2021 Roster Thread XIX - Who's In Net

[bennysflyers16]

Seth Jones is used as a #1. Any team that acquires him for a king's ransom will continue to use him as a #1. It's not an evaluation of how he does in that usage. What a dull conversation.

What would you think a realistic deal would be for him, Ghost and this years 1st ?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

So no one really answered me,but did Jones have a down year statistically, or has he always looked bad analytically?

Definitely the former, but partially the latter also. I think.

 

[Magua]

So no one really answered me,but did Jones have a down year statistically, or has he always looked bad analytically?

He's had 3 down years in a row, not 1. This past year was just horrible, and not even team related necessarily. He was surely better before that tiny 3 year sample; there's a future where Jones can bounce back to that -- top pair caliber (playing with a Werenski-talent) but probably not elite on his own. "Bad analytically" is too vague. He's good at some things, usually the louder things (shooting, rushes, cycle defense); mediocre at others, usually the subtler things (gap control, playmaking, driving play).

What would you think a realistic deal would be for him, Ghost and this years 1st ?

Realistic? It's Myers or Sanheim, depending on how much Chuck wants to get f***ed. Then probably #13 and Brink/Zamula caliber prospect. Then a $70 mil contract. Desperation adds flavor.

 

[Starat327]

So no one really answered me,but did Jones have a down year statistically, or has he always looked bad analytically?

His performance has not matched the 'hype' or impression that he's a top defender in this league for at least the past three seasons, I believe. This last season was likely an outlier of extremely poor performance, but I also don't know that I would ever expect him to return to a 'Norris' level of play either.

He isn't a terrible player, but he isn't an elite one, either. There's very few people here who wouldn't take a player like Jones on their team. The issue is the assets you have to give to acquire him and then the contract you give him.

 

[bobbythebrain]

I mean there are measurable results confirming my stance and there aren't measurable results confirming your stance, which is probably why you've elected to go with "his coach uses him a lot" as proof despite there being an endless list of players overused by coaches.

How do you measure coach assignments tho? Barrie was downright ass under Babs then got better under O Keefe(i think)

Now Barrie looks legit under Tippet.

How can you measure those differences?

There's a reason Torts used him how he did despite the data that he has access to aswell

 

[TheKingPin]

Every day that goes by with no moves is a good day.

 

[deadhead]

Or look at Tanev in Vancouver and Calgary. Four awful seasons, suddenly he's a solid D-man again.

My mantra is from GG Box: "All models are wrong, some models are useful."

My suspicion is that NHL coaches aren't dunces, that teams now have metrics that aren't available to the general public, and evaluations are more than just public analytics.

In other words, Jones is unlikely to be elite, but is probably better than his metrics indicate.
But that will still mean he's not worth a substantial asset plus a 8x8 contract.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So a guy who says he thinks Torts is a good coach, is also saying that Torts giving Jones the most ice time on his team is irrelevant. Wow.

I think he's an average coach at best.

Coaches routinely make mistakes. Hence why ice time is a laughable metric on its own.

 

[Beef Invictus]

How do you measure coach assignments tho? Barrie was downright ass under Babs then got better under O Keefe(i think)

Now Barrie looks legit under Tippet.

How can you measure those differences?

There's a reason Torts used him how he did despite the data that he has access to aswell

I'm actually taking that into account too. Is Tortorella a bad fit? He may be.

I know for a fact that AV is a bad fit though. And if Fletcher is as married to this coaching staff as he so far has indicated he is, that's a big problem considering the cap hit Jones will command.

 

[captainpaxil]

Personally I take Hamilton over jones

 

[FLYguy3911]

Is David Desharnais a free agent this year?

 

[Starat327]

Is David Desharnais a free agent this year?

 

[Beef Invictus]

So no one really answered me,but did Jones have a down year statistically, or has he always looked bad analytically?

From when I watched him going back to Nashville, he kind of plateaued early. He had the potential to be a true #1 and Norris contender, but it didn't come to be. He has one great year. The last couple have been lesser years. He's basically more of what we already have; good but flawed players. And that's fine. I think he upgrades Myers or Hagg. Unfortunately, he's going to come with a high price tag and high ongoing cap cost. And he isn't good enough to justify that.

I thought he'd be another Josi in terms of impact, but he's followed the Flyers dman curve.

 

[deadhead]

From when I watched him going back to Nashville, he kind of plateaued early. He had the potential to be a true #1 and Norris contender, but it didn't come to be. He has one great year. The last couple have been lesser years. He's basically more of what we already have; good but flawed players. And that's fine. I think he upgrades Myers or Hagg. Unfortunately, he's going to come with a high price tag and high ongoing cap cost. And he isn't good enough to justify that.

I thought he'd be another Josi in terms of impact, but he's followed the Flyers dman curve.

I don't think he'll cost that much, you can't make trades predicated on signing a player, so he's a one year rental.
And as such, he's not going to garner a king's ransom given his current cap hit.
Nor has his camp given any sense that he'd forgo free agency, if so, I doubt Philly is the right team to get that commitment.

 

[bobbythebrain]

[QUOTE="deadhead, post: 178974278, member: 220865"]I don't think he'll cost that much, you can't make trades predicated on signing a player, so he's a one year rental.
And as such, he's not going to garner a king's ransom given his current cap hit.
Nor has his camp given any sense that he'd forgo free agency, if so, I doubt Philly is the right team to get that commitment.[/QUOTE]

Pacioretty cost Suzuki(grade A prospect) and Tatar

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Personally I take Hamilton over jones

he would just cost money. Not money plus. Hamilton is going to get paid this summer. Likely a bigger contract than Jones. Probably would have to make a deal before that. Or maybe Seattle takes Ghost

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't think he'll cost that much, you can't make trades predicated on signing a player, so he's a one year rental.
And as such, he's not going to garner a king's ransom given his current cap hit.
Nor has his camp given any sense that he'd forgo free agency, if so, I doubt Philly is the right team to get that commitment.

Our GM is Fletcher. He will overpay.

 

[deadhead]

Pacioretty cost Suzuki(grade A prospect) and Tatar

Tatar was probably to even up salaries, Suzuki and a 2nd was the core of the deal. Tatar had 30, 38 and 21 ES points the three previous seasons.
Turned out he was a bargain, but I don't think they expected what they got the first two years after the trade from him. He had 3yr/$16M left on his contract when he was traded.

 

[Rebels57]

I'm highly skeptical of that. Fletcher happily kept Yeo too long too.

Dave Scott cares about one thing and its not Fletcher or AV.

It's profit.

The fanbase is already on edge right now. Its not just here. Check the comments whenever their official accounts post on social media. Its ugly. Profits will dry up quick if the on-ice performance matches last season.

 

[Rebels57]

His performance has not matched the 'hype' or impression that he's a top defender in this league for at least the past three seasons, I believe. This last season was likely an outlier of extremely poor performance, but I also don't know that I would ever expect him to return to a 'Norris' level of play either.

He isn't a terrible player, but he isn't an elite one, either. There's very few people here who wouldn't take a player like Jones on their team. The issue is the assets you have to give to acquire him and then the contract you give him.

He is, however, a truly terrible person.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Dave Scott cares about one thing and its not Fletcher or AV.

It's profit.

The fanbase is already on edge right now. Its not just here. Check the comments whenever their official accounts post on social media. Its ugly. Profits will dry up quick if the on-ice performance matches last season.

If he cares that much then the coaching staff wouldn't be intact.

 

[Magua]

Or look at Tanev in Vancouver and Calgary. Four awful seasons, suddenly he's a solid D-man again.

You said this the other week, and it didn't fly then. He had two below average seasons, and one was due to horrific offensive impact not defensive (and he's as defensive defenseman as it gets). He's had a lengthy injury history too, and those years cover age 29-30, not 24-26. He signed a 4 year/$18 mil contract as a UFA -- definitely some risk. But "four awful seasons" is just making it up. And if you reply with any cherrypicked stats, this will be my response in advance, deady: "Not sure you can trust those advanced metrics."

 

[Rebels57]

If he cares that much then the coaching staff wouldn't be intact.

He gave them the one year mulligan because they didnt have to worry about ticket sales last season. We only had a handful of home games with fans in attendance and they couldnt even sell out with a capacity limit of approx 3,000. They also shoveled the goaltending and covid excuses onto Scotts desk. Im guessing none of those will fly next season. They'll need to put up or shut up (they'll shut up).

 

[FlyerNutter]

He gave them the one year mulligan because they didnt have to worry about ticket sales last season. We only had a handful of home games with fans in attendance and they couldnt even sell out with a capacity limit of approx 3,000. They also shoveled the goaltending and covid excuses onto Scotts desk. Im guessing none of those will fly next season. They'll need to put up or shut up (they'll shut up).

Is that true? Interesting.

I have to give their marketing team some credit, they have been trying the last few years when the actual product hasn't been that good. Next year is big one for GM, and HC. Produce or likely walking the plank.

 

[Rebels57]

Is that true? Interesting.

I have to give their marketing team some credit, they have been trying the last few years when the actual product hasn't been that good. Next year is big one for GM, and HC. Produce or likely walking the plank.

Yup. Reporting has been limited but one example would be the May 2nd Sat night game vs the Devils.

In front of a listed attendance of 2,683 — a limited capacity for limited standards — the Flyers lost to the Devils, 4-1, Saturday night at the Wells Fargo Center.

With under three minutes to play in regulation, a fan in attendance shouted, "C'mon, this is embarrassing!"

'I'm not too sure what to say' — Flyers at a loss by another loss to the Devils