We're Around 4 million over the cap even with Murray and Muzzin on LTIR, Who is Gone?

[13pacheco31]

Brodie was horrible in the playoffs and the 2nd half of the season. Looks like his wheels fell off.

Still need to find a cheaper alternative to fill his spot after

 

[hamzarocks]

For Samsonov if he goes to arbitration and the arbitrator awards him a 1 year 4.5M deal are we screwed?

Does he become a UFA following this deal? 4.5M is also more than we can realistically afford. Need him under 3.5M

If we dont go to arbitration than we need to trade Murray and can not buy him out

It might cost a lot to dump Murray. Hes owed 6M in cash and no one else can buy him out now.

Might cost a 1st + Murray for future considerations

Our best hope is he gets injured but as of now he is cleared and not on LTIR

We are in a bit of a tight situation with it looking tough to get out if Murray without it hurting us either now or in the future (2M dead cap next year + 1 year Samsonov deal and then UFA)

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Murray gone for picks.

Samsonov 4 millions per .

Nylander swap for Pesce... Boom, 2+ millions in cap left.

What picks? Dubas already set those on fire trying to fix his own mistakes and give a failed spoiled brat core more chances than they deserved.

If they sacrifice the 2024 1st to get rid of Murray's contract the whole front office should be tarred and feathered.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Just call Dubas and say Murray looks great, he seems poised for a big bounce back. Kyle has an eye for goalies.

I am shocked this Murray contract is proving to be an issue. Shocked i tell you.

 

[Michoulicious]

What picks? Dubas already set those on fire trying to fix his own mistakes and give a failed spoiled brat core more chances than they deserved.

If they sacrifice the 2024 1st to get rid of Murray's contract the whole front office should be tarred and feathered.

Maybe 2026 1st...

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Maybe 2026 1st...

I get that you'd love for us to get worse (which is honestly fair; we don't like your team either lol) and that's OK, but if you think about its objectively this team is already boned in the long-run and moving more picks just makes it worse.

 

[Menzinger]

For Samsonov if he goes to arbitration and the arbitrator awards him a 1 year 4.5M deal are we screwed?

Does he become a UFA following this deal? 4.5M is also more than we can realistically afford. Need him under 3.5M

If we dont go to arbitration than we need to trade Murray and can not buy him out

It might cost a lot to dump Murray. Hes owed 6M in cash and no one else can buy him out now.

Might cost a 1st + Murray for future considerations

Our best hope is he gets injured but as of now he is cleared and not on LTIR

We are in a bit of a tight situation with it looking tough to get out if Murray without it hurting us either now or in the future (2M dead cap next year + 1 year Samsonov deal and then UFA)

Samsonov has a pretty weak arbitration case. He played just 42 regular season games last year (and had only a career high of 44 games with the Caps) - he's never carried a starters workload yet. And his playoff numbers were poor. I don't think 4.5 is a risk at arbitration.

That said, he seems to like Toronto, a 1-2 year cheaper deal probably achievable without arbitration.

Personally I don't think it'll cost more than what the leafs paid to trade Mzarek (who had more term and real dollars owed to him) to move Murray. A prospect could potentially get it done, but well see.

 

[theTTC]

Glad to straighten it out! It’s actually not a tough situation to navigate. Simply fail Murray on the training camp physical and pay him to go away for the year.


Who on the team has any bonus? Knies maybe? Do you see him reaching any of them?


Willy wants to be a leaf, at the end of the day the agent works for the player and when Willy wanted to get a deal done last time he made it work even when his agent told him to sit at home and wait.

hahaha Another revisionist. C'mon, you think we're stupid? Willy sat out until the final deadline day of Dec 1. He's a mercenary like his father, who advises Willy.

We remember the team played really well until he came back, then started crapping the bed big time. And the rest is playoff history. lol

 

[Nylanderthal]

hahaha Another revisionist. C'mon, you think we're stupid? Willy sat out until the final deadline day of Dec 1. He's a mercenary like his father, who advises Willy.

We remember the team played really well until he came back, then started crapping the bed big time. And the rest is playoff history. lol

Willy is their best post season performer out of the big 4 and there’s nothing revisionist about it. He was at home and on dec 1 called Kyle and said how do we get to a deal so I can play.
That’s what happened, anything else is just you making narratives up in your head

 

[lazyboy]

As far as the 2nd buyout window is concerned, I think as long as you had a pending case the 2nd window opens up regardless of whether it was settled through negotiation or arbitration. Can anyone confirm?

 

[DarkKnight]

I am shocked this Murray contract is proving to be an issue. Shocked i tell you.

Mrazek and Murray, brings in Sparks, Hutchinson, trades for Rittich. And he looks as clueless in Pitt so far. But Marleau

 

[uncleben]

Isn’t the arbitration window July5-6 for team elected?

Aha! Yes!
That's the second window. I forgot there was a second Club Elected window. The first was within 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final.
The second is one business week after Free Agency - July 5-6.
Good catch!

So they need not depend on Samsonov choosing arbitration, necessarily, but they would still need to choose the arbitration route themselves to buyout Murray

It’s an interesting option to keep an eye on, good call highlighting it. There’s a bunch of conditions on the 2nd buyout window but triggering arbitration on Sammy having qualified him and then settling seems to meet them. Pridham level stuff.

The plot thickens...
CBA 11.18 reads as follows:

"Ordinary Course Buy-Outs Outside the Regular Period. Clubs shall have the right to exercise Ordinary Course Buy-Outs outside the regular period for Ordinary Course Buy-Outs ... However, in the event that a Club has only one salary arbitration hearing pursuant to Section 12.3(a) in a given League Year, such Club shall not be entitled to exercise such an Ordinary Course Buy-Out outside the regular period."

Emphasis my own, but essentially while somewhere like CapFriendly simplifies it and says "Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window.", it's just that, a simplification, and in fact if we have only one Section 12.3 arbitration, then we do not get the buyout window.

What's a Section 12.3 arbitration? "Club-Elected Salary Arbitration"

So we only have one player on the team eligible for arbitration (Samsonov), and if we use our second window for Club Elected Arbitration, it won't trigger a buyout window.

We're back to having to have Samsonov initiate Player Elected Arb...



To that end...

As far as the 2nd buyout window is concerned, I think as long as you had a pending case the 2nd window opens up regardless of whether it was settled through negotiation or arbitration. Can anyone confirm?

I think, looking at it more, once arbitration has been filed, any form of settlement (including player and team coming to an agreement before the hearing) still satisfies it.
At first I thought they actually needed to go through the hearing and get an arbiter's decision, but looks like just the filing is enough.

 

[The Iceman]

Willy is their best post season performer out of the big 4 and there’s nothing revisionist about it. He was at home and on dec 1 called Kyle and said how do we get to a deal so I can play.
That’s what happened, anything else is just you making narratives up in your head

Mystery player A (Lets call him Mitchy) had 14 playoff points, +7 and played 24:07/game
Mystery player B (Lets call him Willy) had 10 playoff points, -4 and played 18:45/game

Which mystery player was more valuable to his team in the playoffs?

 

[Squiffy]

The plot thickens...
CBA 11.18 reads as follows:

"Ordinary Course Buy-Outs Outside the Regular Period. Clubs shall have the right to exercise Ordinary Course Buy-Outs outside the regular period for Ordinary Course Buy-Outs ... However, in the event that a Club has only one salary arbitration hearing pursuant to Section 12.3(a) in a given League Year, such Club shall not be entitled to exercise such an Ordinary Course Buy-Out outside the regular period."

Emphasis my own, but essentially while somewhere like CapFriendly simplifies it and says "Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window.", it's just that, a simplification, and in fact if we have only one Section 12.3 arbitration, then we do not get the buyout window.

What's a Section 12.3 arbitration? "Club-Elected Salary Arbitration"

So we only have one player on the team eligible for arbitration (Samsonov), and if we use our second window for Club Elected Arbitration, it won't trigger a buyout window.

We're back to having to have Samsonov initiate Player Elected Arb....

Right you are on all counts as I see. I think the kicker here is that the Leafs would have QO’d Sammy the minimum necessary, he’s obviously not taking that, and therefor by necessity will initiate player elected arbitration, triggering the 2nd window.

We should know Wednesday 5pm-ish give or take a few hours either way.

 

[Mess]

Right you are on all counts as I see. I think the kicker here is that the Leafs would have QO’d Sammy the minimum necessary, he’s obviously not taking that, and therefor by necessity will initiate player elected arbitration, triggering the 2nd window.

The way I see it, there are two options. One, Samsonov could sign another one year deal for very low cap hit and take his raise next season. The other, and possibly more likely option, is the one suggested by Frank Seravalli. Samsonov elects to file for player elected salary arbitration. This not only ensures that there's a fair deal for both sides, it also opens a second buyout window for the Leafs - one they can use to get out of Matt Murray's contract if they can't trade him. The only issue is term. Arbitration awards can only carry a one or two year term. Samsonov reportedly wants a longer-term deal, while the Leafs prefer a shorter pact.

The solution would be to take the arbitration award, buy out Murray, and then sign a long term deal for 2024-25 when the salary cap finally goes up. Samsonov has expressed his desire to be a long-term Leaf multiple times. With him and Joseph Woll as our tandem for the foreseeable future. The Leafs look to be in good shape between the pipes.

 

[Squiffy]

My CBA brother from way back @Mess

 

[Mess]

My CBA brother from way back @Mess

The good old days, Pal.

My question/concern is 2 or 3 fold.

In the offseason there is a 10% overage slush fund for teams to exceed the hard cap ceiling so that means + $8.35 mil of which the Leafs are currently at. However I can't recall if offseason LTIR (Muzzin) is in addition to that, or was designed for exactly issues like that to be used in the 10%?,

1) Does that make the Leafs vulnerable to an Offersheet for Samsonov with no cap room to match?

2) If Sammy does take the Leafs to arbitration and the award is too high like say $6 mil would the Leafs walk away, ,making him a UFA and instead of buying out Murray he is the Leafs backup this year?

3) If Sammy does not choose Arb. then Leafs can't buyout Murray and must find a taker in trade or they will not have room to resign him.

Any on these valid issues or concerns?

 

[Squiffy]

The good old days, Pal.

They still owe us. Us fossils gotta keep on keeping on.

 

[DarkKnight]

Mystery player A (Lets call him Mitchy) had 14 playoff points, +7 and played 24:07/game
Mystery player B (Lets call him Willy) had 10 playoff points, -4 and played 18:45/game

Which mystery player was more valuable to his team in the playoffs?

Marner disappeared when we needed him. Nylander was embarrassing at times, needed to be sheltered and didn’t resemble anything you win a cup with.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

The good old days, Pal.

My question/concern is 2 or 3 fold.

In the offseason there is a 10% overage slush fund for teams to exceed the hard cap ceiling so that means + $8.35 mil of which the Leafs are currently at. However I can't recall if offseason LTIR (Muzzin) is in addition to that, or was designed for exactly issues like that to be used in the 10%?,

1) Does that make the Leafs vulnerable to an Offersheet for Samsonov with no cap room to match?

2) If Sammy does take the Leafs to arbitration and the award is too high like say $6 mil would the Leafs walk away, ,making him a UFA and instead of buying out Murray he is the Leafs backup this year?

3) If Sammy does not choose Arb. then Leafs can't buyout Murray and must find a taker in trade or they will not have room to resign him.

Any on these valid issues or concerns?

Normally an injured player is counted on the roster until the last day of the offseason when they are moved over to LTIR, but in the case of permanent LTIR candidates, such as Muzzin, the rules are different.

I'm no expert, but I think the applicable section of the CBA is as follows:

Article 50.10.d

(d) Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/ challenge Exception to the Upper Limit. In the event that a Player on a Club becomes unfit to play (i. e., is injured, ill or disabled and unable to perform his duties as a hockey Player) such that the Club’s physician believes, in his or her opinion, that the Player, owing to either an injury or an challenge, will be unfit to play for at least (i) twenty-four (24) calendar days and (ii) ten (10) NHL Regular Season games, and such Club desires to replace such Player, the Club may add an additional Player or Players to its Active Roster, and the replacement Player Salary and Bonuses of such additional Player (s) may increase the Club’s Averaged Club Salary to an amount up to and exceeding the Upper Limit.

What this means, is that if a player is permanent LTIR, he basically does not exist on the roster. He is to be replaced with another player and the team is allowed to exceed the maximum cap space by the same amount as the player that is permanent LTIR. His roster spot and contract do not count against the team that holds his contract.

This applies in the off-season as well as the regular season.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

as of now he is cleared and not on LTIR

This is just ridiculous.

How many times is this guy going to pretend he won't be injured.

He was an NHL starter for 2 years, and then played at a low level backup for 6 years straight *IN A ROW*. He's been unable be healthy for 4 years IN A ROW.

He won't get another NHL contract after this one. He knows it. Or should. Playing is pointless. Sorry bro.

 

[Mess]

Normally an injured player is counted on the roster until the last day of the offseason when they are moved over to LTIR, but in the case of permanent LTIR candidates, such as Muzzin, the rules are different.

I'm no expert, but I think the applicable section of the CBA is as follows:

Article 50.10.d

(d) Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/ challenge Exception to the Upper Limit. In the event that a Player on a Club becomes unfit to play (i. e., is injured, ill or disabled and unable to perform his duties as a hockey Player) such that the Club’s physician believes, in his or her opinion, that the Player, owing to either an injury or an challenge, will be unfit to play for at least (i) twenty-four (24) calendar days and (ii) ten (10) NHL Regular Season games, and such Club desires to replace such Player, the Club may add an additional Player or Players to its Active Roster, and the replacement Player Salary and Bonuses of such additional Player (s) may increase the Club’s Averaged Club Salary to an amount up to and exceeding the Upper Limit.

What this means, is that if a player is permanent LTIR, he basically does not exist on the roster. He is to be replaced with another player and the team is allowed to exceed the maximum cap space by the same amount as the player that is permanent LTIR. His roster spot and contract do not count against the team that holds his contract.

This applies in the off-season as well as the regular season.

Thanks for the official research.

The Salary Cap for 2023-24 is $83,500,000
The off-season Salary Cap slush fund in +10% of Hard Ceiling = +$8.35 mil above the cap = $91.35 mil artificial off-season salary cap spending limit,

Leafs currently at

Jake Muzzin is the $5.625 mil LTIR candidate in this. This seems to suggest that is total is among the off-season overage limit based on the -$3.2 mil total.

 

[PromisedLand]

The "plan" to offset the signings is likely a combination of a few guys getting moved out like Murray and Jarnkrok. Maybe someone like Timmins, ect, Gio retires or even a Brodie trade. Or they could get creative with a 20 man roster and see what happens over the first few weeks of the season.

A Nylander trade could potentially happen eventually if the extension negotiations aren't successful, but i doubt it's immediately the plan to move 40 goal guy to make room for 1 year of Domi.

Isn't Gio a +35 contract? even if he retires his cap hit will count. or do I have this wrong?

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Thanks for the official research.

The Salary Cap for 2023-24 is $83,500,000
The off-season Salary Cap slush fund in +10% of Hard Ceiling = +$8.35 mil above the cap = $91.35 mil artificial off-season salary cap spending limit,

Leafs currently at

View attachment 726021

Jake Muzzin is the $5.625 mil LTIR candidate in this. This seems to suggest that is total is among the off-season overage limit based on the -$3.2 mil total.

I'm looking at the top number where it says projected cap hit of $92.33M.

With 10% overage in the offseason, teams are only allowed to be at $91.85M. So the Leafs are above the 10% cushion allowed during the offseason. That means Muzzin's LTIR has to be accounted for already.

Which I guess is what that explainer at the bottom is trying to get across, but doesn't do a very good job.

 

[PromisedLand]

The good old days, Pal.

My question/concern is 2 or 3 fold.

In the offseason there is a 10% overage slush fund for teams to exceed the hard cap ceiling so that means + $8.35 mil of which the Leafs are currently at. However I can't recall if offseason LTIR (Muzzin) is in addition to that, or was designed for exactly issues like that to be used in the 10%?,

1) Does that make the Leafs vulnerable to an Offersheet for Samsonov with no cap room to match?

2) If Sammy does take the Leafs to arbitration and the award is too high like say $6 mil would the Leafs walk away, ,making him a UFA and instead of buying out Murray he is the Leafs backup this year?

3) If Sammy does not choose Arb. then Leafs can't buyout Murray and must find a taker in trade or they will not have room to resign him.

Any on these valid issues or concerns?

Wouldn't it be in the best self interest of Murray to go on LTIR, collect his full pay while giving himself a full year to heal/recover. ?

Just thinking hypothetically... even if Leafs buyout Murray, is there any other team that will offer Murray enough money to make up for his lost earnings? Am not sure if there are teams out there given Murray's injury history who will be looking to sign him.