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GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread

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SeaOfBlue said:
The Leafs can solve their cap squeeze, which is not even an issue for at least another month, without having to sacrifice defensive depth. Holl's regression is not severe enough to move him without getting a very worthwhile return, nor are all of those factors to suddenly put Liljegren over Holl after such a small sample size.

My guess is the Leafs don't even entertain an offer that doesn't exceed a 2nd round pick in value, and the Leafs will need to receive a quality #7, either directly or indirectly, as well.

Maybe that is Nick Ritchie for Will Butcher, if the Leafs are suddenly in the market of making decisions based on small sample sizes. Or more likely, the Leafs move Engvall, which opens up room for Mikheyev and opens up the cap space. Engvall has looked good enough where he should get a legit return, but I don't know if the Leafs really see a long term future for him here, especially with the number of other guys they have coming up behind him.
Click to expand...

I've posted this basic premise a couple of times the last few days... 22 man roster, $1.5 mil under the cap after this...

Trades

1.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
CBJ

  1. Holl, Justin
2.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. Crouse, Lawson
  2. Lyubushkin, Ilya ($675,000 retained)
ARI

  1. Ritchie, Nick
  2. Der-Arguchintsev, Semyon or other prospect
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
 
Fogelhund said:
Between Holl's play regressing, Lily showing he can play, and a cap squeeze forcing their hand... yes.
Click to expand...

It's been more Muzzin's play regressing than it was Holl's. Without Muzzin there to carry the load, Holl was quickly exposed, just as he had been every time Muzzin was injured it the past.
 
Fogelhund said:
I've posted this basic premise a couple of times the last few days... 22 man roster, $1.5 mil under the cap after this...

Trades

1.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
CBJ

  1. Holl, Justin
2.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. Crouse, Lawson
  2. Lyubushkin, Ilya ($675,000 retained)
ARI

  1. Ritchie, Nick
  2. Der-Arguchintsev, Semyon or other prospect
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
Click to expand...

Holl > Lyubushkin
Ritchie >= Crouse

So we are paying a prospect and downgrading at least our defensive depth to dump cap? On top of that, we still need to make room for Mikheyev in the lineup, so are we sitting/trading Engvall? Simmonds? Crouse? Same issue as what we have right now, except instead of waiving them because we don't have cap room, they are sitting in the press box.

Seems easier to just trade Engvall, who probably has a market, or (in a worst case scenario) waive Ritchie to open up cap space and a roster spot for Mikheyev when he comes back than to downgrade Holl and give up a prospect. 500k in cap space if you move Engvall, same roster construction as we have right now.
 
SeaOfBlue said:
Holl > Lyubushkin
Ritchie >= Crouse

So we are paying a prospect and downgrading at least our defensive depth to dump cap? On top of that, we still need to make room for Mikheyev in the lineup, so are we sitting/trading Engvall? Simmonds? Crouse? Same issue as what we have right now, except instead of waiving them because we don't have cap room, they are sitting in the press box.

Seems easier to just trade Engvall, who probably has a market, or (in a worst case scenario) waive Ritchie to open up cap space and a roster spot for Mikheyev when he comes back than to downgrade Holl and give up a prospect. 500k in cap space if you move Engvall, same roster construction as we have right now.
Click to expand...

Id take Crouse over Ritchie in a heartbeat
 
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Fogelhund said:
I've posted this basic premise a couple of times the last few days... 22 man roster, $1.5 mil under the cap after this...

Trades

1.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
CBJ

  1. Holl, Justin
2.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. Crouse, Lawson
  2. Lyubushkin, Ilya ($675,000 retained)
ARI

  1. Ritchie, Nick
  2. Der-Arguchintsev, Semyon or other prospect
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
Click to expand...

I don't mind Lyubushkin as a bottom-pairing guy. Very low-event player, who can PK and hits a lot.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
Holl > Lyubushkin
Ritchie >= Crouse

So we are paying a prospect and downgrading at least our defensive depth to dump cap? On top of that, we still need to make room for Mikheyev in the lineup, so are we sitting/trading Engvall? Simmonds? Crouse? Same issue as what we have right now, except instead of waiving them because we don't have cap room, they are sitting in the press box.

Seems easier to just trade Engvall, who probably has a market, or (in a worst case scenario) waive Ritchie to open up cap space and a roster spot for Mikheyev when he comes back than to downgrade Holl and give up a prospect. 500k in cap space if you move Engvall, same roster construction as we have right now.
Click to expand...


Look, I'm going off the rumour, that we are moving someone on D, and I'm guessing here it's Holl. This is only based upon us moving Holl already... what this does is brings back defensive depth, not downgrading it.

So you think it makes sense to trade away Engvall, so downgrading our offensive depth, and not unsubstantially instead?

Yes, we'd have someone in the press box, probably on rotation. This is how most teams, including the Leafs have operated in the past. It creates competition, let's people rest when they need. Are you really that concerned about giving up a prospect in SDA?

I know it's very small sample set... but from what I've seen of Crouse, and Ritchie so far... I'd rather have Crouse... plus it gets us under the cap, and gives us room to make further moves later in the year.
 
Phion Keneuf said:
Id take Crouse over Ritchie in a heartbeat
Click to expand...

Go back 2-3 years on this board and see the stuff that was said about Ritchie when he was on Anaheim and it is literally a carbon copy of what has been said about Crouse at the same age.

- Power forward who plays physical.
- Former high draft pick who is struggling to really stand out and get playing time, but has a ton of upside (mostly because of draft position).
- Concerns about skating ability and high end skill to be anything more than complimentary players with skilled guys.
- No real defensive value.

People just like the shiny new toy on the other team, but I will bet that as soon as Crouse gets here, he looks the exact same as Ritchie would, if not worse because Ritchie at least had some kind of sustainable success before getting here. He would be more likely relegated to the role Ritchie is in right now than figuring it out... Ritchie has a much better chance of figuring it out.
 
Last edited:
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Fogelhund said:
I've posted this basic premise a couple of times the last few days... 22 man roster, $1.5 mil under the cap after this...

Trades

1.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
CBJ

  1. Holl, Justin
2.
edit.svg

TOR

  1. Crouse, Lawson
  2. Lyubushkin, Ilya ($675,000 retained)
ARI

  1. Ritchie, Nick
  2. Der-Arguchintsev, Semyon or other prospect
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (Some team)
Click to expand...
Holl still has a year of term after this at $2 mil. Seeing that he's been used as a top 4 guy with decent success up until just a few games ago I'm wondering if we can't pry away a late first from someone.
 
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Fogelhund said:
Look, I'm going off the rumour, that we are moving someone on D, and I'm guessing here it's Holl. This is only based upon us moving Holl already... what this does is brings back defensive depth, not downgrading it.

So you think it makes sense to trade away Engvall, so downgrading our offensive depth, and not unsubstantially instead?

Yes, we'd have someone in the press box, probably on rotation. This is how most teams, including the Leafs have operated in the past. It creates competition, let's people rest when they need. Are you really that concerned about giving up a prospect in SDA?

I know it's very small sample set... but from what I've seen of Crouse, and Ritchie so far... I'd rather have Crouse... plus it gets us under the cap, and gives us room to make further moves later in the year.
Click to expand...

Lyubushkin is much worse than Holl, so you are downgrading our defensive depth.

As I said before, the Leafs have a lot more offensive depth at this point than defensive depth. If we suffer an injury, we have a number of guys on the Marlies who can fill in (Semyonov, Anderson, etc.), especially in a bottom 6 role. If we suffer an injury, even on the bottom pairing, that is a lot tougher to replace than a guy in our bottom 6.

If you want a rotation, give Semyonov and Anderson their much deserved opportunities in the NHL... Or give Seney, Robertson (when healthy), etc. a chance. Of course, Amadio and Brooks could also easily end up back here as well once Montreal and Vegas start getting bodies back, and that is even more potential depth up front. We can live without Engvall as an extra a lot easier than Holl/Dermott.

I would move a prospect like SDA if it leaves us in a better spot. We aren't in a better spot anywhere except in terms of accruing cap, which does nothing for us unless we are going for a big fish rental at the TDL, and quite frankly, that is the last thing this team needs right now. Accruing cap is certainly not worth the price you would have to pay to make this deal happen.
 
SeaOfBlue said:
Lyubushkin is much worse than Holl, so you are downgrading our defensive depth.

As I said before, the Leafs have a lot more offensive depth at this point than defensive depth. If we suffer an injury, we have a number of guys on the Marlies who can fill in (Semyonov, Anderson, etc.), especially in a bottom 6 role. If we suffer an injury, even on the bottom pairing, that is a lot tougher to replace than a guy in our bottom 6.

If you want a rotation, give Semyonov and Anderson their much deserved opportunities in the NHL... Or give Seney, Robertson (when healthy), etc. a chance. Of course, Amadio and Brooks could also easily end up back here as well once Montreal and Vegas start getting bodies back, and that is even more potential depth up front. We can live without Engvall as an extra a lot easier than Holl/Dermott.

I would move a prospect like SDA if it leaves us in a better spot. We aren't in a better spot anywhere except in terms of accruing cap, which does nothing for us unless we are going for a big fish rental at the TDL, and quite frankly, that is the last thing this team needs right now. Accruing cap is certainly not worth the price you would have to pay to make this deal happen.
Click to expand...

I think you are missing the point.

The assumption is Holl was moved already.

If Holl has been moved, and then you bring in Lyubushkin, has the depth not been increased post Holl trade?
 
Fogelhund said:
I think you are missing the point.

The assumption is Holl was moved already.

If Holl has been moved, and then you bring in Lyubushkin, has the depth not been increased post Holl trade?
Click to expand...

I am challenging that assumption. The rumour does not say the Leafs are guaranteed to move either of them. I think they need to find a proper return for Holl/Dermott AND an equally digestable price for a depth defenseman... Otherwise neither happens.

Therefore, if the result is as you proposed, then I don't think Holl/Dermott gets moved at all.

When you don't look at the proposal independently, you get a net return of a likely downgrade on Ritchie, a downgrade on Holl, a loss of a prospect and the only thing you get in return is a bunch of cap space which can accrue, but I am not putting a high value on that at all. I don't see the Leafs making a huge splash in the rental market again, and I am not sure the Leafs are in the position to add a large contract with term in the middle of the year. So that cap space really does not possess a ton of value for the Leafs, as at best you can only sell it off for a 4th or 5th round pick at the TDL (and buy it at the same rate).
 
If the Leafs are shopping Holl or Dermott I doubt it’s just for assets. They probably want to position themselves to find an upgrade up front
 
If the Leafs fall flat again and need to shake things up, Marner to Buffalo seems more plausible. They have the cap spaces and assets to make it happen.

Tuch, Marner and one of Krebs, Middestadt, or Cozens could be a decent line.
 
What level of Asset could the package of pieces below get?

Justin Holl, Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Ritchie, Roni Hirvonen, Mikhail Abramov, leaf 2022 picks

Obviously not going to be trading all those assets but for the below names, would those be expandable assets that would be desired by opposing teams?

David Perron (expiring UFA, elite player the last 4 years or so. Trouble being the blues are 1st in the central at the moment)

Andrea Burakovsky (Think he is a UFA as well, is a 50-60 point winger. Avs had a poor start. If they continue to play poorly perhaps around game 30-40 they look to shake up the team and get more depth pieces)

Jef Carter (Pens are in an insanely competitive division and have fallen behind early on. Crosby has been injured most of the year and now is out with COVID, while Malkin isn't back until December at the earliest. If they are last or 2nd last around New year's, they could make him an option as he is an expiring UFA. He might have an NMC but we have Spezza, and JT who could perhaps convince him to come here)

Rickard Rakell (rental, who has had down years basically since 2019 onwards. He has skill and talent but the cost shouldn't be more than a conditional 1st and a C prospect in my opinion)

These are four targets I think the leafs could possibly be after should the team continue to perform well and those other teams find themselves as sellers (which besides the ducks, none are at the moment)
 
hamzarocks said:
What level of Asset could the package of pieces below get?

Justin Holl, Ilya Mikheyev, Nick Ritchie, Roni Hirvonen, Mikhail Abramov, leaf 2022 picks

Obviously not going to be trading all those assets but for the below names, would those be expandable assets that would be desired by opposing teams?

David Perron (expiring UFA, elite player the last 4 years or so. Trouble being the blues are 1st in the central at the moment)

Andrea Burakovsky (Think he is a UFA as well, is a 50-60 point winger. Avs had a poor start. If they continue to play poorly perhaps around game 30-40 they look to shake up the team and get more depth pieces)

Jef Carter (Pens are in an insanely competitive division and have fallen behind early on. Crosby has been injured most of the year and now is out with COVID, while Malkin isn't back until December at the earliest. If they are last or 2nd last around New year's, they could make him an option as he is an expiring UFA. He might have an NMC but we have Spezza, and JT who could perhaps convince him to come here)

Rickard Rakell (rental, who has had down years basically since 2019 onwards. He has skill and talent but the cost shouldn't be more than a conditional 1st and a C prospect in my opinion)

These are four targets I think the leafs could possibly be after should the team continue to perform well and those other teams find themselves as sellers (which besides the ducks, none are at the moment)
Click to expand...

All decent and I'd expect we can grab at least one of those guys with the assets you've identified here.
 
Rakell: 2nd (becomes first if Leafs make finals), Hirvonen and Ritchie
Burakovsky: Mikheyev + 1st
Carter: Abramov + 3rd
Perron: 1st + Hirvonen
 
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