Value of: Andrei Kuzmenko

[Johnsie19]

I think its pretty unlikely anyone is going to be too interested in him.

Wingers just don't seem to hold that much value around the league. Especially when they're one dimensional scorers who aren't excelling at their 1 dimension. When he was going to be on an ELC for a year it made sense for teams to be after him. But making $5.5M this year and the next? I don't know there are going to be a lot of teams looking to make that deal work.

I think this is a classic case of "what have you done for me lately". As a Canucks fan we had it with Demko and Miller last yr. No one (on here) would ever want them because they were such flawed players and you'd have to pay to get rid of them and on and on. A yr later they're probably both top 10 in the MVP race.

And to be clear I don't think Kuzmenko hits almost 40 goals again but he is pretty comfortably a first line winger. But the mere fact that he is struggling right, and the coach is upset with aspects of his game means that to the uninitiated his value is nothing.

Same people probably wanted to trade Bouchard and Draisaitl two weeks ago but thought it would take Edmonton taking a cap dump in return.

 

[Spawn]

I think this is a classic case of "what have you done for me lately". As a Canucks fan we had it with Demko and Miller last yr. No one (on here) would ever want them because they were such flawed players and you'd have to pay to get rid of them and on and on. A yr later they're probably both top 10 in the MVP race.

And to be clear I don't think Kuzmenko hits almost 40 goals again but he is pretty comfortably a first line winger. But the mere fact that he is struggling right, and the coach is upset with aspects of his game means that to the uninitiated his value is nothing.

Same people probably wanted to trade Bouchard and Draisaitl two weeks ago but thought it would take Edmonton taking a cap dump in return.

I don’t mean it as a slight to the Canucks or Kuzmenko. It’s just the reality of scoring wingers they don’t seem to return much in deals. Especially with big cap hits when most teams are capped out.

 

[Johnsie19]

I don’t mean it as a slight to the Canucks or Kuzmenko. It’s just the reality of scoring wingers they don’t seem to return much in deals. Especially with big cap hits when most teams are capped out.

I wasn't taking it as one either. Just pushing back a little because sometimes people get tunnel vision based on the last 5-10 games a player has played.

I think his value in a trade is in line with what a non star 1st line winger might fetch. What examples were you thinking of when you said he doesn't have much value and what exactly is "not much value" we might be saying the same thing in the end.

 

[Michoulicious]

Dadonov 2.0?

 

[credulous]

Dadonov 2.0?

dadonov had 3 really good seasons

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Kuzmenko took the summer off and went travelling. The Canucks management didn’t like that and had concerns if he’d be game shape ready for the season and he said It’ll all be ok. Turns out he was wrong and was not prepared for the season. This is a great opportunity for another team, as his lack of offseason training was the issue here. I think he’ll learn from it TBH.

You've actually been following what's been going on I see.

 

[PettersonHughes]

You forgot the

Oops

 

[User13452]

Would something work between Carolina and Vancouver that could include Pesce? Carolina needs more scoring and Van has been on the hunt for a right handed d man. Maybe even chatfield plus?

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Would something work between Carolina and Vancouver that could include Pesce? Carolina needs more scoring and Van has been on the hunt for a right handed d man. Maybe even chatfield plus?

Yeah, that'd be exactly the sort of thing that would pique their interest.

 

[User13452]

Yeah, that'd be exactly the sort of thing that would pique their interest.

I know just today Canucks insider Rick Dhaliwal mentioned to keep a eye on chatfield as a potential trade piece for the Canucks and he is pretty well connected so maybe something could work

 

[Drew Doubty]

I don’t mean it as a slight to the Canucks or Kuzmenko. It’s just the reality of scoring wingers they don’t seem to return much in deals. Especially with big cap hits when most teams are capped out.

I agree, Canucks fans would scoff at a 2nd or 3rd return, but honestly they'd be lucky to get that. 5.5 mill in cap space would open up a world of opportunities for scoring wingers who better fit the Canucks needs.

People also aren't factoring in that, if they move Kuzmenko, they would then be shopping in the same low-value winger market they just sold into. All told, they might not end up giving up a ton, and end up with a much better top 6.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

I know just today Canucks insider Rick Dhaliwal mentioned to keep a eye on chatfield as a potential trade piece for the Canucks and he is pretty well connected so maybe something could work

Yeah, Chatty would be a much better fit in Vancouver than Bear. Pesce would be great, but the Canucks would need to add to make it happen I think. Chatfield for Kuzmenko straight up would probably work, at least for Vancouver.

 

[innitfam]

Yeah, Chatty would be a much better fit in Vancouver than Bear. Pesce would be great, but the Canucks would need to add to make it happen I think. Chatfield for Kuzmenko straight up would probably work, at least for Vancouver.

I think the fanbase would be pretty pissed at that return. Chatfield is solid, but the idea of trading one of the more skilled (albeit struggling) players on the roster for him would leave a bad taste in their mouth IMO.

 

[RandV]

These eye test guys sure are stubborn eh? Gretzky didn’t even sniff 27% when he scored 92 in the high flying 80’s, but Andrei frigging Kuzmenko was going to keep doing it? Oh sorry, they watched him play! Watched him score a bunch of goals on easy tap-ins because he was allowed to stand by the net. As though NHL defenses were just going to keep allowing that to happen forever.

It’s kind of funny that on one hand the Canucks extended Kuzmenko based on his fairytale season and on the other hand they traded Horvat to dinosaur Lou who probably though he was getting a perpetual 40 goal scorer based on Horvat’s one hot season where he scored more than 31 goals (his previous high). He’s only on pace for 25 this season so how ‘bout that. He’s who he’s always been and will continue to be. But I’m sure Lou watched him play last year and was convinced.

The numbers always have their way of averaging out whether eye test guys want to admit it or not. I wish I could play against some of these guys in my fantasy league it would be easy to rinse them on sell-high trades.

I find this kind of talk a bit obnoxiously absurd. Like what, Kuzmenko only should have scored 15 goals last year but he got 'lucky'? There are 82 games in a season, that's way to long for a simple lucky streak and you don't just randomly score 39 goals in the NHL. Rather, what you had was a team dynamic situation which was conductive to Kuzmenko getting the bulk of his shots in prime scoring opportunities. This season isn't a 'regression to the means' but him struggling (Pettersson too for that matter, though the stat sheet doesn't show it) and losing that synergy. Case in point, Boeser shot percentage was 10.1% last year but this season is currently 21.7%, taking over the role as the beneficiary winger to the Canucks top line talent.

If you want to bring legendary HoF players into the discussion, consider Brett Hull. In his best season scoring 86 goals his s% was 22.1%. Two seasons later he dropped 13.9% and 54 goals. Was he 'regressing to the mean'? Or was this the difference between having Adam Oates set him up vs Craig Janney.

To the point of the thread though I have a hard time seeing the Canucks actually trading him vs trying to work with him through the current issues he's having. A case of a guy starts struggling and the rumour hounds come out, not just speculation but I think they mentioned it on Hockey Night in Canada as well. At most there could be the possibility of a 'hockey trade', but I don't think they'll simply sell him.

 

[Qwijibo]

I find this kind of talk a bit obnoxiously absurd. Like what, Kuzmenko only should have scored 15 goals last year but he got 'lucky'? There are 82 games in a season, that's way to long for a simple lucky streak and you don't just randomly score 39 goals in the NHL. Rather, what you had was a team dynamic situation which was conductive to Kuzmenko getting the bulk of his shots in prime scoring opportunities. This season isn't a 'regression to the means' but him struggling (Pettersson too for that matter, though the stat sheet doesn't show it) and losing that synergy. Case in point, Boeser shot percentage was 10.1% last year but this season is currently 21.7%, taking over the role as the beneficiary winger to the Canucks top line talent.

If you want to bring legendary HoF players into the discussion, consider Brett Hull. In his best season scoring 86 goals his s% was 22.1%. Two seasons later he dropped 13.9% and 54 goals. Was he 'regressing to the mean'? Or was this the difference between having Adam Oates set him up vs Craig Janney.

To the point of the thread though I have a hard time seeing the Canucks actually trading him vs trying to work with him through the current issues he's having. A case of a guy starts struggling and the rumour hounds come out, not just speculation but I think they mentioned it on Hockey Night in Canada as well. At most there could be the possibility of a 'hockey trade', but I don't think they'll simply sell him.

Obviously there were factors that allowed him to score such a high last season. Like teams and goalies not having a book on his tendencies because it was his first year. But the point behind the stats is that last seadin was almost certainly an outlier. The most talented goal.scorers in league average around 13-15% that doesnt mean they won't have outlier seasons where they s ire at a higher rate. But sustaining it is damn near impossible.
Kuzmenko had a great seadon but it's an outlier, he doesn't shoot enough to repeat it at a realistic shooting percentage. He's at 11.1 this year. Probably lower than he's capable of. But even with a shooting percentage of 15 he's not coming close to repeating last season .

Dismiss the math if you like, but it's a lot more reliable than "he's lost confidence"

 

[Cogburn]

Both Milstein and Rutherford came out today and were very supportive of Kuzmenko, and wanting to get him firing as a Canuck.

Bedard on the other hand just had his coach justify why Bedard isn't out in critical, game breaking moments like empty net situations. Go bug Chicago.

 

[RandV]

Obviously there were factors that allowed him to score such a high last season. Like teams and goalies not having a book on his tendencies because it was his first year. But the point behind the stats is that last seadin was almost certainly an outlier. The most talented goal.scorers in league average around 13-15% that doesnt mean they won't have outlier seasons where they s ire at a higher rate. But sustaining it is damn near impossible.
Kuzmenko had a great seadon but it's an outlier, he doesn't shoot enough to repeat it at a realistic shooting percentage. He's at 11.1 this year. Probably lower than he's capable of. But even with a shooting percentage of 15 he's not coming close to repeating last season .

Dismiss the math if you like, but it's a lot more reliable than "he's lost confidence"

It's more about the degree of difference here. Certainly he shot high last season, and that's probably a career year for him, but there's always a few guys that go above the norm you're putting out here for 'goal scorers' (and I think other people were saying 12%), but just looking at last season for example there were 5 other 25+ goal scorers that shot over 20%. Taking one of them for example, Mark Scheifele, he's shot over 18% 5 times in his career.

From what we saw last year Kuzmenko is a guy who if playing well should be at a higher s%, maybe not 27 but above 12-15. If you apply his current shooting percentage to last season then he drops from 39 to 15 goals, and what I'm saying is that this is more than just being lucky last season and now regressing to the means or whatever.

 

[Qwijibo]

It's more about the degree of difference here. Certainly he shot high last season, and that's probably a career year for him, but there's always a few guys that go above the norm you're putting out here for 'goal scorers' (and I think other people were saying 12%), but just looking at last season for example there were 5 other 25+ goal scorers that shot over 20%. Taking one of them for example, Mark Scheifele, he's shot over 18% 5 times in his career.

From what we saw last year Kuzmenko is a guy who if playing well should be at a higher s%, maybe not 27 but above 12-15. If you apply his current shooting percentage to last season then he drops from 39 to 15 goals, and what I'm saying is that this is more than just being lucky last season and now regressing to the means or whatever.

I think we essentially agree. I don't think.hell ever come close to repeating last season. But I could see a consistent 20-25 goals from him for the next few years.

 

[Cancuks]

Kuzmenko for Jason Zucker. Vancouver gets another ex-Penguin and American born player for their roster and frees up cap space for next season. Coyotes get a more talented winger who likes the sun and warm weather and won't have to deal with much pressure from the media.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

I think we essentially agree. I don't think.hell ever come close to repeating last season. But I could see a consistent 20-25 goals from him for the next few years.

25-ish goals is very reasonable.

 

[canuckslover10]

Unless it's for a top 4 RHD I don't want to trade Kuzmenko, our powerplay would greatly suffer if he isn't on it.

 

[NYVanfan]

Probably Barclay Goodrow and his 4 years contract.

If schneider came with id be interested, but v unlikely

 

[Peter Griffin]

If schneider came with id be interested, but v unlikely

Yea that was my thinking. Only way I’d consider taking on Goodrow’s contract.

 

[Petes2424]

Unfortunately there’s just too many, streaky wingers, who all provide the same thing. All being paid similar money, in a league where there’s no cap room anywhere really.

There’s just not a lot of value for teams to take them.

 

[warrior60]

Unless it's for a top 4 RHD I don't want to trade Kuzmenko, our powerplay would greatly suffer if he isn't on it.

Kuzmenko and a second round pick for Ryan Pulock.