Player Discussion Artem Zub (D) Part 2 [Extended 4 years @ $4.6M]

[Slippy]

I highly doubt Zub would pass up an extra 10-15M guaranteed by extending his contract by 2-3 years.

Dorion explained why he went 2 years for Zub. Said it lines up with JBD and Thomson being top 4 guys.

He may be right about JBD but he's kidding himself with Lassi. Plan is to replace Zub internally and let a 27YR old 2nd pairing D walk in 2 years.

It's a really stupid plan that is going to backfire when becomes obvious even to management that Lassi isn't what they think he is.

Yes, you're plan is to double the salary and double the term. I think it is smarter to be a little conservative.

Dorion seems to think Lassi will be playing at a top 4 level in 2 years. With Zaitsev being an "elite defender" and JBD also playing at a top 4 level, it's clear the plan is to move on from Zub in 2 years.

This plan is really stupid because Zub is still young and valuable and should not be allowed to walk for zero assets just because we have a couple prospects coming through the pipeline. It's also dumb because Lassi won't ever be Zub level or probably even JBD level.

Hopefully we re-sign Zub after Lassi almost certainly proves he's not capable of replacing him, but we'll have to pay him UFA money when we'll hopefully be contending, when we could have likely gotten a discount by taking a chance and offering him term now.

Glad, you've made your mind up on Lassi Thomson, a 20 year old just recently drafted in the first round. It is like some defenseman take a few more years to develop. Where was Zub at 5 years ago? Probably playing and developing despite never being drafted.

And yeah, Thomson might not pan out. Whether he does or not, the Sens can still try and sign Zub. The Sens are not "planning" "Let's only sign Zub for 2 years so we can lose him for nothing. I'm sure someone will come along. If not, meh."

Click to read more...

 

[God Says No]

Good deal. I initially read it as 5M per, which seemed crazy. 2.5M seems right, with the minor nitpick that something longer would have been better.

 

[BondraTime]

Discounting a 20 years old defenseman that looked fantastic early on, struggled mightily, but now is improving again. Bold.
- signed, a not so great Lassi Thomson fan.

The Sens signed Artem Zub for 2.5M. After that, if he's willing to stay in Ottawa, he can extend for the 3.5-4.5M he would have gotten on a long term deal now. Terrific contract.
- signed, a not so great Pierre Dorion fan.

Don’t follow this at all, what does it mean?

 

[Korpse]

Hard to say what happens in 2023-2024. Turn over every 2 years has been massive for Ottawa in the last half decade, even going back to pre EK times with Spezza/Heatley/Fisher/Vermette losses.

You could argue a little stability would be nice considering all of our turn over but I'll say Zub has shown what he has and having him for two more years at a discount is a good move that can't hurt the team the way having him at 4.5 mil in 3 years might.

Not that I think a 4.5/3 year deal would be detrimental or that there will be plenty of turnover in the coming years but there's obviously cap/budget considerations here as well. We will see how the Tkachuk and Batherson contracts play out but there's just so many guys we have to sign between now and then. Norris, Formenton, Stutzle, Pinto and perhaps Connor Brown. JBD and Thomson will both be coming off their ELC 2 years from now. Maybe at that time we need to move on from Zub and give his place in the lineup to a younger and cheaper player to keep the core forwards around, maybe he signs another contract when that one is up. It's really difficult to project where this team will be in two years. At the very least this contracts allows flexibility.

 

[Slippy]

Discounting a 20 years old defenseman that looked fantastic early on, struggled mightily, but now is improving again. Bold.
- signed, a not so great Lassi Thomson fan.

The Sens signed Artem Zub for 2.5M. After that, if he's willing to stay in Ottawa, he can extend for the 3.5-4.5M he would have gotten on a long term deal now. Terrific contract.
- signed, a not so great Pierre Dorion fan.

Especially in arguing for free agent defenseman that wasn't drafted and took until he was 25 to catch the eye of NHL GMs.

 

[Wondercarrot]

I'm pretty sure that's what happened. His agent went as few years as possible to set him up for a payday.

i mean really, this make the most sense.
He can love it here, and still make smart business decisions lol

 

[Asquaredx2]

2.5M is a steal for how good he is. It also gives us a longer evaluation window before committing to him longer term at higher $$.

I was hoping for like a 4-5 year deal but this is definitely a fine outcome IMO. Good job Dorion.

 

[Liver King]

I was expecting 8 years at 10m

Lets go ZUB!!!! What a beautyy

 

[SpezDispenser]

i mean really, this make the most sense.
He can love it here, and still make smart business decisions lol

For him? Absolutely it's the smart thing to do.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Yes, you're plan is to double the salary and double the term. I think it is smarter to be a little conservative.

Not double. Somewhere between 3-4M x 4-5YRs would be good for both sides given comparables like DeMelo, Gavrikov, etc...

Glad, you've made your mind up on Lassi Thomson, a 20 year old just recently drafted in the first round. It is like some defenseman take a few more years to develop. Where was Zub at 5 years ago? Probably playing and developing despite never being drafted.

And yeah, Thomson might not pan out. Whether he does or not, the Sens can still try and sign Zub. The Sens are not "planning" "Let's only sign Zub for 2 years so we can lose him for nothing. I'm sure someone will come along. If not, meh."

I've made up my mind on Lassi because of the mind on Lassi. Kid has zero hockey IQ and that's not something that you can develop (eg. Ceci, Cowen).

If they do try to re-sign Zub if (or rather when) Lassi doesn't pan out, they'll need to offer him a UFA contract. Would have no leverage like they do now with his RFA status. If he continues to play at a high level he could ask for 5-6M and some team could pay it given the lack of quality right-handed D in the league. Look at the UFA contracts given to Stralman, Myers, Boychuk, etc...

Would have been far smarter to give him more money now to lock him for longer. Then if both JBD and Lassi are playing at a top 4 D level in 2 years (highly unlikely), we could trade Zub for assets to make room. He'll only be 27 at the end of his deal and has lots of good years of hockey left in him.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Not double. Somewhere between 3-4M x 4-5YRs would be good for both sides given comparables like DeMelo, Gavrikov, etc...



I've made up my mind on Lassi because of the mind on Lassi. Kid has zero hockey IQ and that's not something that you can develop (eg. Ceci, Cowen).

If they do try to re-sign Zub if (or rather when) Lassi doesn't pan out, they'll need to offer him a UFA contract. Would have no leverage like they do now with his RFA status. If he continues to play at a high level he could ask for 5-6M and some team could pay it given the lack of quality right-handed D in the league. Look at the UFA contracts given to Stralman, Myers, Boychuk, etc...

Would have been far smarter to give him more money now to lock him for longer. Then if both JBD and Lassi are playing at a top 4 D level in 2 years (highly unlikely), we could trade Zub for assets to make room. He'll only be 27 at the end of his deal and has lots of good years of hockey left in him.

i completely agree signing him at 4-5 years at $3-4 is a no brainer for ottawa but it makes no sense for Zub.
if he plays this way or even better over the next 2 years he is going to cash in as a UFA at the same term and a I’d say quite a bit more $

 

[Hale The Villain]

i completely agree signing him at 4-5 years at $3-4 is a no brainer for ottawa but it makes no sense for Zub.
if he plays this way or even better over the next 2 years he is going to cash in as a UFA at the same term and a I’d say quite a bit more $

It makes plenty of sense. It's a matter of risk and reward for him.

Do you sign a 4M x 4-5YR deal now and take the 16-20M or do you gamble on yourself and take 5M/2YRs in hopes you can get more later?

Not sure how passing up 10M+ guaranteed would be an easy decision for Zub.

Dzingel apparently passed on a deal worth even more to take his chance as a UFA and it's worked out terribly for him. Has probably lost over 10M from betting on himself. Bet he wishes he took the longer-term deal to stay in Ottawa and didn't get traded to Columbus right now.

 

[BondraTime]

It makes plenty of sense. It's a matter of risk and reward for him.

Do you sign a 4M x 4-5YR deal now and take the 16-20M or do you gamble on yourself and take 5M/2YRs in hopes you can get more later?

Not sure how passing up 10M+ guaranteed would be an easy decision for Zub.

Dzingel apparently passed on a deal worth even more to take his chance as a UFA and it's worked out terribly for him. Has probably lost over 10M from betting on himself. Bet he wishes he took the longer-term deal to stay in Ottawa and didn't get traded to Columbus right now.

Mackinnon wishes he bet on himself, signing a long term, sure thing deal cost him ~30 million.

It works both ways

 

[Hale The Villain]

Mackinnon wishes he bet on himself, signing a long term, sure thing deal cost him ~30 million.

It works both ways

True, but it's a gamble and I don't think it would be an easy decision for Zub to look a 16-20M contract in the face and decide to accept one for 5M.

 

[Slippy]

Not double. Somewhere between 3-4M x 4-5YRs would be good for both sides given comparables like DeMelo, Gavrikov, etc...



I've made up my mind on Lassi because of the mind on Lassi. Kid has zero hockey IQ and that's not something that you can develop (eg. Ceci, Cowen).

If they do try to re-sign Zub if (or rather when) Lassi doesn't pan out, they'll need to offer him a UFA contract. Would have no leverage like they do now with his RFA status. If he continues to play at a high level he could ask for 5-6M and some team could pay it given the lack of quality right-handed D in the league. Look at the UFA contracts given to Stralman, Myers, Boychuk, etc...

Would have been far smarter to give him more money now to lock him for longer. Then if both JBD and Lassi are playing at a top 4 D level in 2 years (highly unlikely), we could trade Zub for assets to make room. He'll only be 27 at the end of his deal and has lots of good years of hockey left in him.

So you're plan is to offer him UFA money now? If he is priced out of the market in two years than he more than outperformed the $2.5M he is getting, and giving him an extra 1.5-2.5M for the next couple years means you overpay now rather than later, when you are much more certain on what he will be as an NHL player.

The only leverage the Sens have is over his RFA years. They cannot make him sign longer. I find the argument strange; the Sens should treat Zub like a UFA now so they don't lose him when actually becomes one.

 

[Yak]

I think it was smart play for both sides, no problem here.

 

[Hale The Villain]

So you're plan is to offer him UFA money now? If he is priced out of the market in two years than he more than outperformed the $2.5M he is getting, and giving him an extra 1.5-2.5M for the next couple years means you overpay now rather than later, when you are much more certain on what he will be as an NHL player.

The only leverage the Sens have is over his RFA years. They cannot make him sign longer. I find the argument strange; the Sens should treat Zub like a UFA now so they don't lose him when actually becomes one.

He will almost certainly out-perform his 2.5M salary these two years, but we're not going to be a contender in 2022 or 2023. It's less important what he makes now then what he makes when we're trying to compete.

No you don't offer him 5-6M now. That's what a desperate team could do when he's a UFA to bolster their D.

You offer him something like 4M now on a mid-long term deal hoping he continues to play well and develop as a player, making it a potential steal when we're contending down the road compared to what he could make on the open market.

It's what we did with Chabot offering him 8x8 when we could have gotten him cheaper on a short bridge deal. Could have given him maybe 5-6M on a short bridge deal, but then we may have had to pay 10M a year when it was up and we would have risked him trying to leave as a free agent.

Should have followed the same strategy for Zub, although obviously for far less money and term.

 

[Wondercarrot]

True, but it's a gamble and I don't think it would be an easy decision for Zub to look a 16-20M contract in the face and decide to accept one for 5M.

to be fair you also did say 3 to 4 million as well.
I just see him as easily a 5 million defencemen in two years.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Mackinnon wishes he bet on himself, signing a long term, sure thing deal cost him ~30 million.

It works both ways

He somewhat recently (maybe last year?) was quite saying he'd take less money than expected on his next contract to ensure the team can stay competitive.

However the pandemic might have changed that!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Would have preferred a 1 or 3 /4 year deal. 2 walking him to UFA just scares me that we could lose him after 2 .. IMO he out plays that 2 year money pretty easily.

 

[PlayOn]

Would have preferred a 1 or 3 /4 year deal. 2 walking him to UFA just scares me that we could lose him after 2 .. IMO he out plays that 2 year money pretty easily.

I agree. Wouldn’t have minded 1 year to see more before committing but what can you do. Let’s hope the org is right about JBD and Thomson’s potential.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I've made up my mind on Lassi because of the mind on Lassi. Kid has zero hockey IQ and that's not something that you can develop (eg. Ceci, Cowen).

Eh, he's really turned a corner in the 2nd half of the season; both ends of the ice. I'd give him a bit more time.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I agree. Wouldn’t have minded 1 year to see more before committing but what can you do. Let’s hope the org is right about JBD and Thomson’s potential.

For me another year ends as an RFA and we get a chance to sign him and he has another show me year under his belt

Glad he signed

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Pierre just said that if they sign anyone it won’t be guys like that. They’ll be quality nhl players.

Thanks for update that’s awesome! Anyone have realistic list of FA available ?

 

[Slippy]

He will almost certainly out-perform his 2.5M salary these two years, but we're not going to be a contender in 2022 or 2023. It's less important what he makes now then what he makes when we're trying to compete.

No you don't offer him 5-6M now. That's what a desperate team could do when he's a UFA to bolster their D.

You offer him something like 4M now on a mid-long term deal hoping he continues to play well and develop as a player, making it a potential steal when we're contending down the road compared to what he could make on the open market.

It's what we did with Chabot offering him 8x8 when we could have gotten him cheaper on a short bridge deal. Could have given him maybe 5-6M on a short bridge deal, but then we may have had to pay 10M a year when it was up and we would have risked him trying to leave as a free agent.

Should have followed the same strategy for Zub, although obviously for far less money and term.

You yourself suggested $4-5M I believe. Even if not, $4M still means you're overpaying by $1.5M the next 2 years. If he's worth $4-5M in a couple years than give it to him. But oh wait maybe another team will give him that. Then offer him more than the competitor. If you're okay with overpaying now, then you should be in a couple of years.

But do it now because you are "hoping he continues to develop and play" at a high level. Just like they did with Chabot. Except Chabot was a highly touted player since he was drafted. He has been expected to be good for a while and the early performance in the NHL indicated he could be better than expected. That was after two seasons in the league. Zub is a 25 (26 when next season starts) year old undrafted player that took some time to reach where he is now. He has played approximately 40 games total. He is far less likely to improve a huge amount.

Listen, I don't like feeling like I am arguing against Zub. I just find the negativity on this signing confusing. The biggest reason for that is my belief that Zub wasn't signing anything longer than a 2 year deal. As much as the Senators would have possibly liked to have him longer. He was either going to sign two consecutive one year deals or the two year deal he did sign.

After the criticism for White and Murray's deal I am surprised there are people advocating Dorion should have signed him for more years and more AAV.