Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Pavel Buchnevich + Noel Acciari

To St. Louis: 2023 1st Round Draft Pick + Alex Kerfoot + Nick Robertson + Fraser Minten


Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Buchnevich - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Acciari - Jarnkrok
Aston Reese - Kampf - Holmberg

Rielly - Liljegren
Sandin - Brodie
Giordano - Holl

Samsonov - Murray

 

[dubplatepressure]

Like i said, its a no...I was talking only about similar TRADE VALUE.

I also think liljegren is the most overrated leafs player right now, but that still not a reason to trade him for a rental. Hes a pretty excellent 5th who can play up and down the line up

You need to add and not withdraw player like everyone who want to see engval and/or kerfoot, if its not for a clear upgrade and absolutly necessary, it will never happen

well what difference does it make? In TRADE VALUE talk Liljegren is nowhere near only a mid 1st round pick to us. Makes more sense though now that you've clarified why you feel this way.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Except that A) the Leafs are deep into using Muzzin's LTIR this season too without Meier, and B) Samsonov will cost what Murray costs on even a shorter term deal. So there is zero savings by moving Murray, unless you want to go Woll and Kallgren. Sounds like a cup winning combo to me. lol

There is basically zero chance to fit him in without dealing one of the big 4. So IMO it's time to let the dream die.

The Leafs cannot pay 5 forwards $50 million if paying 4 of them $40 million means scrimping already.

I don't understand the last two paragraphs. I already acknowledged that one of Meier or Nylander would be dealt. The cap gymnastics described were simply to qualify him in the offseason when you have the 10% buffer. Thats why Muzzin could potentially matter.

Also not that its the main point but I think you're vastly overestimating what Samsonov can command right now. To match this years goalie cap and deliver no savings he would have to be making like $5.7 million next year. Thats insane based on his career and the Leafs should walk away and seek a cheaper option well before that. So yes there would definitely be cap savings if they went that route.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Muzzin will have one year left on a pure LTIR deal with the real money lower than the AAV. That will not be tough to move in the summer if it came to that. Murrays contract should be moved before next year too. This isn't a reason to not pursue the best available player.

Don’t get me wrong I’d rent him if the price isn’t crazy I just wouldn’t expect much back in the summer (especially minus whatever it costs to clear cap), you’d have to bank on moving Nylander to get a meaningful return. It would sting but if his agent says he wants 10+ and Meier comes in at 8.5-9 longterm it’s probably the right call.

 

[thusk]

well what difference does it make? In TRADE VALUE talk Liljegren is nowhere near only a mid 1st round pick to us. Makes more sense though now that you've clarified why you feel this way.

The only young dman similar to liljegren level , at a similar age with a low salary being trade ( trade i remember) is Romanov and its whats he bring... so you can think whatever you want, that trade still the only objective element as comparable.

Playing in toronto dont raise his value

 

[dubplatepressure]

The only young dman similar to liljegren level , at a similar age with a low salary being trade ( trade i remember) is Romanov and its whats he bring... so you can think whatever you want, that trade still the only objective element as comparable.

Playing in toronto dont raise his value

I'm relieved I have your permission to think whatever I want. For a second there I thought I would have to think things about Liljegren I really didn't want to.

 

[GQS]

Like i said, its a no...I was talking only about similar TRADE VALUE.

I also think liljegren is the most overrated leafs player right now, but that still not a reason to trade him for a rental. Hes a pretty excellent 5th who can play up and down the line up

You can't be serious right?!?!? Liljegren overrated? WTF?!?! The guy has been the Leafs most reliable and consistent Dman this season especially during all the Dmen injuries a few weeks back. If the Leafs are smart they should be playing him 20+ minutes a night every game until he gives Keefe a reason not to do so.

You need to add and not withdraw player like everyone who want to see engval and/or kerfoot, if its not for a clear upgrade and absolutly necessary, it will never happen

I'd really would like to see Dubas move those two guys for whatever you can get for them. Let Holmberg be a regular in the lineup and go out and try and get a good scorer/point producer that can play on the top 2 lines. Leafs still have trouble generating points at times and it would be nice to get a talented player to help out in that area. For me Kane if he's available and doesn't cost a ton would be nice.

 

[ACC1224]

The only young dman similar to liljegren level , at a similar age with a low salary being trade ( trade i remember) is Romanov and its whats he bring... so you can think whatever you want, that trade still the only objective element as comparable.

Playing in toronto dont raise his value

No his play alone raises his value.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The only young dman similar to liljegren level , at a similar age with a low salary being trade ( trade i remember) is Romanov

Romanov is not similar to Liljegren's level. Islanders also overpaid for Romanov, but even still, Liljegren's trade value is more than a mid 1st.

 

[ER89]

Don’t get me wrong I’d rent him if the price isn’t crazy I just wouldn’t expect much back in the summer (especially minus whatever it costs to clear cap), you’d have to bank on moving Nylander to get a meaningful return. It would sting but if his agent says he wants 10+ and Meier comes in at 8.5-9 longterm it’s probably the right call.

you'd swap william for meier for a measily 1.5M?

Why?

 

[thusk]

You can't be serious right?!?!? Liljegren overrated? WTF?!?! The guy has been the Leafs most reliable and consistent Dman this season especially during all the Dmen injuries a few weeks back. If the Leafs are smart they should be playing him 20+ minutes a night every game until he gives Keefe a reason not to do so.



I'd really would like to see Dubas move those two guys for whatever you can get for them. Let Holmberg be a regular in the lineup and go out and try and get a good scorer/point producer that can play on the top 2 lines. Leafs still have trouble generating points at times and it would be nice to get a talented player to help out in that area. For me Kane if he's available and doesn't cost a ton would be nice.

You're reaction just show exactly what i said... yes he had been good, most of the time on a 3rd pair as 5th a was able to raise his game to play a top 4 role when peiple get injured... its exactly what you're expecting from an excellent 5th.

Like you're talking, you're look like a guy considerating himself smarter than keefe and leafs coach

Romanov is not similar to Liljegren's level. Islanders also overpaid for Romanov, but even still, Liljegren's trade value is more than a mid 1st.

Wheres liljegren should be better, because hes get better stats from athletic?

It is possible tha playing with AM, marner, JT, nylander helping you to get better offensive stats than suzuli, caufield, dvorak, anderson, hoffman or whatever?

It is possible playing with same player who are pretty great defensivly helping you to look better defensivly

It is possible than getting more puck possession will raise both of offensive and defensive stats bybplay more offensive situation and less defrnsive one?

It is possible than playing a lot against player like bergeron, crosby or whatever big part of the season vs few time, it is possible that will affect both of your offensive and defensive stats?

If you still considerate romanov is also 1 year younger... seriously tell me where liljegren should better playing with by a far a better team, against weaker opposition and most easier situation 1 year older...

When i said liljegren is the most overrated leafs player, its an other excellent exwmple of it

 

[4thline]

Meier scenario 2

Timo gets 8.5, Samsonov 5, Holmberg and Timmins 1.1 each, Knies 950k
Murray traded, 21 man roster.

Meier-Matthews-Nylander
Knies-Tavares-Marner
xxx-yyy-Jarncrok
McMann-Holmberg-xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Gio-Timmins
xxx

Samsonov
Woll

xxx's 800k apiece
The yyy at 3C - as much as 4.2m.

It's very easy to get lost in "5 forwards making 49", without stopping to consider that 5 forwards is almost half the F group, and that it translates into "7 forwards making 55.1" by adding a 4m 3C plus Jarncrok. That leaves 5 budget players.

For comparison
2022 Colorado - Cogliano (1m) O'Connor (725) Newhook (ELC) Aube-Kubel (1m) Sturm (725), Helm making almost 4 but overpaid, next contract 1m
2021 Tampa - Colton (700), Goodrow (925), Maroon (900k), Coleman at 1.9
2020 Tampa- replace Colton with Paquette
2019 St. Louis - Sundqvist (700), Maroon (1.75), Barbashev (741/ ELC), Thomas (ELC), Blais (ELC)
2018 Washington - Beagle (1.75), Connolly (1.5), Vrana (ELC), Smith-Pelley (650), Stephenson (650), Chiasson (660)
2017 Pittsburgh - Guentzel (ELC), Sheary (ELC), Rust (640), Wilson (625), Rowney (612) (plus Bonino and Fehr at ~2m each)
2016 Pittsburgh - Sheary (ELC), Rust (640), Kuhnakl (525), Cullen (800) (plus Bonino and Fehr at ~2m each)

 

[TMLAM34]

If there’s any debate between Romanov and Liljegren, I think Liljegren easily wins.

Meier scenario 2

Timo gets 8.5, Samsonov 5, Holmberg and Timmins 1.1 each, Knies 950k
Murray traded, 21 man roster.

Meier-Matthews-Nylander
Knies-Tavares-Marner
xxx-yyy-Jarncrok
McMann-Holmberg-xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Gio-Timmins
xxx

Samsonov
Woll

xxx's 800k apiece
The yyy at 3C - as much as 4.2m.

It's very easy to get lost in "5 forwards making 49", without stopping to consider that 5 forwards is almost half the F group, and that it translates into "7 forwards making 55.1" by adding a 4m 3C plus Jarncrok. That leaves 5 budget players.

For comparison
2022 Colorado - Cogliano (1m) O'Connor (725) Newhook (ELC) Aube-Kubel (1m) Sturm (725), Helm making almost 4 but overpaid, next contract 1m
2021 Tampa - Colton (700), Goodrow (925), Maroon (900k), Coleman at 1.9
2020 Tampa- replace Colton with Paquette
2019 St. Louis - Sundqvist (700), Maroon (1.75), Barbashev (741/ ELC), Thomas (ELC), Blais (ELC)
2018 Washington - Beagle (1.75), Connolly (1.5), Vrana (ELC), Smith-Pelley (650), Stephenson (650), Chiasson (660)
2017 Pittsburgh - Guentzel (ELC), Sheary (ELC), Rust (640), Wilson (625), Rowney (612) (plus Bonino and Fehr at ~2m each)
2016 Pittsburgh - Sheary (ELC), Rust (640), Kuhnakl (525), Cullen (800) (plus Bonino and Fehr at ~2m each)

I don’t think there’s any chance of acquiring Meier without giving up Knies in the deal. Like zero % chance.

 

[4thline]

I don’t think there’s any chance of acquiring Meier without giving up Knies in the deal. Like zero % chance.

Depends on who San Jose likes. Team prospect lists vary wildly from fan consensus.
If we're willing to go 1st + any other 2-3 prospects the chance is very non zero.

And it doesn't have to be Knies in that spot, could be any ELC or budget signing candidate. The point is that up front we'd be in a scenario where we'd need two ELC priced top 9 contributors to round out an absolutely stacked top 9. In recent memory, off the top of my head, non- blue chip players who we've developed or acquired that have done that (some not in a Leaf jersey)
Hyman, Brown, Johnsson, Engvall, Moore, Marchment, Barabanov, Bunting.

I like our odds of doing it again.

 

[ULF_55]

You're reaction just show exactly what i said... yes he had been good, most of the time on a 3rd pair as 5th a was able to raise his game to play a top 4 role when peiple get injured... its exactly what you're expecting from an excellent 5th.


When i said liljegren is the most overrated leafs player, its an other excellent exwmple of it

Speaking of overrated, how's that 1st. overall working out?

2022 was an interesting draft year, maybe some depth, but no height.

....

Bettman probably wouldn't be happy if trades take spotlight away from the All Star Fiasco Game.

however

Common Trades.

 

[MarMarSab3]

You're reaction just show exactly what i said... yes he had been good, most of the time on a 3rd pair as 5th a was able to raise his game to play a top 4 role when peiple get injured... its exactly what you're expecting from an excellent 5th.

Like you're talking, you're look like a guy considerating himself smarter than keefe and leafs coach


Wheres liljegren should be better, because hes get better stats from athletic?

It is possible tha playing with AM, marner, JT, nylander helping you to get better offensive stats than suzuli, caufield, dvorak, anderson, hoffman or whatever?

It is possible playing with same player who are pretty great defensivly helping you to look better defensivly

It is possible than getting more puck possession will raise both of offensive and defensive stats bybplay more offensive situation and less defrnsive one?

It is possible than playing a lot against player like bergeron, crosby or whatever big part of the season vs few time, it is possible that will affect both of your offensive and defensive stats?

If you still considerate romanov is also 1 year younger... seriously tell me where liljegren should better playing with by a far a better team, against weaker opposition and most easier situation 1 year older...

When i said liljegren is the most overrated leafs player, its an other excellent exwmple of it

Wtf, you honestly have never watched a leaf game this season have you? There have been some horrible takes but this one is unreal

 

[Judas Tavares]

Depends on who San Jose likes. Team prospect lists vary wildly from fan consensus.
If we're willing to go 1st + any other 2-3 prospects the chance is very non zero.

And it doesn't have to be Knies in that spot, could be any ELC or budget signing candidate.

I could be mistaken but from reading about their needs, I think Niemela could be possible as they need defence. But, the Devils and Canes can blow us out of the water there as well. We talk about trying to fit him in under the cap, but trading for him would be hard enough as we would likely have majorly overpay to beat out competitors.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Whichever one you don't sign gets traded in the summer, you'll get back a portion of the assets used to acquire Meier.

Do you think you'll get anywhere near value for someone that everybody knows you can't keep? As I said, how much are you willing to spend on a short rental?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Do you think you'll get anywhere near value for someone that everybody knows you can't keep? As I said, how much are you willing to spend on a short rental?

If the rental is someone as impactful as Meier quite a bit.

Theres a very real chance this is our last season with Matthews. Its entirely possible he's dealt early in the offseason if the extension talks don't start out productive. I'm not saying we need to sell every future, but this is definitely the year to be aggressive.

 

[Leaffan1991]

To Toronto: Pavel Buchnevich + Noel Acciari

To St. Louis: 2023 1st Round Draft Pick + Alex Kerfoot + Nick Robertson + Fraser Minten


Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Buchnevich - Tavares - Nylander
Engvall - Acciari - Jarnkrok
Aston Reese - Kampf - Holmberg

Rielly - Liljegren
Sandin - Brodie
Giordano - Holl

Samsonov - Murray

I like this a lot, fills our biggest needs 2LW and a 3C.

I could be mistaken but from reading about their needs, I think Niemela could be possible as they need defence. But, the Devils and Canes can blow us out of the water there as well. We talk about trying to fit him in under the cap, but trading for him would be hard enough as we would likely have majorly overpay to beat out competitors.

If it's D they need we can send Sandin who is already established instead.

We can then make another trade for a D

 

[4thline]

I could be mistaken but from reading about their needs, I think Niemela could be possible as they need defence. But, the Devils and Canes can blow us out of the water there as well. We talk about trying to fit him in under the cap, but trading for him would be hard enough as we would likely have majorly overpay to beat out competitors.

It will definitely hurt. 1st+Minten+Niemela+??? with the Sharks having a free hand at the prospect pool. It's a lot, but in the above scenario we'd also have 7 of our top 9 locked for multiple years, (8 with Knies). Rielly/Liljegren/Sandin + Samsonov under contract. Presuming reasonable raises to the big 4 as they expire we'd have a wide open window for another half decade.

But, the same is true (and easier) with a cheaper impact LW under contract like Konecny or Buch.

 

[TMLAM34]

To Toronto: Alexis Lafreniere
To Rangers: Alex Kerfoot + Filip Kral + 2023 1st Round Draft Pick


Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Lafreniere - Tavares - Marner

Not bad.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wheres liljegren should be better, because hes get better stats from athletic?

I'm not sure what the Athletic has to do anything. Liljegren is better because Liljegren is better, in pretty much every way. You've really brought no argument to justify equating Romanov and Liljegren, other than the fact that they are similarly aged.

 

[ULF_55]

I don't think Matthews will walk away, but he might not extend so Leafs could do a Tkachuk.

I'd be very surprised if his destination team was the Coyotes.

Arvidsson and Fiala and a pick?

 

[leafan11]

Is this a trade thread or a Liljegren thread ? Also we can’t add Timo while keeping our core 4 together so why keep bringing it up? It’s not gonna happen