Would You Guarantee Dubas' Job For 2022-23 If It Meant Holding On To Our Futures?

[ottomaddox]

Simply put, I think most of us are in the boat that should the Leafs get bounced in round 1 again or miss the playoffs entirely that Dubas should be fired. Keefe and potentially Shanahan as well but that's not who we're discussing.

I've no problem with that mindset, despite the good things Dubas has done he's trapped this team under burdensome contracts and built a team that doesn't have the physical or mental fortitude to win in the playoffs, and his coach of choice has been outdone in both series he's been behind the bench.

However, if Dubas feels the pressure to succeed in the short term to save his ass I'm worried he'll blow through more draft picks and futures than he already has. Fortunately he held on to all our prospects this deadline but he blew through a plethora of draft picks loading up for a long playoff run (lol). Say the Leafs are battling for a playoff spot not dissimilar to the 2019-20 season before the pandemic hit and it was a sad race between us and Florida for the third spot in the Atlantic. What if Dubas decides to package the likes of Amirov, another 1st, and more prospects and draft picks to "go for it" in hopes of a playoff series victory just so he doesn't get fired?

We'd be looking at a continuation of our draining prospect pipeline and when we lose in round 1 again it'd all just be another waste. The next guy to come in would have little to work with in terms of assets and any hope of supplementing this team with young cheap talent would be grim.

Now personally I don't see Dubas as the kind of guy to do that, but given how he swung for the fences this year I can't be too sure. And who knows what his mindset will be if he feels cornered and desperate to get results.

So that's the question. Do you guarantee Dubas another season so he doesn't irreversibly damage the franchise OR do you give him the old "wait and see" approach and leave his fate up in the air?

EDIT: Added option to fire him now.

I see a contradiction in the question or the thread title. More draft picks will be dealt if he remains. Having him around for another couple seasons will result in moving more draft picks.

He has done nothing but move 1st round picks, and he seemed to have broke the bank with this recently trade deadline.

Also no job is guaranteed in pro sports. You either win or you get acquainted with the sidewalk.

 

[justashadowof]

Flipping it around, why is there any legitimate reason for a Leafs fan to especially like Kyle Dubas or identify with him more than Lou Lamoriello? They’re just employees of a team you cheer for.

New Media has promoted the ever living hell out of Dubas compared to Boomer hero Lou.

 

[Subway Schenn]

I still don't give a ****, I hope this changes before the fall....

 

[Dreakmur]

Leaf fans talk about Leaf prospects. That doesn't equate to those prospect pools being the same quality as the one we have now.

It doesn't make it better or worse. This current group is still covered with a sheen of hope, which is why they look good.

Kyle Wellwood led the OHL in scoring. Roni Hirvonen almost cracked the top 100 in the Finnish league. Why should we think Hirvonen is a better prospect now than Wellwood was back then?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Flipping it around, why is there any legitimate reason for a Leafs fan to especially like Kyle Dubas or identify with him more than Lou Lamoriello?

Because Dubas has done a better job than Lou did. But this isn't about that. If people want to like somebody or evaluate GMs in short-sighted, incomplete ways, they're free to do that. The issue here is taking shots at Dubas by attempting to revise history and misrepresent the well-understood circumstances around his hiring.

This current group is still covered with a sheen of hope, which is why they look good.

The current pipeline is considered good for more reasons than just "hope".

 

[hamzarocks]

I guess when there's no legitimate reason to dislike Dubas and what he's done here, the only option is resorting to revising history to misrepresent him and the circumstances around his hiring, contrary to all evidence.

Are you even a Leafs fan? Your always defending Dubas and the others.

Dubas built the team that lost to CBJ and Montreal in the 1st round

He's wasted the past 3 years with the leafs showing zero improvement.

Our core 4 are 3 years older, paid far higher than they in 2018 and are still unable to lead this team to a single playoff series victory

Under Dubas we have sold assets heavily to try and go all in and it has failed spectacularly

Foligno, Nash, Hutton, Rittch were his all-in moves and he gave up multiple picks in this and next years draft to get them and we saw the leafs being a 1st round exit once again to the Habs

Our prospects developmental periods don't align with our contention years.

Lilijgren/Sandin still aren't NHL ready players and haven't been able to become that type of player Dubas as the GM.

All the prospects that people like to hype up (niemela, abramov, Hallinder, Hirvonen, Kokkonen) are 2-3 years away from being impact players. We have a time constraint set up by the short term deals Dubas signed Nylander, Marner, Matthews to. We have 3 years left to contend with certainty and then Matthews and Nylander enter UFA.

Dubas has not managed the teams resources well, he hasn't signed good contracts for the star players, he let's UFAs walk like candy (Andersen, Gardiner, Hyman, with Rielly being a potential addition next year), he refused to break up the core that has lost 3 straight series they should have won.

Dubas just spouts off the same rhetoric in his presser to get blind optimists to believe in his moves and we find that they continously fall short.

If the leafs were a merit based organization with accountability being an important core value, Dubas would be either fired after the Habs loss or atleast on the hot seat with next year being his final chance.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you even a Leafs fan?

Of course. It's not me you should be asking.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Nah you're blind. Toronto has a legitimate shot at winning the division.


Made good trades, smart signings, etc. You know, thing's that GM's do? This franchise has turned around since he's been in the driver's seat. Playoff success isn't the best way to score a GM.


You're just making that up. Keefe is not taking coaching instructions from Dubas.

He hasn't turned around shit, he hasn't even won a playoff round

 

[Dreakmur]

The current pipeline is considered good for more reasons than just "hope".

That's the only reason to think a prospect is going to be good - hope.

Why do you think Hollander is going to work out? He played in Sweden last year, failed to make the top 75 in scoring, and tied Henrik Lundqvist's twin brother in scoring.

Why do you think any of these guys are the next big thing?

 

[hamzarocks]

Of course. It's not me you should be asking.

Of course I should, any fan who defends a GM/president/coach/particular player restlessly even when they are making mistakes and falling short isn't a fan of the team. He has more emotional ties/bias towards a particular group which makes him cheer for that group blindly and ignore any fair and valid criticisms.

Dubas defenders right now are acting like Burke Defenders were from 2010-2012.

They ignore any critiques and are more determined to see the GM be presented as doing a good job then seeing the team improving and obtaining desired results

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's the only reason to think a prospect is going to be good - hope.

That's not true at all.

They ignore any critiques and are more determined to see the GM be presented as doing a good job then seeing the team improving and obtaining desired results

I haven't ignored anything, and my #1 goal is and always has been for the team to do well. The only reason I like Dubas is because he is doing a good job. Nothing would improve by firing him.

 

[Stephen]

Because Dubas has done a better job than Lou did. But this isn't about that. If people want to like somebody or evaluate GMs in short-sighted, incomplete ways, they're free to do that. The issue here is taking shots at Dubas by attempting to revise history and misrepresent the well-understood circumstances around his hiring.

The benchmark to evaluating a quality GM is based on winning team he can produce, on the ice, not some imagined rivalry between Dubas and Lamoriello.

The succession plan is a PR job to make everyone feel good about the transition. There’s nothing about Dubas and Colorado discussing the GM job the year prior in 2017, or the uncertainty of whether Toronto would make Hunter or Dubas the next GM, and Lou running away from his senior advisor role which happened in real time to suggest that it all unfolded as divined by Shanahan back in 2014.

Fact is, Dubas made a successful power move for the leadership role (which fans like yourself feel is justified) and Lou, Hunter and Babcock were all out the door (as they deserved).

If Dubas is the right guy for this job, what’s the problem with the power grab?

But again, none of this explains why a Leafs fan should feel particularly invested in Kyle Dubas.

 

[Bomber0104]

Of course I should, any fan who defends a GM/president/coach/particular player restlessly even when they are making mistakes and falling short isn't a fan of the team. He has more emotional ties/bias towards a particular group which makes him cheer for that group blindly and ignore any fair and valid criticisms.

Dubas defenders right now are acting like Burke Defenders were from 2010-2012.

They ignore any critiques and are more determined to see the GM be presented as doing a good job then seeing the team improving and obtaining desired results

It was actually quite remarkable how many posters magically disappeared when Burke and eventually Nonis got fired.

It'll be no different when Dubas gets axed IMO.

Could be as soon as next season but really should be now as he's already done an incalculable amount of damage to the team and the MLSE brand after this latest 1st round collapse.

 

[hamzarocks]

That's not true at all.

I haven't ignored anything, and my #1 goal is and always has been for the team to do well. The only reason I like Dubas is because he is doing a good job. Nothing would improve by firing him.

He isn't doing well. Leafs have lost 3x in the first round. When you made your account and started posting here you.never would've expected that to be the reality for the first 3 years of the dubas Era.

The team hasn't improved one bit.

2019 we were around the same in the Atlantic division (3rd like we were in 2018)

2020 we fell off and had a bad regular season finishing 8th at time of covid break. Ended up choking spectacularly to the Jackets

2021: Dominant regular season in the weakest division before going on to be eliminated in the first round again by the 18th seeded Habs.

In 2 out of 3 years where we played in our own division we haven't shown any significant improvement and have been worse in reality.

Next year when we return to the Atlantic which will be the best division we aren't primed to be a top 3.seed anymore. Bolts, Bruins, Panthers will be strong teams which the leafs will have to compete with. The Habs and Sens are also there. Next year there is no certainty the leafs top heavy no depth forward group can produce enough to make the playoffs.

We need Dubas to fix the scoring issues in the bottom 6. He's not looking at shaking the core up so the only other option is get solid point producers on the bottom 6 who can hopefully produce when Marner, Matthews get locked down in Spring

 

[Dreakmur]

That's not true at all.

So you must have a concrete reason to know certain prospects will work out. You must know for sure, because anything less is based on hope...

I'm sure it's a very reliable expected development percentage chart.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The succession plan is a PR job to make everyone feel good about the transition.

That's based on absolutely nothing. Everybody involved was in agreement, from the very start. It was carried out as planned.

Fact is, Dubas made a successful power move for the leadership role (which fans like yourself feel is justified) and Lou, Hunter and Babcock were all out the door (as they deserved).

That is not a fact. That is a misrepresentation of what happened. There was no power grab. Dubas was highly sought after and likely could have forced something if he really wanted to, but he instead chose to wait and see the plan through. To represent that as a "power grab" is incredibly dishonest.

 

[Garthinater]

Lamoriello blueprint has made Islanders Cup contenders

Such a shame we moved on from Lou.

 

[Dreakmur]

Such a shame we moved on from Lou.

There's a big difference between building a team and simply assembling a bunch of players.

Toronto has better players, New York has a better team.

 

[Bomber0104]

Lamoriello blueprint has made Islanders Cup contenders

Such a shame we moved on from Lou.

Every single Islanders playoff win is another nail in the coffin for Shanahan IMO, and another serving of crow for all the Lou-bashers...

 

[4thline]

I'm most interested in the responses of Matthews and Marner next season. If those two are duds again Sam Pollock would be getting fired from this job for non-results. If they deliver in the playoffs we'll do well.

 

[Garthinater]

The benchmark to evaluating a quality GM is based on winning team he can produce, on the ice, not some imagined rivalry between Dubas and Lamoriello.

The succession plan is a PR job to make everyone feel good about the transition. There’s nothing about Dubas and Colorado discussing the GM job the year prior in 2017, or the uncertainty of whether Toronto would make Hunter or Dubas the next GM, and Lou running away from his senior advisor role which happened in real time to suggest that it all unfolded as divined by Shanahan back in 2014.

Fact is, Dubas made a successful power move for the leadership role (which fans like yourself feel is justified) and Lou, Hunter and Babcock were all out the door (as they deserved).

If Dubas is the right guy for this job, what’s the problem with the power grab?

But again, none of this explains why a Leafs fan should feel particularly invested in Kyle Dubas.

Dubas threatened to depart the leafs if he didn't get promoted to gm.

He gets his desired position but his two star rfas then threaten him with offer sheets to get what they want.

Funny how life works.

 

[Stephen]

That's based on absolutely nothing. Everybody involved was in agreement, from the very start. It was carried out as planned.

That is not a fact. That is a misrepresentation of what happened. There was no power grab. Dubas was highly sought after and likely could have forced something if he really wanted to, but he instead chose to wait and see the plan through. To represent that as a "power grab" is incredibly dishonest.

Why did everyone leave in such a hurry after the hire? If everyone was hip to the plan wouldn’t they have all stayed super friends and continued on?

The fact that everyone craps on Lou and Hunter’s work also suggests a very clear regime change and new way of doing business as a course correction. Not a continuous plan. Otherwise why would anyone need to differentiate so clearly between one phase of the Shanaplan and another under the two GM’s?

 

[Bomber0104]

There's a big difference between building a team and simply assembling a bunch of players.

Toronto has better players, New York has a better team.

Better top two or three, sure.

From there it's not so cut-and-dry.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He isn't doing well. Leafs have lost 3x in the first round.

He is doing well. Makes logical, reasoned moves, and we're a much better team now than when he took over. There's way, way more to evaluating a GM than "how many rounds your team win, bro?". I'm not sure how anybody could conclude that Dubas is the reason we lost to Montreal anyway.

Next year there is no certainty the leafs top heavy no depth forward group can produce enough to make the playoffs.

We are pretty much the closest you can get to a playoff lock, even in the toughest division in hockey.

 

[Cor]

That’s called the PR version. Didn’t seem like Lou was hip to the succession plan.

I think Lou wanted to keep going as GM after the 3 years. However, he also signed a contract that saw him be GM for 3 years, and then become an advisor for 3 years. So it certainly seemed like Shanahan had his plan in mind when hiring Lou.