Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

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Remember when looking at CapFriendly that the cap space remaining includes injured players but the roster size does not. The 71.5 number on CapFriendly with a 11 roster includes Muzzin as you mentioned, but also Matthews and Robertson as it should, but doesn't include them when counting players. It even counts Amirov who likely ends up not on the roster. Assuming Amirov isn't there, and Muzzin is done it's actually 18.5 in space with a 13 man roster(Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Jarnkrok, Robertson, Rielly, Brodie, Liljegren, Sandin, Giordano, Murray, Woll).

Lets assume Meier gets 8.5, and we want to run a 21 man roster then that's 10 million for the last 7 guys. Tight, but considering Timmins, and Holmberg are locks with an average of 1 million then it's only 8 million for 5 guys with some guys like Knies, SDA, Anderson, McMann, Abruzzese, Steeves, and Kral pushing for spots. You could probably keep Murray, sign Samsonov and still make it work.


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Haha, I like your thinking. I just made the same team. Sign all the high paid forwards!
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I'd want more coming to the Leafs frankly. Other than this season and his ridiculously unsustainable shooting percentage, he has been a 55-60 point player throughout his career.
That’s why I said Nucks MGT will be thrill if it is Lilly for Bo, lol.

Lilly’s worth more than Bo in the trade market.
 
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I think the Leafs could use more consistency in their bottom six, and since he's a defensive specialist there's little risk of regression. And I'd rather have someone like Kampf locked in at a cheap rate than cycle through tryouts every season

It's a similar logic to what the Isles did with Nick Paul (giving a useful depth player term for a low aav).

Edit: it obviously doesn't have to be that long - just whatever gets his cost down to the lowest possible aav number

The thing that scares me about giving role players huge term is that they're not THAT far away from being waiver fodder. I like Kampf but he's very limited and if he loses like ~25% of his effectiveness, he's barely an NHL player. Frankly I think there's a good chance he's playing in Europe within 5 years, the competition to stay in the league keeps getting fiercer and the guys still going in their mid-30's were usually top 6 mainstays in their primes.
 
Exactly what I see. One serious injury away from "better luck next season".
Gonna be like that no matter what until the cap increases by like 10 mil like expected in 2 years and when Tavares contract ends. Even with 1 of these guys going down with injury it shouldn't be like that anyways with the other talent we got and with how well we have drafted.
 
Gonna be like that no matter what until the cap increases by like 10 mil like expected in 2 years and when Tavares contract ends. Even with 1 of these guys going down with injury it shouldn't be like that anyways with the other talent we got and with how well we have drafted.
Well, I see it this way.

Right now this season people are still complaining about 4 players making $40 million. That would make it 5 players making close to $50 million with only a $1 million cap bump for next season.

Right now the Leafs are well into Muzzin's LTIR before even considering adding another $8.5-$9.5 million player.

Plus the stated acquisition cost will be a first and probably Toronto's 3 best prospects (because their 1st will be low), so all those good drafted players the Leafs had (and will need) were used up in the trade.

Every lineup I have seen still has the players SJ will most likely get back in a trade.

So I don't see how this works. I'm sure most don't see it working either, but...........fun to dream
 
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I don't see this Meier acquisition at all.

The Leafs probably checked in to see the price and the insider's ran with it for the clicks.

How are people looking at this and thinking it makes any sense?
 
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You surely jest with this particularly spicy comparison

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Actually they're pretty similar.

Similar production .. similar games played .. both players struggle with consistency which prevents them from being legit top 6 options.

Two biggest differences:

- PK time .. Kerfoot is a superior PK player
- Contract status .. Beauvillier carries $600k more and an extra year which holds less value for what he brings
 
I dont see Meier either. Too complicated. Friedman just said that the leafs grabbing another defenseman is as minimal as it gets now given their play and depth.

My guess is the Leafs grab 2 bottom 6/9 forwards. Sam Lafferty I think is a legit target.
 
I think the Leafs would be better off getting two 5 million guys rather than another one 10 million dollar player. I would much rather have a killer 3rd line than stack even more cap into the top 6. It doesn't help if Matthews/JT lines are getting shutdown to add another player to the top 6.
 
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Bertuzzi's stock has never been lower. With all the Injury issues he's had so far this season, I think the time to strike is now.

Can be a low-value high reward type of player for us. Obviously has injury concerns but moving forward there's legit potential there to steal a player while his value is low.

Red Wings fans saying we can get probably get him for Minten + 3rd (@50% retained)
 

9. When Jake Muzzin went down, I thought for sure Toronto’s top priority was finding the best possible “Muzzin Replacement.” The way their defencemen have played, I’m not completely convinced that’s still going to be the case. What it sounds like they are looking for are the best possible pieces to complement their core players. That could be a forward, it could be a defenceman, it could be both. But previous acquisitions along the line of a Zach Bogosian or an Ilya Lyubushkin — we might not be headed in that direction. And when Muzzin got hurt, I thought that was a guarantee. I still don’t believe they’re trading their first-rounder (or any of their top prospects) for a rental, either.

.............................

11. I wouldn’t say New Jersey is the team to beat on Timo Meier, but it’s clear teams know the Devils are very much in it. The biggest balancing act for them might be their salary structure. It sounds like they prefer to have no forwards above Jack Hughes’ $8M AAV — or at least not blowing that out of the water. That’s not only a consideration for Meier, but also Jesper Bratt.

12. Erik Karlsson leads all NHL defencemen with 2.49 five-on-five points-per-60 minutes this year. Adam Fox is second at 1.82, a difference of 0.67. There are 30 defencemen within 0.67 of Fox, which only illustrates the craziness of Karlsson’s year. The difference between one and two in this stat is the same as the difference between two and 32. While I think there is much more likelihood any Karlsson move comes in the summer, there is at least one GM who believes this performance won’t prevent a team or two from trying.
 
I don't see this Meier acquisition at all.

The Leafs probably checked in to see the price and the insider's ran with it for the clicks.

How are people looking at this and thinking it makes any sense?
Consider him as maybe a potential replacement for Willie. If KD thinks a sniping top 6 winger might be the tipping point for a Cup run then they add him and decide this summer if Willie's contract ask is not going to work.
 
Consider him as maybe a potential replacement for Willie. If KD thinks a sniping top 6 winger might be the tipping point for a Cup run then they add him and decide this summer if Willie's contract ask is not going to work.
First, I'd much rather keep Willy than Meier.

Second, if you are only keeping one or the other past this year, regardless of which, you are really looking at a rental for the remainder of this season, and how much are you willing to give up for that?
 
First, I'd much rather keep Willy than Meier.

Second, if you are only keeping one or the other past this year, regardless of which, you are really looking at a rental for the remainder of this season, and how much are you willing to give up for that?

Whichever one you don't sign gets traded in the summer, you'll get back a portion of the assets used to acquire Meier.
 
Whichever one you don't sign gets traded in the summer, you'll get back a portion of the assets used to acquire Meier.

You’re not really trading Meier though, just his negotiating rights or him on a 10x1 QO we can’t retain on. I don’t even think we could afford to do an 8.5 x 8 sign and trade even with the 10% offseason cap allowance since Muzzin won’t be on LTIR until game 1. Anyone who wants him can just wait for us to be forced to not qualify him and sign him as a UFA.
 
You’re not really trading Meier though, just his negotiating rights or him on a 10x1 QO we can’t retain on. I don’t even think we could afford to do an 8.5 x 8 sign and trade even with the 10% offseason cap allowance since Muzzin won’t be on LTIR until game 1. Anyone who wants him can just wait for us to be forced to not qualify him and sign him as a UFA.

Muzzin will have one year left on a pure LTIR deal with the real money lower than the AAV. That will not be tough to move in the summer if it came to that. Murrays contract should be moved before next year too. This isn't a reason to not pursue the best available player.
 
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Remember when looking at CapFriendly that the cap space remaining includes injured players but the roster size does not. The 71.5 number on CapFriendly with a 11 roster includes Muzzin as you mentioned, but also Matthews and Robertson as it should, but doesn't include them when counting players. It even counts Amirov who likely ends up not on the roster. Assuming Amirov isn't there, and Muzzin is done it's actually 18.5 in space with a 13 man roster(Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Jarnkrok, Robertson, Rielly, Brodie, Liljegren, Sandin, Giordano, Murray, Woll).

Lets assume Meier gets 8.5, and we want to run a 21 man roster then that's 10 million for the last 7 guys. Tight, but considering Timmins, and Holmberg are locks with an average of 1 million then it's only 8 million for 5 guys with some guys like Knies, SDA, Anderson, McMann, Abruzzese, Steeves, and Kral pushing for spots. You could probably keep Murray, sign Samsonov and still make it work.


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That defense is pretty bad, and so is the bottom 6.

Just goes to show how hard it would be to keep everyone after all the extensions. Gets easier once JT expires, but its rough until then.
 
Muzzin will have one year left on a pure LTIR deal with the real money lower than the AAV. That will not be tough to move in the summer if it came to that. Murrays contract should be moved before next year too. This isn't a reason to not pursue the best available player.
Except that A) the Leafs are deep into using Muzzin's LTIR this season too without Meier, and B) Samsonov will cost what Murray costs on even a shorter term deal. So there is zero savings by moving Murray, unless you want to go Woll and Kallgren. Sounds like a cup winning combo to me. lol

There is basically zero chance to fit him in without dealing one of the big 4. So IMO it's time to let the dream die.

The Leafs cannot pay 5 forwards $50 million if paying 4 of them $40 million means scrimping already.
 
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Would you trade Liljegren for simply a mid 1st round pick right now? If you would the door is over there, sir. This establishment will no longer be serving you.

Like i said, its a no...I was talking only about similar TRADE VALUE.

I also think liljegren is the most overrated leafs player right now, but that still not a reason to trade him for a rental. Hes a pretty excellent 5th who can play up and down the line up

You need to add and not withdraw player like everyone who want to see engval and/or kerfoot, if its not for a clear upgrade and absolutly necessary, it will never happen
 
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Trying for meier just remembered me whats vegas did with pacioretty


Like i said, its a no...I was talking only about similar TRADE VALUE.

I also think liljegren is the most overrated leafs player right now, but that still not a reason to trade him for a rental. Hes a pretty excellent 5th who can play up and down the line up

You need to add and not withdraw player like everyone who want to see engval and/or kerfoot, if its not for a clear upgrade and absolutly necessary, it will never happen

You’re still wrong
 
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