GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

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-DeMo-

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Nov 12, 2006
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Marner for Dobson would be a huge win for Tre but Tre could not get a Dobson for Nylander so I bet he can't get one for Marner. Marner's cap hit and ask is going to reduce his market value IMO.

I havent heard that rumour before but if true I would think Nylander would have been seen as a step below Marner prior to last season, but even if it's not, Marner is a better Fit for NYI as alot of there top 6 forwards don't have good vision and playmaking with the exception of Barzal. Lee, Horvat, Palmieri, Nelson. there more straight forward shoot first guys.

even if that rumor is true there's no telling if Tre was asking for more then Dobson for Nylander while maybe he would be willing to Marner straight up now. also once July 1st hits and NYI can negotiate a new contract with Dobson maybe there not willing to pay the asking price or Dobson isn't willing to sign long term there and that changes there Approach
 

TMLAM34

Registered User
Oct 15, 2020
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Genuine question, when have UFA's to be ever warranted that kind of return, even with an extension?


See above
You mention “UFA to be”, again if Marner isn’t willing to sign an extension there is 0% Buffalo included Cozens I agree.

If Marner is willing to sign a long term extension however, Buffalo definitely listens to a deal around Marner for Cozens. I don’t think you’re going to get much more to be honest (I’m not agreeing with his trade) but IMO you’d be pretty crazy to not trade a career 0.59 point per game player for someone in their prime that’s only 4 years old with a career 1.1 points per game.

Now how often does it happen? Definitely not often. But how often does a top two-way winger get traded also? Not often as well.

It’s funny how people get so worked up and pretend they know what the hell is going on over the internet.

I’ve mentioned before, Utah seems like the perfect trading partner for a Marner deal. They’re going to be looking to make a big splash, they have a ton of young prospects, picks and salary cap space. The owner wants to spend money, it’s a beautiful place to live and it’ll be a hot destination for UFA’s. I can see Marner actually waiving his clause to go there. Not not mention, how often do players get a chance to play in an inaugural season for an NHL team.

Wonder if Detroit could be a fit for Marner. Lots of cap space (although some key rfas to resign) not too far from Toronto if that's an issue for him..sort of 'right there' team that may be desirable enough..
I think Utah makes the best trading partner for a Marner trade but I’ve always said Detroit is a dark horse team. Not sure if Detroit does it, but something around Marner for Raymond and Edvinsson would be real solid. Edvinsson would give us a little bright spot on our bluelines future.
 
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Torontonian

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Dobson is a Norris contending #1D. Those don't get traded for soft wingers 1 year from UFA.
Dobson is elite, but this is what Toronto should be aiming for when trading a top 10 winger in the NHL. I think also any trade that trading for Marner is getting him for 9 years. It will be an extended Marner when/if he is dealt. Any one trading for Marner plans on retaining him.
Any team paying Marner what his contract demands are will be middle of the pack at best
I think you severely under rate what a player like Marner does for a franchise even being a middle of the pack team business wise, it keeps people coming to the arena and keeps them from being in the basement and not showing up. I don't know too many owners that would enjoy losing millions of dollars every year being in the basement of the standings.
 

JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
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You mention “UFA to be”, again if Marner isn’t willing to sign an extension there is 0% Buffalo included Cozens I agree.

If Marner is willing to sign a long term extension however, Buffalo definitely listens to a deal around Marner for Cozens. I don’t think you’re going to get much more to be honest (I’m not agreeing with his trade) but IMO you’d be pretty crazy to not trade a career 0.59 point per game player for someone in their prime that’s only 4 years old with a career 1.1 points per game.

Now how often does it happen? Definitely not often. But how often does a top two-way winger get traded also? Not often as well.

It’s funny how people get so worked up and pretend they know what the hell is going on over the internet.

I’ve mentioned before, Utah seems like the perfect trading partner for a Marner deal. They’re going to be looking to make a big splash, they have a ton of young prospects, picks and salary cap space. The owner wants to spend money, it’s a beautiful place to live and it’ll be a hot destination for UFA’s. I can see Marner actually waiving his clause to go there. Not not mention, how often do players get a chance to play in an inaugural season for an NHL team.


I think Utah makes the best trading partner for a Marner trade but I’ve always said Detroit is a dark horse team. Not sure if Detroit does it, but something around Marner for Raymond and Edvinsson would be real solid. Edvinsson would give us a little bright spot on our bluelines future.
Plenty of UFA's to be have signed extensions with their new teams. Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat, Karlsson... yet none of them got big name NHL players in return. All picks and prospects.

Meanwhile Huberdeau, another UFA to be quite similar to Marner, needed a top pairing D man and a 1st added to the trade just to get a high end RFA like Tkachuk.

None of these Marner trade ideas make any sense based on what's happened in the NHL these last 10 or so years.
 
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TMLAM34

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Plenty of UFA's to be have signed extensions with their new teams. Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat, Karlsson... yet none of them got big name NHL players in return. All picks and prospects.

Meanwhile Huberdeau, another UFA to be quite similar to Marner, needed a top pairing D man and a 1st added to the trade just to get a high end RFA like Tkachuk.

None of these Marner trade ideas make any sense based on what's happened in the NHL these last 10 or so years.
None of Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat or Karlsson are nearly as good as Marner and we all know an all-star power forward will cost you through the roof as they’re nearly untouchable.

The only power forward that I’ve seen thrown around in trade proposals is Crouse who is nowhere near Tkachuk level.

I’m not disagreeing when you say some of the trade proposals thrown around here are wishful thinking. But I do disagree when you say Marner won’t fetch a good return.

My ideal return for Marner would be: (people can disagree, laugh, comment it’s unrealistic, etc)

To Toronto: Lawson Crouse + Conor Geekie + WSH 2nd Rounder
To Utah: Mitch Marner (extended)
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Plenty of UFA's to be have signed extensions with their new teams. Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat, Karlsson... yet none of them got big name NHL players in return. All picks and prospects.

Meanwhile Huberdeau, another UFA to be quite similar to Marner, needed a top pairing D man and a 1st added to the trade just to get a high end RFA like Tkachuk.

None of these Marner trade ideas make any sense based on what's happened in the NHL these last 10 or so years.
Marner extended should get you close to the Eichel return IMO. More if the Leafs retain and pay his bonus on July 1st.

 

TMLAM34

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Oct 15, 2020
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Marner extended should get you close to the Eichel return IMO. More if the Leafs retain and pay his bonus on July 1st.

That’s basically the framework I worked with when I suggested Marner for Crouse (Tuch), Geekie (Krebs, at the time) and a 2nd rounder instead of a 1st and a 2nd.
 
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notdoneyet

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Jun 19, 2006
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Another idea I've had is the following...

To St.Louis
Mitch Marner
Timothy Liljegren
Prospect

To Toronto
Colton Parayko
Pavel Buchnevich

Sign Sean Mohahan 4 x 4.5 million
Sign Tyler Bertuzzi 5 x 5.5 million
Sign Matt Roy 5 x 6 million
Sign David Perron 2 x 2 million
Sign Nick Robertson 2 x 1.5 million
Sign Connor Dewar 2 x 1.25 million
Sign Laurent Brossoit 3 x 3 million
Trade Calle Jarnkrok for futures

Bertuzzi / Matthews / Buchnevich
Knies / Monahan / Nylander
Robertson / Tavares / Perron
McMann / Holmberg / Dewar
Grebenkin

Rielly / Parayko
McCabe / Roy
Benoit /Timmins

Brossoit
Woll
We get older slower and way less skillful
Monaghan old slow injury prone
Perron old and slow
Buchnevich meh
 
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Avilaj07

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Feb 6, 2016
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Fun to talk about but marner nmc is not want to go to Buffalo would you .
I wouldn't be 100% so sure. He's not too far from home which might mean a lot to him considering he just got married not too long ago. Plus, Buffalo has a very promising team. He'll have a lot less pressure then playing in the Toronto market as well.
 

JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
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None of Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat or Karlsson are nearly as good as Marner and we all know an all-star power forward will cost you through the roof as they’re nearly untouchable.

The only power forward that I’ve seen thrown around in trade proposals is Crouse who is nowhere near Tkachuk level.

I’m not disagreeing when you say some of the trade proposals thrown around here are wishful thinking. But I do disagree when you say Marner won’t fetch a good return.

My ideal return for Marner would be: (people can disagree, laugh, comment it’s unrealistic, etc)

To Toronto: Lawson Crouse + Conor Geekie + WSH 2nd Rounder
To Utah: Mitch Marner (extended)
At the time of the trade I'd take Stone quite easily over present day Marner. The dude is a leader and built for playoff hockey. I agree about the other 2 forwards though.

That's probably still on the high end of an ask but it's not terrible like some of the others. I just don't see a high end prospect and a good roster player being a part of a package together. I think itll be one or the other with a late 1st and mid prospect type add, like most other UFA to be trades.
Marner extended should get you close to the Eichel return IMO. More if the Leafs retain and pay his bonus on July 1st.

Eichel was also a center on top of being of RFA age (with a nice long term contract at a fair cap hit).

Teams aren't going to be lining up to pay a winger $11+m AND give up quality roster pieces to do it
 
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Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Teams aren't going to be lining up to pay a winger $11+m AND give up quality roster pieces to do it

Which is why most of my proposals, involve non-roster players, picks, or more depth guys... it doesn't take away from their roster too badly.

Marner, Kampf, Jarnkrok to Utah for Crouse, McBain, 1st.
Marner to Seattle for Wright, 1st.
 
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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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At the time of the trade I'd take Stone quite easily over present day Marner. The dude is a leader and built for playoff hockey. I agree about the other 2 forwards though.

That's probably still on the high end of an ask but it's not terrible like some of the others. I just don't see a high end prospect and a good roster player being a part of a package together. I think itll be one or the other with a late 1st and mid prospect type add, like most other UFA to be trades.

Eichel was also a center on top of being of RFA age (with a nice long term contract at a fair cap hit).

Teams aren't going to be lining up to pay a winger $11+m AND give up quality roster pieces to do it
Eichel also had neck issue to deal with and you are getting Marner virtually for free, dollar wise. I do agree it will be hard to get full market value for Marner unless you can find a desperate GM.
 

Torontonian

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Jun 24, 2013
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Plenty of UFA's to be have signed extensions with their new teams. Stone, Pacioretty, Horvat, Karlsson... yet none of them got big name NHL players in return. All picks and prospects.

Meanwhile Huberdeau, another UFA to be quite similar to Marner, needed a top pairing D man and a 1st added to the trade just to get a high end RFA like Tkachuk.

None of these Marner trade ideas make any sense based on what's happened in the NHL these last 10 or so years.
To be fair, different circumstances for each team, Stone/Karlsson traded for picks prospects because they were rebuilding. When MTL traded Patches, they got a top quality prospects in Suzuki (13th overall) and a top 6 forward in Tatar at the time and 2nd round pick, not sexy names but a good haul.

Toronto isn't in the stage of needing picks and prospects, but I can assure you, if they went down that road for Marner, they would be getting one or two high end prospects and a 1st round pick assuming the team trading for Marner is extending him.

Debrincatt went for the 7th pick + 2nd + 3rd
Romanov went for 13th pick and then used 13th and 66th to get Dach.
Lindholm went for 1st + 2 2nd round picks + prospects (who later signed 8 x 6.5m)
Tkchuck went for Top 6 forward + Top 4 dman + 1st (who later signed extension)
Chychryun went for 1st + 2nd + 2nd
Timo Meier went for Shakir Mukhamadullin (20th pick) + 2023 1st + 2024 2nd.
Eichel went for Tuch + Krebs + 1st + 2nd
Dubois went for Viladri (11th in 2017) + Iafallo + Kupari (20th pick in 2018) + 2nd.. So top 6F top 9F and 2nd
 
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JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
7,215
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Winnipeg
Eichel also had neck issue to deal with and you are getting Marner virtually for free, dollar wise. I do agree it will be hard to get full market value for Marner unless you can find a desperate GM.
A counter point to Eichel's neck issues are Marner's playoff issues. Even without hindsight I think you'd be more likely to get healthy Eichel in the playoffs than you are to get regular season Marner in the playoffs.
Which is why most of my proposals, involve non-roster players, picks, or more depth guys... it doesn't take away from their roster too badly.

Marner, Kampf, Jarnkrok to Utah for Crouse, McBain, 1st.
Marner to Seattle for Wright, 1st.

Assuming you mean those teams' top firsts this year, I can't see that ever happening.

Wright wouldn't be a bad target but I wouldn't expect much of a plus
 

Fogelhund

Registered User
Sep 15, 2007
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A counter point to Eichel's neck issues are Marner's playoff issues. Even without hindsight I think you'd be more likely to get healthy Eichel in the playoffs than you are to get regular season Marner in the playoffs.


Assuming you mean those teams' top firsts this year, I can't see that ever happening.

Wright wouldn't be a bad target but I wouldn't expect much of a plus
You honestly don't think, that a top winger in the game, isn't worth a top first this year? Strange. A 6th or 8th OA?
 
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JKG33

Leafs & Kings
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To be fair, different circumstances for each team, Stone/Karlsson traded for picks prospects because they were rebuilding. When MTL traded Patches, they got a top quality prospects in Suzuki (13th overall) and a top 6 forward in Tatar at the time and 2nd round pick, not sexy names but a good haul.

Toronto isn't in the stage of needing picks and prospects, but I can assure you, if they went down that road for Marner, they would be getting one or two high end prospects and a 1st round pick assuming the team trading for Marner is extending him.

Debrincatt went for the 7th pick + 2nd + 3rd
Romanov went for 13th pick and then used 13th and 66th to get Dach.
Lindholm went for 1st + 2 2nd round picks + prospects (who later signed 8 x 6.5m)
Tkchuck went for Top 6 forward + Top 4 dman + 1st (who later signed extension)
Chychryun went for 1st + 2nd + 2nd
Timo Meier went for Shakir Mukhamadullin (20th pick) + 2023 1st + 2024 2nd.
Eichel went for Tuch + Krebs + 1st + 2nd
Dubois went for Viladri (11th in 2017) + Iafallo + Kupari (20th pick in 2018) + 2nd.. So top 6F top 9F and 2nd
All of those players you listed expect Lindholm were RFAs and nor comparable situations at all. The Tkachuk one is especially funny because Marner would be the Huberdeau in a trade like that, not the Tkachuk.

But I do agree that a Stone or Pacioretty type return is exactly what the expectation should be. A mid/late 1st and a good prospect as the base. Same with the Lindholm trade too (both of them)

You honestly don't think, that a top winger in the game, isn't worth a top first this year? Strange.
I don't think a winger 1 year from UFA (extended or not) holds that kind of value, no. This close to the draft especially, those high picks are insanely valuable around the league.

The most realistic scenario to get an early 1st is to get a 2025 unprotected and hope that team sucks like what happened with the Karlsson and Duchene trades. And if that team is spending a lot of their cap on Marner and expecting him to lead them, that's a very realistic scenario indeed
 

Shanwhatplan

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Mar 31, 2019
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All I am saying is that they had a plan and that plan was based on the cap increasing like it had every other year.

I am not saying it was a good plan, I am saying we don't really know how that plan played out, because it never did.

Would this team look different if they kept Hyman and added a D and G? A rising cap would have allowed for that.
To me, it was the perfect storm for this team. First Shanahan was hired to try and turn the franchise around, then he ended up hiring Dubas, who then later hired Keefe. All three of them started their new positions within the Leafs organization without ever having had done this type of thing before. And this certainly showed with how those contract negotiations went!
All I am saying is that they had a plan and that plan was based on the cap increasing like it had every other year.

I am not saying it was a good plan, I am saying we don't really know how that plan played out, because it never did.

Would this team look different if they kept Hyman and added a D and G? A rising cap would have allowed for that.
Dubas and Shanahan handcuffed the team when they gave into Matthews' and Marner's contract demands. In February of 2019, Matthews had just inked a US$58.17 million five year contract extension worth an average annual salary of $11.634 million, the largest contract ever given to a rookie coming off of his ELC. Marner's agent, Ferris, told Dubas that Marner was going to finish the season before signing any new contract. Dubas then stated publicly that they would be okay with that because, "When they're ready to sit down, we'll talk. He's going to be a Toronto Maple Leaf for a long time, regardless of HOW we have to come to that." I do not blame M&M for their contracts, that is all on Dubas and Shanahan.

Yes the pandemic threw a monkey wrench into their plans of giving these 4 forwards all that money thinking they would still have enough to make improvements in the other areas, but I don't believe this would have made a difference. As I have previously said, no other team have put that much of their cap into 4 forwards, while still being able to build a strong defense core along with good to solid goaltending.

The way I see it is management put these 3 core players on a pedestal, thus creating the "entitlement" that, Matthews and Marner in particular, have surrounded them all this time. I am looking forward to the new culture that Tre and Berube want to establish where it's all about the "team", rather than the core and everybody else. When every player feels they are making a contribution to the team, then having a team culture naturally follows. Also, when any player is not performing up to the coach's standards and gets benched or healthy scratched, that also goes a long way to all the players buying in. Whereas when the star players are never held accountable while the other players are, that has to create a division amongst the players.
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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Seravelli summed it up pretty good this morning on the morning show. If you think Marner is being scapegoated and will not waive, give a listen.
 
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