Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[Cosmix]

People want to judge and label the pick a bust etc.
hey people, patience.

This team needs a few things. One of them is a player like Boucher. Check

One of them is a player like Wilson. Another is a player like Mathews.

 

[Cosmix]

Have definitely been involved with junior hockey for the better part of 20 years at some different levels and roles, have watched and followed a ton.

Show nearly every year I make just as many, if not more, bad assessments as I do good ones.

Would not be the first time I missed the mark on a player, and wouldn’t be the last.

Drafting is about projecting the level of play of young growing players. It is impossible to be 100% accurate in making future projections because not all players progress at the same rate and some plateau or decline for various reasons. I don't see the players enough to provide informed opinions.

I appreciate your comments as always.

 

[Ice-Tray]

LOL so easily triggered! Chill out man, you are getting too worked up. Or write a crazy long reply, you do you.

Stats are stats - I am not altering them or colouring them with my opinion. They pretty easily show he isn't scoring much.

Is there an alternate reality where the scoring stats are better? Please share those and we can discuss.

Ahhh, the I’m a cool dude “relax man” card lol! It’s posting online dude, I’m always chill, as I imagine you are. As for being triggered, just a little push back for your mocking comments towards me in a couple threads. It was well deserved no need to try and deflect now.

Here’s the crazy long response you requested:

Stats are numbers, that is all. The interpretation is done subjectively by the person. You’ve moved the goalposts here to be about raw stats, when my original comment was about you basically telling folks to stop posting positives they see live because the stats ‘say’ something else. I noticed that you have since walked back on the statement so it appears that we agree somewhat.

Then you doubled down again by stating that your reality, based on your interpretation of stats and shutting down the opinions of those who view him live, is the only reality out there, referring specifically to me, and throwing a few mocking comments in there.

I thought it was a bold thing to say, and something that deserved a little challenge. I’m sure you’d agree if you were able to look at our conversation objectively.

I agree with many in here that he’s had a bad year, and not just for his draft position, but he’s also show glimpses of the tools that Dorion and Mann talked about when they drafted him.

In the end he has to take the bull by the horns next year and silence his critics.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I agree, right now he seems to be trending towards a Clutterbuck type player on the high end, valuable player that I'll be thrilled to have on the team, and it's still possible that he becomes more than that. But at 10 OA, you want more than Clutterbuck imo.

I'll swing for another Chabot or a Barzal rather than take a surefire Clutterbuck at 10, even if it means ending up with a Logan Brown from time to time.

True, but it might be nice to swing on a Brown, then reach for a Clutterbuck, kind of rotate so that we at least continue to bring valuable pieces onto the team. I think I’d be more bummed if we missed on a ‘Brown’ pick again so soon.

Throw a Stu and Sandy in the mix in between and we’re golden!

 

[God Says No]

This is just my subjective take, but from what I've seen of Boucher's play and from the research that I've done I'm very confident that he will be the next Tom Wilson. I believe he will be as physically imposing and as intimidating and his production will be very similar. I like him as a prospect and while I appreciate the arguments questioning him being picked so high, I believe in the long run he will justify the selection,

I give serious consideration and reflection to the different perspectives on here, and I feel that some have made some compelling arguments, which I respect the effort put into making them, but I am still confident in my subjective assessment. It seems like it is a controversial take and one that a lot of people are in disagreement with, but I believe Boucher will be successful. Time will tell whether my subjective insights hold merit or whether I will be a fool for believing them, but I am willing to roll that dice.

I highly doubt that. He's not as physical as Wilson or as big as Wilson. I don't see it. He's closer to your boy Kole Sherwood than he is to Tom Wilson.

 

[Larionov]

67's had two huge games this weekend, and came out with three big points to avoid a first round matchup with Hamilton. Great outcome for the team! Tyler Boucher, unfortunately, despite getting tons of minutes in both games, had zero points. People can rationalize this all they like, but that's a huge red flag. He's now had three months, and 24 games overall, to get used to the OHL. He should be dominating, and instead he is scoring like a guy who will be playing for Carleton or U of O when his junior eligibility runs out. Absolutely nothing about him screams, "pro prospect" other than the fact that he likes to play physical. Well, so do a whole bunch of guys in the ECHL. (Cal Clutterbuck, who some feel might be a decent Boucher comparable, was better than a point a game guy in the OHL in his draft year, and had 89 points in his D+1 year.)

My take - our scouting staff looked at the COVID year and instead of just going by what limited tape they saw, decided to do some projecting so that they could find some steals. In doing so, they ended up making a terrible reach on a first round pick. (TBH, our entire 2021 draft is looking shaky, but that's a different thread.) If in fact Tyler Boucher turns it around and becomes an NHL regular I'll happily eat my words, but I'm not sure there has even been a player who has been this middling as a CHL player suddenly turn it around and become an NHLer. If someone has an example, I'd love to see it...

 

[Larionov]

I agree, right now he seems to be trending towards a Clutterbuck type player on the high end, valuable player that I'll be thrilled to have on the team, and it's still possible that he becomes more than that. But at 10 OA, you want more than Clutterbuck imo.

I'll swing for another Chabot or a Barzal rather than take a surefire Clutterbuck at 10, even if it means ending up with a Logan Brown from time to time.

Clutterbuck was a much better junior scorer than Boucher has been so far. At this point, I'd be delighted if Boucher turned into Clutterbuck, but I don't even see that right now.

 

[OD99]

Ahhh, the I’m a cool dude “relax man” card lol! It’s posting online dude, I’m always chill, as I imagine you are. As for being triggered, just a little push back for your mocking comments towards me in a couple threads. It was well deserved no need to try and deflect now.

Here’s the crazy long response you requested:

Stats are numbers, that is all. The interpretation is done subjectively by the person. You’ve moved the goalposts here to be about raw stats, when my original comment was about you basically telling folks to stop posting positives they see live because the stats ‘say’ something else. I noticed that you have since walked back on the statement so it appears that we agree somewhat.

Then you doubled down again by stating that your reality, based on your interpretation of stats and shutting down the opinions of those who view him live, is the only reality out there, referring specifically to me, and throwing a few mocking comments in there.

I thought it was a bold thing to say, and something that deserved a little challenge. I’m sure you’d agree if you were able to look at our conversation objectively.

I agree with many in here that he’s had a bad year, and not just for his draft position, but he’s also show glimpses of the tools that Dorion and Mann talked about when they drafted him.

In the end he has to take the bull by the horns next year and silence his critics.

You never disappoint...all knowing, all understanding all the time. What a burden to believe you are so enlightened.

Yes stats are numbers and in this case the numbers are quite damning which seems obvious but if you really want someone to succeed I could see how you could manufacture a narrative to wash the numbers away.

"He needs to adjust", "He needs to have better players around him", "He needs the puck in better places", "He needs to play against better competition" and so on.

Great, I truly hope all the reasons listed above are valid and he turns it around to be an impactful player for the Ottawa Senators. At this moment do I believe they make sense? Nope but that's fine.

My point previously was never to have people stop talking or being happy about his potential. I did and still do think it is peculiar how pretty basic plays were highlighted here as some evidence of his hockey prowess and I pointed that out.

You don't like it, no worries. I am not looking to change any minds and certainly don't want or expect people to stop posting their thoughts.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I highly doubt that. He's not as physical as Wilson or as big as Wilson. I don't see it. He's closer to your boy Kole Sherwood than he is to Tom Wilson.

Boucher is 2 inches shorter and 15-20 pounds heavier at their drafts.

 

[DJB]

Cole Sillinger.

Im still saddened we passed on him

 

[BondraTime]

Boucher is 2 inches shorter and 15-20 pounds heavier at their drafts.

Wilson was 6’3.5 and 205 at the draft combine 2 months prior to the draft.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wilson was 6’3.5 and 205 at the draft combine 2 months prior to the draft.

Tom Wilson | Tom Wilson Profile | Tom Wilson Scouting Report 2012

Tom Wilson scouting report for NHL Draft. Profile contains Tom Wilson stats, videos and written bios

www.mynhldraft.com

 

[BondraTime]

Tom Wilson | Tom Wilson Profile | Tom Wilson Scouting Report 2012

Tom Wilson scouting report for NHL Draft. Profile contains Tom Wilson stats, videos and written bios

www.mynhldraft.com

The draft combine has all guys get measured by the NHL, their sizes are checked and given to all teams, because weights and heights are not accurate coming from teams. There was no combine this year, we have no clue what Boucher’s measurements actually were.

Even if 195 was accurate, Boucher wasn’t 210-215 at the draft.

NHL Draft Combine 2012, Official Heights and Weights

I’ve had many people ask about heights and weights of players in the NHL Draft. The official team released numbers by the prospects current clubs are often inaccurate. But I’ve managed to get the info from the recent NHL Combine. So here you guys go, a handy resource of accurate NHL draft...

lastwordonsports.com

 

[Golden_Jet]

The draft combine has all guys get measured by the NHL, their sizes are checked and given to all teams. There was no combine this year, we have no clue what Boucher’s measurements actually were.

NHL Draft Combine 2012, Official Heights and Weights

I’ve had many people ask about heights and weights of players in the NHL Draft. The official team released numbers by the prospects current clubs are often inaccurate. But I’ve managed to get the info from the recent NHL Combine. So here you guys go, a handy resource of accurate NHL draft...

lastwordonsports.com

Thanks, I’m sure the combine is more accurate. So ya Wilson is taller, and I guess Boucher is stockier.

 

[BondraTime]

Thanks, I’m sure the combine is more accurate. So ya Wilson is taller, and I guess Boucher is stockier.

Yeah, Wilson has a much bigger frame for sure, Boucher was more physically built into his frame at the draft.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Hope you’re right, but I don’t see any way that is happening, he isnt a heavyweight and can’t/won’t play the role Wilson does.

I don’t understand that comparison, they aren’t similar players whatsoever

The way I see it, from a physical standpoint, the only real constraint that Boucher has in order to be comparable to Wilson is height. It is not within his control how tall he ends up being. He does however have quite a bit of control over how much he weighs and how strong he is. If he continues to work at it Boucher could be 225+ and be as strong if not stronger than Wilson.

Physiologically the height disparity isn't really a constraint in what his maximal strength and power output potential could be. At least theoretically it would be possible for Boucher to actually be significantly stronger than Wilson. Certainly there is no guarantee that will be the case but it is important to note that how strong and powerful Boucher could eventually become is largely within his control.

Given that Boucher is already dedicated to achieving his peak athletic potential (and most likely his peak strength and power potential) it is highly likely that whatever he can be athletically he will be. The only real caveat is that time is finite so he will have to balance the time allocated to strength and power development with hockey specific athletic development and hockey skill development.

At his peak he could possibly be comparable to someone like Ryan Reaves (6'2, 225 lbs) or Nic Deslauriers (6'1, 220 lbs) in terms of strength, power and how imposing they are. Clutterbuck is a fine example as well but there is at least the potential there for him to be significantly stronger and more powerful. It will really come down to how dedicated he is to continue that development and how competitive he is to keep challenging himself to reach higher peaks in strength and power.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I highly doubt that. He's not as physical as Wilson or as big as Wilson. I don't see it. He's closer to your boy Kole Sherwood than he is to Tom Wilson.

I get the distinct impression that Sherwood isn't coachable. I really liked the physical tools he brought the the table, as I'm sure the Sens did as well, but they moved on from him about one month into the season and that to me is telling. Troy Mann likes those kinds of players and from everything I have heard from him, he is a patient guy who has all the time in the world for players that want to be coached. He constantly stresses the message that players need to meet him half way. I don't think the Sens would have moved on from Sherwood if they thought they could really coach him.

I watched some of his play in Belleville early on and I did find he played way too much like an individual. He didn't really use his teammates very well, relied heavily on individual performances and wasn't really playing very structured hockey. Before he got cut in training camp I remember DJ Smith speaking about the bubble players and mentioning that they need to figure out whether they can play in their system or not. I get the sense that Sherwood was one of the players he was referring to. NHL teams don't like players that are too individual and can't play structured hockey and in the rare cases they give them a chance they are usually offensive dynamos. Role players have to play structured hockey otherwise they don't stand any chance of playing in the NHL.

Other than some of the physical traits, I don't see Sherwood as very comparable to Boucher. All reports suggest Boucher is highly coachable and genuinely interested in the input coaches and development staff are giving him. He actually plays very structured hockey and looks to use his teammates regularly. He is also considered a good locker room guy and he sticks up for his teammates on the ice.

Sherwood is also an abnormal case when we consider how he turned pro. He got passed over in his draft as he was playing in the T1EHL 18 U and played 3 games in the USHL. He had committed to going to Boston University but got an invite the the development camp for Columbus and somehow proved himself enough to get an ELC out of the prospect camp. That in itself is really abnormal. To only play 3 games in league that NHL teams deem strong enough to draft from and then get a camp invite and get an ELC.

Boucher on the other hand was part of the USNTDP U17 and U18 teams and took part in the WHC-17 tournament. American prospects have to be pretty damn good to even be considered for such programs. There would be a lot more knowledge on a player like Boucher then there would be on a player like Sherwood. There is also a certain level of confidence NHL teams have about the kinds of players coming out of the USNTDP. These prospects play structured hockey, are often well suited for the pro game, are very dedicated to further their development and are solid character guys. They would be kicked out of the program if they weren't. Boucher is also the son of a former NHL player so he has a much clearer understanding of what it takes to succeed at the NHL level, how to handle himself like a professional, how to take feedback from organizations, coaches, development staff and how hard he will need to work.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

The way I see it, from a physical standpoint, the only real constraint that Boucher has in order to be comparable to Wilson is height. It is not within his control how tall he ends up being. He does however have quite a bit of control over how much he weighs and how strong he is. If he continues to work at it Boucher could be 225+ and be as strong if not stronger than Wilson.

Physiologically the height disparity isn't really a constraint in what his maximal strength and power output potential could be. At least theoretically it would be possible for Boucher to actually be significantly stronger than Wilson. Certainly there is no guarantee that will be the case but it is important to note that how strong and powerful Boucher could eventually become is largely within his control.

Given that Boucher is already dedicated to achieving his peak athletic potential (and most likely his peak strength and power potential) it is highly likely that whatever he can be athletically he will be. The only real caveat is that time is finite so he will have to balance the time allocated to strength and power development with hockey specific athletic development and hockey skill development.

At his peak he could possibly be comparable to someone like Ryan Reaves (6'2, 225 lbs) or Nic Deslauriers (6'1, 220 lbs) in terms of strength, power and how imposing they are. Clutterbuck is a fine example as well but there is at least the potential there for him to be significantly stronger and more powerful. It will really come down to how dedicated he is to continue that development and how competitive he is to keep challenging himself to reach higher peaks in strength and power.

Theoretically true bur Wilson was also fighting OHL heavyweights by age 16. Boucher has never been that type of enforcer.

 

[BondraTime]

Theoretically true bur Wilson was also fighting OHL heavyweights by age 16. Boucher has never been that type of enforcer.

It’s not his game, he’s not going to be a guy that brings intimidation through fighting. Wilson was feared by every team he played against from midget through to junior, and then became a feared fighter in the NHL by the time he was 20. Wilson had 20 OHL fights prior to being drafted in less than 80 games, he was an old school enforcer, who is able to play up the lineup and pot 50ish points, though it still took 7 years after his draft to realize that kind of play.

Boucher is not that kind of player, at all. He’s an incredible hitter, he’s not an enforcer.

 

[Icelevel]

It’s not his game, he’s not going to be a guy that brings intimidation through fighting. Wilson was feared by every team he played against from midget through to junior, and then became a feared fighter in the NHL by the time he was 20. Wilson had 20 OHL fights prior to being drafted in less than 80 games, he was an old school enforcer, who is able to play up the lineup and pot 50ish points, though it still took 7 years after his draft to realize that kind of play.

Boucher is not that kind of player, at all. He’s an incredible hitter, he’s not an enforcer.

But very capable of 50 pts in the NHL.
Potentially.
I’d guess that’s around where he ends up 40-60 point physical player.

 

[God Says No]

Yeah, Wilson has a much bigger frame for sure, Boucher was more physically built into his frame at the draft.

I don't see Boucher getting much bigger than he is now. Perhaps stronger but not bigger. As you mentioned Wilson is a monster (not just in hitting). Bouche

I get the distinct impression that Sherwood isn't coachable. I really liked the physical tools he brought the the table, as I'm sure the Sens did as well, but they moved on from him about one month into the season and that to me is telling. Troy Mann likes those kinds of players and from everything I have heard from him, he is a patient guy who has all the time in the world for players that want to be coached. He constantly stresses the message that players need to meet him half way. I don't think the Sens would have moved on from Sherwood if they thought they could really coach him.

I watched some of his play in Belleville early on and I did find he played way too much like an individual. He didn't really use his teammates very well, relied heavily on individual performances and wasn't really playing very structured hockey. Before he got cut in training camp I remember DJ Smith speaking about the bubble players and mentioning that they need to figure out whether they can play in their system or not. I get the sense that Sherwood was one of the players he was referring to. NHL teams don't like players that are too individual and can't play structured hockey and in the rare cases they give them a chance they are usually offensive dynamos. Role players have to play structured hockey otherwise they don't stand any chance of playing in the NHL.

Other than some of the physical traits, I don't see Sherwood as very comparable to Boucher. All reports suggest Boucher is highly coachable and genuinely interested in the input coaches and development staff are giving him. He actually plays very structured hockey and looks to use his teammates regularly. He is also considered a good locker room guy and he sticks up for his teammates on the ice.

Sherwood is also an abnormal case when we consider how he turned pro. He got passed over in his draft as he was playing in the T1EHL 18 U and played 3 games in the USHL. He had committed to going to Boston University but got an invite the the development camp for Columbus and somehow proved himself enough to get an ELC out of the prospect camp. That in itself is really abnormal. To only play 3 games in league that NHL teams deem strong enough to draft from and then get a camp invite and get an ELC.

Boucher on the other hand was part of the USNTDP U17 and U18 teams and took part in the WHC-17 tournament. American prospects have to be pretty damn good to even be considered for such programs. There would be a lot more knowledge on a player like Boucher then there would be on a player like Sherwood. There is also a certain level of confidence NHL teams have about the kinds of players coming out of the USNTDP. These prospects play structured hockey, are often well suited for the pro game, are very dedicated to further their development and are solid character guys. They would be kicked out of the program if they weren't. Boucher is also the son of a former NHL player so he has a much clearer understanding of what it takes to succeed at the NHL level, how to handle himself like a professional, how to take feedback from organizations, coaches, development staff and how hard he will need to work.

Yip, Boucher seems to be coachable, but strictly speaking of physical traits Boucher fits Sherwood to a tee. They are even the same height and weight. They are scoring at the same clip in the OHL at their respective ages.

So just like I said, Boucher is closer to Sherwood than he is to Wilson. It's not a good comparison.

 

[BondraTime]

But very capable of 50 pts in the NHL.
Potentially.
I’d guess that’s around where he ends up 40-60 point physical player.

I don’t see that watching him now, time will tell watching him over the next few years with hopefully some big developments, but right now he’s definitely not looking like a guy who will be a 0.5-07ppg player in the NHL. He’s at the lower end of that spectrum in the OHL right now.

That was my hope when he was drafted, watching him this year he lowered my expectations by a significant amount.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Boucher is still pretty raw at this point but I do think there is some intriguing ability there. After watching quite a bit of his play this season, there are a few things I would like to see him work on. The biggest thing for me would be his puck control. He is capable of carrying the puck and makes smart plays with it but he isn't always as strong on his stick and doesn't always use his strength to shield the puck well. I would like to see him make improvements in this aspect of his game as I think it would have positive results on the rest of his game.

He has a good shot and makes smart passes but sometimes he seems to rush them. I think if he was able to shield the puck better and make it harder for opponents to get the puck from him that he would have more poise and composure which would allow him to pick corners and set up plays. Related to this, I would like to see him dominate along the boards. He has really solid skating and edge work and uses a lot of pivots and curlbacks but again he doesn't always shield the puck well and sometimes might not be hard enough on the puck which leads him to lose control of it.

I will probably get shit on for saying this but I actually see a stylistic comparison to Crosby in his game. Not the same upside or offensive skill but there are aspects of his game that I feel Boucher stylistically compares with and I think it could be a good model for Boucher to look to emulate. Crosby has a very stocky build and he uses that along with his skating and skill to excel at puck protection. I see Boucher attempt things that look similar to Crosby but he still needs a lot more work. If he can continue to work on his skating and look to emulate Crosby's puck protection game, defensive play and have a small fraction of the skill plus adding his physicality I think he could be a pretty damn valuable player.

Here is some footage on Crosby's puck protection game so people can understand better what I am referring to.

 

[Ouroboros]

In a way Tyler Boucher is just like Sidney Crosby. I've always said that.

 

[LeProspector]

While we’re at it - Alex Formenton is just like McDavid!