Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[SeaOfBlue]

An interesting point from Dorrie



Though it ultimately touches on another problem in the league of GMs willingly giving out contracts they know have issues (ie Lou's own words announcing the deal)

I think he was being sarcastic in reference to giving big money to the other guys (Pulock, Pelech, Nelson, Lee, Palmieri, Pageau, Varlamov, and Eberle) and each time their media saying it was an overpayment.

And while I think he is a very overrated GM, he does have a point. Other than Palmieri and some injuries/inconsistency with Lee in the past few years, none of these deals are really looking all that bad right now, and for the most part, the last few years of each of their deals shouldn't be all that painful either unless injuries start ravaging them like they somewhat have for Lee.

The overall direction of the team is a little bit muddied... They are mediocre and that is really the worst place to be in sports. But at the same time, I understand why they are doing things that way and what the mandate likely was with Lou: new stadium and new owners so they wanted to make the playoffs ASAP. Horvat is a really good move for them to fit that mandate, and the contract is market value (or maybe a hair above) for a guy like him when you compare to what Forsberg, Couture, etc. were getting in recent years... And those guys were playing on far more competitive teams (when they received their contracts; San Jose nose-dived pretty much right after Couture signed his deal) than what Horvat has been playing on for most of his career in VAN.

Islanders still need a few more pieces but they also have 11+ mill in deadline space and could dump Bailey to make more if absolutely necessary. Their pool sucks but they do have a couple of decent prospects which may interest teams and they have all of their picks except their 1st and 3rd in 2023. There is a conceivable possibility where they could be successful, but I also can understand the dread of a looming long and painful rebuild coming at some point unless they do a much better job at drafting and signing NCAA/European guys to supplant their pool. They did poach Jim Paliafito from us so they will likely be looking heavy into Russia especially.

 

[LeafEgo]

Bull****, I'd rubbish this deal no matter who the Islanders GM is

This is the GM of an average team without a ton of young talent in the minors making a win now trade that will not make them an upper echelon team

It's a terrible move for that organization and the position it's currently in imo

If this had been Boston I'd have a completely different view of it because that team is in a far better position to justify what the Islanders just did

The traditional tank-rebuild-develop-contend model should be avoided if possible. If you look around the league it's easy to flail at the bottom for a decade with no end in sight - that can hurt in many ways. It can be necessary, but it doesnt always go as well as Lou's Leafs - if ever that well.

The Isles have a full d corps, elite goaltending, and now two forward studs that will be strong for 5+ years in a decent cap position. Probably better for them to keep middling and age out/flip some of their contracts, stay relevant, push for more successful playoff runs, and see what they can make of it.

Bo should be a good fit and was acquired cheap. His contract is pretty standard given the circumstances.

 

[stickty111]

 

[Gabriel426]

Except for the fact that Horvat's best full season currently roughly equals Nylander's worst season point's wise.....

But that’s the going rate for someone like Bo, a 2C who can score and defend.
I don’t think Islanders or Lou overpaid for him bc that’s his market value. If you want a piece like Bo, that’s the price.
Just like Hyman went for his contract. That’s the price for someone like Hyman. Looking like a bargain contract now bc of the way he is playing.

Bull****, I'd rubbish this deal no matter who the Islanders GM is

This is the GM of an average team without a ton of young talent in the minors making a win now trade that will not make them an upper echelon team

It's a terrible move for that organization and the position it's currently in imo

If this had been Boston I'd have a completely different view of it because that team is in a far better position to justify what the Islanders just did

Well, what you are saying is that the contract itself is okay but not a team like the Islanders.
Even without Horvat, I won’t be surprise if Islanders make the playoffs this year due to Sorokin.
Anyhow, would love Islanders to load up bc they are a team who can actually upset the Bruins as an 8th seed more than the other teams.

 

[Gabriel426]

Such a common gm mistake league-wide.

Player in late 20's has a career season on a contract year. Some insane gm signs him long term based on the assumption that the career year production will continue. Player immediately regresses back to their career averages. Further regression continues and player is an albatross the final few years.

Tale as old as time.

And based on Lou's comment about it, seems ownership strong armed him into it.

But that’s the way it is.
When signing a long term deal when a player is 27 -29, the last few years will always be iffy. But when your team win the Cup, who cares.
This is in general and not about the Islanders.
Just like the Leafs, if they win the Cup this playoffs, nobody will talk about JT is overpaid or MM should have signed cheaper or AM with his terms…..

 

[Rielly4]

Chychrun would be a great add but at that level of production on that contract you would think the trade value would be through the roof. I would certainly move Sandin and a 1st but I would NOT move Matthew Knies.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Chychrun
Crouse
Hayton

To Arizona-
Kerfoot
Engvall
Sandin
Knies
1st Round Pick

Chychrun instantly becomes our best defenseman, while Crouse is what we hope Knies can turn into. While Knies shows he might have more offense then Crouse, let's remember he's playing in the NCAA while Crouse is doing it at the NHL level. Hayton slides Kampf down to 4th line center.

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Marner
Holmberg-Hayton-Jarnkrok
AstonReese-Kampf-Anderson

Chychrun-Liljegren
Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Timmons

Samsonov
Murray

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Gotta trade for a forward.

 

[rojac]

Provorov’s stance on the pride night jersey almost certainly disqualifies him from being a Leaf under this management group

One would hope it would be true for future management groups as well.

 

[MarMarSab3]

One would hope it would be true for future management groups as well.

God forbid someone have there own belief lol

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Gotta trade for a forward.

Jarnkrok is doing much better since moving to the top 6. He was awful before that so his numbers don't look good but since the middle of November, they are much better.

Shutdown line does well preventing goals, but not getting them.

ZAR and Holmberg are the main ones. ZAR has sucked all year. Holmberg's underlying isn't great but he has like a 57 GF%.

You probably need one guy and then add Knies to the group and our depth can go up anyone.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Crouse and Chychrun would be a massive home run.
We would have to give up Knies but honestly it would be worth it.

1st round pick
Knies
Sandin
Kerfoot

And then if you could somehow add a 3C that would be a Stanley cup lineup I would say.

Bunting Matthews Nylander
Crouse Tavares Marner
Engvall 3C Jarnkrok
ZAR Kampf Holmberg

Chychrun Brodie (play against top lines)
Rielly Lilly(play against weaker third or fourth lines)
Giordano Holl (play against second lines)
Timmins

Sammy
Murray

 

[Martin Skoula]

Gotta trade for a forward.

Boston, TB, and Carolina have Bergeron, Point/Cirelli, and Staal taking the main shutdown roles as top-6 lines. A guy like Nick Paul is getting 48% offensive zone starts vs Kampf getting 20-30% the past few years against better competition , I wouldn’t expect Kampf to be in the same ballpark on xGF% considering they’re doing completely different jobs. Kampf treading water and breaking even against top units is a win for us.

We need an add or two, sure, but running a ROR-Matthews-Marner unit in more of a top line shutdown deployment would probably do more for the bottom-6’s numbers by opening up offensive minutes than getting a premium middle-6er on the Kampf unit and continuing to use them the same way as we are now.

 

[Gabriel426]

Gotta trade for a forward.

Or just split up the big core and form three really good lines.

 

[Menzinger]

To Toronto-
Chychrun
Crouse
Hayton

To Arizona-
Kerfoot
Engvall
Sandin
Knies
1st Round Pick

Chychrun instantly becomes our best defenseman, while Crouse is what we hope Knies can turn into. While Knies shows he might have more offense then Crouse, let's remember he's playing in the NCAA while Crouse is doing it at the NHL level. Hayton slides Kampf down to 4th line center.

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Marner
Holmberg-Hayton-Jarnkrok
AstonReese-Kampf-Anderson

Chychrun-Liljegren
Rielly-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Timmons

Samsonov
Murray

I think if Arizona were to move both Crouse and Chychrun (plus another player) they'd want the 2024 1st as well. The best three Leafs assets in your proposal would likely land Chychrun on his own

 

[Kiwi]

The traditional tank-rebuild-develop-contend model should be avoided if possible. If you look around the league it's easy to flail at the bottom for a decade with no end in sight - that can hurt in many ways. It can be necessary, but it doesnt always go as well as Lou's Leafs - if ever that well.

The Isles have a full d corps, elite goaltending, and now two forward studs that will be strong for 5+ years in a decent cap position. Probably better for them to keep middling and age out/flip some of their contracts, stay relevant, push for more successful playoff runs, and see what they can make of it.

Bo should be a good fit and was acquired cheap. His contract is pretty standard given the circumstances.

Yeah, just sit in the middle of the table spinning your tyres and pray for a miracle

We got better after we tanked and sucked so bad we had multiple high draft picks after trying to win for about 15 years, if you dont have the talent you go nowhere and the Islanders don't have the talent

Two forward studs? They don't even have one let alone two and the core that had the playoff success is aging out
That's why they suck even though they are getting elite goaltending

But that’s the going rate for someone like Bo, a 2C who can score and defend.
I don’t think Islanders or Lou overpaid for him bc that’s his market value. If you want a piece like Bo, that’s the price.
Just like Hyman went for his contract. That’s the price for someone like Hyman. Looking like a bargain contract now bc of the way he is playing.


Well, what you are saying is that the contract itself is okay but not a team like the Islanders.
Even without Horvat, I won’t be surprise if Islanders make the playoffs this year due to Sorokin.
Anyhow, would love Islanders to load up bc they are a team who can actually upset the Bruins as an 8th seed more than the other teams.

That team has had elite goaltending and they still can't solidify a playoff position, that's one hell of an effort

They aren't beating the Bruins, first they have to make the playoffs then they have to beat a team that is superior in almost every position

Best of luck with that

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I think if Arizona were to move both Crouse and Chychrun (plus another player) they'd want the 2024 1st as well. The best three Leafs assets in your proposal would likely land Chychrun on his own

Why would we give up that much for Chychrun when Sandin is trending towards being a top 4 D in his own right at 1/4 the salary this year and next? You're better off keeping Knies and the 1sts at that point.

If we're emptying the farm to that extent you better be getting an elite RD or LW for this team. If Chychrun was worth that kind of package Arizona wouldn't be as bad as they are.

I like Crouse, but like Ritchie, would be a bad fit for the kind of pace our group has. Not sure he could keep up.

 

[Menzinger]

Why would we give up that much for Chychrun when Sandin is trending towards being a top 4 D in his own right at 1/4 the salary this year and next? You're better off keeping Knies and the 1sts at that point.

If we're emptying the farm to that extent you better be getting an elite RD or LW for this team. If Chychrun was worth that kind of package Arizona wouldn't be as bad as they are.

I like Crouse, but like Ritchie, would be a bad fit for the kind of pace our group has. Not sure he could keep up.

I agree. Personally I don't have much interest in either guy from Arizona based on the likely cost. I also think Knies is close to untouchable (but obviously right player he can be moved.

 

[Future]

Chychrun is a bonafide young top 2-4 D on a team friendly contract. Have no problem pursuing him, as long as it means we’re keeping Knies. Would give up 2 firsts and Ty Voit or something.

Chychrun holds a ton of value as a shooting threat on the PP as well and could make a huge impact on that unit. Rielly is slow, passive, and predictable at this point and teams are able to take away space from the big 4 because they know Rielly isn’t going to do anything.

 

[Kurtz]

Trading Knies would be the biggest error we've made in a prospect trade since Rask. Don't do it. He'll be a contributor this year and thereafter.

 

[TMLAM34]

I think a deal involving Chychrun AND Crouse is a pipe dream. We would have to gut the farm and future.

 

[thusk]

For people really high on chychrun

1- chychrun will mot score as much in toronto than what he did in arizona, you can put chychrun on pp 1 and leafs pp will not be better

Keefe strategy is to keep possession as much as you can so they dont want long shot with low probabilities to go in and high probabilities to lost possession

2- chychrun is not a shutdown D, everything you blaming rielly like being over agressive on offensive end, doesn't see where the danger is on the ice... you will see all those thing with chychrun too but hes more physical... the only time Arizona tried to use him as a shutdown D, he was totally trash ( beggining of last season)

I dont know what you are expecting of Chychrun but i dont thing think bringing chychrun will improve leafs as much of people think here

But lets be clear, hes a solid top 4 dmanbut i repeat, hrs not even clise to be whats leafs need

 

[TMLAM34]

For people really high on chychrun

1- chychrun will mot score as much in toronto than what he did in arizona, you can put chychrun on pp 1 and leafs pp will not be better

Keefe strategy is to keep possession as much as you can so they dont want long shot with low probabilities to go in and high probabilities to lost possession

2- chychrun is not a shutdown D, everything you blaming rielly like being over agressive on offensive end, doesn't see where the danger is on the ice... you will see all those thing with chychrun too but hes more physical... the only time Arizona tried to use him as a shutdown D, he was totally trash ( beggining of last season)

I dont know what you are expecting of Chychrun but i dont thing think bringing chychrun will improve leafs as much of people think here

But lets be clear, hes a solid top 4 dmanbut i repeat, hrs not even clise to be whats leafs need

If Chychrun were to join the Leafs, he’d be our best defenceman. That alone is worth the upgrade even though he may not be the shutdown defenceman we technically need.

You’re also just guessing his offensive totals won’t get better in Toronto. In fact, many many many people will completely disagree with you there. He’d be joining a better overall team, a team way better than Arizona offensively and get to play with superstars like Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly… My guess is at some point he will set new career highs offensively and I think many would agree.

To also say he wouldn’t help on the powerplay due to Keefe liking puck possession, Keefe has never had a player of Chychrun’s caliber on the powerplay. He will make necessary adjustments to maximize his outcome.

At the end of the day, a 24 year old defence man locked up to a very reasonable contract for another two years who would step in and be our best defenceman today is definitely worth trading for.

 

[thusk]

If Chychrun were to join the Leafs, he’d be our best defenceman. That alone is worth the upgrade even though he may not be the shutdown defenceman we technically need.

You’re also just guessing his offensive totals won’t get better in Toronto. In fact, many many many people will completely disagree with you there. He’d be joining a better overall team, a team way better than Arizona offensively and get to play with superstars like Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly… My guess is at some point he will set new career highs offensively and I think many would agree.

To also say he wouldn’t help on the powerplay due to Keefe liking puck possession, Keefe has never had a player of Chychrun’s caliber on the powerplay. He will make necessary adjustments to maximize his outcome.

At the end of the day, a 24 year old defence man locked up to a very reasonable contract for another two years who would step in and be our best defenceman today is definitely worth trading for.

Like boosh was supposed to be better in toronto, or oel imln vancouver or yandle when he was traded to NYR? The reality its right now, hes playing in a team with no pressure, chychrun having a freedom to do what he want on the ice because the only goal of arizona right now is developing their young player... he will not have as much freedom in toronto and will have to play in a system. So the chance chychrun become worst in Toronto is probably as high of the possibility and becoming better...

The year before keefe become leafs head coach, rielly scored 20 goal, since keefe is the new coach, he didn't reach 20 goal in 221 games... with matthews, marner, nylandet, jt on pp... theu dont want a d who will take long shot and made leafs lost possession, leafs want to have the puck as.much of possible on stick of their stars.

and no i dont think lile you than chychrun would become the #1... he would be in top 3 but not #1

 

[Peace Frog]

Like boosh was supposed to be better in toronto, or oel imln vancouver or yandle when he was traded to NYR? The reality its right now, hes playing in a team with no pressure, chychrun having a freedom to do what he want on the ice because the only goal of arizona right now is developing their young player... he will not have as much freedom in toronto and will have to play in a system. So the chance chychrun become worst in Toronto is probably as high of the possibility and becoming better...

The year before keefe become leafs head coach, rielly scored 20 goal, since keefe is the new coach, he didn't reach 20 goal in 221 games... with matthews, marner, nylandet, jt on pp... theu dont want a d who will take long shot and made leafs lost possession, leafs want to have the puck as.much of possible on stick of their stars.

and no i dont think lile you than chychrun would become the #1... he would be in top 3 but not #1

Well hopefully we end up getting Chychrun, so we can find out who’s right about him. I just really don’t want to lose Knies.

It’s not that I think that Knies is going to be the second coming. I’m just really interested to see what he might be able to do for us in the future.