TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[KINGS17]

Those shooting stats aren't telling the whole story. Kopitar is shooting a lot right now. It's just that an abnormally large portion of his shots are missing the net so they're not factored into the shooting % stat.

In a previous post I believe someone pointed out that your stats were with Kopitar on the ice, not Kopitar actually taking the shots himself.

 

[The Night King]

Cap space > cups

Let him walk, Dean. At last we'll be good again in 7 years.

 

[johnjm22]

In a previous post I believe someone pointed out that your stats were with Kopitar on the ice, not Kopitar actually taking the shots himself.

I believe whoever said that is misinterpreting the data, because there's separate stats for both.

When Kopitar is on the ice 5on5, the Kings have 323 shot attempts for. Kopitar himself has 89 shot attempts.

 

[damacles1156]

Cap space > cups

Let him walk, Dean. At last we'll be good again in 7 years.

Regardless of Kopitar's cap hit, the Kings will have to rebuild soon.

The core will be on the wrong side of 30, declining and expensive.

I give it this season and the next with legit shots at the Cup. After that, I doubt the Kings will be a serious cup team.

Unless Kempe/Zykov/Gravel are world beaters(which they are not, and probably won't be).

 

[KINGS17]

Cap space > cups

Let him walk, Dean. At last we'll be good again in 7 years.

Who said Dean wouldn't use the cap space? It would just be distributed in a different manner.

 

[KINGS17]

I believe whoever said that is misinterpreting the data, because there's separate stats for both.

When Kopitar is on the ice 5on5, the Kings have 323 shot attempts for. Kopitar himself has 89 shot attempts.

Anywhere this can be compared to previous seasons?

 

[KopitarFAN]

Who said Dean wouldn't use the cap space? It would just be distributed in a different manner.

We've seen how successful he has been in drawing free agents here, and they won't have the assets to trade for a Richards as in 2011 or Carter in 2012 unless they go into the toilet for 3 years. Which frankly, I wouldn't oppose, if the choice is to let Kopitar walk, trade everybody with value, except Toffoli and Doughty, recoup tons of draft picks and young players for Carter, Muzzin and Martinez, throw Quick out there too, but I am not sure what his market would be with 7 years remaining.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Slighty off topic,

But aren't the New England Patriots notorious for getting rid of 29+ year old players, due raises ? With obvious exceptions (Brady). I know NFL teams can't wait to rid themselves of Running Backs that hit 28/29 years old.

It's a tough comparison though because most RBs are done by 30, and NE rolls many running backs anyway instead of a feature back for the most part (Lewis was a little different this year). I guess it would sort of be like running a committee of #2 and #3 centers throughout the lineup for 4-5 million and replacing them when the time comes? dunno. But again, as you point out, the core is still there (Brady), and where do you draw the line, and it seems for many that line is with Kopitar.

The issue here is replacing Kopitar. I don't see any centers out there obtainable at a reasonable price that come close to matching Kopitar.

Moving Kopitar by the deadline, in a year Lombardi doesn't have a 1st round pick and the Kings are near/at the top of the division is going to be hard to justify. That's the kind of move that goes bad and costs people their jobs.

Exactly. I personally hope he retires here, but if he were to be outgoing, what would come back?

UFA Kovalchuk brought Niclas Bergfors, Oduya, Patrice Cormier, Anssi Salmela, and a late 1st (ended up being the pick of Kevin Hayes for Chicago). So, it was a promising but sell-low on first rounder Bergfors, a top-four d-man in Oduya, a nasty physical prospect in Cormier who has really gone nowhere, Salmela who had all sorts of promise but never really put it all together, and a late first. Shelf those pipe dreams of getting back Galchenyuk, Johansen, or anything like that; maybe go to Nashville and get like Fisher, Ekholm/Ellis, maybe one of their good-but-redundant defensive prospects and a pick. That's about equivalent. UFAs don't bring back magic beans, and definitely don't bring back equivalent roster pieces to another conference contender.

It's as I've said before, to me, the Kopitar contract is a message one way or another. If he signs, no matter what, we're going for it this year. If he's traded, we're officially rebuilding (retooling?). I'm inclined to believe DL is working on the contract otherwise he wouldn't have brought Lucic here for a year. We're competing this year, and that might be it.

Edit: and as another scary thought, if we're going for it...I wouldn't necessarily be happy about this part, but I could see DL going scorched earth and trading a major prospect like Kempe or someone else for D help.

 

[TopT]

My cap "prediction" is not foggy. It is based on the economic facts that exist today. The Canadian economy and it's dollar are negatively effected by the drop in oil prices. A disproportionate amount of NHL revenue comes from the Candian teams in Canadian dollars which is then converted to U.S. dollars to calculate the salary cap. The cap is not going up by a significant amount anytime soon.

Kopitar was a key member of both cup teams. He was not DOMINANT. He was very, very good. DOMINANT is Michael Jordan in the NBA playoffs.

He may get paid, and he may get an NMC. I don't see anything other than assertive statements on your part as to why that would be a good idea going forward for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I see plenty of reasoning from damacles on why it's a bad idea.

It is based on the crap you are being feed to by the media. Fracking , sure whatever you say.
I ll just give you a clue. Saudis are going BQ in 5 years at this level of oil prices and it has nothing to do with fracking. I ll just leave it at that before we go in to politics.

and BTW
Blue Jackets willing to listen on Ryan Johansen
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1987937&page=23
thats your chance, go for it

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Idk. If we don't resign Kopitar, no sense in trying to allocate that "saved" cap space to another center. There are no other #1 centers available.

Letting Kopitar walk is synonymous with instant rebuild in my mind. We're not getting another top center within the next five years. Carter-Shore is a **** one two down the middle.

May as well just trade Brown along with Kopitar. Gaborik, Lucic, everyone. The team falls apart on paper without Kopitar.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Idk. If we don't resign Kopitar, no sense in trying to allocate that "saved" cap space to another center. There are no other #1 centers available.

Letting Kopitar walk is synonymous with instant rebuild in my mind. We're not getting another top center within the next five years. Carter-Shore is a **** one two down the middle.

May as well just trade Brown along with Kopitar. Gaborik, Lucic, everyone. The team falls apart on paper without Kopitar.

Exactly. Anyone over 29 must go in that case. Good way to lose your job unless you can convince AEG this is a minor setback...

Hell, maybe Kings17 is right. Maybe you could do Kopi and Gaborik for Galchenyuk and Scherbak or something. Lucic for a major D prospect. Quick for Hellebuyck. Do all the things! There IS an argument to be made that doing these things a year too early is better than two late, but it's flushing a season that's promising down the toilet as well as probably the next couple, and then praying that contracts taht are up soon, like Toffoli and Doughty, want to stick around.

 

[Winger23]

Idk. If we don't resign Kopitar, no sense in trying to allocate that "saved" cap space to another center. There are no other #1 centers available.

Letting Kopitar walk is synonymous with instant rebuild in my mind. We're not getting another top center within the next five years. Carter-Shore is a **** one two down the middle.

May as well just trade Brown along with Kopitar. Gaborik, Lucic, everyone. The team falls apart on paper without Kopitar.

Why do they need to obtain a number 1? Carter is already the best center on this team. They would only need a 2nd line center in return.

 

[Ron*]

Why do they need to obtain a number 1? Carter is already the best center on this team. They would only need a 2nd line center in return.

How many Kings games do you watch?

Does Carter quarterback the power play even close to how Kopitar does?

I need to see compelling arguments in order to move Kopitar. If this is the best anyone can bring it, don't even try to convince me this team is better off without Kopitar.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

We wouldn't be able to replace Kopitar. He is immensely valuable to this team. What's frustrating is that paying him $10 mil or close to it means that other valuable Kings players are going to be sent packing from this team, most likely making us much less able to compete. Meanwhile, if Kopi was honest with himself, his level of play, at least offensively, has not been commensurate with a $10 million value.

Excellent posts on this topic. I've enjoyed reading them.

Even with Kopitar, Quick, Doughty, Carter and Toffoli, the Kings still just seem to win by the skin of their teeth.

 

[TopT]

How many Kings games do you watch?

Does Carter quarterback the power play even close to how Kopitar does?

I need to see compelling arguments in order to move Kopitar. If this is the best anyone can bring it, don't even try to convince me this team is better off without Kopitar.

First 20 this year and then he stopped

 

[TopT]

We wouldn't be able to replace Kopitar. He is immensely valuable to this team. What's frustrating is that paying him $10 mil or close to it means that other valuable Kings players are going to be sent packing from this team, most likely making us much less able to compete. Meanwhile, if Kopi was honest with himself, his level of play, at least offensively, has not been commensurate with a $10 million value.

Excellent posts on this topic. I've enjoyed reading them.

Even with Kopitar, Quick, Doughty, Carter and Toffoli, the Kings still just seem to win by the skin of their teeth.

One player that makes about 2,5M

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Why do they need to obtain a number 1? Carter is already the best center on this team. They would only need a 2nd line center in return.

Do you think Carter is able to do what he does in isolation? He may even be a good #1 center, but he's not an elite #1 center and would struggle mightily seeing the assignments Kopitar sees.

I think Carter is a monster and has committed to his career, it's fantastic to see what he's able to do on a nightly basis, he really is something to watch, especially this year--but if he's drawing the best defenders and Toews, Getzlaf, Benn/Seguin, etc., we're probably in trouble. There's a reason Boudreau tried to hide Getzlaf from Kopitar and literally went out and got Kesler JUST to match up vs. him. There's a reason Chicago didn't care to throw Toews and Hossa at our other lines to any great degree. There's a reason Vlasic, McDonagh, OEL, and any other playoff opponent in the last few years has almost one-to-one icetime with a guy; can you guess who this reason is?

 

[Fishhead]

I believe whoever said that is misinterpreting the data, because there's separate stats for both.

When Kopitar is on the ice 5on5, the Kings have 323 shot attempts for. Kopitar himself has 89 shot attempts.

The stat for individuals is iCorsi:

Individual Corsi = Shots on goal + Shots directed at the net (but missed) + Shots directed at the net (but blocked).

It measures the total shot attempts a player makes. Here is the individual Corsi for the Kings per 60 minutes (5v5)

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...14&type=individual&sort=icorsi60&sortdir=DESC

The reason that Kopitar is on the ice for so many shot attempts (and his high Corsi for) is because of good defense and Brown. DB is putting shots towards the net at a ridiculous rate - 2nd in the league only to Ovechkin. Gaborik is doing OK as well. If things start to normalize for Brown, he's going to go on a major streak.

Put it this way - Trevor Lewis puts pucks towards the net roughly twice as much (per minute) as Kopitar at ES. Brown is closer to 3x as much. Anze has 15 shots 5v5 this year. Brown is at 57. That's mind boggling.

 

[Kingspiracy]

Just sign the man, He is too important to this team. Even if its something like 10 X 8. He is a player that you make fit on the team. If kopitar is signed to a contract like that, he is more valuable than being an upcoming free agent. We could always trade him in a year or two if the team needed a rebuild. Lombardi could even do a visnovsky special, thatd piss everyone off.

 

[TopT]

So you're admitting 2012 Kopitar was dominant

Of course not, but I'm talking about things beyond shooting and scoring, too, like going hard to the net and carrying possession for the entire line. But then again, I'm talking to the guy who figured a 5 goal 80 assist season would be a failure because goals.

LOL at number 2, like Montreal would do that. You keep throwing out these unrealistic trade scenarios and hoping for the best. I'm just pointing out reality. The Kings starting something "new and fresh" means a LOT more moves than simply Kopitar, and may as well dismantle at that point because we're not running around with a bunch of blue chip prospects. Go look at the haul for UFA Kovalchuk and see what we can get for Kopitar.

I don't disagree in general on Jeff Carter, but if he's our #1, he's then seeing Toews/Hossa instead of Kopitar, and you're counting on GALCHENYUK--who even friggin Montreal doesn't trust at center--to be your #2. I'm sorry, but Kopitar moves, just start dismantling the team now. I'm not counting on them catching 'lightning in a bottle', but you're conveniently forgetting Kopitar's slow start followed by PPG last year, in a year when he was clearly off--I'm simply believing what I see, and that's improved play. Unfortunately, we can't 'fix' those around him, they have to play well too...

Edit: and none of this addresses the contract. The point is, he's not going to get a 5x5 or anything like that if we're all honest with ourselves. He is going to be overpaid for his years of service. I'm fine with that at this point because we're going to be terrible and hampered by the cap in a year or two anyway, so may as well contend hard for the year or two we still can. That's all I'm saying. If we want to tear it all apart, fine, but DL has given absolutely ZERO signal of doing that (though we've been getting younger slowly/subtly, look at our D).

Montreal would take that with open arms

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

One player that makes about 2,5M

Perhaps in isolation. But just as the Toews and Kane contracts inflated Kopi's demands (we can assume,) Kopi getting 10+ million will inflate demands made by Kings players negotiating new deals.

Additionally, you are comparing a player making 2.5 to a replacement player making, say, .5 mill. What's the difference in impact on a team between a 3 mill player and a 5 mill one? Or 1.5 mill one and a 3.5 mill one? How will players slot in if players start having to play a position above their skill level? We don't have the prospects to both fill our needs and trade, nor the draft picks, and now we won't have the money. Do we start the rebuild earlier than planned?

However, if we lose Kopi, we can't contend.

 

[TopT]

He's not dead, just not worth $72M+ over 8 years. He isn't the player he once was, and I don't think playing the way that Kopitar has been playing that he is the 1C of a Stanley Cup team right now.

If the Kings are going to compete for cups over the next few seasons, Kopitar has to sign at an AAV that will allow Dean to get him some help. He may have to move Brown and retain some salary in that trade. How will he do that if a few million in cap space is tied up in Kopitar's contract that shouldn't be tied up there?

What does the trend in Kopitar's play tell you Brad? Has Kopitar been "the guy" for the last 100 games? He had 16 goals last season. His shots were way down. His shots are only slightly better this season, but he is shooting 20%. Think that will last?

I am thinking you kind of wish he sucks just to prove a point. There will always be something

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Montreal would take that with open arms

Yeah, you know, if the talk about them going for it this year is true, maybe they would. But ehhhh. Too ballsy a move for DL imo.

 

[Thrice]

Sure it does. Bad GMs will screw up and give depth players too much money. Good GMs will recognize that the big money is best spent on very special older players that stay in top shape, and on young up and coming stars.

Shorter contracts would mean players like Lecavalier would be out of the league and retired at the appropriate time.

Shorter contracts would increase parity, which is one of the main points of the salary cap.

Do people that always seem to support the NHLPA in the CBA negotiations understand that the things the owners want often improves the on-ice product? As long as the players are getting their 50/50 revenue split, they aren't getting screwed. It may be that your favorite player appears to get screwed at some point (never mind the millions of dollars he has already made) later in his career, but overall the players are doing quite well. I don't know too many businesses where the employees are guaranteed 50% of the revenue. That is not profit mind you, that's revenue.

You're advocating for a system that is little more than a redistribution of player salaries to the very top, next to nothing in the mid-range for proven role players and near minimum salaries to fill out the rest of the roster, just like the NBA. It's going to look a lot like what the Blackhawks are doing this year. Which is incredibly ironic because you've continually pointed to the way that Bowman has handled his contract negations as little more than massive errors in judgement.

The theory that non-guaranteed contracts are going to improve the play on the ice is far from assured. All non-guaranteed contracts assure is that you'll have holdouts and re-negotiations after every breakout season. It also guarantees significant roster turnover. In a sport where system comprehension and execution is absolutely vital to success, it's going to make for some very sloppy play until the fresh new faces iron out the details. How does that make the sport more enjoyable for the paying customer?

Again, it does nothing to fix the problem of under-performing over the hill stars because a portion of their contract will certainly be guaranteed, just like the NFL. If they follow the NFL model, after the player is cut, the portion that is remaining on the contract will be assessed as a penalty to the cap. Dead cap space or the fear of dead cap space is exactly what you're currently railing against. You're pushing contract ideology that doesn't do what you want it to do.

 

[likid]

Non-guaranteed contract goes also in the other way. If somebody is playing much better than his current contract is, than he can demand better contract. For example, Carter and Toffoli can probably immediately ask at least on AVV 2mio better contract...