GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VIII

[Fogelhund]

A cap hit we can't afford next year unless Muzzin is on LTIR forever. Chychrun is also more of a Rielly-lite, and the price for him is far beyond what he actually brings to the table.

The first question is... what is wrong with Muzzin, and when will he be back... if he is.

Second question, is who to replace him with, (temporarily) and what is the cost?

A 23 year old D, with term, size, and a decent contract, is an attractive piece... I mean, if we are doing a deal, is it him, Chiarot, Lindholm... that we are going after... going to spend a 1st + on a bandaid, or a long-term piece?

Yes, there is a cap issue... But we also potentially have a rather severe right now issue too. I don't know... if I'm spending some good assets on a replacement, I'd rather have term... if we do need to replace Muzzin, who would you look at?

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

#1 - Muzzin on LTIR

#2 - Leafs - Canucks
JT Miller & Luke Schenn
for
Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl, Nick Robertson & 2nd 2023

#3 - Leafs - Coyotes
Jacob Chychrun & Lawson Crouse
for
Matthew Knies, Topi Niemela, Travis Dermott & 1st 2022

#4 - Leafs - Western Playoff Team
Ilya Mikheyev
for
2nd/Picks

LINES:

BUNTING - MATTHEWS - MARNER - 20 Mins
CROUSE - - MILLER - - NYLANDER - 16 Mins
KAMPF - - - TAVARES - - - - - KASE - 16 Mins
ENGVALL - - SPEZZA - SIMMONDS - 8 Mins
CLIFFORD

RIELLY - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - BEAR
SANDIN - SCHENN
LILJIGREN

1.4 Million under the Cap with Muzzin on LTIR**

WITH MUZZIN (PLAYOFFS)

RIELLY - - - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - SANDIN
MUZZIN - SCHENN/BEAR

 

[Griffin76]

It's part of the game. They happen in every game, for every team... you can't prevent them.

But are we allowing more chances than other teams? I know they can't be stopped completely but reducing them should be a priority I would think.

 

[thusk]

Mrazek and Campbell have matching .894 save percentages since Jan 1. Tied with each other for 57th among all nhl goalies in that timeframe. It’s a miracle we win at all. That’s not even average backup quality play

Its easy to blame goaltender but most of the time a goalie will be the reflect of how the team play in front. If you didnt played well, that will affect goalie stats like if you playing the right way that will affect goalie stats.

After the 6 first game of the seqson, torontonstarted to play a complete 200 feet game and was awesome to watch played, but with time they start to cheat defensivly, played soft, didnt go for second effort, didnt cover his d when they jump offensivly.

Its simple if toronto want to win on first round they need to play like they was playing the first month and half

 

[Fogelhund]

But are we allowing more chances than other teams? I know they can't be stopped completely but reducing them should be a priority I would think.

No, we aren't allowing more chances than average.

 

[SprDaVE]

These next couple weeks are going to get interesting with Muzzin out indefinitely.

Sandin and Dermott getting a big test. I'd play Dermott in Muzzins role but Sandin could use the test as well.

If they both kinda can't play up to the role, might get spicy on the trade market.

 

[Fogelhund]

#1 - Muzzin on LTIR

#2 - Leafs - Canucks
JT Miller & Luke Schenn
for
Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl, Nick Robertson & 2nd 2023

#3 - Leafs - Coyotes
Jacob Chychrun & Lawson Crouse
for
Matthew Knies, Topi Niemela, Travis Dermott & 1st 2022

I don't think Canucks take that deal. Miller can get them more.

I hate giving up Niemela, Knies, Roberston AND a 1st.... it just hurts too much.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes odd man rushes are counted in high danger shots if the shot comes from a high danger area on the ice

This is the biggest issue I see. If a high danger rush chance is treated the same as a high danger cycle style chance it is essentially a somewhat flawed and useless stat.

If you give up a ton of odd man rushes and breakaways you would expect to get a lower high danger sv% and that really is independent of the goalie

 

[Ziggdiezan]

These next couple weeks are going to get interesting with Muzzin out indefinitely.

Sandin and Dermott getting a big test. I'd play Dermott in Muzzins role but Sandin could use the test as well.

If they both kinda can't play up to the role, might get spicy on the trade market.

Ya it will be a big test for sure. The issue with having historically one of the most sheltered 3rd pairings in the NHL is if a 2nd pairing guy goes down your putting a 3rd pairing guy in a really tough spot, trial by fire.

 

[Sypher04]

Its easy to blame goaltender but most of the time a goalie will be the reflect of how the team play in front. If you didnt played well, that will affect goalie stats like if you playing the right way that will affect goalie stats.

After the 6 first game of the seqson, torontonstarted to play a complete 200 feet game and was awesome to watch played, but with time they start to cheat defensivly, played soft, didnt go for second effort, didnt cover his d when they jump offensivly.

Its simple if toronto want to win on first round they need to play like they was playing the first month and half

There is some truth to what you’re saying, but I think it’s overstated. The Leafs haven’t dramatically changed how they are playing now vs earlier in the season, as you suggest.

also it’s well established that save percentage is an individual stat. Goals against average is more of a team play dependent stat.

The recent slipping in our play is entirely arguable as a biproduct of a loss of confidence that they are going to get the stop when a mistake is made. We all know everything goes to hell when guys start overthinking things

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[kb]

cost controlled young Dman. 23 years old on a favorable cap hit.

Who is a lesser version of Rielly, which leaves the Leafs with no shutdown D on the left side.

Again, people ignore needs and fit over and over again.

 

[Sypher04]

This is the biggest issue I see. If a high danger rush chance is treated the same as a high danger cycle style chance it is essentially a somewhat flawed and useless stat.

If you give up a ton of odd man rushes and breakaways you would expect to get a lower high danger sv% and that really is independent of the goalie

A good cycle chance that gets the goalie moving and where the shot is well placed is functionally no different than it is on the rush.

 

[Fogelhund]

Who is a lesser version of Rielly, which leaves the Leafs with no shutdown D on the left side.

Again, people ignore needs and fit over and over again.

So who?

 

[ToneDog]

#1 - Muzzin on LTIR

#2 - Leafs - Canucks
JT Miller & Luke Schenn
for
Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl, Nick Robertson & 2nd 2023

#3 - Leafs - Coyotes
Jacob Chychrun & Lawson Crouse
for
Matthew Knies, Topi Niemela, Travis Dermott & 1st 2022

#4 - Leafs - Western Playoff Team
Ilya Mikheyev
for
2nd/Picks

LINES:

BUNTING - MATTHEWS - MARNER - 20 Mins
CROUSE - - MILLER - - NYLANDER - 16 Mins
KAMPF - - - TAVARES - - - - - KASE - 16 Mins
ENGVALL - - SPEZZA - SIMMONDS - 8 Mins
CLIFFORD

RIELLY - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - BEAR
SANDIN - SCHENN
LILJIGREN

1.4 Million under the Cap with Muzzin on LTIR**

WITH MUZZIN (PLAYOFFS)

RIELLY - - - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - SANDIN
MUZZIN - SCHENN/BEAR

So we lose two of our top 3 LW prospects, our best dman prospect and another 1st and 2nd ?? The cupboard will be bare.

Edit: Bear is Lyub not Bear the dman??

 

[Ziggdiezan]

A good cycle chance that gets the goalie moving and where the shot is well placed is functionally no different than it is on the rush.

Statistically i don't think that is true. Rush chances have a higher chance of scoring. That's why most of the advanced models track if it is a rush chance or a regular chance as rush chances are automatically result in a higher xGF for example

 

[kb]

So who?

Giordano.

Won't cost a ton and is a UFA

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Hopefully it is really aggressive for guys with term. I have no interest in making a big splash on rentals

 

[thusk]

There is some truth to what you’re saying, but I think it’s overstated. The Leafs haven’t dramatically changed how they are playing now vs earlier in the season, as you suggest.

also it’s well established that save percentage is an individual stat. Goals against average is more of a team play dependent stat.

The recent slipping in our play is entirely arguable as a biproduct of a loss of confidence that they are going to get the stop when a mistake is made. We all know everything goes to hell when guys start overthinking things

A shot from the slot with a player on shooting lane and putting pressure statisticly will be the same the a player who take a shot from the same area with all the time on the world to shoot. In stats, its the same thing but in reality i see a really huge difference and its the difference between now and the beggining of season. In term of quantity of scoring chance, it look similar nut in term of quality...

Its how a team can affect goalie stats and not just gaa.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d go all in for Chychrun at this point.

 

[Sypher04]

Who is a lesser version of Rielly, which leaves the Leafs with no shutdown D on the left side.

Again, people ignore needs and fit over and over again.

there’s nothing that says there must specifically be a left side shutdown D. You could have them on your right side, provided your Left isn’t a liability, you’re fine.

Chychrun has plenty to offer that would fit well for us, especially if Muzzin is out, but like Rielly we’d really want a particular style of D alongside him. Can’t obviously be all the same

either way though, I don’t think he’s likely.

 

[Kiwi]

These next couple weeks are going to get interesting with Muzzin out indefinitely.

Sandin and Dermott getting a big test. I'd play Dermott in Muzzins role but Sandin could use the test as well.

If they both kinda can't play up to the role, might get spicy on the trade market.

I'd play Sandin with Liljegren and Dermott with Holl, give them similar assignments and QOC

Give it 3 weeks then see who's doing what then I'm going to the trade market to see what's available

I think we need to know what we have before we start moving valuable assets out

 

[MatthewNylander]

I’d go all in for Chychrun at this point.

I like that idea , like Demelo if there is a chance he is available.

 

[kb]

Hopefully is is really aggressive for guys with term. I have no interest in making a big splash on rentals

Guys with term are usually the ones rebuilding teams build around. Especially on D. Unless they are on the wrong side of 30.

The Leafs have specific needs. A shutdown LD to replace Muzzin and a goalie who can stop the puck are #1 and #1A. Chychrun is not a shutdown D. He'd be more of a Rielly replacement than a Muzzin one.

I have this sinking feeling that the Chiarot talk will heat up again.

 

[Apex Predator]

Guys with term are usually the ones rebuilding teams build around. Especially on D. Unless they are on the wrong side of 30.

The Leafs have specific needs. A shutdown LD to replace Muzzin and a goalie who can stop the puck are #1 and #1A. Chychrun is not a shutdown D. He'd be more of a Rielly replacement than a Muzzin one.

I have this sinking feeling that the Chiarot talk will heat up again.

I hope not at the cost that has been rumored