Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[SprDaVE]

I would love a Barbashev, but Meier would have been perfect here. Shame that the price is going to be outrageous though, (reported 1st, A prospect and 2 B prospects?)

Reported asking price is rarely ever the final price. Horvat had a similar asking price months ago. It's very unlikely the Leafs match a potential bidding war for a legit star, but I was hoping them to try really hard.

Barbashev isn't close to the same stratosphere as Meier. It's like settling for Jarnkrok instead of going for Nylander.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Reported asking price is rarely ever the final price. Horvat had a similar asking price months ago.

Barbashev isn't close to the same stratosphere as Meier.

Everything you just said is in the "no shit, sherlock" territory.

 

[kb]

You guys are selling me on Meier.

Instead of looking at losing Nylander to resign him, shouldn’t we be looking at walking away from Bunting and Murray?

I don’t see Bunting reupping for under $4m and hopefully Samsonov and Will can take the net over next season.

That Kerfoot has to be gone I think goes without saying.

Still worry about the cost to get him. Knies and Niemala are my gotta keeps.

Probably a bunch of nothingness anyways….

Murray is not UFA - he has one more season. Bunting at $4 million probably means he walks.

There is no way outside of trading a big-4 to keep Meier, and to fit him in will require retention, which adds to the nearly prohibitive cost.

He's a great add as a player, but impossible to fit cap wise without gutting the future to get him, and then trading one of the big-4 to keep him.

Logistically it does not work.

 

[613Leafer]

Reported asking price is rarely ever the final price. Horvat had a similar asking price months ago.

Barbashev isn't close to the same stratosphere as Meier. It's like settling for Jarnkrok instead of going for Nylander.

Barbashev's 9 points in 50 career playoff games would fit in very nicely alongside our poor playoff performing depth players like Kerfoot and Engvall!

 

[thusk]

Liljergen is worth FAR more than NYI’s 1st round pick. They’re not comparable assets

Liljegren having a similar value than romanov and they are comparable asset. Romanov has been traded with 98th (3rd pick) for 13th overal. So yes if you remain objective, yes its the case...

 

[kb]

I don’t think Toronto even sniffs trading for Timo unless they have had a conversation about what the money and term looks like about resigning.

If Toronto trades for him, it’ll be fairly certain there’s a contract extension in place, management wouldn’t let his 10m QO dictate how they move forward.

You would think, but look at the Isles.....

And that means not only would they have to have a deal in place for Meier, but also one for moving out one of their big-4 as well.

 

[kb]

Liljegren having a similar value than romanov and they are comparable asset. Romanov has been traded with 98th (3rd pick) for 13th overal. So yes if you remain objective, yes its the case...

No, the draft pedigree value is long gone 6 years later unless you are Lou Lam. Even so, Liljegren was also ranked #2 going into his draft year.

It's all player value now. Liljegren is far far above Romanov on any metric you care to choose.

The are not even close to the same level......Lily is several tiers above him as a player, and as an asset.

Lou being stupid doesn't change that.

 

[geo25]

No they’re not, unfortunately. Definitely didn’t mean AM. Lol. This is a tough situation really. I absolutely LOVE Marner, but I really worry that he’s going to be asking for the moon on his next contract.

I think he’s overpaid as it is, and really, should only be getting what he’s currently getting, on his next contract.

Although there are things about Willy’s game that really frustrate me, he has played great and is definitely outplaying his current contract.

Problem is, he was VERY difficult to get under contract last time around. What’s it going to be like this time?

I dont believe he'll go any easier on the Leafs & will squeeze every $ he can...then Marner will follow suit...definitely the time to think about trading Nylander if they great a great return...

 

[stickty111]

Didnt hear it myself but its what most of us kind of assumed.

Well thats too bad but not surprising. Buchnevich is my next best big option

 

[Judas Tavares]

Here are my non-rental targets:

View attachment 644283
Not a player that fits our team better, and players like him are never available at this age. Although the cost is likely steep, we'd have the ability to trade him in the offseason to recoup the assets if we can't make the cap work... But I do think we could make it work long term if we wanted while keeping the big 3 (and signing Tavares to a smaller contract once his deal expires).

View attachment 644286
Signed at an awesome contract for 2.5 more seasons, and an excellent offensive player that would be great on either of our top-6 lines or has the ability to drive a line on his own. I'd also expect him to cost less than Meier to acquire, but I'm not even certain he's made available.

View attachment 644291

Pretty much Buchnevich but slightly worse and a fantastic contract for another 2.5 years. Another guy who would be a perfect addition to the top-6, but he'd likely force Nylander to LW, which is a bit unfortunate.

Others:
Jesse Puljujarvi
David Perron
Brock Boeser
Conor Garland
Joel Farabee
Adam Henrique

I think Meier is a pipedream. Maybe I'm wrong and Dubas goes out and acquires him, but I think other than creating clicks via rumours, we probably aren't connected to him and shouldn't expect him to be dealt for.

I think Buchnevich, Perron and Henrique would seem like Dubas' targets for players with term. I'd say Konecny as well but I personally don't think he will be made available.

 

[Morgs]

There are 2 major issues with Meier. Timing is one, cap hit is another.

The Leafs have to have the Meier situation settled before July 1st if the Leafs are going to be in on any meaningful UFA's without the Meier RFA situation hanging over their heads.

This means that teams can sit back and know that Meier will force the Leafs to trade one of their big-4 to fit him in, so they can afford to wait for something to shake loose, or the Leafs have to cut Meier loose to become UFA like the Samsonov situation.

This could blow up in their face.

I don't really see it that way to be completely honest. Our cap opens up in a massive way at the end of next season, and it opens up even more the year after when Tavares is due for a reduced deal getting his last contract here. The Leafs have basically structured their cap around giving themselves as much space as possible to re-sign the big 3 on the next go around, and the only players we're committed to after the end of next year are Marner, Tavares, Rielly, and Jarnkrok. Sure we should have deals in place for Nylander, Matthews, Sandin, Liljegren, and maybe Bunting by then too, but the cap is going up, and we're due to have Murray, Kerfoot, Brodie, and Muzzin come off. We'd essentially just need to trade one of Brodie/Murray along with letting Kerfoot go to fit in Meiers new salary next year.

Agreed .. the Leafs lose a lot of leverage in moving Meier or one of the big 4 in this situation. They won't be be able to maximize value on the market

Look at what Kevin Fiala got and he's both a worse player and was in an identical situation. Teams aren't just going to f*** the Leafs because they're the Leafs. I do think we'd have the space to keep him, but if not, flipping him could very easily make this a very palatable rental cost for arguably one of the best players in the NHL and easily the best on the market.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

 

[thusk]

No, the draft pedigree value is long gone 6 years later unless you are Lou Lam. Even so, Liljegren was also ranked #2 going into his draft year.

It's all player value now. Liljegren is far far above Romanov on any metric you care to choose.

The are not even close to the same level......Lily is several tiers above him as a player, and as an asset.

Lou being stupid doesn't change that.

1 of those 2 playing on a 3rd pair( when every one healthy) in one of best NHL team
Vs the second who didn't play outside of top 4 and was playing against toughest matchup during half of seqsln


The fact liljegren playing in 1 of 5 best NHL team who make him look better than what he is in reality, exactly like they did with Timmins... at the end thats not making liljegren a better player... just making liljegren a player with more tool around him to look good

Take liljegren and put him in any trash team, he would never be close of having similar stats.

 

[ACC1224]

1 of those 2 playing on a 3rd pair( when every one healthy) in one of best NHL team
Vs the second who didn't play outside of top 4 and was playing against toughest matchup during half of seqsln


The fact liljegren playing in 1 of 5 best NHL team who make him look better than what he is in reality, exactly like they did with Timmins... at the end thats not making liljegren a better player... just making liljegren a player with more tool around him to look good

Take liljegren and put him in any trash team, he would never be close of having similar stats.

That is some whacked out logic.

 

[4thline]

Murray is not UFA - he has one more season. Bunting at $4 million probably means he walks.

There is no way outside of trading a big-4 to keep Meier, and to fit him in will require retention, which adds to the nearly prohibitive cost.

He's a great add as a player, but impossible to fit cap wise without gutting the future to get him, and then trading one of the big-4 to keep him.

That's not entirely true

Meier (10M) Matthews- Nylander
Jarncrok-Tavares-Marner
Knies/Robertson-Holmberg (1m)-xxx
McMann- xxx-xxx
xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Gio-Timmins (1m)
xxx

Samsonov (4.5m)
Woll

=5.8m in space for 5 xxx's.
7D, 13F, 4RW at 800k each = 2.4m
Leaves 3.5m for a 3/4C and 3RW

Rental + 1 is incredibly doable if we're comfortable with a Samsonov/Woll tandem.
Longer than that it gets dicey for sure without a guaranteed cap rise. Potentially doable, but a lot of moving parts. His cap hit is likely lower than the QO with term, then maybe the cap rise is enough to cover the AM and WN raises. Some of Brodie's money goes to Liljegren, Sandin potential cap casualty. Who knows. But it's not impossible, and not crippling

 

[kb]

1 of those 2 playing on a 3rd pair( when every one healthy) in one of best NHL team
Vs the second who didn't play outside of top 4 and was playing against toughest matchup during half of seqsln


The fact liljegren playing in 1 of 5 best NHL team who make him look better than what he is in reality, exactly like they did with Timmins... at the end thats not making liljegren a better player... just making liljegren a player with more tool around him to look good

Take liljegren and put him in any trash team, he would never be close of having similar stats.

Take the loss.....

This is flat out embarrassing.

 

[Kiwi]

I was thinking about ways of opening up cap room
There's the obvious guy in Kerfoot but he does pretty well in the playoffs and he has value to the team because of his utility

I wonder if we could find somebody to take on Murray and free up his almost 5M, it may cost something but he hasn't been awful this season so maybe it wouldn't be to onerous?

There's some serious risk involved if Samsonov turns into a pumpkin or Woll/Kallgren can't do a job as a backup but we would have a ton of cap room to make moves

 

[Morgs]

Yeah I really don't buy that either knows shit. Chris Johnson really been out of the know with everything Leafs since he went to DF. To be fair though they've all proven that since Dubas has been around that nothing gets leaked in that FO and it's all speculation. We have basically been in the know about 2 things since hes been GM:

1. Davidson's team leaked the MAF trade talks to the media.
2. Marner's camp leaked contract discussions to Dreger.

All we know is how Dubas typically runs the team come deadline, and he's both attacked the market early and last minute. He's gone after big fish, and depth players. He's gone for rentals and for multi-year deals. He always does something. In other words, we all have no clue what he's going to do, especially the "insiders".

 

[Judas Tavares]

A couple things I just saw in the Meier thread on the main board from different sources.

2023 1st round pick
Alexander Holtz
pick 2 of: Nolan Foote, Reilly Walsh, Chase Stillman, Kevin Bahl, Nikita Okhotiuk, Ethan Edwards

So in this instance:
2023 1st
Niemela
pick 2 of: Hirvonen, Moldenhauer, Tverberg, etc...

This doesn't beat what the Devils/Canes/Sabres could do though.

As well, from this Athletic article in terms of modelling it after the Horvat deal:

Here are a few ideas, based on what the Canucks got for Horvat:

• Alexander Holtz (No. 72 on Pronman’s list), Yegor Sharangovich or Nolan Foote and a protected 2023 first from the New Jersey Devils?
• Peyton Krebs (No. 76) or Matthew Savoie (No. 81), Casey Mittelstadt and a protected 2023 first from the Buffalo Sabres?
• Rutger McGroarty (No. 85), Adam Lowry or Chaz Lucius (No. 131) and a protected 2023 first from the Winnipeg Jets?
• Braden Schneider (No. 51) or Brennan Othmann (No. 135), Vitali Kravtsov and a protected 2023 first from the New York Rangers?
• Matthew Knies (No. 59) or Rasmus Sandin (No. 121), Alexander Kerfoot or Pierre Engvall and a protected 2023 first from the Toronto Maple Leafs?

 

[kb]

That's not entirely true

Meier (10M) Matthews- Nylander
Jarncrok-Tavares-Marner
Knies/Robertson-Holmberg (1m)-xxx
McMann- xxx-xxx
xxx

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Gio-Timmins (1m)
xxx

Samsonov (4.5m)
Woll

=5.8m in space for 5 xxx's.
7D, 13F, 4RW at 800k each = 2.4m
Leaves 3.5m for a 3/4C and 3RW

Rental + 1 is incredibly doable if we're comfortable with a Samsonov/Woll tandem.
Longer than that it gets dicey for sure without a guaranteed cap rise. Potentially doable, but a lot of moving parts. His cap hit is likely lower than the QO with term, then maybe the cap rise is enough to cover the AM and WN raises. Some of Brodie's money goes to Liljegren, Sandin potential cap casualty. Who knows. But it's not impossible, and not crippling

I mean, sure......this is technically doable. But I look at that and think that the Leafs will be hard pressed to repeat these past couple of seasons, let alone come playoffs time.

I hope people can understand that $5 million for an entire bottom 6 means that those lines will be caved in, and the D doesn't have any real support should Gio start to age out and/or Timmins injury woes pop back up.

 

[ACC1224]

What does it say? Image is cut off

 

[Judas Tavares]

What does it say? Image is cut off

Freidman says Meier is on Toronto's radar, Johnston says he is not.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yeah but isn't it way funner to declare winners/losers of a trade just a few hours after it happens?

Plus it's Lou, so on this board at least, it has to have been an unmitigated disaster of biblical proportions.

 

[4thline]

I mean, sure......this is technically doable. But I look at that and think that the Leafs will be hard pressed to repeat these past couple of seasons, let alone come playoffs time.

I hope people can understand that $5 million for an entire bottom 6 means that those lines will be caved in, and the D doesn't have any real support should Gio start to age out and/or Timmins injury woes pop back up.

That lineup includes more day 1/ healthy injury flexibility than we've iced in years with 2 constant spares.
We'd still be able to stock a stable of 6-7-8 d men on league min deals
We'd still be able to hunt bargains to duplicate what we've done the last few years
3.5+3.2 is 6.7m. Flip Knies/Robby and Jarncrok and you're up to an 8m bottom 6.
Run a 21 man and that opens up another 800k.

It's lean but this front offices entire MO has been pulling cap efficient talent out of their asses, and we're just getting to the point where their draft picks are adding to that pool.

 

[thusk]

Take the loss.....

This is flat out embarrassing.

Not really, you reacting like hes the best leafs defender when hes the 5th in leafs chart in a team amount leader in NHL with use of avanced stats... but for sure, you're probably smarter of the entire organisation.

I just dont understand why you're not already having a job with leafs...