GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VIII

[WTFMAN99]

You've digressed into weird and unrelated territory here. No one has claimed that everyone here expected a loss against Boston. Everyone was hoping for a win but very few were convinced that we were a contender as constituted in those years.

The only time that this board had general consensus in the expectation that we should beat our opponent and then possibly go far was last year against the Habs.

My thought process;

Washington series; happy to be there
Boston; would have liked to win but didn't expect it
Boston 2; we signed JT, I expected to win.
CBJ; I expected to win. They were also without Josh Anderson.
Montreal; I really expected to win.

Vancouver knocked off St.Louis Blues the year after they won a cup, you can have expectations. We've seen zero tangible progress, if anything you can argue we've gotten worse as we're now going out against mediocre opponents instead of elite ones like Boston.

 

[Griffin76]

Dubas, knowing he needs some cap space, on the headset to Wideman.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Guys, Muzzin is not LTIRetiring. At least not yet. He just needs a Brodie-type defenseman to play with. Doesn't need to be a world-beater, just a safe guy who can skate and move the puck. Will likely be an off-season move.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Much of our D-corp is dependent on the 1st pairing, and Jake Muzzin continuing to be stable and borderline elite. I'm feeling a sense of dread with his latest injury.

 

[Mickey Marner]

My thought process;

Washington series; happy to be there
Boston; would have liked to win but didn't expect it
Boston 2; we signed JT, I expected to win.
CBJ; I expected to win. They were also without Josh Anderson.
Montreal; I really expected to win.

Vancouver knocked off St.Louis Blues the year after they won a cup, you can have expectations. We've seen zero tangible progress, if anything you can argue we've gotten worse as we're now going out against mediocre opponents instead of elite ones like Boston.

Insofar, the Washington series was the high-water mark for this team. Felt like they were destined for greatness.

 

[showtime8]

Is a 2nd. pairing defender a major change? Probably not, but it isn't a minor tweak either.

What is Dubas willing to give up to fill that positional chasm?

If Muzzin is gone for the year, which he should be if his propensity for being concussed has increased, they have a hole today they did not have yesterday.

I don't think Sandin is ready for that role, and it might be Dermott never will be.

Unless there's a minor league player who can jump in something will be done.

Yeah, that's probably a good point. Finding a 2nd pairing dman is impactful to help support the top pairing and play the shutdown role that has been lacking. And the impact to the immediate roster would be noticeable, but it wouldn't be franchise altering if you were to trade a Marner/Nylander.

The Muzzin situation is very interesting to me. The entire year, he has been all over the map and you didn't know what you were going to get from him on a game to game basis. So I think in the back of Dubas' mind, the 2nd pairing has to be an issue to resolve. I think they could get by on not adding to the bottom 6 forwards, although not ideal, it doesn't change who will dictate how far the Leafs go this season. But the defense has been all over the place. Liljegren, Dermott and Sandin playing for stretches, Holl struggles and Muzzin's play have all been too many question marks for a team that has to make some sort of impact in the playoffs or else Dubas is gone.

So I think they shut Muzzin down for a solid month and get him on LTIR. You know what you're going to get from the guys that are in the system, so they don't need any more time to try and showcase who stays before the deadline. It's just at this point, what is Dubas going to do to improve the back end?

 

[Gary Nylund]

In both Boston series, sure we had a chance, but that's not what the OP stated. His statement was that many on this board was content with the team heading into the playoffs. That just wasn't the case heading into either Boston series - there was never anything remotely resembling a consensus on here that we would beat them.

You've digressed into weird and unrelated territory here. No one has claimed that everyone here expected a loss against Boston. Everyone was hoping for a win but very few were convinced that we were a contender as constituted in those years.

The only time that this board had general consensus in the expectation that we should beat our opponent and then possibly go far was last year against the Habs.

You're the one who's "digressed into weird and unrelated territory" with this strange talk about consensus. Like I said, there is never a consensus here about anything but that's completely irrelevant and the fact that there is no "consensus" most certainly doesn't mean that we should accept losing. Underdogs win all the time, unless of course they're the Toronto Maple Leafs, and especially if their opponent is the Toronto Maple Leafs.

We could have won the first series against Boston, but we folded in game 7 and lost.

We could have won the second series against Boston, but we folded in game 7 and lost.

We could have won the series against CLB, but we folded in game 5 and lost.

We should have won the series against MTL, but we folded in game 7 and lost.

Those are the facts, the facts are pretty ugly and the fact that we were underdogs in two of those years doesn't make it less ugly, especially considering we were HUGE favourites against MTL, and only slight dogs against Boston.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Insofar, the Washington series was the high-water mark for this team. Felt like they were destined for greatness.

Even the 1st Boston series, pushing them to 7 seem good, it was an improvement over the 6 game series vs Washington.

It's been downhill since.

 

[Kurtz]

Not knowing the extent of Jake's injury, but assuming that it might be a lengthy one, I wonder if we can pull a Kucherov on this one. Use his cap to add, and then have Jake come back game 1 (likely on the 3rd pairing to start).

 

[ToneDog]

Agreed. We need another Bunting-type

Bunting is a shit disturber but he doesn't scare anybody. He shys away when it comes to dropping the gloves. No way should he let Krug get away with dummying him in both meetings with the Blues. Needs to clock somebody to get respect.

 

[SprDaVE]

This is not the playoff woes thread. Let's get back on topic. Let's talk about trades and free agency.

 

[ToneDog]

Owen Tippet might be available. Panthers too deep up front.

 

[Smif]

Bunting is a shit disturber but he doesn't scare anybody. He shys away when it comes to dropping the gloves. No way should he let Krug get away with dummying him in both meetings with the Blues. Needs to clock somebody to get respect.

With our top 2 lines having next to no grit it's mandatory that one of Kase, Mikheyev or Engvall be gritty. At least one of these guys needs to be parlayed into a different type of player with intangibles.

 

[Griffin76]

With our top 2 lines having next to no grit it's mandatory that one of Kase, Mikheyev or Engvall be gritty. At least one of these guys needs to be parlayed into a different type of player with intangibles.

I'd be fine with moving Mikheyev. UFA that seemingly won't be signed. Streaky. He could go off like crazy in the playoffs and fill the net. But then again he could also disappear. I think Engvall has some value to us. He's decent depth. Shouldn't cost too much to sign again. Kase I believe is still and RFA so he could come back fairly cheaply. But I wouldn't lose any sleep if any of them were traded to upgrade.

 

[Duffman955]

Was really hoping for Crouse in the Arizona trade

 

[Fogelhund]

Some random notes.

The Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase line is at 35% xG on the season.



Re; Justin Holl, and last nights game... Justin Holl ends the night with hr best xGF%, lowest xGA, best GF% and lowest GA of any Leafs D.

 

[Apex Predator]

Some random notes.

The Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase line is at 35% xG on the season.



Re; Justin Holl, and last nights game... Justin Holl ends the night with hr best xGF%, lowest xGA, best GF% and lowest GA of any Leafs D.

Do those stats mean he was our best dman last night?

 

[Nylanderthal]

Is it just me or our 3rd line been absolutely invisible offensively.

Kase had a good run, but he's super injury prone and doesn't keep his head up. Kampf doesn't belong on the 3rd line.

I would look to add some bite and firepower on the 3rd line.

I’d love to add a fwd and spread out the wealth putting Nylander and Kerfoot on L3 with either the new addition or a good puck retrieving winger. Kampf/Engvall are a crazy good duo for L4 to be a shut down line.

 

[Fogelhund]

Do those stats mean he was our best dman last night?

Well...only D that wasn't on for a goal against... while Rielly and Brodie were on for three against. Yes, those stats suggest that while he was on the ice, we had our best results. That isn't the same as saying he was our best D last night, but the results were there when he is on the ice. When that consistently happens, then maybe you do conclude someone is decent defensively, despite the huge eye test gaffes.

 

[Fogelhund]

Also...



If Campbell or Mrazek don't turn around their play, our biggest need might actually be goaltending. We've received the worst goaltending this year, of any team currently qualified for the playoffs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Also...



If Campbell or Mrazek don't turn around their play, our biggest need might actually be goaltending. We've received the worst goaltending this year, of any team currently qualified for the playoffs.

I feel like the top line and Rielly-Brodie have been our most consistent players. Marner had a rough opening you could say, but even his off-game is better than most.

Kampf-Kase steady when together too.

The rest of the team seems like a tire fire.

 

[Buds17]

Well...only D that wasn't on for a goal against... while Rielly and Brodie were on for three against. Yes, those stats suggest that while he was on the ice, we had our best results. That isn't the same as saying he was our best D last night, but the results were there when he is on the ice. When that consistently happens, then maybe you do conclude someone is decent defensively, despite the huge eye test gaffes.

Keep in mind that Holl did play the fewest minutes among Leaf blueliners (save for Muzzin; Dermott was essentially above Holl's total by a negligible amount) and didn't play at all on the PK. Good numbers, just a slight grain of salt to go along with them.

 

[Fogelhund]

So the Leafs have 4 NHL RD now; Brodie, Holl, Liljegren, Lyubushkin. It seems improbable, that we trade for another RD, unless one is going to be traded out. As much as Holl looks terrible on the eye test, by every statistical measure he's been decent. The xGA numbers etc, are above.

Here are actual results...

Rk	Player	Pos		CF %	GF/60	GA/60
7	Jake Muzzin	D		-3.3	2.8	3.5
14	Morgan Rielly	D		0.2	3.2	2.7
15	Timothy Liljegren	D		2.1	3.2	2.6
16	Justin Holl	D		-2.3	3.0	2.5
17	T.J. Brodie	D		-1.3	2.7	2.5
20	Travis Dermott	D		-1.2	3.0	2.3
22	Rasmus Sandin	D		2.3	2.9	2.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

On the Left we have Rielly, Sandin and Dermott. Muzzin is injured currently. The reason to make a move on D, is to replace Muzzin, who as per above, has by far the worst GA/60 on the team. His xGA is the second worst on the team, his CF% rel is the worst on the team... he's struggled. There is a valid argument, to LTIR him, and replace him. He's part of our over 30 group, who have underperformed this year. Tavares, Spezza and even Simmonds haven't been at their best. At least with Rielly on the ice, we score goals, even though he gives up far too much.

If we need to replace a D at this point... it might be Muzzin.

 

[Fogelhund]

Keep in mind that Holl did play the fewest minutes among Leaf blueliners (save for Muzzin; Dermott was essentially above Holl's total by a negligible amount) and didn't play at all on the PK. Good numbers, just a slight grain of salt to go along with them.

Of course, ... competition, minutes, etc... but it's important to check our bias as well, what we see with the eye test. Who have actually had better results /60, who has had expected better results... and so on...

 

[Gary Nylund]

Also...



If Campbell or Mrazek don't turn around their play, our biggest need might actually be goaltending. We've received the worst goaltending this year, of any team currently qualified for the playoffs.

Why isolate high danger SV%? To me that seems like just looking at 5on5 stats or picking some other cherry. Doesn't looking at overall SV% make more sense?

Out team SV% is middle of the pack. Trending downward to be sure but 11th overall isn't the worst among playoff teams.