Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Rare Jewel]

I think JT takes a significant discount on his current deal which will help. The difference last time around is that the cap was flat due to covid. With inflation those deals should look more palatable after they are signed.

And for clarification, when I said this far, I meant the organization has gone with this formula for so many years under a flat cap, so it only makes sense to see what it looks like in a normal financial environment. Obviously the results in the playoffs have been horrendous to this point.

Even prior to covid it wasn't a sound idea.

We're also not taking into account the extensions of Knies, Liljegren, or Woll.

What can’t he improve on at 28?

I don't know, they've just tried at center recently in pre-season and it didn't even last week.

I think for him, a position change is probably not likely.

 

[Scion]

Even prior to covid it wasn't a sound idea.

We're also not taking into account the extensions of Knies, Liljegren, or Woll.


I don't know, they've just tried at center recently in pre-season and it didn't even last week.

I think for him, a position change is probably not likely.

It was a mistake not to use the hammer when the three of them were RFA's, but there is no question things would have turned out differently if the cap rose normally year over year. If nothing else it would have forced other teams to sign their players to similar deals. Instead it forced players to sign cheaper deals which put the Leafs at an even greater disadvantage.

 

[Buds17]

Tre isn't in a bad position

The Forward group and goaltending isn't in a bad spot and we do have some decent building blocks on the backend in Rielly and Liljegren

You can make that work if you're smart with your assets and cap allocation

Just as an aside, what are peoples thoughts on Domi? He's starting to really grow on me and I like what he and Robertson have going right now offensively on that 3rd line

I think he's performing a bit above his role and ice-time (third liner) presently. Don't know that I'd definitely be discussing a new contract with him just yet though.

 

[arso40]

Even prior to covid it wasn't a sound idea.

We're also not taking into account the extensions of Knies, Liljegren, or Woll.


I don't know, they've just tried at center recently in pre-season and it didn't even last week.

I think for him, a position change is probably not likely.

They weren’t serious about it seems like they wanted to take an early look at it for the future he can play there he won’t be as effective right away but if he’s proven anything is that he’s going to improve his weaknesses so I’m all for it allows money to get allocated else where

 

[Americanadian]

The team has come this far with the core and a flat cap

1 win past the 1st round in 5 seasons with all 4?

 

[Rare Jewel]

1 win past the 1st round in 5 seasons with all 4?

I thought that as well, but they mean closer to Tavares' contract expiry.

But by then, Marner will also need a new contract, and a similar issue will still persist.

 

[Kiwi]

He's been the best of the bigger Tre signings, partly by play and partly by default. Similar to Kerfoot, his best position likely isn't at center, so I do feel they could improve there. but he's making a go of it, and overall, he's been decent.

Robertson is another thing; he has some skill, but I think he remains the best trade chip to improve elsewhere, whether it is a C or a D.

I don't know man. Robertson has played 23 games and he has 5 goals, 11 points and he's 22 until September

After all the injuries he's just scratching the surface of what he's capable of

 

[Rare Jewel]

I don't know man. Robertson has played 23 games and he has 5 goals, 11 points and he's 22 until September

After all the injuries he's just scratching the surface of what he's capable of

I'm aware, and while I don't want to deconstruct his game, there are some shortcomings in his game that make him tradable to me.

As well as you likely need to give up something of value to get something in return. Defencemen around the same age as him aren't cheap.

 

[TMLAM34]

Marner will be interesting this off-season the more I think about it. He will be eligible for an extension. He will be owed 775k after his bonus is paid out (assuming it is July 1, 2024). If Treliving tells him that he will not be getting a raise and it may be best for him to find a contract elsewhere he might be open to sign and trade similar to Tkachuk. Any team that acquires him after July 1 would be able to immediately extend him assuming they are willing to pay him the money he wants. I'd be looking at Arizona, they could afford him next year and going forward. They could use a top 6 NHL RW (they currently have Crouse and Schmaltz playing top 6 RW with Kerfoot at 1C). Next year will be the last year on their lease at Mullet arena, and most likely their last year of suppressed revenues - they'd actually save money by bringing Marner at 775k real cash and trading out players with actual salary owed.

I'd be looking at a deal around Crouse+Hayton or McBain. Leafs get a top 6LW in the mold that they are looking for and a serviceable 3C. I could also see a prospect exhcange involved where Doan brings in his son. They save 5M on the cap in the process which they can use along with the 4.15M from Klingberg to go after a free agent D.

This is all assuming Marner is willing to go to Arizona. If Treliving makes it clear that he will not get a bloated contract to stay in Toronto hopefully he will be open to moving.

I may have a few drinks in me right now but I’m pretty confident to say there is zero percent chance he waives and then extends in Arizona.

Happy new year everyone!

 

[Kiwi]

I'm aware, and while I don't want to deconstruct his game, there are some shortcomings in his game that make him tradable to me.

As well as you likely need to give up something of value to get something in return. Defencemen around the same age as him aren't cheap.

He's 22, it's hardly surprising he isn't a finished product yet but he's developing

He's already shown an ability to chip in offensively in limited minutes

Unless he develops into something he's not going to be worth much on the trade market, at the moment he's a chuck in on a bigger deal

That's selling low to me

 

[Scion]

1 win past the 1st round in 5 seasons with all 4?

Read above, that's not what that comment was referring to. The Leafs playoff record is a joke and I've been as critical of it as anyone.

 

[Scion]

I'm aware, and while I don't want to deconstruct his game, there are some shortcomings in his game that make him tradable to me.

As well as you likely need to give up something of value to get something in return. Defencemen around the same age as him aren't cheap.

I have the same opinion, but hopefully he proves us wrong.

 

[leafsfan5]

I'd conserve assets and wait till the offseason when the following UFA D could be in play: Pesce, Hanifin, Montour, Forsling, Tanev, Dumba, and Skej.

Man if Florida doesn't sign Forsling I hope we are all over it, he would be great as a 2LD here. Mobile with a very solid defensive game

Rielly
Forsling
McCabe

That's a good left side longterm

 

[Gabriel426]

I don't know man. Robertson has played 23 games and he has 5 goals, 11 points and he's 22 until September

After all the injuries he's just scratching the surface of what he's capable of

I think you just made the case that Nicky Robbie is the best trade trip bc other GMs and Scouts will also think that he got untapped potential and can win big in a trade.

 

[Kiwi]

I think you just made the case that Nicky Robbie is the best trade trip bc other GMs and Scouts will also think that he got untapped potential and can win big in a trade.

He hasn't done it yet, a GM will take a punt on talent but he's also not going to overpay for an unproven talent

There going to see him as a throw in currently

 

[TMLAM34]

Aside from exploring a Marner trade, I think you have to sit Tavares down and really see if he’s willing to potentially waive to a destination he wants and explore that route. Nothing better than wanting big changes and starting with the captain.

 

[ULF_55]

Sell what, exactly? AM, MM and JT...ntc. Willie? UFA that won't get us even close to a reasonable return for just that reason. The rest? Cannon fodder essentially that also won't move the needle substantially in trade. I subscribe to the "sink or swim" with what we got this season. No picks dealt off...no selling the farm. Now, the offseason? We evaluate what we have and give this GM a free hand to mould this team properly...with a new coach. Which is what we really need. Shanny can hit the bricks too.

Last year:
The Boston Bruins have acquired winger Tyler Bertuzzi from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 2024 protected first-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick. As part of the deal, the Red Wings will retain 50 percent of Bertuzzi's salary.Mar 2, 2023

Domi, along with minor league goaltender Dylan Wells, went to the Stars in exchange for goalie Anton Khudobin and a 2025 second-round pick.

For an unsigned Nylander:
Nylander >> Kane (2023)
New York Rangers get: F Patrick Kane (50 percent retained), D Cooper Zech
Chicago Blackhawks get: D Vili Saarijarvi, D Andy Welinski, 2023 second-round pick (conditional), 2025 fourth-round pick
Arizona Coyotes get: 2025 third-round pick (from Ranger

or

Maple Leafs acquire Ryan O’Reilly from Blues​

Toronto Maple Leafs get: F Ryan O’Reilly (75 percent retained), F Noel Acciari, F Josh Pillar
St. Louis Blues get: F Adam Gaudette, F Mikhail Abramov, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 third-round pick, 2024 second-round pick
Minnesota Wild get: 2025 fourth-round pick

 

[ULF_55]

xGA/60 does a fairly good job of showing who is limiting scoring chances against, but sometimes that is a result of great offense, forechecking or puck possession which we don't typically associate with defense. That is where microstats, usage and deployment come into play, which is only really possible with video analysis. I don't begrudge anyone for not doing the latter though because most people don't have access to instat and sportlogiq so it makes sense to use the information available to you.

How valuable is xGA if your goaltender is the worst in the league, unless every puck directed toward the net is an expected goal, in which case your goaltender is not part of the evaluation, as in goalie or empty net the calculation is the same.

 

[Knies iT]

If you zoom out and look at our situation - a .500 club, inability to win games clean in regulation, starting goalie waived, promising back-up injured long-term, worst D core in 5+ years, porous team defense and at least 3x major holes (2x top 4D, 3C/LW, starting G).

I’ve been wanting a retool since the series loss to Tampa. There was no contingency plan in place for Muzz/TJ aging out. We are not going to magically get better with the minor tinkering. I’d like to see us take 1 step back, 2 forward, but it’ll require a 2-year patient approach in an underdog role.

I don’t doubt that this team makes the playoffs. I also don’t think our management has the balls to sell. But tbh, we should not trade for any rentals (unless verbal extension in place), retain our 1st, and aggressively rebuild the D by only targeting younger prime aged defenders. I’d personally take it one step further and explore capitalizing on decently valuable rentals like Bertuzzi to address the D moving forward.

I’m talking trade for a #3D, sign an additional #4/5D in free agency, and even draft a D in the 1st round (ideally that’s the BPA). That’s the kind of significant facelift the blue line needs.

 

[ULF_55]

In the summer I can see but Byram is made of glass 127 gms in 4 seasons
2 concussions already.

I don't think this can be said enough.

Leafs would be taking a huge risk, and they've been burned on taking those risks before.

Sure, maybe Byram has untapped upside ... Timmins apparently does too.

Why then not deal in risk for risk.

Byram for Robertson + minimum games played add. Throw in prospect(s).

Colorado has their own Cap issues brewing.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Matty Beniers + Will Borgen
To Seattle: Mitch Marner

Start the shakeup/culture change.

 

[ULF_55]

Even prior to covid it wasn't a sound idea.

We're also not taking into account the extensions of Knies, Liljegren, or Woll.


I don't know, they've just tried at center recently in pre-season and it didn't even last week.

I think for him, a position change is probably not likely.

Not sure.

How do you have Matthews and Tavares and not play both a center.
Are they going to put their leading scorer on the third line?

If there was no Tavares, I'd speculate the efforts to put Nylander back to his draft position would be greater.

The thing with Nylander is he drives the line offensively, so you probably don't need a center who drives the line, but handles the larger defensive role.

Example, if we were to rate these three defensively, how would it look?
Matthews, marner or Tavares?
I read marner is a Selke candidate, I read Matthews is a Selke candidate, I don't read Tavares is.

Would Nylander look better at center with a Selke candidate on his wing?

 

[ULF_55]

If you zoom out and look at our situation - a .500 club, inability to win games clean in regulation, starting goalie waived, promising back-up injured long-term, worst D core in 5+ years, porous team defense and at least 3x major holes (2x top 4D, 3C/LW, starting G).

I’ve been wanting a retool since the series loss to Tampa. There was no contingency plan in place for Muzz/TJ aging out. We are not going to magically get better with the minor tinkering. I’d like to see us take 1 step back, 2 forward, but it’ll require a 2-year patient approach in an underdog role.

I don’t doubt that this team makes the playoffs. I also don’t think our management has the balls to sell. But tbh, we should not trade for any rentals (unless verbal extension in place), retain our 1st, and aggressively rebuild the D by only targeting younger prime aged defenders. I’d personally take it one step further and explore capitalizing on decently valuable rentals like Bertuzzi to address the D moving forward.

I’m talking trade for a #3D, sign an additional #4/5D in free agency, and even draft a D in the 1st round (ideally that’s the BPA). That’s the kind of significant facelift the blue line needs.

If the Club is finished, as it is currently structured, you can't stand pat.

Not sure I'd waste the rest of the year without giving their prospects some baptism.

If the team has no chance, move out players and see where the prospects are.
McCabe and Brodie have M-NTC, move them.

Of course, no one at MLSE thinks they have no chance to earn playoffs revenue.

 

[rumman]

To Toronto: Matty Beniers + Will Borgen
To Seattle: Mitch Marner

Start the shakeup/culture change.

Borgen is a guy I really like. He’s a young, solid Dan with bite. Just what the doctor ordered……..

 

[Scion]

Aside from exploring a Marner trade, I think you have to sit Tavares down and really see if he’s willing to potentially waive to a destination he wants and explore that route. Nothing better than wanting big changes and starting with the captain.

f*** that... He is still an elite 2C and will probably sign for a massive discount to retire a Leaf. Not to mention that he is one of the best pros I've ever been around. You keep guys like that around.