WJC: Canada's #1 goaltender

[Mess]

December 5, 2005

The Calgary Hitman won 3-2 on Friday and Pogge stopped 37 or 38 shots on Sunday in a 5-1 win over Moose Jaw .. and earned himself a game star

That brings Pogge's season record to:

26 games .... 21 wins ... 5 losses .. 6 shutouts .... and a sparkling 1.52 GAA

 

[Freaky Habs Fan]

December 5, 2005

The Calgary Hitman won 3-2 on Friday and Pogge stopped 37 or 38 shots on Sunday in a 5-1 win over Moose Jaw .. and earned himself a game star

That brings Pogge's season record to:

26 games .... 21 wins ... 5 losses .. 6 shutouts .... and a sparkling 1.52 GAA

At this point, stats doesn't mather anymore...2 goaltender will win a spot out of the training camp...

 

[oil slick]

At this point, stats doesn't mather anymore...2 goaltender will win a spot out of the training camp...

I agree - I think it really will come down to camp.

 

[Towelie*]

People are blindly supporitng Pogge here. It seems that poeple are propelling Pogge but yet are some how ignoring the easiest, and most logical conclusion.

I have seen Pogge play a few times on T.V, and once live. Pogge is ok, not spectacular, but ok.

It's funny, I do understand that most peoples conclusions here at HF come from stats - that is ok - I think we have to accept that.

However people are supporting Pogge because of his stats, but yet are ignoring a fundamental contradiction in Pogges stats. Pogges stats, last season, fluctuated radically when he was traded to the Hitmen. His stats INSTANTLY were better once traded to the Hitmen, then when he was playing for Prince George. I am not denying that Pogge probably developed, however I think it is comical to believe that Pogge deveoped instantly, and also just coincidentally at the same time he was traded, explaining his stats.

Anwser this question Mess (Since you seem to be an avid Pogge follower). How can you explain Pogges INSTANT statistical inflation once traded to the Hitmen? Did he wake up over night a better goalie?

The evidence is there. I can't undestand how people can blindly turn there eyes from it.

 

[mooseOAK*]

People are blindly supporitng Pogge here. It seems that poeple are propelling Pogge but yet are some how ignoring the easiest, and most logical conclusion.

I have seen Pogge play a few times on T.V, and once live. Pogge is ok, not spectacular, but ok.

It's funny, I do understand that most peoples conclusions here at HF come from stats - that is ok - I think we have to accept that.

However people are supporting Pogge because of his stats, but yet are ignoring a fundamental contradiction in Pogges stats. Pogges stats, last season, fluctuated radically when he was traded to the Hitmen. His stats INSTANTLY were better once traded to the Hitmen, then when he was playing for Prince George. I am not denying that Pogge probably developed, however I think it is comical to believe that Pogge deveoped instantly, and also just coincidentally at the same time he was traded, explaining his stats.

Anwser this question Mess (Since you seem to be an avid Pogge follower). How can you explain Pogges INSTANT statistical inflation once traded to the Hitmen? Did he wake up over night a better goalie?

The evidence is there. I can't undestand how people can blindly turn there eyes from it.

From published reports Pogge was given a lot of credit from the team for the Hitmen's improvement after he got there.

As far as not looking spectacular a lot of that may be attributed to positioning which he was probably taught at the Leafs' training camp. Belfour is one of the best at that.

 

[Towelie*]

From published reports Pogge was given a lot of credit from the team for the Hitmen's improvement after he got there.

As far as not looking spectacular a lot of that may be attributed to positioning which he was probably taught at the Leafs' training camp. Belfour is one of the best at that.

Hmm, lets break things down.

2004-2005 Calgary Hitmen Goalies:
1. Scott Bowles: GP=32, 15=Wins, 12=Losses,Ties = 4 (HockeyDB)
2. Justin Pogge: GP=24, 10=Wins, 9=Losses, Ties=2 (Hockey DB)
3. Daniel Spence: GP=17, 5=Wins, 5=Losses, Ties=2 (Hoockey DB)

Scott Bowles actually had a better winning percentage with the Hitmen then Pogge did. Therefore, after the trade, the Hitmen actually regressed with Pogge initially, contrary to what you said.

In fact, Scott Bowles and Justin Pogge both put up similar statistics. Who is to say that Scott Bowles wouldn't be the one everyone is talking about had he not being traded and was the goalie for the stacked Hitmen.

 

[Towelie*]

From published reports Pogge was given a lot of credit from the team for the Hitmen's improvement after he got there.

As far as not looking spectacular a lot of that may be attributed to positioning which he was probably taught at the Leafs' training camp. Belfour is one of the best at that.

By the way, what were these "Published reports", I would like to see them. And if it is anyone involved with the Hitmen saying this then it is pretty much worthless, as it would be an obvious conflict of interest to say otherwise.

 

[LaLaLaprise]

Or perhaps you're mislabelling them as 13th forwards to make your argument that they underrate the Q? That's what I think. Kind of hard for a forward to lead the team in scoring as the 13th guy isn't it? That doesn't really make any sense.

No they were 13th forwards. People on here can verify that.

 

[Puckz]

Hmm, lets break things down.

2004-2005 Calgary Hitmen Goalies:
1. Scott Bowles: GP=32, 15=Wins, 12=Losses,Ties = 4 (HockeyDB)
2. Justin Pogge: GP=24, 10=Wins, 9=Losses, Ties=2 (Hockey DB)
3. Daniel Spence: GP=17, 5=Wins, 5=Losses, Ties=2 (Hoockey DB)

Scott Bowles actually had a better winning percentage with the Hitmen then Pogge did. Therefore, after the trade, the Hitmen actually regressed with Pogge initially, contrary to what you said.

In fact, Scott Bowles and Justin Pogge both put up similar statistics. Who is to say that Scott Bowles wouldn't be the one everyone is talking about had he not being traded and was the goalie for the stacked Hitmen.

Are you not simply defeating your own point by saying one can not look at stats for an accurate judge of skill? You argue it unfair to judge a goaltender's skill by statistics, yet you are now arguing that an entire team regressed in skill due to the acquisition of Pogge, based on stats (Win/Loss) alone. Seems quite contradictive.

I have had the opportunity to play with and against Bowles and Pogge thru summer camps as well as see Dubnyk play first hand. Pogge is that good, Bowlesy isn't all that bad himself. Dubnyk, good goalie, nobody's arguing with that, but I still believe that Pogge is a more skilled tendy, and his puck play will be a great advantage to the international rules.

Will I guarentee he makes the team? No, nor will I say Dubnyk won't... But I stand by my initial words that Pogge is good enough to be on this team.

 

[Puckz]

Out of curiousity, how many people feel Julien Ellis' chance of getting a roster spot increased with the appointment of Goaltending Consultant Ian Clark? Clark works for the Vancouver Canucks, who own Ellis' rights, think there will be any bias?

 

[User571]

Julien Ellis should be the guy.

 

[Puckz]

By the way, don't think this has been posted... Not for argument sake, but more out of interest, here are the stats for the 4 goaltenders in the Can-Rus Series challenge.

Dubnyk: 30:05 Minutes Played, 10 saves on 12 shots
Ellis: 50:07 Minutes Played, 28 saves on 31 shots
Pogge: 30:49 Minutes Played, 11 saves on 11 shots
Price: 29:55 Minutes Played, 7 saves on 7 shots

 

[habitue*]

I guess best goalie in the Q for 2 straight years gets you no love

I think Canuck fans are still the only ones who know about this guy

and Habs fans will cry... Ellis was available in 2004 and the Canadiens have prefered to draft Ellis' assistant (Lacasse I think) instead of him... So in 2005, the Habs HAD to draft Price instead of packaging that #5 pick and get a good pick later + a proven player.

 

[Towelie*]

Are you not simply defeating your own point by saying one can not look at stats for an accurate judge of skill? You argue it unfair to judge a goaltender's skill by statistics, yet you are now arguing that an entire team regressed in skill due to the acquisition of Pogge, based on stats (Win/Loss) alone. Seems quite contradictive.

I have had the opportunity to play with and against Bowles and Pogge thru summer camps as well as see Dubnyk play first hand. Pogge is that good, Bowlesy isn't all that bad himself. Dubnyk, good goalie, nobody's arguing with that, but I still believe that Pogge is a more skilled tendy, and his puck play will be a great advantage to the international rules.

Will I guarentee he makes the team? No, nor will I say Dubnyk won't... But I stand by my initial words that Pogge is good enough to be on this team.

No you missed the whole point of the post talking about stats. I didn't say stats were useless, or a bad way assesing someone. I just said that Pogge supporters were looking at Pogges good stats and concluding he was good and that they were earned. But yet they were not looking at the obvious change in his stats when he got traded from Prince George to Calgary.

Basically I was criticizing Pogge supporters for propping Pogge up with his stats, but ignoring hte obvious fact that they are inflated and would be far less good if he was not playing for Calgary, ie Prince George.

 

[zeke]

People are blindly supporitng Pogge here. It seems that poeple are propelling Pogge but yet are some how ignoring the easiest, and most logical conclusion

Actually, the people supporting Pogge because of his stats are doing the OPPOSITE of supporting him "blindly"...they are supporting him for a very good, and solid, reason.

What you are doing, in fact, is much more "blind" - you are BLINDLY dismissing his stats, because for some reason you don't like him.

I mean, you revealed your bias when you stooped to calling his stats last season "similar" to Bowles'.

Pogge posted a 2.29gaa and .917sv%with the hitmen last season.

Bowles posted a 2.57gaa and .904sv%.

Sorry, but that is nowhere near "similar".

Now look at this season.....Calgary's backup goalie, Spence, is posting a 3.50gaa with an .849sv%. (and spence was pretty decent last season with calgary as a 17 year old).

That would seem to kill your argument that Pogge's stats only look good because of the team in front of him, don't you think?

It's hard to believe that a team can make one goalie look so good, and not be able to save the backup goalie from looking so bad.

 

[Towelie*]

Actually, the people supporting Pogge because of his stats are doing the OPPOSITE of supporting him "blindly"...they are supporting him for a very good, and solid, reason.

What you are doing, in fact, is much more "blind" - you are BLINDLY dismissing his stats, because for some reason you don't like him.

I mean, you revealed your bias when you stooped to calling his stats last season "similar" to Bowles'.

Pogge posted a 2.29gaa and .917sv%with the hitmen last season.

Bowles posted a 2.57gaa and .904sv%.

Sorry, but that is nowhere near "similar".

Now look at this season.....Calgary's backup goalie, Spence, is posting a 3.50gaa with an .849sv%. (and spence was pretty decent last season with calgary as a 17 year old).

That would seem to kill your argument that Pogge's stats only look good because of the team in front of him, don't you think?

It's hard to believe that a team can make one goalie look so good, and not be able to save the backup goalie from looking so bad.

Can you tell me why Pogges stats got better, over night, in 2004-2005 when he was traded to the Hitmen? Where I am from players don't develop over night.

 

[Freaky Habs Fan]

Can you tell me why Pogges stats got better, over night, in 2004-2005 when he was traded to the Hitmen? Where I am from players don't develop over night.

No dude, he can't

 

[richardn]

Can you tell me why Pogges stats got better, over night, in 2004-2005 when he was traded to the Hitmen? Where I am from players don't develop over night.

Well I can tell you 1 thing. When he was traded to Calgary he faced more shots a game and put up better numbers facing more shots per game

With Calgary Pogge faced 27.31 shots a game
With Prince George Pogge faced 21.45 shots a game

So maybe he got better suddenly because he got more action and was more involved in the games.

 

[Riggins]

This year it is 26 GP, 560 shots against Pogge = 21.54 per game.

 

[Puckz]

Can you tell me why Pogges stats got better, over night, in 2004-2005 when he was traded to the Hitmen? Where I am from players don't develop over night.

Could be streaks/slumps... Could be confidence... A big part Pogge said when he joined the Hitmen was that he was the number one goalie there, and he didn't spell off games... Could be environment too. Yes, part of it may be a better team, but there are numerous other factors that can contribute to a goalie's performance, just like in any other league. If a goalie has a streak of 8 or 9 poor games, and then strings together 10 or 11 great games, doesn't mean he has developed overnight. Confidence... Streaks... Slumps... Environment... Could be multiple things.

 

[Towelie*]

Well I can tell you 1 thing. When he was traded to Calgary he faced more shots a game and put up better numbers facing more shots per game

With Calgary Pogge faced 27.31 shots a game
With Prince George Pogge faced 21.45 shots a game

So maybe he got better suddenly because he got more action and was more involved in the games.

According to your logic he would then get worse in 2005-2006 because he is facing less shots....

 

[Towelie*]

Could be streaks/slumps... Could be confidence... A big part Pogge said when he joined the Hitmen was that he was the number one goalie there, and he didn't spell off games... Could be environment too. Yes, part of it may be a better team, but there are numerous other factors that can contribute to a goalie's performance, just like in any other league. If a goalie has a streak of 8 or 9 poor games, and then strings together 10 or 11 great games, doesn't mean he has developed overnight. Confidence... Streaks... Slumps... Environment... Could be multiple things.

I agree, it is overly simplitic to assume one factor. The question then becomes what factor is most dominant? It is impossible to anwser, until he plays for a different team. Until now I think people should recognize this factor - among other ones.

I just don't understand why, if the choice is between Pogge and Ellis, you pick Pogge. You have agreed the question mark is there about Pogge - when no question mark of that nature surrounds Ellis.

 

[richardn]

According to your logic he would then get worse in 2005-2006 because he is facing less shots....

There is a thing called confidence. Pogge had a real good camp with the Leafs and took that confidence into the start of this season I am sure working out with Belfour didn't hurt either. Goalies generally get better each year, well the good ones do at least.

 

[Towelie*]

There is a thing called confidence. Pogge had a real good camp with the Leafs and took that confidence into the start of this season I am sure working out with Belfour didn't hurt either. Goalies generally get better each year, well the good ones do at least.

Not that I disagree that confidence can alter play, however all your points are irrelevant statistically as Pogges "good camp with the Leafs" occured after his stat inflation and trade from Prince George.

 

[Puckz]

I just don't understand why, if the choice is between Pogge and Ellis, you pick Pogge. You have agreed the question mark is there about Pogge - when no question mark of that nature surrounds Ellis.

I don't think I have actually said that I picked Pogge over Ellis? I have argued Pogge over Dubnyk... And I did say if it was up to me, it would be Pogge and Ellis... but I never said Pogge would be the starter. Do I think he will be the starter? No probably not, but I do think he will compete for it and could win it... As mentioned before, I hope for Pogge and Ellis, but I don't feel it will happen because of the reputations behind Dubnyk and Price. The way I see it...

1. Ellis
2. Pogge
3. Price
4. Dubnyk


And I don't think I've ever said Pogge would have the starter's job... Correct me if I'm wrong however.