McDNicks17
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He's no worse than Desharnais.
News and Blog Report: Training camp & Preseason News & Notes
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Behind Enemy Lines
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Oil have pre-purchased their trade deadline depth d-men with Brown and Stetcher. Giving them x3 and x2 terms protects against waiver claim action and their differing styles gives 3rd pair and 7th D versatility. Emberson's age, possible latent ability, and ufa status likely gets him first shot at 2RD until trade deadline upgrade.
All trade chips at deadline can focus on 2RD upgrade and retention/double retention potential with maybe a cheap get at another position.
Broberg Speed
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- Oct 23, 2020
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I believe those are realistic expectations... that's the bar. I wonder what Desharnais stat line would have looked like last season in Arizona as a stay at home defensive defenseman? Brown is s a good interview.
This is from yesterday, I love how Bouchard credits Barrie on helping him develop his power play game.
I hope Pickard gets 30 regular season game so Skinner is fresh for the postseason.
Analytically Josh Brown is arguably the worst defender to play regular minutes last year.
He is physical but he is awful at hockey.
He is a 7D arguably an AHL tweener.
Lay Z Boy GM
Registered User
He hasn’t really played on a good team yet. Let’s just see what he can do, I’m not writing anyone off yet
JeffSkinner53
Registered User
Personally my biggest concern is the lack of speed in the bottom 6. Foegle, Macleod, and Holloway can all skate. That's my one issue heading into the season.
McDNicks17
Moderator
Only by analytics that ignore all context.
onetweasy
"That's just like, your opinion, man"
Well f***.
I came into this training camp thread looking exclusively for ways to solve countless complex City planning issues and now you’ve gone and ended that…..
Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
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You sir are SOL! Take it to the OT thread Bub!
On The Prowl
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- Mar 13, 2024
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Pretty sure I saw him destroy somebody in a fight the one and only time I remember watching him.
Fourier
Registered User
At least the Oilers can say that "our scouts can beat your scouts in a street fight".
Dazed and Confused
Ludicrous speed, GO!
I think this is the only point where I'm not going to completely write him off. He didn't get into many games with them, but Boston fans seemed to like what he brought back in 2022 after getting traded there at the TDL.
Still, I have him on the outside looking in. But considering history says Stecher and Dermott are made of glass, and Emberson struggled to stay healthy last year (though he was fine in college and the AHL), I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown or Kemp pushed into service.
The analytics that compare him to his teammates show the same too. He got easy minutes and still did bad. Mostly saw bottom comp and did bad.
We are taking a#6/7 d from the worst defence in the league and throwing them on our third pairing. He’s not good. He and Dermott are similar level players. Dudes 30 he isn’t some young dude with potential.
If we are playing games with both Brown and Kemp in the lineup, Ekholm and Bouchard are going to be over worked lol
Relative Corsi -8, worst on the team
Relative Fenwick -7.1, second worse, Dermott worse
xGF Relarive -6, second worst on team, Dermott worse
This is a player while seeing the easiest minutes against the easiest comps did worse than Arizonas out of their element top4 d against much better competition.
He is a bad player, full stop.
Barrsy
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McDNicks17
Moderator
These are the exact analytics I'm talking about that lack any context.
Player A plays with Durzi while getting a big offensive zone push then plays with Brown with a big defensive zone push. Player A is obviously going to have better numbers with Durzi in the offensive zone, but relative stats tell you that none of that matters and it's all Brown's fault.
Relative stats are completely useless when comparing players with different usages and it's the reason why every one number model by Twitter analytics "experts" that's based entirely on those numbers are laughed at by actual analytics people.
Dazed and Confused
Ludicrous speed, GO!
Both in the lineup? Yeah, the team's probably in a bad spot. But any team that has three+ injuries on defence (As that would need all of Stecher, Emberson, and Dermott unavailable) is going to struggle.
But one of them next to Kulak? That's more or less identical to Kulak-Vinny.
Kulak's been the guy that has successfully stirred the drink on the 3rd pairing for the last few seasons, regardless if they're running a declining Barrie, a rookie Vinny, or Broberg on his offside next to him. So long as he's there, I'm not concerned.
Plus I think Brown is just going to be a situational play vs. physical teams, and that's a role he's fine in. If the team wants to add some consistent size to the backend to replace Vinny/Ceci, I think it'll be Kemp that gets the longest look. (who is also my dark horse for camp).
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alphahelix
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Desharnais got exclusively tough defensive minutes and PK minutes, until he was injured in the playoffs. Before we had Desharnais on the big team, we were literally losing constantly and had no effective PK, and were about to slip out of playoff contention. Woodcroft brought him up and it stabilized our entire team defence.
He gets injured in the playoffs and loses his slot for a few games and suddenly hes chopped liver. You can’t buy what Desharnais brings Defensively with a RHD. It doesn’t exist on the market, and Josh Brown, for less than half the money, is way less than half the player. He cannot be trusted against elites - Desharnais often was in a pinch. Good luck out there with your fantasy roster mister.
P.S. this isn’t to say im rooting against Josh Brown or anything, I’m deeply invested in him playing the best hockey of his career because our season kind of depends on it at this point. When it comes to right-side defenders to put out against elites.. we have nothing much. Elite teams will take advantage of every hole. If Josh Brown can take a step forward somehow at his advanced age, it would be a miracle for us. Let’s go Josh Brown. (But as another poster pointed out he was analytically the worst d-man in the NHL so it seems kinda stupid to assume he can help- this signing is likely more like the Corey Perry signing. A warm body being paid more than league min. that ultimately costs ‘Dylan Holloway types’ Their slots- we needed to pinch every penny)
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Heavy Dee
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- May 29, 2005
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He only wants 10 from the Bruins. There is really bad blood there. He would take less elsewhere.
He was a bottom pairing limited use defender on a bad team and looked bad.
Brown is a limited use bottom pairing defender who played against bottom competition and did bad at it.
Relative stats basically show who is doing their role well and who is not. Brown was doing bad at playing as a bottom pairing defender. That’s what it shows. He was a worse bottom pairing defender than a guy like Kesselring or Stetcher was a second pair guy. You can say I’m ignoring context but where is l it really any context that shows he isn’t a bad player outside of your feelings? I haven’t seen a single person who has actually watched him play in any real sample size not say he sucks.
Fixed to Ruin
Come wit it now!
McDNicks17
Moderator
Desharnais played 4% more of his ice time vs elites than Brown did last year according to PuckIQ numbers.
Vinny is a likeable guy, but he really isn't something that's hard to replace. Most successful teams have a revolving door of #6D type guys because they're dime a dozen players.
McDNicks17
Moderator
That's not what relative stats do at all.
A player in a defensive role is almost always going to have worse team metrics than guys playing in offensive situations with more talented players. One number that ignores all context of usage isn't going to tell you which player is doing a better job at their role.
LTIR
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- Nov 8, 2013
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Bad player by your standards*
Anyone who makes it to the NHL gets there for a reason. Oilers think of him as an upgrade over Desharnais and targeted him early in free agency locking him up for 3 yrs. He may not be more than a #7 at NHL level but he is far from a 'bad player' by my standards
