Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[Morgs]

I mean, sure......this is technically doable. But I look at that and think that the Leafs will be hard pressed to repeat these past couple of seasons, let alone come playoffs time.

I hope people can understand that $5 million for an entire bottom 6 means that those lines will be caved in, and the D doesn't have any real support should Gio start to age out and/or Timmins injury woes pop back up.

Dubas found Kampf and Bunting for barely over the minimum 2 years ago. He grabbed NAK and ZAR this past season for basically the same (and NAK has been better with Washington). Guys like Holmberg, Anderson, McMann, Abruzzese, SDA, etc should all be ready to take on NHL roles (or larger roles) at league minimum coupled with hopefully another Kampf-type signing to round out the 3C with the extra money left over (Jordan Staal?). Not to mention Knies is all but guaranteed a spot and we might be able to get Engvall to lower his money after a "down" season.

 

[Gallagbi]

If the Islanders can re-sign Horvat, not sure how anyone can argue that trade. Pretty reasonable price for the Islanders. It’s almost the equivalent of us moving Kerfoot, Robertson, a 1st and maybe a 2nd given we’re higher in the standings than the Islanders for a top six center.

Direction is the big question. They're a team without much young talent upfront currently outside the playoffs, looking at 4 straight years without a first.

So if this is them sliding down the hill have they just pushed back am inevitable rebuild?

 

[ACC1224]

Freidman says Meier is on Toronto's radar, Johnston says he is not.

Thanks.....I could have told you that.

 

[bax]

What does it say? Image is cut off

Two tweets from Friedman and Johnston contradicting each other about Meier. Basically it might as well say that nobody actually knows anything.

 

[kb]

I don't really see it that way to be completely honest. Our cap opens up in a massive way at the end of next season, and it opens up even more the year after when Tavares is due for a reduced deal getting his last contract here. The Leafs have basically structured their cap around giving themselves as much space as possible to re-sign the big 3 on the next go around, and the only players we're committed to after the end of next year are Marner, Tavares, Rielly, and Jarnkrok. Sure we should have deals in place for Nylander, Matthews, Sandin, Liljegren, and maybe Bunting by then too, but the cap is going up, and we're due to have Murray, Kerfoot, Brodie, and Muzzin come off. We'd essentially just need to trade one of Brodie/Murray along with letting Kerfoot go to fit in Meiers new salary next year.


Look at what Kevin Fiala got and he's both a worse player and was in an identical situation. Teams aren't just going to f*** the Leafs because they're the Leafs. I do think we'd have the space to keep him, but if not, flipping him could very easily make this a very palatable rental cost for arguably one of the best players in the NHL and easily the best on the market.

It's more about what the cap is at next season that will be the issue here.

Right now there are 11 players signed for next season @ $71.5 million. Although that is misleading, as it includes includes Muzzin. That leaves $12 million (on an $83.5 million cap) for the other 9-12 players ($17.7 with Muzzin on LTIR).

Now regardless of whether you take Samsonov or Murray, Samsonov's next contract will be for around Murray's numbers even on a bridge, so there are no real cap savings to be had there (million at most). I expect nothing less than $8-9 million on a 2 year deal.

Now if Meier gets $8.75 AAV, that leaves about $10 million in cap space for 8-11 players as the Leafs will have 5F, 5D, and 2G signed. Timmins and Holmberg will need new contracts too.

I just don't see how the Leafs can build an effective bottom 6 and additional D depth with about $49 million committed to 5 forwards and an $83.5 million cap.

 

[4thline]

I just don't see how the Leafs can build an effective bottom 6 and additional D depth with about $49 million committed to 5 forwards and an $83.5 million cap.

I showed you how. You choose to believe that we're going to stop identifying and developing good bargain players.

 

[kb]

Dubas found Kampf and Bunting for barely over the minimum 2 years ago. He grabbed NAK and ZAR this past season for basically the same (and NAK has been better with Washington). Guys like Holmberg, Anderson, McMann, Abruzzese, SDA, etc should all be ready to take on NHL roles (or larger roles) at league minimum coupled with hopefully another Kampf-type signing to round out the 3C with the extra money left over (Jordan Staal?). Not to mention Knies is all but guaranteed a spot and we might be able to get Engvall to lower his money after a "down" season.

The issue is that the Leafs have to count on that as they have about $10 million to sign 8-11 players, or use unproven rookies.

I don't think any team should be counting on breakout performances as a part of their sustainability model, especially rookies.

I don't see our prospects pool will help much. I see Knies and Holmberg as locks, possibly McCann and Anderson, but as of right now only one of them is good enough to be on the NHL roster full time. Next year they need most of them.

That's way too much hope and what-ifs for a contender. All that just to fit in a 5th nearly $10 million player.

I showed you how. You choose to believe that we're going to stop identifying and developing good bargain players.

You didn't show me a thing.

You fit numbers to a cap, and that the entire bottom 6 will have to be made of league minimum players with zero NHL calibre depth. Some player may make a leap, and some may falter badly. You can't predict or hope on half-dozen or more players that as a part of your strategy.

How has that worked out so far?

 

[4thline]

You didn't show me a thing.

You fit numbers to a cap, and the entire bottom 6 is to be made of league minimum players.

How has that worked out so far?

2, 2.1, and 1.5 are league minimum now?

Based on one groundbreaking assumption, that top 6 with Matthew/Marner/Meier/Nylander/Tavares can be effective while carrying the monumental weight of a elc/ bargain breakout player (Bunting who?), with Meier eating 1.25 million more cap than your own assumption, there would be money for bottom 6 of
1.5m- 2m- Jarncrok
McMann-Holmberg-800k,
in a line up with 2 full time spares.

 

[Morgs]

It's more about what the cap is at next season that will be the issue here.

Right now there are 11 players signed for next season @ $71.5 million. Although that is misleading, as it includes includes Muzzin. That leaves $12 million (on an $83.5 million cap) for the other 9-12 players ($17.7 with Muzzin on LTIR).

Now regardless of whether you take Samsonov or Murray, Samsonov's next contract will be for around Murray's numbers even on a bridge, so there are no real cap savings to be had there (million at most). I expect nothing less than $8-9 million on a 2 year deal.

Now if Meier gets $8.75 AAV, that leaves about $10 million in cap space for 8-11 players as the Leafs will have 5F, 5D, and 2G signed. Timmins and Holmberg will need new contracts too.

I just don't see how the Leafs can build an effective bottom 6 and additional D depth with about $49 million committed to 5 forwards and an $83.5 million cap.

Because the Leafs will do what they've done every year even without having a guy like Meier as a compliment: Fill the bottom-6 with young players on ELCs or that make [around] league min and strategically go after cheap UFAs they feel fit their system that will exceed the value that they cost.It's also one year where they're in a bit of hell (its really not that bad as they can find cheap bottom-6 talent in and out of the org) and it opens right back up the year after assuming Nylander's and Matthews' extensions don't kill us.

Now I don't think it'll happen anyway, but I just don't see cap being a reason why they shouldn't go for it. I basically see 3 scenarios and they all work for me:

1. Trade for him, and re-sign him longterm.
2. Trade for him, he accepts the QO, and you bought a 1.5 year rental during the last season and a half of Matty/Willy's current deals.
3. Trade for him, and trade him in the off-season to recoup assets spent.

 

[TMLAM34]

Additions: Buchnevich/Tarasenko + Acciari

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Buchnevich/Tarasenko - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Acciari - Jarnkrok
Aston Reese - Kampf - Holmberg

Rielly - Liljegren
Giordano - Holl
Sandin - Brodie

Samsonov - Murray


Tarasenko + Acciari will probably be a lot less than Buchnevich + Acciari to acquire but Buchnevichs contract is real nice.

 

[stickty111]

Now I don't think insiders know whats going on with the Leafs as much as they do with other teams. The best example is the Gio trade. He was mentioned as a potential target, but there were no real serious rumors about being our main target. In fact when the first piece of info came out, Ryan Leslie who reports on the Flames first said a Gio trade is gaining traction. The news was so slow to come out. The final details didn't come out until a few hours later. Nobody knew Blackwell was also coming until the official trade was announced.

 

[4thline]

Because the Leafs will do what they've done every year even without having a guy like Meier as a compliment: Fill the bottom-6 with young players on ELCs or that make [around] league min and strategically go after cheap UFAs they feel fit their system that will exceed the value that they cost.It's also one year where they're in a bit of hell (its really not that bad as they can find cheap bottom-6 talent in and out of the org) and it opens right back up the year after assuming Nylander's and Matthews' extensions don't kill us.

Now I don't think it'll happen anyway, but I just don't see cap being a reason why they shouldn't go for it. I basically see 3 scenarios and they all work for me:

1. Trade for him, and re-sign him longterm.
2. Trade for him, he accepts the QO, and you bought a 1.5 year rental during the last season and a half of Matty/Willy's current deals.
3. Trade for him, and trade him in the off-season to recoup assets spent.

It also opens up some fun chemistry combos if you overweight the 3C spend and are willing to play with chemistry and ice time allocations. Staple Jarncrok to the 3C, then put one of the big wings on each line in the top 9, run a super cheap pk/ specialist 4th line.

 

[kb]

Because the Leafs will do what they've done every year even without having a guy like Meier as a compliment: Fill the bottom-6 with young players on ELCs or that make [around] league min and strategically go after cheap UFAs they feel fit their system that will exceed the value that they cost.It's also one year where they're in a bit of hell (its really not that bad as they can find cheap bottom-6 talent in and out of the org) and it opens right back up the year after assuming Nylander's and Matthews' extensions don't kill us.

Now I don't think it'll happen anyway, but I just don't see cap being a reason why they shouldn't go for it. I basically see 3 scenarios and they all work for me:

1. Trade for him, and re-sign him longterm.
2. Trade for him, he accepts the QO, and you bought a 1.5 year rental during the last season and a half of Matty/Willy's current deals.
3. Trade for him, and trade him in the off-season to recoup assets spent.

Like I said, it's definitely doable....but at a huge cost to the rest of the roster.

Why handicap your bottom 6 options, D depth, and trade your newly found G depth for one player? I don't see that making the Leafs better next season with the cap where it is.

The issue has always been trying to identify bargains. For every Kampf or Bunting, there is a Ritchie or a NAK (who didn't fit). So the Leafs can't count on anything when it comes to rookies and role players.

Don't get me wrong here, he's a great player and a great add. If the cap was spiking this year, I would agree and say roll the dice. But the cap issues to get through will IMO make next season's roster less competitive.

And who knows what effects that a Leafs team taking a step back will have on resigning a their own UFA's....

 

[Americanadian]

Because the Leafs will do what they've done every year even without having a guy like Meier as a compliment: Fill the bottom-6 with young players on ELCs or that make [around] league min and strategically go after cheap UFAs they feel fit their system that will exceed the value that they cost.It's also one year where they're in a bit of hell (its really not that bad as they can find cheap bottom-6 talent in and out of the org) and it opens right back up the year after assuming Nylander's and Matthews' extensions don't kill us.

Now I don't think it'll happen anyway, but I just don't see cap being a reason why they shouldn't go for it. I basically see 3 scenarios and they all work for me:

1. Trade for him, and re-sign him longterm.
2. Trade for him, he accepts the QO, and you bought a 1.5 year rental during the last season and a half of Matty/Willy's current deals.
3. Trade for him, and trade him in the off-season to recoup assets spent.

Assuming you can get Benning on top of Meier:

Replace Johnsson with the <1M LW of your choice. Assuming Knies/Sandin go for Meier/Benning.

2024/25 (reported possible 4M cap jump):

It would be very tight in 24/25 but once Tavares' deal expires things get much easier going forward.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Yeah but isn't it way funner to declare winners/losers of a trade just a few hours after it happens?

Agreed. The exact same people who lose their shit and declare "can we at least see him in a Leafs jersey first?" won't wait 60 minutes to declare winners and loser of trades involving the 31 other teams in the league.

 

[kb]

Assuming you can get Benning on top of Meier:

View attachment 644381

Replace Johnsson with the <1M LW of your choice. Assuming Knies/Sandin go for Meier/Benning.

2024/25 (reported possible 4M cap jump):
View attachment 644387

It would be very tight in 24/25 but once Tavares' deal expires things get much easier going forward.

In all fairness, this is exactly what I was saying.

The Leafs are destroying their depth in the bottom-6, D and G to add one player.

These teams both look ugly everywhere once you get past the top-5 forwards.

 

[Morgs]

Like I said, it's definitely doable....but at a huge cost to the rest of the roster.

Why handicap your bottom 6 options, D depth, and trade your newly found G depth for one player? I don't see that making the Leafs better next season with the cap where it is.

The issue has always been trying to identify bargains. For every Kampf or Bunting, there is a Ritchie or a NAK (who didn't fit). So the Leafs can't count on anything when it comes to rookies and role players.

Don't get me wrong here, he's a great player and a great add. If the cap was spiking this year, I would agree and say roll the dice. But the cap issues to get through will IMO make next season's roster less competitive.

And what effects that a team taking a step back will have on resigning a team's UFA's is unknown....

I typically agree with you, but I don't think we're going to agree on this one.

For me it's trimming the fat and better utilizing the cap while using the depth they've acquired already and proven consistently they're capable of getting.

 

[Americanadian]

In all fairness, this is exactly what I was saying.

The Leafs are destroying their depth in the bottom-6, D and G to add one player.

These teams both look ugly everywhere once you get past the top-5 forwards.

The only issue I see with these lineups is the 3rd line for both seasons and the 3rd D pair for 2024/25. McMann-Kampf-Anderson is a fine 4th line going forward and Brodie-Benning is a fine 2nd pair.

I don't believe that going after Meier is the best course unless they are open to trading another piece of the core (Rielly).

 

[kb]

I typically agree with you, but I don't think we're going to agree on this one.

For me it's trimming the fat and better utilizing the cap while using the depth they've acquired already and proven consistently they're capable of getting.

Yeah, probably not going to agree fully on this.

I love the player, that is what I agree with.

If the depth was proven, I believe the Leafs would have fared better overall in the playoffs. Lack of bottom-6 impact has been part of the playoff issue most years (goaltending and lack of scoring in elimination games were the others).

This puts even more pressure on the top-6 to carry the whole show. Because if the top-6 doesn't get it done, then it won't get done.

 

[notDatsyuk]

That's not entirely true

Meier (10M) Matthews- Nylander
Jarncrok-Tavares-Marner
Knies/Robertson-Holmberg (1m)-xxx
McMann- xxx-xxx
xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Gio-Timmins (1m)
xxx

Samsonov (4.5m)
Woll

=5.8m in space for 5 xxx's.
7D, 13F, 4RW at 800k each = 2.4m
Leaves 3.5m for a 3/4C and 3RW

Rental + 1 is incredibly doable if we're comfortable with a Samsonov/Woll tandem.
Longer than that it gets dicey for sure without a guaranteed cap rise. Potentially doable, but a lot of moving parts. His cap hit is likely lower than the QO with term, then maybe the cap rise is enough to cover the AM and WN raises. Some of Brodie's money goes to Liljegren, Sandin potential cap casualty. Who knows. But it's not impossible, and not crippling

Haven't we learned from the Tavares fiasco that going top-heavy and relying on a lot of scrubs for filler doesn't work?

 

[kb]

Haven't we learned from the Tavares fiasco that going top-heavy and relying on a lot of scrubs for filler doesn't work?

It leaves far less room for error in player evaluation, that's for certain.

 

[LeafSteel]

I typically agree with you, but I don't think we're going to agree on this one.

For me it's trimming the fat and better utilizing the cap while using the depth they've acquired already and proven consistently they're capable of getting.

Yeah, probably not going to agree fully on this.

I love the player, that is what I agree with.

If the depth was proven, I believe the Leafs would have fared better overall in the playoffs. Lack of bottom-6 impact has been part of the playoff issue most years (goaltending and lack of scoring in elimination games were the others).

This puts even more pressure on the top-6 to carry the whole show. Because if the top-6 doesn't get it done, then it won't get done.

This exchange is the standard this forum should follow.

Classy end to a good and enlightening conversation from 2 very good posters.

Thanks.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Would you guys re-sign Kampf?

How much would you pay him?

For me, I would focus more on Engvall, but neither of these 2 should receive more than $2M

 

[nuck]

You are one of the few, who believe that D is where this team needs to upgrade. Timely scoring in the playoffs, and goaltending appear to have been our achilles heel in the past. The team is also top 5 in the league in GA/G.... why do you think a D is the priority?

I guess to me adding a winger is patching a lineup hole while assuming that everything else with the D and goal will continue to have the same success in the post season. It may happen because they were a bounce or two from advancing in the past but if the goaltending is a bit shaky or the current defense comes up flat then the winger add won't matter. I have optimism but limited faith in Holl, Sandin and Rielly to be better than Tampa in the playoffs but I do have that faith the forwards can be. It only makes sense if the right guy can be had and the cap works. This is what I want, not what I expect them to do as the noise seems to be about forwards. I am not expecting a Meier level of add though.

 

[LeafChief]

The playoff solution should be 2 top 6 forwards. Jarnkrok has been fine with Tavares and terrible away from him. The Leafs should create 3 offensive lines with Jarnkrok/Bunting/Knies playing 1/2/3 LW as the worst players on each line.

Forward 1: Henrique
Trade 1: Henrique @50% for 2nd+Muzzin+Steeves

Forward 2: Konecny
Trade 2: Konecny for Sandin, 2023 1st, Kerfoot, Robertson

Defenseman (replace Sandin): McCabe
Trade 3: McCabe @50% for 2024 1st

Lineup:
Bunting-Matthews-Konecny
Jarnkrok-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Henrique-Marner
Holmberg-Kampf-Engvall

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Liljegren
Gio-Holl

Samsonov
Murray

This is cap compliant for next season if the Leafs move Murray out and run Samsonov/Woll assuming Samsonov/Bunting sign for 4M each or less.

Edit: Konecny can be replaced by Terry if the Leafs believe they can lock him up in the 5’s.

I kinda love this.