Speculation: Trouba Contract Discussion Part II

[MrBoJangelz71]

I think what an Overhardt sees is a GM who was weak in negotiations in the past with Pavs and Stu and will try to bully Chevy into caving again. Chevy seemed to have learned from those past mistakes and did not blink in the Ladd negotiation and got Sheifs signed to a win win contract but Overhardt is notorious for being one of the filthiest negotiators in the business and getting Trouba signed is going to be a real test of his nerve.

LOL, you make me laugh.

2 contracts signed years ago is what he sees, and will base his knowledge off of a GM from this old obsolete information? Not the dozen deals after these 2 contracts, that show Chevy getting great value from top players like Buff, Scheif, Perreault? Rather, he will use transactions from 3 to 5 years ago, and go off that information.

Ya, it sounds stupid.

Overhardt only understands one way of negotiating, which is to hold out till the end, and try to milk it as much as possible.

 

[Aavco Cup]

LOL, you make me laugh.

2 contracts signed years ago is what he sees, and will base his knowledge off of a GM from this old obsolete information? Not the dozen deals after these 2 contracts, that show Chevy getting great value from top players like Buff, Scheif, Perreault? Rather, he will use transactions from 3 to 5 years ago, and go off that information.

Ya, it sounds stupid.

Overhardt only understands one way of negotiating, which is to hold out till the end, and try to milk it as much as possible.

As Dec 1 gets closer he loses all leverage and will be begging to sign. Holding out til the end won't get him what he wants.

 

[Unholy goalie]

As Dec 1 gets closer he loses all leverage and will be begging to sign. Holding out til the end won't get him what he wants.

Dec 1st is definitely a pressure point for both sides, and Trouba has the most to lose if they hit that day without a contract. Let's be clear though, despite the risk involved there are some circumstances under which it could pay off. If, for example, the team was doing poorly defensively and Trouba's gain in salary number outweighed the cost of missing a few cheques, he could come out the benefactor of a holdout.

I'm not saying that they're going to do it, but Overhardt is certainly crazy enough to try. The scary thing is that Overhardt only really can gain leverage with some regular season games missed (in which the Jets lose).

I've been saying for some time now that this is an end of TC beginning of regular season deal. It's the Overhardt special!

 

[Aavco Cup]

Dec 1st is definitely a pressure point for both sides, and Trouba has the most to lose if they hit that day without a contract. Let's be clear though, despite the risk involved there are some circumstances under which it could pay off. If, for example, the team was doing poorly defensively and Trouba's gain in salary number outweighed the cost of missing a few cheques, he could come out the benefactor of a holdout.

I'm not saying that they're going to do it, but Overhardt is certainly crazy enough to try. The scary thing is that Overhardt only really can gain leverage with some regular season games missed (in which the Jets lose).

I've been saying for some time now that this is an end of TC beginning of regular season deal. It's the Overhardt special!

I don't think the Jets will feel that pressure. And I doubt they succumb to whatever little they feel. Why should they? They aren't trying to sell tickets, the whole fanbase will be all ga ga with Laine fever. I don't think it works with this franchise at this time.

 

[Whileee]

I'll be surprised if this lasts beyond the beginning of the regular season. There's really not much leverage to be gained by Trouba's camp beyond that, and I think that Chevy will give his best offer at that time, rather than trying to squeeze things to December 1.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I'll be surprised if this lasts beyond the beginning of the regular season. There's really not much leverage to be gained by Trouba's camp beyond that, and I think that Chevy will give his best offer at that time, rather than trying to squeeze things to December 1.

The Jets offer will not get better after Oct 13. A holdout past the start of the season only hurts Trouba in the end.

 

[Aavco Cup]

For those close to the edge this will calm you down

 

[CorgisPer60]

Transcript?

 

[mcpw]

Transcript?

Former Dallas AGM says RFAs have no leverage but try to make it look like leverage by holding out. Cites Jamie Benn.

More or less accurate "transcript". More like a tl;dr (or tl;dl)

 

[Flair Hay]

Basically Trouba's own agent will use his own client's likely struggles to get up to speed after a holdout against Chevy as a reason to not have him hold out... If Chevy calls his bluff we either have him on a sweet bridge deal or an even better long term deal than we would get today.

I worry about Trouba's willingness to give us a hometown discount. But Chevy will get an RFA discount if he handles this competently.

If Trouba wants the sweet 6 year, one more huge payday contract, he can't make over $5M per. If he wants to risk being 30 when he's done an 8 year deal, then he can have that extra million bucks a year. Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Jets should be fair and give him close to what a top pair RD would make for his UFA years open market plus a little inflation. But if he wants that he has to suck up the RFA years.

 

[Unholy goalie]

I don't think the Jets will feel that pressure. And I doubt they succumb to whatever little they feel. Why should they? They aren't trying to sell tickets, the whole fanbase will be all ga ga with Laine fever. I don't think it works with this franchise at this time.

They shouldn't, theoretically. I just want to dispel the notion that there's absolutely nothing to gain from the kind of moves Trouba's camp is making. I also don't think that Overhardt's leverage decreases incrementally over time. If anything his bet hedges on several preseason games played and a small number of regular season losses. His peak leverage would occur at this time. Sure, Trouba is the one who ultimately loses if it were to go the distance, but it's not like the Jets wouldn't be missing something important if he sat out for a while.

I'm confident that Chevy's approach is tailor made for this kind of standoff. I just hope that there aren't any burned or damaged bridges left in the wake of what will hopefully be a longterm deal.

 

[buggs]

They shouldn't, theoretically. I just want to dispel the notion that there's absolutely nothing to gain from the kind of moves Trouba's camp is making. I also don't think that Overhardt's leverage decreases incrementally over time. If anything his bet hedges on several preseason games played and a small number of regular season losses. His peak leverage would occur at this time. Sure, Trouba is the one who ultimately loses if it were to go the distance, but it's not like the Jets wouldn't be missing something important if he sat out for a while.

I'm confident that Chevy's approach is tailor made for this kind of standoff. I just hope that there aren't any burned or damaged bridges left in the wake of what will hopefully be a longterm deal.

Every game Trouba holds out he's losing money...about $50+ K per game depending om the deal. Ten games and he's down half a million dollars. Playing that game until December first will cost him a third of his salary for the year and lump him directly into the Tkachuk love camp. Thirty years from now there will be debates on hfjets about how nobody wants to draft Trouba jr. because his dad held out. Book it.

 

[Unholy goalie]

Every game Trouba holds out he's losing money...about $50+ K per game depending om the deal. Ten games and he's down half a million dollars. Playing that game until December first will cost him a third of his salary for the year and lump him directly into the Tkachuk love camp. Thirty years from now there will be debates on hfjets about how nobody wants to draft Trouba jr. because his dad held out. Book it.

Look... I don't think any hold out will be particularly effective. So, just to iterate, I hope Chevy stands pat here and that a long term deal gets signed.

That said, I find it interesting that so many people seem to think that Trouba's camp is shooting themselves in the foot here. Let's explore your situation further. He holds out for ten games which equals $500,000 lost wages. But then he signs a deal at 5.75 AAV x 6 years, instead of the 5.25 x 6 that the Jets initially offered (all hypothetical here). That's an extra 3M over six years, less his 0.5M in lost wages, for a net profit of 2.5M.

There are *some* circumstances under which this strategy works. As was mentioned in the radio interview posted above, agents and RFA players try to manufacture leverage because they have none. This is mostly a non-issue until you come to star players. They're basically forced to sign a contract or miss playing time. Unfortunately this fact can be abused by both sides. I'm sure some players hold out because they are lowballed, while others do it out of greed. Imo a lot of this nonsense might be solved if all RFAs had arb rights.

Back to Trouba.. my only concern at this point is that the process has taken such a path as to hurt the chances of a longterm deal. Because of this year's shortened TCs I think the likelihood that negotiations carry over into the regular season is higher.

 

[ffh]

Look... I don't think any hold out will be particularly effective. So, just to iterate, I hope Chevy stands pat here and that a long term deal gets signed.

That said, I find it interesting that so many people seem to think that Trouba's camp is shooting themselves in the foot here. Let's explore your situation further. He holds out for ten games which equals $500,000 lost wages. But then he signs a deal at 5.75 AAV x 6 years, instead of the 5.25 x 6 that the Jets initially offered (all hypothetical here). That's an extra 3M over six years, less his 0.5M in lost wages, for a net profit of 2.5M.

There are *some* circumstances under which this strategy works. As was mentioned in the radio interview posted above, agents and RFA players try to manufacture leverage because they have none. This is mostly a non-issue until you come to star players. They're basically forced to sign a contract or miss playing time. Unfortunately this fact can be abused by both sides. I'm sure some players hold out because they are lowballed, while others do it out of greed. Imo a lot of this nonsense might be solved if all RFAs had arb rights.

Back to Trouba.. my only concern at this point is that the process has taken such a path as to hurt the chances of a longterm deal. Because of this year's shortened TCs I think the likelihood that negotiations carry over into the regular season is higher.

I think if trouba got 5x6 overhardt would be doing cartwheels. lets get serious if that article that came out last December didn't have a asking price real or made up on it of 7 million a year would anyone be thinking 5.75 x6 might get it done. look at the comparables and his play over the last 2 years. really if you are the jets are you paying him more than reilly. personally I think overhardt is at 5x6 and jets closer to 4 to 4.5. I think that anything over 5 is fantasy.

 

[HannuJ]

Look... I don't think any hold out will be particularly effective. So, just to iterate, I hope Chevy stands pat here and that a long term deal gets signed.

That said, I find it interesting that so many people seem to think that Trouba's camp is shooting themselves in the foot here. Let's explore your situation further. He holds out for ten games which equals $500,000 lost wages. But then he signs a deal at 5.75 AAV x 6 years, instead of the 5.25 x 6 that the Jets initially offered (all hypothetical here). That's an extra 3M over six years, less his 0.5M in lost wages, for a net profit of 2.5M.

There are *some* circumstances under which this strategy works. As was mentioned in the radio interview posted above, agents and RFA players try to manufacture leverage because they have none. This is mostly a non-issue until you come to star players. They're basically forced to sign a contract or miss playing time. Unfortunately this fact can be abused by both sides. I'm sure some players hold out because they are lowballed, while others do it out of greed. Imo a lot of this nonsense might be solved if all RFAs had arb rights.

Back to Trouba.. my only concern at this point is that the process has taken such a path as to hurt the chances of a longterm deal. Because of this year's shortened TCs I think the likelihood that negotiations carry over into the regular season is higher.

i think Cody Franson's a good example of a good D-man who holds out as an RFA and, in the long term, pays the price.

 

[CaptainChef]

Look... I don't think any hold out will be particularly effective. So, just to iterate, I hope Chevy stands pat here and that a long term deal gets signed.

That said, I find it interesting that so many people seem to think that Trouba's camp is shooting themselves in the foot here. Let's explore your situation further. He holds out for ten games which equals $500,000 lost wages. But then he signs a deal at 5.75 AAV x 6 years, instead of the 5.25 x 6 that the Jets initially offered (all hypothetical here). That's an extra 3M over six years, less his 0.5M in lost wages, for a net profit of 2.5M.

There are *some* circumstances under which this strategy works. As was mentioned in the radio interview posted above, agents and RFA players try to manufacture leverage because they have none. This is mostly a non-issue until you come to star players. They're basically forced to sign a contract or miss playing time. Unfortunately this fact can be abused by both sides. I'm sure some players hold out because they are lowballed, while others do it out of greed. Imo a lot of this nonsense might be solved if all RFAs had arb rights.

Back to Trouba.. my only concern at this point is that the process has taken such a path as to hurt the chances of a longterm deal. Because of this year's shortened TCs I think the likelihood that negotiations carry over into the regular season is higher.

Can't see how the Jets end up giving into his demands after 10 games however. What changes to make increase Trouba's bargaining position.

Can't see how Trouba & his greedy agent don't get this done soon after getting to TC. The mere fact that neither team has let a hint of the negotiations out to the press somehow suggests to me they are close & that there really hasn't been any urgency on the part of either to cave in any before now.

I think that Trouba and his agent felt like his play at the WHC might increase his value somewhat & that the Jets might come up slightly based on that. Hasn't worked out well for Trouba at the WHC, so can't see him getting much more than 5.25 x 6 (but be more than happy to sign him at 5.5 or maybe even 5.75 if its for 7 years).

 

[surixon]

Can't see how the Jets end up giving into his demands after 10 games however. What changes to make increase Trouba's bargaining position.

Can't see how Trouba & his greedy agent don't get this done soon after getting to TC. The mere fact that neither team has let a hint of the negotiations out to the press somehow suggests to me they are close & that there really hasn't been any urgency on the part of either to cave in any before now.

I think that Trouba and his agent felt like his play at the WHC might increase his value somewhat & that the Jets might come up slightly based on that. Hasn't worked out well for Trouba at the WHC, so can't see him getting much more than 5.25 x 6 (but be more than happy to sign him at 5.5 or maybe even 5.75 if its for 7 years).

It wouldn't surprise me if Chevy and Overhardt have come to an agreement and that Overhardt as per his clients request is waiting until after the WC to present it to him.

 

[Larabee]

Given that the market value has pretty well been defined, I can see one of the major holdups is the structure of the contract in regard to lockout protection. A lot of players now (eg Ladd) are getting these contracts where a guaranteed bonus comprises the majority of the salary. Chevy would never agree to this. Chevy gave Scheif a little bit of lockout protection by structuring the contract to pay a little less for the potential lockout years, but that's as far as he will probably go.

 

[Unholy goalie]

I think if trouba got 5x6 overhardt would be doing cartwheels. lets get serious if that article that came out last December didn't have a asking price real or made up on it of 7 million a year would anyone be thinking 5.75 x6 might get it done. look at the comparables and his play over the last 2 years. really if you are the jets are you paying him more than reilly. personally I think overhardt is at 5x6 and jets closer to 4 to 4.5. I think that anything over 5 is fantasy.

I did, and I think it would pay off over the course of a long contract (6-8 years) to pay around 5.5 AAV. Whileee posted a nice 5.75 AAV contract possibility with graduated pay that was compelling.

 

[Unholy goalie]

i think Cody Franson's a good example of a good D-man who holds out as an RFA and, in the long term, pays the price.

For sure. Although Franson severely misjudged how the Leafs' cap crunch would affect him. There was literally no more money. He also wasn't reportedly looking for a longterm deal and made the mistake of not filing for arbitration.

 

[Unholy goalie]

Can't see how the Jets end up giving into his demands after 10 games however. What changes to make increase Trouba's bargaining position.

Can't see how Trouba & his greedy agent don't get this done soon after getting to TC. The mere fact that neither team has let a hint of the negotiations out to the press somehow suggests to me they are close & that there really hasn't been any urgency on the part of either to cave in any before now.

I think that Trouba and his agent felt like his play at the WHC might increase his value somewhat & that the Jets might come up slightly based on that. Hasn't worked out well for Trouba at the WHC, so can't see him getting much more than 5.25 x 6 (but be more than happy to sign him at 5.5 or maybe even 5.75 if its for 7 years).

I agree with this. I just don't see the Overhardt special working on Chevy. Doesn't mean that they are not going to drag this out into reg season games. As you noted, their WCOH gamble didn't pay off, so now they're likely looking at the next gamble which is to make the Jets feel uncomfortable with their RHD depth. That means preseason and regular season games without Trouba. Such a gamble would not pay off either unless they had injuries or people really stunk it up in preseason.

Personally I think Trouba is out for almost all of TC. Regular season holdout is a coin toss imo.

I also agree with your contract estimates.

 

[mondo3]

Have any Jet's ever held out through training camp or the regular season?

 

[pateramus]

Have any Jet's ever held out through training camp or the regular season?

I believe Jets 2.0 Bogosian would be the closest but he agreed to terms on a two-year, $5 million contract on September 14, 2011.

 

[KingBogo]

After watching Trouba get into the action last night, I really really just want to see him signed. I have little doubt if he gets freed up and starts getting big minutes on the top pairing we will see the return of the kid we saw as a rookie. IMO he belongs among the top young defenseman in the game.

 

[ffh]

ryan strome just signed. and that's how hard deadlines work. unfortunately it wont be till dec.15 for trouba. nyi have this right. no questions at tc on why hasn't strome signed yet.