t a buyout candidate, the Leafs built SBs into his contract for some stupid reason.

And our GM consumed it.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Murray, Zaitsev are up before Sanderson so that’s that. You overpaid a few players and underpaid a couple. You would need to run a 3M 4th line. It’s very doable. About 25 GMs manage it. We are also about 3 years from a massive cap jump.

Definitely a fair point on the 4th line but I always operate under the assumption that we have to overpay the really good 4th line vets to come and play in Ottawa. I suppose we could run with a fairly young 4th line and shift out another million from the budget I guessed at. The problem is whether there's a cap jump coming or not I don't think the Senators are going to be along for that ride dollar for dollar. There will be hard decisions and I think a guy like Zub is more likely to be traded to a team to acquire a cheaper RHD than to commit $5-6 million per over 5-6 years.

 

[Big Muddy]

Absolutely. JBD and Thomson are ok ..neither are dominant in the AHL at this point. No big rush there. Zub is so much better than either of them at this point and should not be moved if this team is serious about taking another step. IMO they could add on D . Zaitsev has to go. DJ loves the guy but ..Dorion has to take him away if he can.

Yes, getting rid of Zaitsev and his contract would facilitate an extension for Zub.

Sadly, we don't hear anything about Zaitsev being on the block. Would be nice to hear they are exploring that option and seeing if there's some way of moving him. Hope springs eternal.

 

[Sweatred]

Chabot makes $10 mill starting on 2024 - I’d consider trading him to free up money to keep x2 $5mill players.

Brann is better on the PP, Sanderson projects as the minutes guy…

These are the tough decisions a low revenue team needs to make and a trade for x5 assets could carry the team another 5+ years (see EK trade).