GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread

[hockeynorth]

No bloody way I'm trading our 1st for a rental this year. Deep draft and our prospect pool is bottom 5 once Lilly and Sandin graduate.

yes I don't want to deal the first

 

[Gary Nylund]

No bloody way I'm trading our 1st for a rental this year. Deep draft and our prospect pool is bottom 5 once Lilly and Sandin graduate.

Agreed. I'm still pissed at Dubas for trading our 1st last season. Look at Sandin and Liljegren to see what draft picks can do for us if you use them wisely. If he even thinks about trading our 1st for a rental I'd fire his ass and not think twice.

/rant

 

[showtime8]

I think if the Leafs are looking to make a trade, the Blues seem like a good fit.

Try to get some sort of package together that includes Robert Bortuzzo coming back to play as the #7. Maybe try to get Sundqvist on a gamble given he's out for the year, but maybe St. Louis isn't looking to bring him back with the emergence of Kyrou/Neighbours/Thomas. Maybe they'd be willing to give up Barbashev?

 

[hockeynorth]

Reminder for everyone trashing our prospect pool or using them in trades:

Bluechipper: Niemela
A level: Robertson, Amirov, Knies (this one is borderline but I’d go yes)
B level: Abbruzesse, Kokkonen, Holmberg, Abramov, Steeves, Hirvonen,
C level: Tverberg, Miettinen, SDA, Ovchinnikov, Koster, Anderson, Gogolev, Voit, Rubins, Fusco, Hollowell, Woll, Scott, Ahktyamov, Kressler
D level: a bunch of other random guys i.e. Miller, Schingoethe, Peksa etc

that’s still a deep system

 

[jaric1862]

Listening to Kypreos today, he floated the idea of a deal surrounding Holl and Bortuzzo. I don't know how to feel about that, if there's any merit to Kyper's spitballing. He also mentioned Gudas and McNabb

 

[kb]

What does he think the price is, or he is being purposely vague? Is "not very high" mean they aren't asking for a 1st round pick?

The Leafs just paid Hallander to protect Dermott and Kerfoot (EDIT: Not Holl)... And even if they wanted to give Holl an opportunity elsewhere, they are going to ask for at least that much in return. And with the prices that similar RHD were going for in UFA just a few months ago, Holl should be going for a premium even with his struggle to start the season.

I really like Liljegren, but a lot of these "rumours" seem to suggest that the Leafs have changed their minds after a very short period of time. I thought Liljegren should have been given a top 6 job right from the start, but the Leafs did not think so themselves... Now they suddenly think they can move Holl after one rough 7 game stretch and one good 3 game stretch from Liljegren? After they were willing to protect him over guys like Kerfoot, McCann, and Dermott because it would have been tough for find a quality RD to replace him and Liljegren was obviously not a clear guarantee in their minds?

If this was February and things were the same as they are now, it would be different, but the Leafs are 10 games into their season right now... Seems a little bit soon to be completely changing their minds about guys like Holl and Ritchie (especially; although no mention about moving Ritchie right now) and even guys like Dermott.

It's more about cap compliance when Mikheyev comes back I believe. Liljegren's bonus is playing havoc with the cap.

Having said that, I would move a forward first. But the only one is Ritchie, which would not be a good look 11 games into a 2 year contract.

 

[meefer]

I think before you dump Ritchie, I think you try him in the top 6 with Tavares and Marner. We gave him 5 and a half games in a top 6, and for that entire time, he was a complimentary player who had nobody to compliment. I can guarantee that we did not pay him 2.5 mill per year to give up on him after effectively 5 games.

Mikheyev is going to be out for at least another month. We don't need to do anything until then. Ritchie should be given plenty of opportunities, and that is assuming we don't have any other injuries in that time.

I’ve argued the same for Ritchie to play with Tavares and Marner because of the relative skating skills. Mitch is easily the best skater, but has the ability to play at a slower pace (east/west, cutbacks) that allows Tavares to match spacing, something that was harder for him to do with Willy. Ritchie’s skating is closer to the speed at which those fellas offer when paired. I think it’s his best chance for success, he’d arrive on time.

 

[Kiwi]

I strongly argued to go for it last season, we pushed a lot of high value chips in and got nothing for it

It's time for the guys in the room to prove they deserve that type of investment by showing up in the playoffs and winning some rounds

But until then no thanks

 

[BlueForever75]

I would deal Holl and a forward (Kerfoot, Engvall, or Ritchie) for a tough as nails stay at home dman (RH). If it isnt Holl and it takes Dermott, I would do the same.

We need this in spot games, depending on opponent. And its a price probably less now then at the deadline.

 

[hockeynorth]

I would deal Holl and a forward (Kerfoot, Engvall, or Ritchie) for a tough as nails stay at home dman (RH). If it isnt Holl and it takes Dermott, I would do the same.

We need this in spot games, depending on opponent. And its a price probably less now then at the deadline.

I feel like a high energy forward is a bigger need than a nasty dman. I really want Trevor Moore back.

Robert Bortuzzo is a target though that I'd have

 

[Dreakmur]

I strongly argued to go for it last season, we pushed a lot of high value chips in and got nothing for it

It's time for the guys in the room to prove they deserve that type of investment by showing up in the playoffs and winning some rounds

But until then no thanks

I’m it sure I even disagree with you, but the window is closing on this group. We can’t just keep waiting. Every year the cap crunch gets worse. Every year the veterans slow down a little more. If we wait until next season, it’s almost certain that Kerfoot is gone to make room for Campbell’s raise. Muzzin seems to be aging poorly. Spezza might not be back.

 

[The Podium]

I’m it sure I even disagree with you, but the window is closing on this group. We can’t just keep waiting. Every year the cap crunch gets worse. Every year the veterans slow down a little more. If we wait until next season, it’s almost certain that Kerfoot is gone to make room for Campbell’s raise. Muzzin seems to be aging poorly. Spezza might not be back.

Like Pittsburgh and Tampa, this team hasnt hit the second waive of competitiveness. Unlike those 2 teams they havent had a deep run or cup win, but after a small dip they both came back to win back-to-back cups.

The window certainly isnt closing shut, but the first window of competitiveness is. 2024-2025 is primed to be a small set back year, as Muzzins expiring deal will almost certainly go towards re-signing Nylander and Matthews and the Leafs will be playing a top 4 D man short.

However, come 2025-2026 Tavares expiring deal will give them huge cap flexibility and is about the right time that all the promising late round Dubas picks are set to make the team as cheap ELCs. Similar to Tampa having Vasi, Sergachev, Point and Kucherov come in to supplement Stamkos and Hedman or Pittsburgh having Guentzel, Rust, Murray/Jarry.

Not to say the Leafs will hit on later round prospects in a similar way, but in a cap league there is waves of competitiveness sprinkled between years where the cap will strangle the teams ability to compete.

 

[hockeynorth]

Like Pittsburgh and Tampa, this team hasnt hit the second waive of competitiveness. Unlike those 2 teams they havent had a deep run or cup win, but after a small dip they both came back to win back-to-back cups.

The window certainly isnt closing shut, but the first window of competitiveness is. 2024-2025 is primed to be a small set back year, as Muzzins expiring deal will almost certainly go towards re-signing Nylander and Matthews and the Leafs will be playing a top 4 D man short.

However, come 2025-2026 Tavares expiring deal will give them huge cap flexibility and is about the right time that all the promising late round Dubas picks are set to make the team as cheap ELCs. Similar to Tampa having Vasi, Sergachev, Point and Kucherov come in to supplement Stamkos and Hedman or Pittsburgh having Guentzel, Rust, Murray/Jarry.

Not to say the Leafs will hit on later round prospects in a similar way, but in a cap league there is waves of competitiveness sprinkled between years where the cap will strangle the teams ability to be competitive.

By 2024-2025 we will have Rielly, Brodie, Sandin, Liljegren as solid top 4 dman, plus surprise guys like Kral, Kokkonen, Niemela, Koster or any random sign or trade.

Guys who should make our roster within the next 24 months:

Robertson - Middle 6 goal scoring, energy forward. Will be A LOT like when we added Kapanen to this roster
Amirov - Top 6 two way forward, with potential for even more, the biggest wild card. If he hits, that's another big game winger, but worst case scenario, we add two Kapanen level guys!
Kral - a rock solid big dman, I'm confident he'll be NHL calibre in extremely short order, though likely as a #5 stay at home type
Steeves - could be our next Brown/Hyman type, he's legit with wheels, energy and a shot. Could be on the roster by the end of the year
Abbruzzese - potential 3C so we could get cheaper there, the farthest away off this list
Niemela - wild card, but he's pacing unbelievably well. Like Amirov, he could be a BIG piece, top 3 dman type, but I'll hold off on getting ahead of myself. Regardless, he's great.
Kokkonen - another shut down dman, very very close to NHL ready, been playing pro for years already
Holmberg - 1C on his SHL team, should come over this season NHL ready or near NHL ready, will get games by end of next season

So that's 8 guys who will be on ELCs over the next few seasons who should be contributors, some won't make it, but we will also have some surprises. The next wave of Browns/Kapanens/Dermotts is coming, so cap will be available for the next deals.

 

[The Podium]

By 2024-2025 we will have Rielly, Brodie, Sandin, Liljegren as solid top 4 dman, plus surprise guys like Kral, Kokkonen, Niemela, Koster or any random sign or trade.

Guys who should make our roster within the next 24 months:

Robertson - Middle 6 goal scoring, energy forward. Will be A LOT like when we added Kapanen to this roster
Amirov - Top 6 two way forward, with potential for even more, the biggest wild card. If he hits, that's another big game winger, but worst case scenario, we add two Kapanen level guys!
Kral - a rock solid big dman, I'm confident he'll be NHL calibre in extremely short order, though likely as a #5 stay at home type
Steeves - could be our next Brown/Hyman type, he's legit with wheels, energy and a shot. Could be on the roster by the end of the year
Abbruzzese - potential 3C so we could get cheaper there, the farthest away off this list
Niemela - wild card, but he's pacing unbelievably well. Like Amirov, he could be a BIG piece, top 3 dman type, but I'll hold off on getting ahead of myself. Regardless, he's great.
Kokkonen - another shut down dman, very very close to NHL ready, been playing pro for years already
Holmberg - 1C on his SHL team, should come over this season NHL ready or near NHL ready, will get games by end of next season

So that's 8 guys who will be on ELCs over the next few seasons who should be contributors, some won't make it, but we will also have some surprises. The next wave of Browns/Kapanens/Dermotts is coming, so cap will be available for the next deals.

Ya, I was just looking at their long term cap situation, Dubas and co actually set this team up well.

Deals expiring at the right times to retain their best players, no money committed to marginal players that cannot be easily replaced.

I bet version 2 of the core/era will be incredible competitive with huge cap flexibility.

 

[4thline]

Like Pittsburgh and Tampa, this team hasnt hit the second waive of competitiveness. Unlike those 2 teams they havent had a deep run or cup win, but after a small dip they both came back to win back-to-back cups.

The window certainly isnt closing shut, but the first window of competitiveness is. 2024-2025 is primed to be a small set back year, as Muzzins expiring deal will almost certainly go towards re-signing Nylander and Matthews and the Leafs will be playing a top 4 D man short.

However, come 2025-2026 Tavares expiring deal will give them huge cap flexibility and is about the right time that all the promising late round Dubas picks are set to make the team as cheap ELCs. Similar to Tampa having Vasi, Sergachev, Point and Kucherov come in to supplement Stamkos and Hedman or Pittsburgh having Guentzel, Rust, Murray/Jarry.

Not to say the Leafs will hit on later round prospects in a similar way, but in a cap league there is waves of competitiveness sprinkled between years where the cap will strangle the teams ability to be competitive.

Though I'm sure if I agree with the details of your timeline, I was wanting to post about something similar after last night but there was nowhere it really fit well.

People's thinking is way too short term.Comparisons to Tampa made people in the offseason, but people seriously need to *look* at their history since Yzerman. The amount of roster turnover from the 2011 conference final to the 2015 cup final, and the down years in between. Then again from 15 to 18, and 18 to 20. Stamkos and Hedman were drafted 12 and 13 years ago. They didn't start with sustainable success until Kucherov/Palat/Johnson / Killorn came into the picture 5 years later. The didn't become TAMPA as we know them today, until Point/Cirelli/Cernak/Sergachev/Vasillevsky arrived on the scene drafted 5/6/7/8 years after Stamkos.

Now, we had a bit of a leg up having Rielly and Nylander in house before our two franchise guys were drafted, but the point stands. Rome wasn't built in a day. They whiffed on two top 10 picks, missed the window with an MVP calibre St. Louis playing with Stamkos and Hedman. But they stayed the course, built a good program, and the waves kept coming. Liljgren/Sandin is hopefully the start of our next wave, and it's potentially huge.

 

[hockeynorth]

Dermott/Holl + Ritchie for Connor Brown

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Though I'm sure if I agree with the details of your timeline, I was wanting to post about something similar after last night but there was nowhere it really fit well.

People's thinking is way too short term.Comparisons to Tampa made people in the offseason, but people seriously need to *look* at their history since Yzerman. The amount of roster turnover from the 2011 conference final to the 2015 cup final, and the down years in between. Then again from 15 to 18, and 18 to 20. Stamkos and Hedman were drafted 12 and 13 years ago. They didn't start with sustainable success until Kucherov/Palat/Johnson / Killorn came into the picture 5 years later. The didn't become TAMPA as we know them today, until Point/Cirelli/Cernak/Sergachev/Vasillevsky arrived on the scene drafted 5/6/7/8 years after Stamkos.

Now, we had a bit of a leg up having Rielly and Nylander in house before our two franchise guys were drafted, but the point stands. Rome wasn't built in a day. They whiffed on two top 10 picks, missed the window with an MVP calibre St. Louis playing with Stamkos and Hedman. But they stayed the course, built a good program, and the waves kept coming. Liljgren/Sandin is hopefully the start of our next wave, and it's potentially huge.

This is why it’s not worth arguing with the doomsday types. Tampa, Washington, St.Louis, etc., weren’t built overnight. The version of this team that plays for/wins a cup is still in process

 

[Dreakmur]

Like Pittsburgh and Tampa, this team hasnt hit the second waive of competitiveness. Unlike those 2 teams they havent had a deep run or cup win, but after a small dip they both came back to win back-to-back cups.

The window certainly isnt closing shut, but the first window of competitiveness is. 2024-2025 is primed to be a small set back year, as Muzzins expiring deal will almost certainly go towards re-signing Nylander and Matthews and the Leafs will be playing a top 4 D man short.

However, come 2025-2026 Tavares expiring deal will give them huge cap flexibility and is about the right time that all the promising late round Dubas picks are set to make the team as cheap ELCs. Similar to Tampa having Vasi, Sergachev, Point and Kucherov come in to supplement Stamkos and Hedman or Pittsburgh having Guentzel, Rust, Murray/Jarry.

Not to say the Leafs will hit on later round prospects in a similar way, but in a cap league there is waves of competitiveness sprinkled between years where the cap will strangle the teams ability to compete.

The next wave of players will be ready just as Matthews and Nylander are UFAs?

 

[EK392000]

Apparently, the Leafs have been shopping their RD with Liljegren looking more like a serviceable defensemen. He is the cheaper player and has been playing his way up the depth chart and into a roster spot. With this being said, I think the Leafs should and might very well be looking to ship one of Dermott or Holl out for some forward depth, particularly on the left wing. This is the trade I had in mind:

To Boston:
Travis Dermott (2 years @ 1.5 M)

To Toronto:
Jake Debrusk (2 years @ 3.675)

Leafs would need to move some cap out or look to getting retention, from Boston or a third team, in order to make the cap work. I know they are rivals but I think swapping a serviceable top 4 defenseman for a serviceable top 6 forward makes sense. If the Leafs need to add a bit, as in a 5th rounder, I would be okay with it because Debrusk is gritty and does well in the playoffs considering the Bruins deploy him as a third liner.

Here's how the lines would look:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev- Tavares - Nylander
Debrusk - Kampf - Kase
Ritchie - Spezza - Simmonds

Extras: Engvall, Robertson

Reilly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl/Liljegren
Sandin - Holl/Liljegren

I would personally move Kerfoot (for the highest pick they can get) and I would let Holl and Liljegren fight for that 2RD spot. The LW will also be competition based, with players moving up and down the lineup depending on their play and chemistry with linemates.

What do you guys think?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would rather have Kerfoot than DeBrusk. DeBrusk is a non-tender candidate. There is no way anyone is giving him that QO unless he has a major turnaround, and we definitely can't afford it, so it is effectively a rental.

The only deal we should even remotely consider is something like Ritchie + Holl for DeBrusk + Zboril + conditional pick if DeBrusk is not traded/re-signed, and that is as much about getting rid of cap for next year than anything DeBrusk brings.

And we would still need to trade Engvall to make room for Mikheyev.

 

[Twine Tickler]

so we essentially move out Holl and Kerfoot, in exchange for Debrusk and we become a better team in the immediate?

don't think so

Kerfoot is better than Debrusk. I like Debrusk's game, and would be happy to take a flyer on him, but not if it involved moving out Kerf to make the cap situation work. Seems like a backwards move

 

[Twine Tickler]

Dermott/Holl + Ritchie for Connor Brown

would never happen, but I'd love that

 

[SprDaVE]

Ritchie and a conditional 3rd 2023 for Lyubushkin. If Leafs don't re-sign Lyu, it's a 4th. Maybe make it a conditional 2nd 2023 that changes to a 3rd.

Holl for Grundstrom. Simple enough. Keefe knows him well. Big cap savings, gain a cheap 3rd/4th liner for next season. Change Grundstrom with T. Moore maybe, similar results but less cap savings.

Keep Dermott for the season, re-evaluate in the off-season.

You're welcome, Kyle Dubas. It's that easy.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Ritchie and a conditional 3rd 2023 for Lyubushkin. If Leafs don't re-sign Lyu, it's a 4th. Maybe make it a conditional 2nd 2023 that changes to a 3rd.

Holl for Grundstrom. Simple enough. Keefe knows him well. Big cap savings, gain a cheap 3rd/4th liner for next season. Change Grundstrom with T. Moore maybe, similar results but less cap savings.

Keep Dermott for the season, re-evaluate in the off-season.

You're welcome, Kyle Dubas. It's that easy.

Doesn't the league have a rule against signing and trading UFAs? I thought we couldn't trade until Jan 1 or something. could be wrong though.

 

[4thline]

Ritchie and a conditional 3rd 2023 for Lyubushkin. If Leafs don't re-sign Lyu, it's a 4th. Maybe make it a conditional 2nd 2023 that changes to a 3rd.

Holl for Grundstrom. Simple enough. Keefe knows him well. Big cap savings, gain a cheap 3rd/4th liner for next season. Change Grundstrom with T. Moore maybe, similar results but less cap savings.

Keep Dermott for the season, re-evaluate in the off-season.

You're welcome, Kyle Dubas. It's that easy.

Pft, easier than that. If we're giving up on Ritchie
Ritchie + Holl/Dermott to Nashville for Cousins+Benning+ Pick. Save either 1.5 or 2m on cap, get another feisty versatile type. Ups the pace on that 4th line and gives us another C option. Benning an injury replacement that can give 12-15 minutes no problem.