HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #88: 2024 Off-Season Thread

[Mrb1p]

Would you trade Mailloux+ 2nd for Askarov?

Yes I would, why would they? We could turn around and trade Primeau, Dobes and Fowler for picks later.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I’m neutral to a Seider OS, but why Seider wouldn’t be interested ? Yzerman is notorious to be a hard ass in negotiations. Look at Stamkos in Tampa couple years ago. Other players from the lightning have said that he will try to squeeze you under market value. He did the same to Larkin his current captain.

Training camp starts in a few weeks and both Seider and Raymond are unsigned.

If we offer Seider 11M/year and Yzerman won’t budge at 8M, over the course of 8 years that’s 24M$. Would Seider leave 24M$ on the table on his first big contract?

And from a sporting POV he’s playing with Chariot in Detroit, he’d play with Guhle or Hutson here. 24M$ more and Guhle/Hutson as his long-term partner. And living in Montreal > living in Detroit.

I think he would sign that OS in no time.



Nashville would be the one adding to Askarov to get Mailloux.

In that case Seider might accept the offer sheet. Of course Yzerman is likely to match any offer sheet.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Why are we talking about offersheeting Seider 11+ M and giving up four 1st round picks? It makes no sense on so many levels.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Yes I would, why would they? We could turn around and trade Primeau, Dobes and Fowler for picks later.

They should but who knows if they have any idea of value. Habs should not offer it. Why would they want a goaltender they don't need and give up a player they do need.

 

[LaP]

Yes I would, why would they? We could turn around and trade Primeau, Dobes and Fowler for picks later.

No that's too much for a goalie prospect. Historically goalies whatever they are prospect or established are worth less than position players.

 

[red devil]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1825368412777787549

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

How long do Oilers have to match the offer sheets? The Ceci trade is an interesting turn of events. I would think that they are on the clock somehow.

 

[Miller Time]

You would need to unload a whole prospect pool to acquire those players before they turn 30 and even then not sure that'd be enough.

Yup... About as realistic as the Habs getting Seider signed to an OS

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Ceci Sucks and Broberg isnt even that good.
Sounds like a meh move. Oilers Def still complete dogshit

 

[vokiel]

How long do Oilers have to match the offer sheets? The Ceci trade is an interesting turn of events. I would think that they are on the clock somehow.

I read from the trade board that it's one week from the signing.

 

[Miller Time]

True, but your concern was burning bridges. Which I took to mean that it would eliminate any future contact with the RedWings.

Burnt bridges can be rebuilt... I dont think any situation would "eliminate any future contact" btw two clubs (though I suspect some GMs may well hold such grudges as to refuse to deal with each other... But that kind of immaturity doesn't seem to fit either KH or Yzerman)

I'll give you this. That would be considered an "asshole" move. That could cause future ramifications. My reasoning for doing it would be to improve our team. Sadly there would probably be some hurt feelings along the way.

How would a failed OS improve our team? (Premise I replied to was an OS we know will be matched just to Tie up wings cap at higher $)

Yes, that is the ideal way to do things. It's a business though, so I like looking at all my options. Some may be pleasant, some not so much.

Absolutely. KH & Gorton seem to be bigger picture thinkers, and have shown no hesitation to accept unpleasant options in implementing their vision (like accommodating players where possible, even at unpleasant short term "cost" of not maximizing immediate return, which some fans don't like... )

Agreed, but everything he's shown so far, shows he's heading in that direction. To have a shot at getting him. You'd have to pay above market value.

Sure. But the premise wasn't about "getting him" it was about forcing Red Wings to pay more than they want to keep him.

As good as he is, I don't think he's worth pursuing at any cost necessary to get him.

An OS that Red Wings wouldn't match, would likely be at a cap hit we shouldn't offer either. Hence my point that the whole premise is unrealistic... If the Red Wings were in the Oilers situation (or the Stars with Harley), them count me in to use the OS to legitimately try to get a player like that...

I'm a big proponent of OS in general. This specific premise was just unrealistic and of poorly considered strategic value.

Oh they do, especially since they've made Salaries available for everyone to see. In saying that, do you not think players pay attention to improvements made by management? Would the players be happy if they didn't try to improve the team. Just so they can keep within a certain financial limit?

I don't think it's either/or.

But I do think that they are selling the young core on their commitment to build a sustainable cup contending roster... And have been successful thus far getting long term commitments at very team friendly terms as a result. Giving an external RFA a massive premium on a similar long term deal would run the risk of rubbing that same young core the wrong way, and make it unlikely future internal RFAs accept anything less than market premium. I suspect the Blues may face this issue next summer with any of their in house RFAs that have a good year... "Fortunately" for them, they don't have any blue chip prospects to worry about.

If it were just about "improving the team", they could've spent on July 1st... Re-signed/not traded Monahan... Trade picks/prospects for immediate help etc. we'll see very quickly this season how bought in our core is with how mnmgt approached the offseason. I suspect we'll see continued buy in even if the team struggles.

Yes it's commendable that they were able to do that for such a long period of time. But do you think they'd say "Meh Leon Draisaitl wants to sign with us" "But he'd make more than Marchand/Pastrnak, so we'll have to pass". If the right situation arises, things change.

UFA & RFA are different situations. Players and agents get that even if some fans don't appreciate the nuances.

Here I'll speak from personal experience... Athletes generally get the business side of pro sports (especially the more successful ones), and when it comes to comparing contract outcomes & demands, precedence of similar situations matters, a lot. It's far easier to ignore a $ discrepancy when the context doesn't apply to you. When you view a similar player situation handled completely differently, it's easy to feel disrespected, and that matters a lot more than fans tend to realize...

Yes, there might be some resentment. The bottom line is, these players want to win. So I'd hope they'd be more concerned with that. Then if they got enough on their latest contract.

As the lafs have shown, paying market premiums for outside elite talent is no guarantee of winning... Bs won more with guys taking less than Laffs have landing top dollar FA & having to pay in house talent accordingly.

I think the players that have signed long term want to win and believe in the plan KH laid out for how we'll get there... Worst thing he could do would be to go off script chasing an unrealistic OS, especially (as the premise of my response was about) for the purpose of getting a rival team to spend a marginal amount more in cap rather than actually improving our roster.

They'd be left with no Seider and no credibility in making a case for next wave of RFA's to fall in line with the examples set by CC/Slaf/Suzuki/Guhle.

Yes I can see it, if you had two players currently on the team, who were valued equally. Yet one was paid more than the other. In the case of adding a player who makes more money, too improve the team. I would hope the players would understand, and not sulk over it.

Agree... If talking UFA
But RFA context is a different given the team control. Completely different negotiation context.

They could look at it like that. If their only concern was for themselves. Or they could look at it as management is doing all they can to improve the team.

Any reasonably informed athlete in a cap system knows that managing the cap is crucial to winning.

OS Seider isn't a net addition, there's a significant cost of acquisition there, one that includes shedding roster depth now (5-6M would need to be cut, likely with further pick cost to do so).

At a cap hit the red Wings would actually decline, I don't think we'd be improved in our goal of building a contender/winning a cup.

So in other words, we should forget about adding a player who will make more money than Suzuki? Which would limit our team to how well Suzuki does. If RB, Hutson & Demidov all hit their potential, they will get paid. Also who's to say that all or any of them will follow the trend set by Suzuki?

Nope. That's a silly premise.

Sticking to the plan set out, the one several of your young core committed long term to, on the other hand, is how you build a sustainable culture of excellence... The kind where players are more likely to follow the trend set by the core leaders. Again, Boston is a good example of that.
Pats during Brady's prime & Chiefs currently under Mahomes, Spurs with Duncan/Parker/Ginobili...

It's the exception rather than the rule because it's very hard to execute and inevitably some great talent ends up leaving... But to build sustainable excellence in a cap system, you pretty much need to get that kind of core buy- in. Habs appear to be following that formula very well, and appear to have the kind of patience required to see it through... Many fans will protest and complain (as we've seen all summer lol) but the point is to build a winner, not to win a popularity contest.

No organization, whether it be an NHL team, Microsoft or your local mom and pop pizza shop. Will follow a long term plan to the letter. There are always going to be issues or factors that force you to alter your plans. I'd be quite surprised if HuGo's long term plan, is set in stone. Without allowing for some flexibility.

Sure. But flexibility is not the same as going off script.
Most organizations don't have the discipline to stay the course... That's why in every sport and industry there are outliers who enjoy outsized success vis a vis their relative tangible competitive advantages.

Excellence is about doing the simple, basic, boring things better and more consistently than everyone else... And that kind of discipline is so rare that it's hard to recognize.

Since HuGo hasn't done this. It's me that's throwing darts at the dart board. I made the decision based on my little knowledge of Seider. Where if HuGo were to follow that route. I'm sure a lot more time, thought and effort, would be put into the decision.

Agreed

Yes, and I agree with you. I"ve already said it's an asshole move, that really doesn't accomplish anything positive. Except maybe putting the Wings in a tight situation financially.

My point of making the OS to Seider is to get him.

Ok. And from what you know of Seider and of the Red Wings cap & roster/prospect situation, what OS # do you think it takes for him to sign and the red Wings not match?

The premise of 11M as an asshole move to bump up the Wings cap charge was what I called out as unrealistic from every perspective. It's a silly & self-defeating idea that, fortunately, would be completely out of character to the current leadership group.

The premise of an OS that actually gets us the player is a different question...

I think OS are a tool every GM should be ready to use. When MB bungled the Aho OS, the issue was precisely that he made an offer easily and obviously matched (apparently from some misguided idea the Canes owner couldn't/wouldn't match for cash flow reasons IIRC)

I have a hard time seeing the Wings balk at any number that wouldn't also be stupid for us to pay him (plus the 4*1st cost, the first of which might well still be a lottery pick even with Seider in house when you consider our roster as is would have to trim another 5-6M$ by opening day)...

Curious what # you think works?

 

[ReHabs]

I would be open to big money OSs if it includes picks from after the coming 2025 Draft.

At our current trajectory we’re going to be drafting top5-10 again because Hughes seems to have decided to punt yet another season.

Btw the price to unload Ceci was very cheap, let that be a lesson: even the corporate owned SJ Sharks will spend money. The talk of saving Molson’s money is not just unjustified but grotesque.

 

[Miller Time]

I would be open to big money OSs if it includes picks from after the coming 2025 Draft.

At our current trajectory we’re going to be drafting top5-10 again because Hughes seems to have decided to punt yet another season.

Btw the price to unload Ceci was very cheap, let that be a lesson: even the corporate owned SJ Sharks will spend money. The talk of saving Molson’s money is not just unjustified but grotesque.

Ceci legitimately becomes the Sharks #1RD, they sent a 950k contract the other way & he will likely be flipped before the deadline, further reducing their cost for buying the 3rd & whatever deadline assets they can squeeze out of him.

It's silly to suggest the Habs didn't target him for $ reasons... Almost as silly as this nonsense "punted season" narrative.

 

[Egresch]

How long do Oilers have to match the offer sheets? The Ceci trade is an interesting turn of events. I would think that they are on the clock somehow.

I have a feeling EDM will let go both Holloway and Broberg. They just acquired Podkolzin who could replace Holloway and got rid of Ceci. It cost them 3rd and 4th. They can get 2nd and 3rd as compensation. Trade that 2nd for someone like Struble and use cap space to address their needs at TDL.
Holloway, Broberg, Ceci, 4th
for
Podkolzin, Struble and ton of cap space

 

[Whalers Fan]

Would you trade Mailloux+ 2nd for Askarov?

No.

 

[ReHabs]

Ceci legitimately becomes the Sharks #1RD, they sent a 950k contract the other way & he will likely be flipped before the deadline, further reducing their cost for buying the 3rd & whatever deadline assets they can squeeze out of him.

Ceci is a bad player and SJS are the worst team in the league. They got him as a cap dump at a price they deemed worthwhile, there's not much to look into there.

It's silly to suggest the Habs didn't target him for $ reasons... Almost as silly as this nonsense "punted season" narrative.

My assertion is there is no restriction on the Habs' spending but every so often someone devises a narrative that the Habs aren't spending because Molson is in the way. Which has no grounded in any sort of truth.

As for the punted season -- the two previous offseasons saw Hughes make a substantial add to the roster, but this year he has not. That's a punt so far. Maybe such a move will happen or maybe it won't but we can't assume anything.

 

[therocket9]

I wouldn't. Not because it's an unfair offer. We have so many good young prospects. So IMO there is no need to add Askarov.

Askarov at least has the potential to be a #1 as long as Montembeault is your starting goalie you are never making the playoffs.

 

[HABitual Fan]

Askarov at least has the potential to be a #1 as long as Montembeault is your starting goalie you are never making the playoffs.

If Askarov is so good, why did Nashville block his path to the NHL starter spot ? Too much of a red flag there. Would be the equivalent of Dobes lighting up the AHL which Askarov has not and the Habs signing Montembault long-term instead of committing to Dobes.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If Askarov is so good, why did Nashville block his path to the NHL starter spot ? Too much of a red flag there. Would be the equivalent of Dobes lighting up the AHL which Askarov has not and the Habs signing Montembault long-term instead of committing to Dobes.

Because they got an ownership mandate to start winning now - hence the moves they've made this off-season. You are going to keep Saros to compete now vs. break in a rookie goalie.

 

[Deus ex machina]

I have a feeling EDM will let go both Holloway and Broberg. They just acquired Podkolzin who could replace Holloway and got rid of Ceci. It cost them 3rd and 4th. They can get 2nd and 3rd as compensation. Trade that 2nd for someone like Struble and use cap space to address their needs at TDL.
Holloway, Broberg, Ceci, 4th
for
Podkolzin, Struble and ton of cap space

It's a bit weird that they traded Ceci now if they didn't intend to keep at least one of Holloway or Broberg. But anything is possible, i guess.

Habs won't trade Struble for a 2nd.

 

[Mrb1p]

I would've liked to gamble on Podz for a 4th

 

[Vachon23]

If Askarov is so good, why did Nashville block his path to the NHL starter spot ? Too much of a red flag there. Would be the equivalent of Dobes lighting up the AHL which Askarov has not and the Habs signing Montembault long-term instead of committing to Dobes.

Not really since Saros is elite what Monty is not and Nashville are in a win now situation what we’re not

For the Mailloux vs Askarov thing, even I though I’m not a big Mailloux fan who I think he’s a bigger Nathan Beaulieu with a better shot (player with some very nice tools but no toolbox) and Askarov is my favorite goalie prospect, I’m not sure I would trade a RD prospect with upside for a goalie prospect.

At the end of the day I’m probably doing it if I have that offer on the table but it would take a massive reflection and a lot of information on Askarov

 

[WeThreeKings]

Not really since Saros is elite what Monty is not and Nashville are in a win now situation what we’re not

For the Mailloux vs Askarov thing, even I though I’m not a big Mailloux fan who I think he’s a bigger Nathan Beaulieu with a better shot (player with some very nice tools but no toolbox) and Askarov is my favorite goalie prospect, I’m not sure I would trade a RD prospect with upside for a goalie prospect.

At the end of the day I’m probably doing it if I have that offer on the table but it would take a massive reflection and a lot of information on Askarov

If we didn't have Fowler, Dobes and Volokhin, I might feel differently.. but we do, so I don't. I wouldn't trade Mailloux for Askarov.

 

[Vachon23]

If we didn't have Fowler, Dobes and Volokhin, I might feel differently.. but we do, so I don't. I wouldn't trade Mailloux for Askarov.

That’s what make me hesitant but at the same time, I have no guarantee any of those guy will succeed and if they do it’s gonna take 3-4 years where we will need at #2 goalie

 

[WeThreeKings]

That’s what make me hesitant but at the same time, I have no guarantee any of those guy will succeed and if they do it’s gonna take 3-4 years where we will need at #2 goalie

It's still a RD with size for a goalie. If we didn't have those guys, I'd be doing it.. but last thing that looks good is Mailloux being a major hit and Fowler becoming a legit 1.