Value of: Andrei Kuzmenko

[oceanchild]

Ok, back to your regularly scheduled programming!

Dobson is 3 years younger, is on his too low contract for longer, is larger and the team is currently outscoring the opposition at more than a 2-1 pace with him on the ice. He’s going to get his share of Norris votes this season. No disrespect to Hronek as it seems like he’s been great, but his defensive partner (who will get more Norris votes) has 34 more points than Dobson’s which is like 1.2 points a game. We don’t even have a forward with 30 points. Even if you consider their impact exactly equal (it isn’t) Dobson would still be more valuable than Hronek based on age and contract alone.

Pageau is a defensively responsible center that would have scored 40 goals over a full season had he had the same clearly unsustainable 27% shooting percentage Kuzmenko had last season and is signed for a little less. And would still be a center.

Vancouver adds ++ to the original proposal and the Isles still likely decline.

Pageau is a cap dump in my eyes.

And I agree that Dobson is younger, he also plays in front of the better tended and with the better D group. I don’t think his value is significantly higher than Hronek at this time.

 

[Canucks LB]

He’s starting to feel it again, don’t sell low on a player with this type of ceiling, unless you’re getting a significant package

 

[impaaaaaact]

Pageau is a cap dump in my eyes.

And I agree that Dobson is younger, he also plays in front of the better tended and with the better D group. I don’t think his value is significantly higher than Hronek at this time.

Pageau isn’t a cap dump. He’s probably 1.5M overpaid. He plays our toughest minutes and does so admirably.

Hronek is playing with the literal Norris frontrunner, I’m not sure how you can argue Dobson is playing with a better D partner, and half of our D core is on the IR. The fact that you’re even offering up Hronek is indicative of the fact that their values aren’t on the same level. I don’t know one isles fan that would include Dobson in any trade offer right now. They may be close in points but they’re really not very close in value IMO.

 

[oceanchild]

Pageau isn’t a cap dump. He’s probably 1.5M overpaid. He plays our toughest minutes and does so admirably.

Hronek is playing with the literal Norris frontrunner, I’m not sure how you can argue Dobson is playing with a better D partner, and half of our D core is on the IR. The fact that you’re even offering up Hronek is indicative of the fact that their values aren’t on the same level. I don’t know one isles fan that would include Dobson in any trade offer right now. They may be close in points but they’re really not very close in value IMO.

It’s the difference in cap hits that interest me, I think they are close as players.

Kuz has value and as you say Pageau is overpaid by around 30%.

 

[impaaaaaact]

It’s the difference in cap hits that interest me, I think they are close as players.

Kuz has value and as you say Pageau is overpaid by around 30%.

Pageau is overpaid by about 1.5M and Dobson is underpaid by about 6M. It just doesn’t make sense for us. It has probably gone under the radar as we’re a smaller market team, but Dobson has evolved into the 1RHD he was drafted to be. If we are dealing him and our center who takes our top defensive assignments, it would need to be for scoring 1C who can also handle those assignments. Barkov maybe? Which is why it just doesn’t make sense for us to start thinking about trading Dobson

 

[oceanchild]

Pageau is overpaid by about 1.5M and Dobson is underpaid by about 6M. It just doesn’t make sense for us. It has probably gone under the radar as we’re a smaller market team, but Dobson has evolved into the 1RHD he was drafted to be. If we are dealing him and our center who takes our top defensive assignments, it would need to be for scoring 1C who can also handle those assignments. Barkov maybe? Which is why it just doesn’t make sense for us to start thinking about trading Dobson

You also have two RHD signed long term and could use some scoring.

 

[impaaaaaact]

You also have two RHD signed long term and could use some scoring.

Somehow I don't think the 1 goal difference between Kuzmenko/Hronek and Pageau/Dobson would put us over the top, but it would surely leave us without a 3C and with a major downgrade at RHD. Like I said, Vancouver adds ++ and Isles still say no, this offer makes no sense for us.

 

[elitepete]

Somehow I don't think the 1 goal difference between Kuzmenko/Hronek and Pageau/Dobson would put us over the top, but it would surely leave us without a 3C and with a major downgrade at RHD. Like I said, Vancouver adds ++ and Isles still say no, this offer makes no sense for us.

The only trade with the NYI that makes sense is around one of their rd not named Dobson. Mayfield for Kuzzy?

 

[oceanchild]

Somehow I don't think the 1 goal difference between Kuzmenko/Hronek and Pageau/Dobson would put us over the top, but it would surely leave us without a 3C and with a major downgrade at RHD. Like I said, Vancouver adds ++ and Isles still say no, this offer makes no sense for us.

Kuzmenko is seeming the other side of the coin on shooting percentage and has had a tough start to the year. He’s a 30 goal guy, who is also having to deal with a change to the structure of the power play that has pulled him to the sidewall and not the front of the net and has struggled with that transition. In Vancouver he played the front and Bo played the sidewall, it would put him back in the place he did so well with the player that he did it well with. Your speaking about a moment in time, I’m looking at the next couple years and likely outcome. Let’s look at this again at the end of the year and see if it’s that close.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Kuzmenko is seeming the other side of the coin on shooting percentage and has had a tough start to the year. He’s a 30 goal guy, who is also having to deal with a change to the structure of the power play that has pulled him to the sidewall and not the front of the net and has struggled with that transition. In Vancouver he played the front and Bo played the sidewall, it would put him back in the place he did so well with the player that he did it well with. Your speaking about a moment in time, I’m looking at the next couple years and likely outcome. Let’s look at this again at the end of the year and see if it’s that close.

Look, I promise I'm not trying to be difficult here, but there's really no proof at all that he's a 30 goal guy. He shot almost 3x the league average shooting percentage last year and hit 39... that puts him around 15 if he just regresses back to the mean. I can't claim to watch Canucks games but I can see that he's shooting 15% and has 6 goals which leads me to believe he is not getting pucks on net. There are reports that he's fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. He isn't signed to some sweetheart deal. He's scored in back to back games so maybe he's starting to right the ship and I hope he does. We're still not trading Noah Dobson tho lolol

The only trade with the NYI that makes sense is around one of their rd not named Dobson. Mayfield for Kuzzy?

yeah, I'd do this to get out of Mayfield's batshit crazy contract but I don't think Lou got his reputation by signing guys to 7 year contracts and then shipping them 3,000 miles away to a different country within a couple of months

 

[innitfam]

The only trade with the NYI that makes sense is around one of their rd not named Dobson. Mayfield for Kuzzy?

That's a pretty bad trade for Vancouver. Mayfield is not a difference maker and is signed for eternity.

Not to say he isn't a decent defenseman but that's pretty much all he is.

 

[Konk]

Dobson is as untouchable as it gets for NYI.

 

[Ace of Hades]

The only trade with the NYI that makes sense is around one of their rd not named Dobson. Mayfield for Kuzzy?

Terrible for Vancity.

 

[elitepete]

Isn’t Mayfield a top 4 d still? Had no idea he’s signed for 7 years though.

 

[deleted user]

He's still a good player. I think the Canucks would need a big, big overpay to be comfortable moving him.

 

[oceanchild]

Look, I promise I'm not trying to be difficult here, but there's really no proof at all that he's a 30 goal guy. He shot almost 3x the league average shooting percentage last year and hit 39... that puts him around 15 if he just regresses back to the mean. I can't claim to watch Canucks games but I can see that he's shooting 15% and has 6 goals which leads me to believe he is not getting pucks on net. There are reports that he's fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. He isn't signed to some sweetheart deal. He's scored in back to back games so maybe he's starting to right the ship and I hope he does. We're still not trading Noah Dobson tho lolol

yeah, I'd do this to get out of Mayfield's batshit crazy contract but I don't think Lou got his reputation by signing guys to 7 year contracts and then shipping them 3,000 miles away to a different country within a couple of months

No proof, not trying to be difficult… he got 39 last year. That counts and you can change it no matter what rational you may apply. It’s will forever be a recorded number in the NHL archives. Now your just making things up.

Look I under stand why NYI wouldn’t do it, have no issue with that. I just think the value is closer than you.

 

[impaaaaaact]

No proof, not trying to be difficult… he got 39 last year. That counts and you can change it no matter what rational you may apply. It’s will forever be a recorded number in the NHL archives. Now your just making things up.

Look I under stand why NYI wouldn’t do it, have no issue with that. I just think the value is closer than you.

You already walked back the 39 to 30 and I was just showing where walking it all the way back would actually land him. 27% is an absurd number and shooting percentage isn’t a sticky stat. If Mat Barzal happened to be shooting 27% right now he’d be leading the league in goals and on pace for 70. So would Brock Nelson. Gretzky shot 25% the year he scored 92 goals. Kuzmenko should probably be a 20-25 goal winger shooting at a 15% clip. He’s currently on pace for less than that while shooting at that %. He has 17 points on the team averaging the most points per game.

All this to say, there are clear and present dangers here for any team thinking about acquiring him. When he’s not scoring at a historic rate, who is he? Is he the guy we’re seeing now or something more? Those are the questions I think a GM planning on giving up assets for him needs to ask themselves, and based on the data we have right now I think it would take a little bit of a leap of faith to feel comfortable penciling him in as a consistent 30 goal guy even with the 39 on his resume.

 

[impaaaaaact]

That's a pretty bad trade for Vancouver. Mayfield is not a difference maker and is signed for eternity.

Not to say he isn't a decent defenseman but that's pretty much all he is.

He’s been horrendous so far this season actually. It’s pretty scary! Seems like he might have been playing injured as we’ve had Pelech, Pulock, and Aho all out for a pretty good chunk of time. Had to pick up Reilly and Bortuzzo cause the D core has been pretty decimated

Isn’t Mayfield a top 4 d still? Had no idea he’s signed for 7 years though.

Fully healthy he’s our #5 and our bottom pairing RHD after Dobson and Pulock, but he’s often asked to step into top 4 duty due to injuries and usually handles the responsibility well. Also plays his best hockey in the postseason. He would be a #4 on a lot of teams though

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Canucks offering to trade their stuff for your stuff.

 

[Siludin]

Only guy from Washington I'd be interested in is Fehervary

 

[PettersonHughes]

Canucks offering to trade their stuff for your stuff.

YES - in Allvin we trust.

If I'm Vancouver I'd look for a power scoring winger or center in return. Could really use some speed and abrasiveness to push through in the playoffs.

 

[dirtydanglez]

it would be shame for kuzmenko to move after his parents wrong such a nice letter but i guess thats just part of the business.

 

[Laterade]

If we trade Kuzmenko for Mantha that would be hilarious

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

“It’s not like the Canucks are going to take Mantha.”

I think the cap dump story about Mantha needs to stop. He is playing like a guy reborn under Carberry. Has great chemistry on the second line with Connor McMichael and Aleksei Protas. He’s scoring at a 25 goal pace and is a UFA at season’s end. If the Caps are out of it at the deadline and they retain I bet they could get a decent piece or two.

That doesn’t mean Vancouver has to want Mantha or that Mantha would be the right asset Vancouver would be looking for if they traded Kuzmenko but the narrative around Mantha from last season needs to change.

 

[Szechwan]

“It’s not like the Canucks are going to take Mantha.”

I think the cap dump story about Mantha needs to stop. He is playing like a guy reborn under Carberry. Has great chemistry on the second line with Connor McMichael and Aleksei Protas. He’s scoring at a 25 goal pace and is a UFA at season’s end. If the Caps are out of it at the deadline and they retain I bet they could get a decent piece or two.

That doesn’t mean Vancouver has to want Mantha or that Mantha would be the right asset Vancouver would be looking for if they traded Kuzmenko but the narrative around Mantha from last season needs to change.

Can't really be surprised that a dead asset for the last couple years is still viewed as a dead asset after a decent 30 games. Glad to hear he's doing better but I would not trust that sample size if I'm a GM.