Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXIX

[bert]

I think it's possible that having Ryan Bowness as AGM could have potentially scared the Sens away from Marino. He was in Pittsburgh last year when, by many accounts, Marino had a pretty disappointing season.

Bowness would be the guy on staff that should known this player better than anybody else, and if he didn't endorse him...

A team like New Jersey who have a pretty sophisticated sports science/analytics crew and a robust pro scouting complement would probably see that he was a good bet to make. A team like Ottawa who do zero work on the data side and have a handful of clueless oldheads in their pro scouting group probably wouldn't.

Then again, people are a lot more interested in him now than they were when I was advocating for him last summer. We'd be better off had the 7th overall gone for Marino rather than DeBrincat.

This is about as HF Boards as you can possibly go. Wild revisionist history and pure trust in advanced stats over actually watching and evaluating. You're saying the head of professional scouting who watched the player for years and was part of developing him had a less educated view of the player than a bunch of analytics peoeple that never watched him?

You don't think the deal had more to do with the type of player that was traded for him? An actual NHLer in Ty Smith on a cost controlled contract? Who was a much more highly touted prospect than anyone the sens had on the back end outside of Sanderson. Smith was a higher pick than anyone the sens were offering and had a way better NHL track record. If you are going to willfully ignore this and were putting on our tinfoil hats as to this being an internal error let's go deeper.

Its Quite the stretch. But let's say analytics has now surpassed the eye test of 100's of NHL games. (Which not a single NHL team is currently run) . You then go on to say that they should have spent 7th overall on what was barely a top 4 d man over a proven 40 scorer who is 24. No one makes that deal. No one has a crystal ball. You dont know if Marino fits in here as well as he does in NJ. Pittsburgh has a way better system and supporting cast than Ottawa. Why wouls you assume he would be better here than there?Plenty things to complain about that we actually know about.

Bro, Methot was taken in Vegas' expansion draft.

So why wasn't he protected or valued and assets spent to retain him? Same concept. Dorion doesn't know how to evaluate this type of player.

 

[bert]

Is there any information about Dorion that shows he wasn't going after Marino? I have never seen anything to say he did or didn't. As for Methot, I was under the impression that everyone was upset because Dorion failed to get value back for him during the expansion draft, and not because he didn't offer him to pay him. In fact, Methot was I think slightly overpaid.

So you suffer from the same evaluation ability as Dorion. How can you say this when he clearly wasn't. He's exactly what this team is missing right now and it's not easy to find players like this.

 

[Bevans]

This is about as HF Boards as you can possibly go. Wild revisionist history and pure trust in advanced stats over actually watching and evaluating. You're saying the head of professional scouting who watched the player for years and was part of developing him had a less educated view of the player than a bunch of analytics peoeple that never watched him?

You don't think the deal had more to do with the type of player that was traded for him? An actual NHLer in Ty Smith on a cost controlled contract? Who was a much more highly touted prospect than anyone the sens had on the back end outside of Sanderson. Smith was a higher pick than anyone the sens were offering and had a way better NHL track record. If you are going to willfully ignore this and were putting on our tinfoil hats as to this being an internal error let's go deeper.

Its Quite the stretch. But let's say analytics has now surpassed the eye test of 100's of NHL games. (Which not a single NHL team is currently run) . You then go on to say that they should have spent 7th overall on what was barely a top 4 d man over a proven 40 scorer who is 24. No one makes that deal. No one has a crystal ball. You dont know if Marino fits in here as well as he does in NJ. Pittsburgh has a way better system and supporting cast than Ottawa. Why wouls you assume he would be better here than there?Plenty things to complain about that we actually know about.


So why wasn't he protected or valued and assets spent to retain him? Same concept. Dorion doesn't know how to evaluate this type of player.

Because Phaneuf wouldn't waive his trade protection and the Senators had to protect karlsson/ceci.

Considering two of those guys are having excellent seasons and methot is an excellent colour commentator, this is an odd criticism.

 

[bert]

Because Phaneuf wouldn't waive his trade protection and the Senators had to protect karlsson/ceci.

Considering two of those guys are having excellent seasons and methot is an excellent colour commentator, this is an odd criticism.

The point and where this started is Dorion doesn't value this type of player. Im not talking about the senators right now and having Methot play for them. Clearly Methot wouldnt be playing in 2022. There were alternatives to retaining methot at the time. Including offering something to Vegas to take someone else or exposing ceci.

 

[GCK]

The point and where this started is Dorion doesn't value this type of player. Im not talking about the senators right now and having Methot play for them. Clearly Methot wouldnt be playing in 2022. There were alternatives to retaining methot at the time. Including offering something to Vegas to take someone else or exposing ceci.

I agree Dorion definitely does not value this type of D, his history shows that clearly. However, history also shows that expansion draft side deals were bad ideas. If you remember Vegas were demanding our 1st round pick in a deal to not take Methot and that pick turned into Jake Sanderson. It actually wound up being the smartest decision Dorion has ever made.

 

[Loach]

I think it's possible that having Ryan Bowness as AGM could have potentially scared the Sens away from Marino. He was in Pittsburgh last year when, by many accounts, Marino had a pretty disappointing season.

Bowness would be the guy on staff that should known this player better than anybody else, and if he didn't endorse him...

A team like New Jersey who have a pretty sophisticated sports science/analytics crew and a robust pro scouting complement would probably see that he was a good bet to make. A team like Ottawa who do zero work on the data side and have a handful of clueless oldheads in their pro scouting group probably wouldn't.

Then again, people are a lot more interested in him now than they were when I was advocating for him last summer. We'd be better off had the 7th overall gone for Marino rather than DeBrincat.

So New Jersey knew more than the guy that worked with him? Don't buy it.

 

[Bevans]

The point and where this started is Dorion doesn't value this type of player. Im not talking about the senators right now and having Methot play for them. Clearly Methot wouldnt be playing in 2022. There were alternatives to retaining methot at the time. Including offering something to Vegas to take someone else or exposing ceci.

Dorion's GMing career is a laundry list of errors but if you were to grade GM's on how they did in the Vegas expansion draft, Dorion would be near the top.

Methot played 45 games post-expansion.

Exposing ceci over methot would be patently incorrect with the gift of hindsight.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

This is about as HF Boards as you can possibly go. Wild revisionist history and pure trust in advanced stats over actually watching and evaluating. You're saying the head of professional scouting who watched the player for years and was part of developing him had a less educated view of the player than a bunch of analytics peoeple that never watched him?

You don't think the deal had more to do with the type of player that was traded for him? An actual NHLer in Ty Smith on a cost controlled contract? Who was a much more highly touted prospect than anyone the sens had on the back end outside of Sanderson. Smith was a higher pick than anyone the sens were offering and had a way better NHL track record. If you are going to willfully ignore this and were putting on our tinfoil hats as to this being an internal error let's go deeper.

Its Quite the stretch. But let's say analytics has now surpassed the eye test of 100's of NHL games. (Which not a single NHL team is currently run) . You then go on to say that they should have spent 7th overall on what was barely a top 4 d man over a proven 40 scorer who is 24. No one makes that deal. No one has a crystal ball. You dont know if Marino fits in here as well as he does in NJ. Pittsburgh has a way better system and supporting cast than Ottawa. Why wouls you assume he would be better here than there?Plenty things to complain about that we actually know about.


So why wasn't he protected or valued and assets spent to retain him? Same concept. Dorion doesn't know how to evaluate this type of player.

Im
Confused. Are you saying Dorion didn’t go after Marino cuz Dorion couldn’t see he was good. Or are you say he did and couldn’t outbid New Jersey.

 

[Big Muddy]

1. From the list I would grab Jensen and send them their draft pick back.

2. and Send Branny plus a pick for Gavrikov.

1. I mentioned Jensen awhile back, but if we wait, he's also available in Free Agency.

2. "Pick" is kind of vague, but I'll assume its less than a 1st. And, that's probably light from our end. Gavrikov is another UFA this summer. So, if we want another LD for some reason (?), if we acquire one in free agency, we don't need to spend assets.

Hopefully the Senators will have a cogent plan for addressing our RD needs this offseason. Flailing around and throwing mud against the wall, especially with trade proposals that would occur this year (salvage the season would be the motivation presumably) sure seems like a losing strategy. Plan/strategy > reaction.

Note 1: The tweet said 20 names that will soon be available, so I am interpreting "soon" as this season. If you were talking about offseason moves, then yes this is a different animal and much better. After reviewing the article, I see it talked about between now and the trade deadline as well.

Note 2: You can go to CapFriendly and sort on UFA and defensemen anytime. No need to wait for some reporters "top 20 list".

 

[Micklebot]

The point and where this started is Dorion doesn't value this type of player. Im not talking about the senators right now and having Methot play for them. Clearly Methot wouldnt be playing in 2022. There were alternatives to retaining methot at the time. Including offering something to Vegas to take someone else or exposing ceci.

He did make some attempts at protecting Methot, however since we don't know what Vegas was asking for in terms of assets to not select Methot, it's hard to know how much Dorion did or didn't value Methot.

- We know he valued a 22 yr old Ceci more (that didn't turn out too well) who was supposed to be in their minds at least a defensive Dman.
- We also know Methot's post Ottawa career was not at all successful in part due to health reasons, does Dorion get credit for being weary of committing to 32 yr old defensive Dman with lots of hard miles on his body?

Dorion did go after Graves, he just got beat out by NJD, and he did sign Zub out of the KHL, he's also picked up a few defensive Dmen along the way (granted not higher end ones) in Hainsey, Gudbranson, Hamonic, Holden and J.Brown. Dorion also spent a lot of draft capital on Sanderson who many viewed as more of a defensive Dman, he did this over the more offensive minded alternative option Drysdale who played the right side, a position of organizational need and was generally viewed as the higher ranked of the two.

I'm not convinced Dorion doesn't value defensive Dmen, our pro scouting might not be particularly good at evaluating them, but Dorion seems to appreciate the need.

 

[Big Muddy]

He did make some attempts at protecting Methot, however since we don't know what Vegas was asking for in terms of assets to not select Methot, it's hard to know how much Dorion did or didn't value Methot.

- We know he valued a 22 yr old Ceci more (that didn't turn out too well) who was supposed to be in their minds at least a defensive Dman.
- We also know Methot's post Ottawa career was not at all successful in part due to health reasons, does Dorion get credit for being weary of committing to 32 yr old defensive Dman with lots of hard miles on his body?

Dorion did go after Graves, he just got beat out by NJD, and he did sign Zub out of the KHL, he's also picked up a few defensive Dmen along the way (granted not higher end ones) in Hainsey, Gudbranson, Hamonic, Holden and J.Brown. Dorion also spent a lot of draft capital on Sanderson who many viewed as more of a defensive Dman, he did this over the more offensive minded alternative option Drysdale who played the right side, a position of organizational need and was generally viewed as the higher ranked of the two.

I'm not convinced Dorion doesn't value defensive Dmen, our pro scouting might not be particularly good at evaluating them, but Dorion seems to appreciate the need.

I agree with most of what you said.

There's one thing I've thought of. Dorion's trades this summer were for forwards (Debrincat & Giroux) versus defense. Its hard to know what goes on behind closed doors, so its fair to say we don't know everything that was done, or not done. The Debrincat trade happened on July 8th, while the Marino trade happened after on July 18th. So, I wonder if Dorion was more focused on Debrincat & a forward versus a defenseman because its "possible" that Marino was still available and on the market when the Debrincat trade was being negotiated.

I guess you could say its just something that I wonder about. Inquiring minds want to know (to use a cliche).

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Because Pierre Dorion is the GM. He doesn't understand the concept of a quiet defensive D man. Same reason they're walking Zub to UFA. Same reason he didnt want to pay methot. He doesn't know what he is looking for because he doesn't understand the sport.

I agree he does under appreciate the value of more defense first defensemen like Methot or Zub. If he has recognized the need he has done nothing to fill it since Methot left. Same mistake again with Demelo although he is not at Methot/Zub level. I don't think relying on DJ's evals has helped him much in the last 3+ years either. We've had quite the parade in and out. We have also missed the boat on some serious upgrades to what we've iced.

I think I read Dorion was looking for less term (re Marino).. I may have that mixed up with someone else. If a top 4 RD is a priority .. as it has been I can't understand not paying up for a player like Marino. I 'd want the term .. you know he's going to be here for a bit. If prior bad moves (Zaitsev) scared Dorion away .. he'd never make another trade.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

He did make some attempts at protecting Methot, however since we don't know what Vegas was asking for in terms of assets to not select Methot, it's hard to know how much Dorion did or didn't value Methot.

- We know he valued a 22 yr old Ceci more (that didn't turn out too well) who was supposed to be in their minds at least a defensive Dman.
- We also know Methot's post Ottawa career was not at all successful in part due to health reasons, does Dorion get credit for being weary of committing to 32 yr old defensive Dman with lots of hard miles on his body?

Dorion did go after Graves, he just got beat out by NJD, and he did sign Zub out of the KHL, he's also picked up a few defensive Dmen along the way (granted not higher end ones) in Hainsey, Gudbranson, Hamonic, Holden and J.Brown. Dorion also spent a lot of draft capital on Sanderson who many viewed as more of a defensive Dman, he did this over the more offensive minded alternative option Drysdale who played the right side, a position of organizational need and was generally viewed as the higher ranked of the two.

I'm not convinced Dorion doesn't value defensive Dmen, our pro scouting might not be particularly good at evaluating them, but Dorion seems to appreciate the need.

So Maltsev and 2nd... Sounds expensive. How could he possibly go higher than that.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree with most of what you said.

There's one thing I've thought of. Dorion's trades this summer were for forwards (Debrincat & Giroux) versus defense. Its hard to know what goes on behind closed doors, so its fair to say we don't know everything that was done, or not done. The Debrincat trade happened on July 8th, while the Marino trade happened after on July 18th. So, I wonder if Dorion was more focused on Debrincat & a forward versus a defenseman because its "possible" that Marino was still available and on the market when the Debrincat trade was being negotiated.

I guess you could say its just something that I wonder about. Inquiring minds want to know (to use a cliche).

The most likely explanation on my mind is we were still locked on Chychrun as a target and Pens we're not willing to wait around.

If there's one thing that seems to afflict Dorion, it's a tendency to get tunnel vision.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think I read Dorion was looking for less term (re Marino).. I may have that mixed up with someone else. If a top 4 RD is a priority .. as it has been I can't understand not paying up for a player like Marino. I 'd want the term .. you know he's going to be here for a bit. If prior bad moves (Zaitsev) scared Dorion away .. he'd never make another trade.

I think I read that as well (guessing the news came from Garrioch?). I found it perplexing at the time.

Marino was 25 and had 5 years remaining on his contract. That seems like the kind of term you'd want versus not want. That suggests to me that Dorion and whomever else was providing input did not value Marino high enough and had enough doubt that made him not squeeze the trigger on the deal.

 

[Big Muddy]

1. The most likely explanation on my mind is we were still locked on Chychrun as a target and Pens we're not willing to wait around.

2. If there's one thing that seems to afflict Dorion, it's a tendency to get tunnel vision.

1. Yes, that's possible. I'm having trouble coming up with explanations in general.

2. Agree with that. The best example of that I think was the Duchene trade. Dorion was in hot pursuit of Duchene for quite some time. I never liked that deal because I did not think we were a serious Cup contender to be making that kind of trade. Cleverness is good, but patience is better. I've always liked that expression.

 

[Micklebot]

I think I read that as well (guessing the news came from Garrioch?). I found it perplexing at the time.

Marino was 25 and had 5 years remaining on his contract. That seems like the kind of term you'd want versus not want. That suggests to me that Dorion and whomever else was providing input did not value Marino high enough and had enough doubt that made him not squeeze the trigger on the deal.

It was Garrioch that mentioned the term scaring us away. We have two 1st Rd pick RHD prospects that will require waivers starting next year, and want to re-sign Zub. I think the team values the guys in our system more than fans, but who knows

 

[Big Muddy]

It was Garrioch that mentioned the term scaring us away. We have two 1st Rd pick RHD prospects that will require waivers starting next year, and want to re-sign Zub. I think the team values the guys in our system more than fans, but who knows

Regarding our 2 young RD prospects, it could be that Dorion thought they could graduate and become full-time NHLers. Having said that, was he convinced they had a legit 2nd pair RD? I guess we'll never know. Admittedly, I was also thinking or maybe hoping that we potentially had an "in-house" solution. A little extra insurance & depth at RD would have been nice. We needed to find out what we had in our 2 RD prospects, but there's probably different ways of going about that.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

A few things to watch:

1) With Duclair returning, Florida must trade at least $3m off of their cap. Potential candidates:
- Duclair, Reinhart, Bennett, Hornqvist (8 team ntc, would require significant sweetener)
2) Chychrun is back in the game and will be dealt as soon as possible.
3) Connor Timmins is back healthy and may be dealt.

 

[Alex1234]

Try to pry Hronek from DET for Debrincat +

 

[bert]

Dorion's GMing career is a laundry list of errors but if you were to grade GM's on how they did in the Vegas expansion draft, Dorion would be near the top.

Methot played 45 games post-expansion.

Exposing ceci over methot would be patently incorrect with the gift of hindsight.

If you could predict Methots injury sure, not the performance both projected to provide. They still had to take Zaitsev back as a cap dump to get rid of Ceci who they now have to use assets to get rid of.

I think one of Dorions massive errors is quite clearly pro player evaluation its probably his biggest. He doesnt value this type of player. Hence walking Zub to UFA and not targeting a player like this in any offseason of his career as GM.

My first real taste of Dorion and how much I have always disliked him was during the Methot negotiations. Don Brennan wrote and article on what Methot is worth. Dorion came on the radio guns a blazing and sounded like A. He was trying way to hard B. unprofessional slandering Methot and Brennan for the article . He clearly doesnt value this type of player.

 

[bert]

Im
Confused. Are you saying Dorion didn’t go after Marino cuz Dorion couldn’t see he was good. Or are you say he did and couldn’t outbid New Jersey.

I think the hypothetical that the sens could have outbid Jersey for Marino isnt really accurate without saying 'I would have traded 7th OA for barely a number 4 d man last year' with hind sight. Thats what has been projected by a few posters. Not necessarily Dorion. I dont think at any point the sens had the rigth asset that should have been available to outbid New Jersey at the time of the deal.

I dont think Dorion values this type of player. His history of player aquisitions (none) and squandering smart defensive D men speaks to this. Demelo for example. Quite clearly an effective but quiet player.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

If you could predict Methots injury sure, not the performance both projected to provide. They still had to take Zaitsev back as a cap dump to get rid of Ceci who they now have to use assets to get rid of.

I think one of Dorions massive errors is quite clearly pro player evaluation its probably his biggest. He doesnt value this type of player. Hence walking Zub to UFA and not targeting a player like this in any offseason of his career as GM.

My first real taste of Dorion and how much I have always disliked him was during the Methot negotiations. Don Brennan wrote and article on what Methot is worth. Dorion came on the radio guns a blazing and sounded like A. He was trying way to hard B. unprofessional slandering Methot and Brennan for the article . He clearly doesnt value this type of player.

Injuries take place at a time and place / circumstance... Because he was injured when playing for Dallas.. does not mean he'd be injured at another time and place. This kind of stuff keeps coming up.. well Connor Brown was injured lucky we don't have him ...

 

[Golden_Jet]

This is about as HF Boards as you can possibly go. Wild revisionist history and pure trust in advanced stats over actually watching and evaluating. You're saying the head of professional scouting who watched the player for years and was part of developing him had a less educated view of the player than a bunch of analytics peoeple that never watched him?

You don't think the deal had more to do with the type of player that was traded for him? An actual NHLer in Ty Smith on a cost controlled contract? Who was a much more highly touted prospect than anyone the sens had on the back end outside of Sanderson. Smith was a higher pick than anyone the sens were offering and had a way better NHL track record. If you are going to willfully ignore this and were putting on our tinfoil hats as to this being an internal error let's go deeper.

Its Quite the stretch. But let's say analytics has now surpassed the eye test of 100's of NHL games. (Which not a single NHL team is currently run) . You then go on to say that they should have spent 7th overall on what was barely a top 4 d man over a proven 40 scorer who is 24. No one makes that deal. No one has a crystal ball. You dont know if Marino fits in here as well as he does in NJ. Pittsburgh has a way better system and supporting cast than Ottawa. Why wouls you assume he would be better here than there?Plenty things to complain about that we actually know about.


So why wasn't he protected or valued and assets spent to retain him? Same concept. Dorion doesn't know how to evaluate this type of player.

He wasn’t protected because Dion wouldn’t waive his NTC, and only played another 45 games in his career.
But I’m sure you were aware of that,
Looks like it ended up working out for the Sens.

If you could predict Methots injury sure, not the performance both projected to provide. They still had to take Zaitsev back as a cap dump to get rid of Ceci who they now have to use assets to get rid of.

I think one of Dorions massive errors is quite clearly pro player evaluation its probably his biggest. He doesnt value this type of player. Hence walking Zub to UFA and not targeting a player like this in any offseason of his career as GM.

My first real taste of Dorion and how much I have always disliked him was during the Methot negotiations. Don Brennan wrote and article on what Methot is worth. Dorion came on the radio guns a blazing and sounded like A. He was trying way to hard B. unprofessional slandering Methot and Brennan for the article . He clearly doesnt value this type of player.

Lol at mentioning Brennan , with anything to do with sports, can’t even put a sentence together barely.