GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[TMLAM34]

Honestly, at this moment, I just don't get a sense that either sides want to deal with each other.
It is very different than what happened to Willie last summer, as it seemed like both sides want to get a deal done but just can't agree on price.

Where as with MM, it seems like even MM doesn't want to deal with the Leafs.

There’s definitely a different tone, especially in Treliving when he’s asked about Marner. When he was asked about Matthews and Nylander, his answer from day one was that they’re both a priority to re-sign. When he’s asked about Marner, he mentions he’s a really good player but everything is on the table.

 

[Brobust]

There’s definitely a different tone, especially in Treliving when he’s asked about Marner. When he was asked about Matthews and Nylander, his answer from day one was that they’re both a priority to re-sign. When he’s asked about Marner, he mentions he’s a really good player but everything is on the table.

Apparently they did look around for deals on Nylander last offseason and decided to sign him because they didn't like anything.

There is some potential of that happening again.

 

[Gabriel426]

Apparently they did look around for deals on Nylander last offseason and decided to sign him because they didn't like anything.

There is some potential of that happening again.

But would MM wants to resign with the Leafs?

I think with Willie, it was more like, lets see what we can get out there before working on a deal.
With MM, it is more like, lets put him on the market and look at the best offer than if the offers are all crap, wait and see what Berube can do then decide.

 

[Kiwi]

He should have been a Leaf. That was such a stupid trade by Dubas.

Don't blame Dubas for that

That was the regime before him royally ******* up and leaving him a gigantic turd to deal with

That contract was pure stupidity the day it was signed

 

[rumman]

Apparently they did look around for deals on Nylander last offseason and decided to sign him because they didn't like anything.

There is some potential of that happening again.

typical Leafs, can't get a fair return for a player so they sign him to a ridiculous contract that no other team would come close to matching, I mean talk about self sabotage.............

 

[Evilhomer]

Kinda resembles the rumoured deal with Vegas for Theo and Wild Bill. money has to work. I prfer Dobson but Lou would have to really want Mitch to let him go. Lou probably wants nothing to do with him and his dad from his days here.

I think people are underestimating how valuable other teams see a mid-20s 90+ point player. There will be a big market for him so long as teams can make the salary work, and Marner wants to leave. The Islanders need offense, so a deal between these two teams makes sense.

 

[ACC1224]

There’s definitely a different tone, especially in Treliving when he’s asked about Marner. When he was asked about Matthews and Nylander, his answer from day one was that they’re both a priority to re-sign. When he’s asked about Marner, he mentions he’s a really good player but everything is on the table.

It's just talk based on the mood of the fanbase. Last year they won a round, the fanbase was thinking that maybe they had gotten over that hurdle, the GM was new naturally he would have positive comments to make.
This year the environment is toxic, so his comments will be inline with that. It does really mean much.

 

[The Masters]

pagnotta

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800597594831278518

 

[ToneDog]

Don't blame Dubas for that

That was the regime before him royally ******* up and leaving him a gigantic turd to deal with

That contract was pure stupidity the day it was signed

Dubas turned it into a turd by overpaying 4 forwards knowing well in advance that the 3rd year of the Marleau deal was staring at him in the face. Lou may have handed Dubas a grenade but Dubas did not have to pull the pin and have it detonate in his face.

 

[Zero1]

I don't understand why MM won't waive?

Like it seems pretty clear that the MGT won't extend him and he is not part of the future. Now that can change if he stays in his final year and just dominate in the playoffs, but what is the chance of that happening?

IF he wants the 100mil new contract, he just can't get it with the Leafs. Bc I think deep down, Leafs won't commit to another 11mil plus contract till McD extends with the Oilers in the Jul 1, 2025. All teams esp the Leafs will be hoping he doesn't sign. Although, i don't think it will happen but it is a lot easier to trade two 5-6mil players than one 11mil plus player. Thats why I don't think Leafs would commit to another 11mil plus player.

I don’t get it either. I would think he wouldn’t want to be where he’s not wanted but who knows with his camp.

I think we’ll know as soon as this off-season if he’s staying an Oiler or not. If Leon doesn’t sign that extension then I don’t see McDavid staying.

 

[TMLAM34]

pagnotta

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800597594831278518

Ferraro would be a really good pickup. Not sure what it would take, probably something like our 1st, Liljegren + .

 

[Torontonian]

All of those players you listed expect Lindholm were RFAs and nor comparable situations at all. The Tkachuk one is especially funny because Marner would be the Huberdeau in a trade like that, not the Tkachuk.

But I do agree that a Stone or Pacioretty type return is exactly what the expectation should be. A mid/late 1st and a good prospect as the base. Same with the Lindholm trade too (both of them)


I don't think a winger 1 year from UFA (extended or not) holds that kind of value, no. This close to the draft especially, those high picks are insanely valuable around the league.

The most realistic scenario to get an early 1st is to get a 2025 unprotected and hope that team sucks like what happened with the Karlsson and Duchene trades. And if that team is spending a lot of their cap on Marner and expecting him to lead them, that's a very realistic scenario indeed

But you understand, RFA's can walk themselves to UFA right? So while the team has control of the player, the player can still force himself to free agency.

I think you severely underrate an extended Marner, multiple insiders have said if he's up for trade, majority of the league will be in on him. PPG wingers that are solid in there own end aren't available everyday, and while yes he forces Toronto hand on where he can go, I don't think the interested team would be willing to risk not getting him by offering a dogshit return, and having 31 other teams talking to him in FA.

 

[JKG33]

But you understand, RFA's can walk themselves to UFA right? So while the team has control of the player, the player can still force himself to free agency.

I think you severely underrate an extended Marner, multiple insiders have said if he's up for trade, majority of the league will be in on him. PPG wingers that are solid in there own end aren't available everyday, and while yes he forces Toronto hand on where he can go, I don't think the interested team would be willing to risk not getting him by offering a dogshit return, and having 31 other teams talking to him in FA.

I do yes, but I'm just looking at the data which tells a different story. Pending RFAs usually get good returns in trade. Pending UFAs usually get some kind of mid 1st/prospect package.

Marner falls in the UFA category. There's no precedent for the kind of insane haul an RFA might warrant. And players better than Marner have been traded and extended as upcoming UFAs

 

[Torontonian]

Everything is based on speculation.
There is no reason to believe that anything has changed with Marner and he wants to be a life long Leaf.
With a reasonable deal, the team would want that as well.

I would think if Marner looked at Toronto and said he would extend for 10m x 8 years Toronto would lock him up.

In saying that, if the team is looking at him and has told him we don't want you anymore, and the fans have the same sentiment (50/50 maybe?), and Marner decides he still doesn't want to be traded, it's going to be a tough year on him and a real shit show come training camp.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I feel like the Marner situation has ties to our goaltending.

We'll likely spend a lot on defense as we have 3 NHL guys under contract: Rielly, McCabe, Benoit. I'm not counting Timmins and Weber as they are not going to be in the top 6.

If we end up running Mitch back, we'll likely need to take another swing at a Samsonov-like goalie.

 

[ACC1224]

I would think if Marner looked at Toronto and said he would extend for 10m x 8 years Toronto would lock him up.

In saying that, if the team is looking at him and has told him we don't want you anymore, and the fans have the same sentiment (50/50 maybe?), and Marner decides he still doesn't want to be traded, it's going to be a tough year on him and a real shit show come training camp.

I don't believe the team will announce their intentions and make things toxic for everyone.
If he and the Team plays well there is no reason why most fans won't get behind them.

 

[TMLAM34]

I don't believe the team will announce their intentions and make things toxic for everyone.
If he and the Team plays well there is no reason why most fans won't get behind them.

The regular season means absolutely nothing at this point. Marner is going to have to wait until the playoffs and be the best player on the ice on the regular bringing this team deep to change the fans perspective on him at this point. Not sure either team or player want to wait until then to be honest, that’s a very toxic environment for a majority of the season.

 

[ACC1224]

The regular season means absolutely nothing at this point. Marner is going to have to wait until the playoffs and be the best player on the ice on the regular bringing this team deep to change the fans perspective on him at this point. Not sure either team or player want to wait until then to be honest, that’s a very toxic environment for a majority of the season.

I don't think that's the case for the majority of the fanbase. 82 games is a long time to be disinterested waiting to blame one for all the Teams failures.

 

[horner]

I don't disagree with your recollection of how things went and I think Dubas overpaid Matthews and Marner and that this did handcuff us. We agree on that.

What we don't know is how this would have played out of the cap kept rising. Would others signing big contracts not have made these look so bad? Would we have had more playoff success of we had $10M to $20M more to spend per season? These are different issues and I think you can say the Leads got screwed by Covid more than any other team AND that Dubas/Shanny did a poor job on these contracts.

It seems like some people here refuse to acknowledge the impact Covid had on us because it would be seen as letting Dubas off a hook of some sort.

Let me put it to you (and anyone else) this way. Can you name a team that got more impacted by Covid? Consider

• The recency of big deals signed to key pieces
• The impact on budget/cap constraints for a team that would spend to the cap every year and not some internal budget that is less than the cap
• The window and trajectory as a contender
• The border and Covid travel concerns
• The impact of empty buildings on revenue

Again, you can agree that we got hit harder by Covid than everyone other team without making that some defense for Dubas.

The problem is dubas jumped the rebuild we weren't finished. The JT money should have went to defence. .
JT wasnt the kind of leader we needed neither was Marleau.
Managent never let those young players grow into leaders .
Now this is what we are left with

 

[4thline]

If we're bringing in a young guy I'd like to give him some offensively talented players to play with

So goodbye Jarnkrok hello Grebyonkin or Cowan, I'd also like to get rid of Kampf and add someone more offensively talented like Domi and/or Roslovic

Knies Matthews Nylander
McMann Tavares Marner
Robertson Roslovic Domi

That's pretty good, you have Cowan and Grebyonkin fighting for spots and you still have enough money to add elsewhere

My main purpose was to pencil in RFA's/ returning players and see how it lines up, what's left of UFA hunting. Call it 2.3 for a Brossoit/Stolarz type and roll the dice on Woll. 7m for one dman, 5m for the other.

Once you get into changing guys out, or slotting people up it get's interesting. Say we give Lilly one last shot with McCabe in sustained run to start the year, bring in a Desharnais or a Hakanpaa with Benoit on the bottom pair. Call that 4.5 combined on RD2 and RD3 instead of 7. Trade Kampf and Jarncrok- that's 4.6. 4.6 + 2.5 = 7.1

Robertson- xxx-xxx
Dewar-Holmberg-Grebyonkin

7.1 for the xxx's.
If we don't believe in Robertson trade him too, 8.6 for a completely new 3rd line, setting the tone for a young scrappy 2way 4thline to follow.

 

[TMLAM34]

I don't think that's the case for the majority of the fanbase. 82 games is a long time to be disinterested waiting to blame one for all the Teams failures.

Who said anything about people being disinterested? We’re all still going to watch every game, but we all know whatever Marner does in the regular season means f*** all because he needs to preform in the playoffs.

 

[ACC1224]

Who said anything about people being disinterested? We’re all still going to watch every game, but we all know whatever Marner does in the regular season means f*** all because he needs to preform in the playoffs.

They all do.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

pagnotta

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800597594831278518

Kunin sucks.

I feel like the Marner situation has ties to our goaltending.

We'll likely spend a lot on defense as we have 3 NHL guys under contract: Rielly, McCabe, Benoit. I'm not counting Timmins and Weber as they are not going to be in the top 6.

If we end up running Mitch back, we'll likely need to take another swing at a Samsonov-like goalie.

That alone is enough to warrant trading him.

 

[TMLAM34]

They all do.

Even though that’s true, the fan base will not turn on Matthews. Nylander has debatably been our best playoff forward for the past two runs while getting better each year and JT’s contract is up. So that leaves Marner again being the whipping boy and taking a majority of the heat/blame.

 

[ACC1224]

Even though that’s true, the fan base will not turn on Matthews. Nylander has debatably been our best playoff forward for the past two runs while getting better each year and JT’s contract is up. So that leaves Marner again being the whipping boy and taking a majority of the heat/blame.

Yep that’s unfortunately the case.