TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[Mike Carr]

if we pay him a cap hit over 9 I hope there is no NTC etc - Would like the option of being able to trade him for good assets back if we fancy it at some point - (not a rebuild) - get a player back on 6-7m and be able to keep Lucic/TT/Pearson/Mcnabb etc

few questions
who would you prefer to have for 10m longterm contract - Kopitar or Stamkos ?
how much do you think we will need to offer McNabb ?
how much do you think we will need to offer Lewis ?
would you offer Lucic a good contract ?

 

[damacles1156]

Non-guaranteed contract goes also in the other way. If somebody is playing much better than his current contract is, than he can demand better contract. For example, Carter and Toffoli can probably immediately ask at least on AVV 2mio better contract...

No problem if Carter made more, he is under paid. Toffoli should have been signed for Five years at 4.5 million anyway.

Lombardi should have bought UFA on Toffoli's contract, so no problem paying Toffoli more, as long as he signs for more years.

 

[KINGS17]

So you're admitting 2012 Kopitar was dominant

Of course not, but I'm talking about things beyond shooting and scoring, too, like going hard to the net and carrying possession for the entire line. But then again, I'm talking to the guy who figured a 5 goal 80 assist season would be a failure because goals.

LOL at number 2, like Montreal would do that. You keep throwing out these unrealistic trade scenarios and hoping for the best. I'm just pointing out reality. The Kings starting something "new and fresh" means a LOT more moves than simply Kopitar, and may as well dismantle at that point because we're not running around with a bunch of blue chip prospects. Go look at the haul for UFA Kovalchuk and see what we can get for Kopitar.

I don't disagree in general on Jeff Carter, but if he's our #1, he's then seeing Toews/Hossa instead of Kopitar, and you're counting on GALCHENYUK--who even friggin Montreal doesn't trust at center--to be your #2. I'm sorry, but Kopitar moves, just start dismantling the team now. I'm not counting on them catching 'lightning in a bottle', but you're conveniently forgetting Kopitar's slow start followed by PPG last year, in a year when he was clearly off--I'm simply believing what I see, and that's improved play. Unfortunately, we can't 'fix' those around him, they have to play well too...

Edit: and none of this addresses the contract. The point is, he's not going to get a 5x5 or anything like that if we're all honest with ourselves. He is going to be overpaid for his years of service. I'm fine with that at this point because we're going to be terrible and hampered by the cap in a year or two anyway, so may as well contend hard for the year or two we still can. That's all I'm saying. If we want to tear it all apart, fine, but DL has given absolutely ZERO signal of doing that (though we've been getting younger slowly/subtly, look at our D).

This is what I don't get about your argument Brad. Kopitar is great and is going to turn into 2012-Super Anze at any moment, you know if Montreal made such a trade they would have no trouble signing Kopitar to the mega-contract he desires, yet Montreal wouldn't give up Galchenyuk + to get him.

It's fine to keep Kopitar if you think with him playing at his current level offensively (roughly 60 points a season) at an AAV of over $9M season maintains the Kings position as cup contenders for the next three or four seasons. I don't think it does, but I may be wrong.

I think Kopitar is in decline offensively, and I think it's rather obvious. I don't think it's Sutter's system or any of the other BS excuses Kopitar fans like to make. As a fan of the Kings I like and appreciate everything Kopitar has done for this franchise, but giving him the rocking chair contract would be a huge mistake.

The Kings can continue to be contenders with Kopitar/Carter down the middle. One of the keys to that is Kopitar taking less in AAV so Dean has the flexibility to eat some of Brown or Gaborik's contract in a trade and possibly bring in a vet lockdown defenseman or 3C. Every extra amount of AAV given to Kopitar above what he is truly worth hurts that scenario.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Why do they need to obtain a number 1? Carter is already the best center on this team. They would only need a 2nd line center in return.

Did you watch the Kings pre-Carter/Richards? This is exactly what they iced - Kopitar, a good #1, and a "serviceable" #2 in Stoll. We won exactly zero playoff series during this time.

And who has a surplus of 1/2 centers they would trade away for a rental Kopitar? Anyone? Bueller? Kovalchuk was THE premiere forward when he was traded as a deadline rental - right there behind Crosby and Ovechkin. He didn't net some insane return. What makes you think Kopitar will? We'll get a decent roster player with possibility of upside, a B+ prospect, a C prospect, and a pick.

Top centers are drafted and developed. We don't have anyone like that right now. Trade Kopitar, and you're stocking the pipeline for a rebuild, not retooling a contending squad.

Seriously, people. Some of you need to wake up here. I'd love to trade an underperforming, rental Kopitar for some magical basket of assets. But that's not happening. The only way, in any reality, that we'd contend without Kopitar is if Richards was still the hockey player he was in 2012, and we could roll Richards-Carter down the middle.

But that, too, didn't happen.

 

[KINGS17]

Did you watch the Kings pre-Carter/Richards? This is exactly what they iced - Kopitar, a good #1, and a "serviceable" #2 in Stoll. We won exactly zero playoff series during this time.

And who has a surplus of 1/2 centers they would trade away for a rental Kopitar? Anyone? Bueller? Kovalchuk was THE premiere forward when he was traded as a deadline rental - right there behind Crosby and Ovechkin. He didn't net some insane return. What makes you think Kopitar will? We'll get a decent roster player with possibility of upside, a B+ prospect, a C prospect, and a pick.

Top centers are drafted and developed. We don't have anyone like that right now. Trade Kopitar, and you're stocking the pipeline for a rebuild, not retooling a contending squad.

Seriously, people. Some of you need to wake up here. I'd love to trade an underperforming, rental Kopitar for some magical basket of assets. But that's not happening. The only way, in any reality, that we'd contend without Kopitar is if Richards was still the hockey player he was in 2012, and we could roll Richards-Carter down the middle.

But that, too, didn't happen.

Why do people keep saying this? Any team that trades for Kopitar knows what it will take to sign him and is going to give it to him.

Give a declining Kopitar a $9M+ AAV and you aren't winning any cups anyway. Please stop with the wake up crap. There are two sides to this story and both have merit. We will see which path Dean takes and how it plays out.

Also, people that post as you are doing, do not take into account what the Kings would receive in a trade for Kopitar.

 

[KINGS17]

So you're admitting 2012 Kopitar was dominant

Of course not, but I'm talking about things beyond shooting and scoring, too, like going hard to the net and carrying possession for the entire line. But then again, I'm talking to the guy who figured a 5 goal 80 assist season would be a failure because goals.

LOL at number 2, like Montreal would do that. You keep throwing out these unrealistic trade scenarios and hoping for the best. I'm just pointing out reality. The Kings starting something "new and fresh" means a LOT more moves than simply Kopitar, and may as well dismantle at that point because we're not running around with a bunch of blue chip prospects. Go look at the haul for UFA Kovalchuk and see what we can get for Kopitar.

I don't disagree in general on Jeff Carter, but if he's our #1, he's then seeing Toews/Hossa instead of Kopitar, and you're counting on GALCHENYUK--who even friggin Montreal doesn't trust at center--to be your #2. I'm sorry, but Kopitar moves, just start dismantling the team now. I'm not counting on them catching 'lightning in a bottle', but you're conveniently forgetting Kopitar's slow start followed by PPG last year, in a year when he was clearly off--I'm simply believing what I see, and that's improved play. Unfortunately, we can't 'fix' those around him, they have to play well too...

Edit: and none of this addresses the contract. The point is, he's not going to get a 5x5 or anything like that if we're all honest with ourselves. He is going to be overpaid for his years of service. I'm fine with that at this point because we're going to be terrible and hampered by the cap in a year or two anyway, so may as well contend hard for the year or two we still can. That's all I'm saying. If we want to tear it all apart, fine, but DL has given absolutely ZERO signal of doing that (though we've been getting younger slowly/subtly, look at our D).

BTW Brad, here you go:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1987993&page=10

See post #234 and the responses. I don't know if Montreal's GM is into fool's gold, but a some fans in Montreal seem to be willing to give a player $72M+ for what they think would be one or two shots at a cup.

Unfortuately, Montreal probably has pro scouts that have been following Kopitar for the last 100 games or so, but maybe Dean could get lucky. Get younger and better. Galyenchuk could be better than Kopitar inside of 3 years at the rate Kopitar is declining.

 

[damacles1156]

The Kings have their number 2 Center of the future, already in the system, Kempe is playing more Center this year, and is not going to be in the AHL very long.

 

[Basilisk]

I have faith that Dean will make the best decision possible.


If I were in Dean's shoes, though, I'd be looking at obtaining a quality #2 centerman via Kopitar trade. At this point, that's exactly what Kopitar is playing like. Only there have to be at least a couple of dozen options out there that are as productive as Kopi currently is, but are younger and/or make no more than $4.5m per year. Heck, if Kopi's next contract is all about paying him for PAST performance, we could concievably get TWO forwards (preferably centers) with the current Kopi production rate but at the pay rate of $4.5-ish million per year. It's feeling like something along the lines of when we traded Nichols for Granato & Sandstrom, though that was because we NEEDED the forward depth. Dean's lucky that we don't need the forward depth. It's D depth that we need.


That being said...... I'm GLAD I'm not in Dean's shoes!!!!



PS: Any chance we can re-sign Lucic? Even if it's only a 2-year deal and we trade him at the end of the 2016-2017, a draft-day deal? We'd then have Lucic for Cup runs in 2016 & 2017 and get a GREAT return for him during the 2017 draft. That's what I'm thinking.....

 

[damacles1156]

PS: Any chance we can re-sign Lucic? Even if it's only a 2-year deal and we trade him at the end of the 2016-2017, a draft-day deal? We'd then have Lucic for Cup runs in 2016 & 2017 and get a GREAT return for him during the 2017 draft. That's what I'm thinking.....

Lucic will be looking for a retirement contract. Players don't take discounts(it's extremely rare). Look at what Kopitar is asking for, knowing full well, it will hamper the Kings ability to contend. Lucic will want 6+ million on a long, long , long term deal. Lucic 28 years of age when the ink dry's, at 6+ million over Five-Seven years is a bad idea for the Kings. The Kings need to win the Cup this year, and move on from Lucic.

Dustin Brown's second contract, was the last sweetheart deal I can remember, Players generally don't sign those anymore.

 

[KINGS17]

The Kings have their number 2 Center of the future, already in the system, Kempe is playing more Center this year, and is not going to be in the AHL very long.

What was the Kings' biggest strength in 2014 though? It was the ability to dominate down the middle.

Carter
Galchenyuk
Kempe
Shore

looks pretty good to me, and the Kings stay atop the Pacific for quite some time.

 

[KINGS17]

The stat for individuals is iCorsi:

Individual Corsi = Shots on goal + Shots directed at the net (but missed) + Shots directed at the net (but blocked).

It measures the total shot attempts a player makes. Here is the individual Corsi for the Kings per 60 minutes (5v5)

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...14&type=individual&sort=icorsi60&sortdir=DESC

The reason that Kopitar is on the ice for so many shot attempts (and his high Corsi for) is because of good defense and Brown. DB is putting shots towards the net at a ridiculous rate - 2nd in the league only to Ovechkin. Gaborik is doing OK as well. If things start to normalize for Brown, he's going to go on a major streak.

Put it this way - Trevor Lewis puts pucks towards the net roughly twice as much (per minute) as Kopitar at ES. Brown is closer to 3x as much. Anze has 15 shots 5v5 this year. Brown is at 57. That's mind boggling.

Thanks for the link. This does not tell a good story for Kopitar offensively in 5-on-5 situations.

 

[damacles1156]

Thanks for the link. This does not tell a good story for Kopitar offensively in 5-on-5 situations.

Passing too much , last season, and this season still.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Why do people keep saying this? Any team that trades for Kopitar knows what it will take to sign him and is going to give it to him.

Give a declining Kopitar a $9M+ AAV and you aren't winning any cups anyway. Please stop with the wake up crap. There are two sides to this story and both have merit. We will see which path Dean takes and how it plays out.

Also, people that post as you are doing, do not take into account what the Kings would receive in a trade for Kopitar.

What historical example do you have to assume a Kopitar trade would net anything more than another Bergfors/Oduya?

Teams trade for rentals all the time under the hope they'll be re-signed. Case in point: Sekera. How did that work out? No "smart GM", to use one of your buzzwords, would ever in the right mind assume a re-signing is guaranteed. Which is exactly why rental trades don't net barrels of sure fire assets. Again, we have several post-cap examples to point to here. What do you have? You continually cite cap space as the best "asset" in return for Kopitar, but whom are we signing with this cap space? Cap space for the sake of it doesn't score goals. Again, see the Kings pre-2012. There used to be a meme around here about cap space being our best forward, in fact.

No one disagrees that Kopitar is in decline. No one disagrees that a massive AAV would hurt the Kings years down along the line. The argument "people who post like me" are making is that if we're interested in contending for another two years, there is no magical deal we could make to fill Kopitar's skates. This team is ALREADY headed for obscene cap problems with several thirty year old forwards making too much money. But most of us are in agreement that with minor tweaks, this core of players can still contend for another two years, at the most. Trading Kopitar opens up a massive hole in the lineup during this window, regressing or not.

And I'll ask once more, who is trading away a future 1/2 for Kopitar, even a signed Kopitar? You yourself have characterized him as a depreciating asset. Name a team willing to part with a young center for even a signed Kopitar.

You've listed Galchenyuk (assuming Montreal does this, which I disagree with). You then go on to undermine your own proposition by saying Galchenyuk would be better than Kopitar in three years. Three years? We're not contending for **** in three years with Carter edging into his mid-thirties, Brown and Gaborik broken down, and Quick getting older as well. We're the Flyers at that point, hitting our stride with a subset of players while the rest of the team declines around them. Is this really what you're proposing?

I think you've drunk the Deano Kool-aid of this magic dreamland in which the Kings become Detroit and contend for twenty years with a continually resupplied core of star players. There is a reason Detroit is literally the only hockey team in the modern era to accomplish this, due in part to some massive drafting luck with Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Hate to break it to you, but we're not replicating this. We're going to contend like every other team, with a designated contending window, and an inevitable rebuild.

Trading Kopitar just starts the rebuild process early, robbing the team of two potential window years.

 

[damacles1156]

What historical example do you have to assume a Kopitar trade would net anything more than another Bergfors/Oduya?

Teams trade for rentals all the time under the hope they'll be re-signed. Case in point: Sekera. How did that work out? No "smart GM", to use one of your buzzwords, would ever in the right mind assume a re-signing is guaranteed. Which is exactly why rental trades don't net barrels of sure fire assets. Again, we have several post-cap examples to point to here. What do you have? You continually cite cap space as the best "asset" in return for Kopitar, but whom are we signing with this cap space? Cap space for the sake of it doesn't score goals. Again, see the Kings pre-2012. There used to be a meme around here about cap space being our best forward, in fact.

No one disagrees that Kopitar is in decline. No one disagrees that a massive AAV would hurt the Kings years down along the line. The argument "people who post like me" are making is that if we're interested in contending for another two years, there is no magical deal we could make to fill Kopitar's skates. This team is ALREADY headed for obscene cap problems with several thirty year old forwards making too much money. But most of us are in agreement that with minor tweaks, this core of players can still contend for another two years, at the most. Trading Kopitar opens up a massive hole in the lineup during this window, regressing or not.

And I'll ask once more, who is trading away a future 1/2 for Kopitar, even a signed Kopitar? You yourself have characterized him as a depreciating asset. Name a team willing to part with a young center for even a signed Kopitar.

You've listed Galchenyuk (assuming Montreal does this, which I disagree with). You then go on to undermine your own proposition by saying Galchenyuk would be better than Kopitar in three years. Three years? We're not contending for **** in three years with Carter edging into his mid-thirties, Brown and Gaborik broken down, and Quick getting older as well. We're the Flyers at that point, hitting our stride with a subset of players while the rest of the team declines around them. Is this really what you're proposing?

I think you've drunk the Deano Kool-aid of this magic dreamland in which the Kings become Detroit and contend for twenty years with a continually resupplied core of star players. There is a reason Detroit is literally the only hockey team in the modern era to accomplish this, due in part to some massive drafting luck with Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Hate to break it to you, but we're not replicating this. We're going to contend like every other team, with a designated contending window, and an inevitable rebuild.

Trading Kopitar just starts the rebuild process early, robbing the team of two potential window years.

That's Dean Lombardi's tough decision. But I agree, the Kings need Kopitar to have any shot at the Cup the next two seasons, including this one.

So the Kings essentially have to pay 70 million dollars to have a Cup shot for two years, that's a whole lot of money, glad I am not writing the check.

 

[HYORI 1963]

who would you prefer to have for 10m longterm contract - Kopitar or Stamkos ?

100% Stamkos.

I know the majority of the board would differ, but no way is Kopi worth anything close to 10M. He's a very good defensive center with average to better than average scoring skills, at best.

 

[KopitarFAN]

100% Stamkos.

I know the majority of the board would differ, but no way is Kopi worth anything close to 10M. He's a very good defensive center with average to better than average scoring skills, at best.

Agree.

3 years younger, not as big on his all around game, but if I have to go 8/80+ on one of the two, I'd rather it be the guy who will be 26 when his deal starts.

 

[TopT]

What was the Kings' biggest strength in 2014 though? It was the ability to dominate down the middle.

Carter
Galchenyuk
Kempe
Shore

looks pretty good to me, and the Kings stay atop the Pacific for quite some time.

damn what happened to Johansen; I thougt that was a done deal.

 

[TopT]

What historical example do you have to assume a Kopitar trade would net anything more than another Bergfors/Oduya?

Teams trade for rentals all the time under the hope they'll be re-signed. Case in point: Sekera. How did that work out? No "smart GM", to use one of your buzzwords, would ever in the right mind assume a re-signing is guaranteed. Which is exactly why rental trades don't net barrels of sure fire assets. Again, we have several post-cap examples to point to here. What do you have? You continually cite cap space as the best "asset" in return for Kopitar, but whom are we signing with this cap space? Cap space for the sake of it doesn't score goals. Again, see the Kings pre-2012. There used to be a meme around here about cap space being our best forward, in fact.

No one disagrees that Kopitar is in decline. No one disagrees that a massive AAV would hurt the Kings years down along the line. The argument "people who post like me" are making is that if we're interested in contending for another two years, there is no magical deal we could make to fill Kopitar's skates. This team is ALREADY headed for obscene cap problems with several thirty year old forwards making too much money. But most of us are in agreement that with minor tweaks, this core of players can still contend for another two years, at the most. Trading Kopitar opens up a massive hole in the lineup during this window, regressing or not.

And I'll ask once more, who is trading away a future 1/2 for Kopitar, even a signed Kopitar? You yourself have characterized him as a depreciating asset. Name a team willing to part with a young center for even a signed Kopitar.

You've listed Galchenyuk (assuming Montreal does this, which I disagree with). You then go on to undermine your own proposition by saying Galchenyuk would be better than Kopitar in three years. Three years? We're not contending for **** in three years with Carter edging into his mid-thirties, Brown and Gaborik broken down, and Quick getting older as well. We're the Flyers at that point, hitting our stride with a subset of players while the rest of the team declines around them. Is this really what you're proposing?

I think you've drunk the Deano Kool-aid of this magic dreamland in which the Kings become Detroit and contend for twenty years with a continually resupplied core of star players. There is a reason Detroit is literally the only hockey team in the modern era to accomplish this, due in part to some massive drafting luck with Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Hate to break it to you, but we're not replicating this. We're going to contend like every other team, with a designated contending window, and an inevitable rebuild.

Trading Kopitar just starts the rebuild process early, robbing the team of two potential window years.

I do

 

[TopT]

Agree.

3 years younger, not as big on his all around game, but if I have to go 8/80+ on one of the two, I'd rather it be the guy who will be 26 when his deal starts.

and is a second line winger. Great job

 

[Winger23]

I do

I love Kopi but you have to have blinders on to not notice...

 

[SettlementRichie10]

That's Dean Lombardi's tough decision. But I agree, the Kings need Kopitar to have any shot at the Cup the next two seasons, including this one.

So the Kings essentially have to pay 70 million dollars to have a Cup shot for two years, that's a whole lot of money, glad I am not writing the check.

100% agreed that it's a near impossible decision.

For the record, I'm not opposed to trading Kopitar and starting a rebuild. I'm opposed to the notion that we can trade Kopitar and still contend in the here and now.

 

[damacles1156]

100% agreed that it's a near impossible decision.

For the record, I'm not opposed to trading Kopitar and starting a rebuild. I'm opposed to the notion that we can trade Kopitar and still contend in the here and now.

I agree as well.

Does Lombard want to start the rebuild early, or take two more shots at it, while ruining his cap structure for the next Five years ?

Looks like he is choosing the shots at the cup, with a ruined cap down the line.

It is, what it is.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This is what I don't get about your argument Brad. Kopitar is great and is going to turn into 2012-Super Anze at any moment, you know if Montreal made such a trade they would have no trouble signing Kopitar to the mega-contract he desires, yet Montreal wouldn't give up Galchenyuk + to get him.

It's fine to keep Kopitar if you think with him playing at his current level offensively (roughly 60 points a season) at an AAV of over $9M season maintains the Kings position as cup contenders for the next three or four seasons. I don't think it does, but I may be wrong.

I think Kopitar is in decline offensively, and I think it's rather obvious. I don't think it's Sutter's system or any of the other BS excuses Kopitar fans like to make. As a fan of the Kings I like and appreciate everything Kopitar has done for this franchise, but giving him the rocking chair contract would be a huge mistake.

The Kings can continue to be contenders with Kopitar/Carter down the middle. One of the keys to that is Kopitar taking less in AAV so Dean has the flexibility to eat some of Brown or Gaborik's contract in a trade and possibly bring in a vet lockdown defenseman or 3C. Every extra amount of AAV given to Kopitar above what he is truly worth hurts that scenario.

I think those things are related. Sort of like when we traded for Sekera, if you're trading for a big rental, you're more than likely doing it with the expecation that you're taking a shot at signing him, no? Especially with what potential you'd be giving up. I don't think we DO have 3-4 seasons with this group, I think we have this year and MAYBE next year before a retool would be necessary, but erasing Kopitar from that equation, decline or not, means we're hosed and need to start over, and like I said elsewhere, may as well start moving anything not nailed down--Kopi, Lucic, Gaborik, Brown, Quick...anything near or on the wrong side of 30 for big assets. Go full Bruins.

BTW Brad, here you go:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1987993&page=10

See post #234 and the responses. I don't know if Montreal's GM is into fool's gold, but a some fans in Montreal seem to be willing to give a player $72M+ for what they think would be one or two shots at a cup.

Unfortuately, Montreal probably has pro scouts that have been following Kopitar for the last 100 games or so, but maybe Dean could get lucky. Get younger and better. Galyenchuk could be better than Kopitar inside of 3 years at the rate Kopitar is declining.

I see tons of people apprehensive about it and 2-3 that are supportive of it, and only one does it without flinching. That's not helping your point really. But at least it creates some good discussion.

Look, I think worst case scenario right now we're rolling Carter and Kopi as pseudo-co-#1Cs for the foreseeable future. Even so, selling low on Kopitar would be silly, especially when things are starting to look up for him. I agree that the contract will be an overpayment as soon as year #3, but we're just looking at different philosophies, and what happens will tell us what DL is thinking--do you sign him and take 1-2 last cracks at the cup with this group, or do you sell and retool?

Edit: Just read like the five posts prior to mine, they're the same thing but more succinct

 

[MOGlLNY]

Just what we needed: another Kopitar thread.

I'm gonna just quote what I just posted in the other Roster (Kopitar) thread...

Thank you, this sums it up. More than happy to see Kopi finish his career as a King, he deserves it.

 

[HYORI 1963]

The notion that trading Kopi equates to a rebuild is just silly. So, who do we keep, and who do we trade if we're rebuilding? Do we trade Carter? Quick?

For me, it really depends on what we can get on a return for Kopi. Only then, I think we'll know better whether we need to rebuild or try and compete for the cup.