Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[ottawah]

I was oversimplifying it to two broad categories of optimists and pessimists. I probably should have stated it differently to avoid any confusion. What I was referring to specifically when referencing "pessimists" was the group of people who have taken a strong negative stance on what Boucher will eventually become. That have in some ways written off the possibility of future spikes in growth and have imposed a low cap on what he will eventually become when he has completed his development. I was not looking to diminish or dismiss how his current production and other information surrounding his draft rankings have created justification for a more doubtful outlook.

I think its far more varied than that. I am "hopeful", but also a pragmatist. When I see comparables like Wilson and Rantenan thrown around, it makes me shake my head.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I think its far more varied than that. I am "hopeful", but also a pragmatist. When I see comparables like Wilson and Rantenan thrown around, it makes me shake my head.

Someone compared Boucher to Rantanen?

 

[BondraTime]

Can’t say I’ve ever heard of a Rantanen comparison. Maybe someone compared where they were both drafted, but obviously Boucher would never be compared to a star like Rantanen.

The Wilson comparisons are definitely strange to me though.

 

[Sensinitis]

Looks like he might end up being an Austin Watson type of player, but hopefully he’s a late bloomer and surprises us. Sillinger would look great on this team right now so that pick obviously stings.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Looks like he might end up being an Austin Watson type of player, but hopefully he’s a late bloomer and surprises us. Sillinger would look great on this team right now so that pick obviously stings.

Watson, by his own admission, has been dealing with anxiety, depression and alcoholism since the age of 18. These are significant issues that would derail the development of any prospect. From what I understand none of his mental health issues were dealt with in a healthy way until after he entered the NHL substance abuse program. Mental health issues can be a real tragic thing as it can be quite difficult for people who suffer from them to get better.

It is unclear what Watson would have been if he didn't have those issues or was able to address them in a more healthy and productive way at a younger age but it certainly had a negative impact on his overall development. That makes it difficult to compare Boucher to him as that is a pretty significant variable that negatively impacts development that Boucher doesn't appear to have.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[OD99]

He showed off his shot in the 2nd last goal...loads of time in the high slot but he ripped it.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

He showed off his shot in the 2nd last goal...loads of time in the high slot but he ripped it.

Yah I watched several games I remember that goal

 

[ottawah]

I think he has the upside to be like Mikko Rantanan.

Yes, he was compared to Rantenan

 

[BondraTime]

Yes, he was compared to Rantenan

Have never seen that poster here before, and it looks to be a troll account seeing it joined Jan 2022 and was deleted Mar 2022.

 

[Micklebot]

Have never seen that poster here before, and it looks to be a troll account seeing it joined Jan 2022 and was deleted Mar 2022.

certainly not an account one should go to for reliable scouting reports...

 

[Icelevel]

Yes, he was compared to Rantenan

Looks like a joke. I’ve seen those before on here.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

One way to possibly create more consensus around here is to properly classify the perspectives as either speculative or pragmatic. All perspectives are technically speculative, but here we could classify speculative perspectives as those that rely more on logical possibilities and less on strong evidence. Alternatively, pragmatic perspectives would be the opposite, relying heavily on what the evidence suggests and less so on theoretical possibilities.

We can use some of my takes to help illustrate this point. For example, I have made the comparison to Tom Wilson. Now there are likely some stylistic aspects of their games that makes comparing them questionable but let's just focus on 3 key variables here. Those variables are: 1. Will Boucher be able to hit like Wilson? 2. Will Boucher be able to fight/intimidate like Wilson? and 3. Will Boucher be able to produce points like Wilson?

The first point actually has a strong overlap to both the speculative and pragmatic perspective. Will Boucher be able to hit like Wilson? Yeah, probably. Boucher has already proven the ability to be a punishing hitter and to track player trajectories to set up open ice hits. He is very physically strong and athletic and seems very dedicated to further his development in the future. With that stated, we know Wilson has a size advantage on Boucher so that could influence his ability to make equivalent hits at the NHL level. Could Boucher end up being a similar weight and having similar strength and power to Wilson? Yeah, possibly. It is unclear if that will happen but it is certainly a possible outcome and there is a reasonable degree of probability for believing it will happen.

The second point is highly speculative. Will Boucher be able to fight/intimidate like Wilson? Thus far the evidence doesn't really support that as being a likely possibility. Boucher has had two fights in the OHL and he has done well but he doesn't have a reputation of being a feared fighter and hasn't established himself as some kind of heavyweight enforcer. If he continues to get stronger and more powerful and start training boxing seriously there is a decent chance he could be very intimidating heavyweight fighter in the NHL. But that is purely speculative because it is only a possibility. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't but it makes sense for people being pragmatic to assume he won't be that.

The third point is unclear. Will Boucher be able to produce points like Wilson? That we don't know. Boucher has some raw skill and there is a decent chance his peak upside could be a 20+ goal 40-50+ points player but there are questions on whether that is attainable for him. Is his current production trending in a way comparable to Wilson at the same age? No, it isn't. His production is comparable to Wilson at a year younger than his current age. Should his current production gives confidence that he will eventually become a 20+ goal, 40-50 point player? No, it shouldn't. His current production suggests a much lower upside than that. Could he still achieve that upside? Possibly. There are a lot of factors that could have negatively influenced his production this season and he could make some meaningful improvements in his game in the offseason or over the course of his development. Should we have the expectation that he will eventually produce that way in the future? The pragmatist would say no because that is not based on what the evidence is suggesting but instead based on theoretical speculation.

I could add more or make comparisons to different players but I think what I have written has illustrated the point I was trying to make. The pragmatists aren't wrong with their perspective as they are relying heavily on what the evidence is telling them. It can come across as pessimistic to people who are thinking in a speculative way as they are considering more theoretical possibilities and don't feel the need to be so constrained in their projections. Those speculating are going to look foolish to the pragmatists as the beliefs are not based on strong evidence. That is part of the risk of speculation, if you are correct you look like a genius and if you are wrong you look like an idiot. We will only know if the speculation is right in the long run so the speculators are going to look like fools and then either be confirmed as fools or if they are lucky get to look smart and insightful.

 

[OD99]

Boucher has created more discussion on how and why we feel what we feel than any prospect, ever.

I don't think any of us need or are looking to have our point of view rationalized down to some specific category and I am not judging anyone based on what they think.

 

[OD99]

All perspectives are technically speculative, but here we could classify speculative perspectives as those that rely more on logical possibilities and less on strong evidence.

This part confuses me.

How can you say something is a logical possibility without using strong evidence?

I think you may be saying that some use a broader perspective to determine the possibilities? Some look at his hits, his stride, his release, etc...and put more emphasis on those traits eventually translating to points/impact as a logical possibility?

Others look more at what those traits have translated to today to think they may not eventually translate to more points/impact so they are pragmatic?

At the end of the day I am not going to over analyze this guy. He will either eventually be an NHL player or he will join a long list of 1st rounders that for whatever reasons didn't have what it takes. Of course I hope he becomes a very good player for us.

 

[ksens]

He scored a suspicious number of these goals against kids originally from Ottawa... (Leaver, Ranger, Austin...)

 

[Sens Vader]

You know we're all gonna fall in love with him the moment he makes the team and absolutely demolishes a leafs player with a hit

 

[Adele Dazeem]

You know we're all gonna fall in love with him the moment he makes the team and absolutely demolishes a leafs player with a hit

+ Habs players*

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

+ Habs players*

Gallagher or Caufield. It's written in the stars.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

This part confuses me.

How can you say something is a logical possibility without using strong evidence?

I think you may be saying that some use a broader perspective to determine the possibilities? Some look at his hits, his stride, his release, etc...and put more emphasis on those traits eventually translating to points/impact as a logical possibility?

Others look more at what those traits have translated to today to think they may not eventually translate to more points/impact so they are pragmatic?

At the end of the day I am not going to over analyze this guy. He will either eventually be an NHL player or he will join a long list of 1st rounders that for whatever reasons didn't have what it takes. Of course I hope he becomes a very good player for us.

Well for example let's consider fighting. For one, a similar claim was made about Tkachuk after he got drafted and as we have seen he has become a pretty effective fighter and is trending in a way to likely become one of the better fighters around the league as he physically matures.

Secondly, with the way he plays everyone around him is going to stress the importance of being competent at fighting. The Senators management team and development staff will likely get Chris Neil to spend some time with him. His dad is a pretty connected guy and has played with the likes of Donald Brashear among others. He will want his son to be able to take care of himself and could also coordinate form some reputable heavyweight enforcer like Brashear to give him some tips and teach him the tricks of the trade.

He is already a workout junkie so he will have the athleticism to generate a fair amount of power. He will likely spend some time training boxing to make him more comfortable with fighting. That training would teach him the correct mechanics to generate a lot of power behind his punches. If he can develop that punching power then he will have a pretty damn good shot to win the majority of fights he gets into.

The Sens are building their culture with a strong emphasis on big, powerful and athletic players, that are physically intimidating, enjoy the rough stuff and likely are going to be good fighters. That is going to create a competitive environment where the players are pushing each other to get bigger, stronger and more powerful, to be more physically dominant, imposing and intimidating on the ice. That kind of environment will get the most out of Boucher's abilities as he will push himself to achieve his athletic potential and will want to be as physically dominant as anyone in the room and that includes being as capable and as intimidating of a fighter.

 

[BondraTime]

Don’t think fighting is even a skill the team wants Boucher to develop, it’s got such an extremely small effect in the game.

Can/will he fight? Yup, that’s great, glad he’ll drop the mitts if need be.

Do they want him fighting? Not sure why they would, he’s not a heavyweight and fighting has suck little impact in the NHL.

He was drafted for his physical play and because they projected his offense to be able to be too 6 level at the NHL. His physical play, unfortunately, seems to have been given a huge value in the Sens internal rankings.

Unless you’re a Lucic or Wilson, fighting doesn’t add much to a prospect.

 

[Sweatred]

Don’t think fighting is even a skill the team wants Boucher to develop, it’s got such an extremely small effect in the game.

Can/will he fight? Yup, that’s great.

Do they want him fighting? Not sure why they would, he’s not a heavyweight and fighting has suck little impact in the NHL.

We had no answer for Stutzle getting run the other night. It’s easy for the opposition to avoid Brady if he’s the only player who can deliver a message. I don’t care if it’s a hit or fight, but we need a few more players in the lineup that can hit and send a message.

We only have -

Brady
Watson - slowing, expiring
Kelly - 4th line minutes, needs a bit more strength.

A couple of Boucher Types on our 2-3 lines will protect Jimmy and Norris that much more. The potential of Getting run by Boucher because your teammate ran Stutzle should offer as much or more protection than a potential fight.

Boucher eliminates players, threatens careers, team health etc.

 

[Golden_Jet]

We had no answer for Stutzle getting run the other night. It’s easy for the opposition to avoid Brady if he’s the only player who can deliver a message. I don’t care if it’s a hit or fight, but we need a few more players in the lineup that can hit and send a message.

We only have -

Brady
Watson - slowing, expiring
Kelly - 4th line minutes, needs a bit more strength.

A couple of Boucher Types on our 2-3 lines will protect Jimmy and Norris that much more. The potential of Getting run by Boucher because your teammate ran Stutzle should offer as much or more protection than a potential fight.

Boucher eliminates players, threatens careers, team health etc.

We do lead the league in hits, around third or fourth in fights.

 

[bicboi64]

If he takes the "fighting" load off Tkachuk that might have some value. I love it when Tkachuk gets rough, but we need him on the ice.

Boucher being an agitator via being a hard hitter, can have some value.

 

[BondraTime]

We had no answer for Stutzle getting run the other night. It’s easy for the opposition to avoid Brady if he’s the only player who can deliver a message. I don’t care if it’s a hit or fight, but we need a few more players in the lineup that can hit and send a message.

We only have -

Brady
Watson - slowing, expiring
Kelly - 4th line minutes, needs a bit more strength.

A couple of Boucher Types on our 2-3 lines will protect Jimmy and Norris that much more. The potential of Getting run by Boucher because your teammate ran Stutzle should offer as much or more protection than a potential fight.

Boucher eliminates players, threatens careers, team health etc.

This team is already atop the league in hitting and fighting.

Yes, Boucher is going to be a physical player, he needs to be as that is his skill set.

That was my point, the physical aspect was given to much value in the scouting process. Using a 10th overall to draft a physical player, which is by far the most/only appealing trait of Boucher’s is not smart, at all.

He will absolutely have value being a 210 pound winger running around and throwing 5 hits a game. That’s not enough, for me, to use a prime draft selection with so many good options available.

Obviously the Sens view him as more, and they have all been involved long enough to be given the benefit of the doubt, but what I’ve seen in the time since the draft is not only not good, it’s about as bad as you could have gotten.

I’ll be the first to celebrate if he turns into a great, or even average player.