GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART IX

[Scion]

Great post.

I think the main thing to remember that even with the noise and variance that comes with xG (incorrect tracking locations, lack of context, etc) it is still by far the best stat for predicting future success.

Even if there is a disconnect between the eyes and what the stats say, the thing it really comes down to how many other teams do people watch as religiously as they do the Leafs. When you watch a team you see flaws: effort, mistakes, defense, etc. what the stats allow you to do, especially with a large sample size is block out the noise that your eyes see. Even without looking at raw xG models like hockeyviz show visually how dominant this team is at defending HD chances conpared to most teams in the league. Every team gives multiple chances like we do a game. I just think that for us every time one happens we notice it more than a usual team does because we have 10x more people point it out. Not to mention we rank in the top-10 for overall shot attempts against, and just outside the top-10 in unblocked shot attempts against. We as a team seem to limit shots entirely which just causes a drop-off in overall chances. I don't think the team is this defensively sound machine (they have flaws just like eveyone else), but their overall effectiveness of not allowing shots or chances is what makes them very good/great defensively.

I am guilty of all of that, and certainly the past playoff failures have an impact on all of our perceptions. I suppose I have more conviction now because I feel like I've seen this movie before, you know?

 

[Morgs]

I am guilty of all of that, and certainly the past playoff failures have an impact on all of our perceptions. I suppose I have more conviction now because I feel like I've seen this movie before, you know?

100%. I told myself I wasn't going to get invested in this season at all and just the playoffs. Then I come on here and all day to the point I get sucked right back in.

For me though this is actually the best team we've had in my 28 years of life. All three of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are having the best season of their careers, the bottom 6 legitimately looks like they're a net positive in 99% of games, and the team defense has never been close to this good. Not to mention an elite PP and PK to go with it.

With Jack playing like Jack we were unstoppable. I can't even imagine how far ahead we'd be of Florida and Tampa right now if we got league average goaltending since Dec 1. We're such a good team we're winning in spite of having the worst overall goaltending in the league for months.

 

[Scion]

100%. I told myself I wasn't going to get invested in this season at all and just the playoffs. Then I come on here and all day to the point I get sucked right back in.

For me though this is actually the best team we've had in my 28 years of life. All three of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are having the best season of their careers, the bottom 6 legitimately looks like they're a net positive in 99% of games, and the team defense has never been close to this good. Not to mention an elite PP and PK to go with it.

With Jack playing like Jack we were unstoppable. I can't even imagine how far ahead we'd be of Florida and Tampa right now if we got league average goaltending since Dec 1. We're such a good team we're winning in spite of having the worst overall goaltending in the league for months.

I'm the same way, don't let my skepticism fool you. The moment the puck drops I believe again, it's what being a fan is all about. I'm old enough to remember the early 90's and 2000's teams which were certainly better, but nowhere near as talented. The big difference for me, apart from goaltending, is that those teams played with grit and stuck up for one another consistently. It always felt like the team was better than the sum of its parts, whereas this group kind of feels like a bunch of really great parts.

I also think the team has been different since the covid break. I don't know if its a coincidence or maybe there is some lingering effects, but they just haven't been as consistent since then. Tavares and Campbell in particular have looked like completely different players.

 

[ACC1224]

I honestly don't think it's fair price. I don't really see a path for us to re-sign Lindholm if we trade for him and Gibson. No matter which one of Campbell (after his raise) or Mrazek you keep in the offseason, that's still a lot of cap spent on goaltending. Trading Nylander who has one of the better contracts on the team and some term left shouldn't be an option. Our top six would be infintely wose without him and Kerfoot/Tavares would be getting dumpstered harder than they are now.

Fair enough.
I would expect both goalies to be gone if a Gibson is brought in.
Sure the top 6 would be worse but the defense and goaltending would be better. Perhaps a more balanced lineup is a better approach to the top heavy way they are going about it now.

 

[Nylanderthal]

No. Friedman yesterday during intermission said he thought the Leafs would go for the best defenseman they could get on the market. He then said that he thought Lindholm is the best dman available. He didn't say anything of substance that links the Leafs to Lindholm.

He also said don’t expect Dubas to be out there making deals like his jobs on the line. *Because it isn’t.* <- he didn’t say that directly but the implication was management doesn’t feel pressure to go “all in” to save themselves and that this season will be a judgement on the core players on the ice, not necessarily the higher ups making those decisions.
As I’ve said before if they flame out and there’s refusal to change course wrt to roster construction then all bets are off, but I believe this group gets a chance to mix things up on the ice before being shown the door.
Also, I feel very confident if either our coach or GM became unemployed neither would be out of work for very long.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I'm the same way, don't let my skepticism fool you. The moment the puck drops I believe again, it's what being a fan is all about. I'm old enough to remember the early 90's and 2000's teams which were certainly better, but nowhere near as talented. The big difference for me, apart from goaltending, is that those teams played with grit and stuck up for one another consistently. It always felt like the team was better than the sum of its parts, whereas this group kind of feels like a bunch of really great parts.

I also think the team has been different since the covid break. I don't know if its a coincidence or maybe there is some lingering effects, but they just haven't been as consistent since then. Tavares and Campbell in particular have looked like completely different players.

This has been the most obvious problem, there seems to be some lingering effects; whether it’s long Covid or something else it’s right around when they shut down on the west coast trip that those two have not been close to the same

 

[LeafsFan89]

I'm the same way, don't let my skepticism fool you. The moment the puck drops I believe again, it's what being a fan is all about. I'm old enough to remember the early 90's and 2000's teams which were certainly better, but nowhere near as talented. The big difference for me, apart from goaltending, is that those teams played with grit and stuck up for one another consistently. It always felt like the team was better than the sum of its parts, whereas this group kind of feels like a bunch of really great parts.

I also think the team has been different since the covid break. I don't know if its a coincidence or maybe there is some lingering effects, but they just haven't been as consistent since then. Tavares and Campbell in particular have looked like completely different players.

I grew up in the 90s and recently watched some playoff games from then. There does seem to be a different atmosphere. Obviously the crowd was much more vocal than our current crowd. But you're right - Those "less skilled" teams played a team game that was much more gritty, as opposed to a more finesse game that we play. I think it's more due to the philosophy of Dubas and management, and the players that bought into this. It's funny how those "heavy players" from western conference teams come to Toronto, and their physicality seems to evaporate. Likely because they're told to play the game in a different way.

I am not saying you can't win a playoff series this way. But it seems we are on the opposite side of the spectrum - too much skill and finesse and not enough physicality/grit/grind/whatever you want to call it (outside of a few players). No, I am not suggesting pulling a Burke and play the Biggs type of players lol. It's more of a mindset. Hard to say if its a Keefe problem or a player attitude problem. Given this is our second coach, and the last five playoff performances, I think it's the latter and that is harder to correct.

 

[Scion]

I grew up in the 90s and recently watched some playoff games from then. There does seem to be a different atmosphere. Obviously the crowd was much more vocal than our current crowd. But you're right - Those "less skilled" teams played a team game that was much more gritty, as opposed to a more finesse game that we play. I think it's more due to the philosophy of Dubas and management, and the players that bought into this. It's funny how those "heavy players" from western conference teams come to Toronto, and their physicality seems to evaporate. Likely because they're told to play the game in a different way.

I am not saying you can't win a playoff series this way. But it seems we are on the opposite side of the spectrum - too much skill and finesse and not enough physicality/grit/grind/whatever you want to call it (outside of a few players). No, I am not suggesting pulling a Burke and play the Biggs type of players lol. It's more of a mindset. Hard to say if its a Keefe problem or a player attitude problem. Given this is our second coach, and the last five playoff performances, I think it's the latter and that is harder to correct.

Sometimes I think the Leafs are too smart for their own good. It's great to try and be cutting edge, but you also have to know when to innovate and when to pay homage to the tenants of the sport that have withstood the test of time because they work.

 

[LeafsFan89]

Sometimes I think the Leafs are too smart for there own good. It's great to try and innovate and be cutting edge, but you also have to know when to innovate and when to pay homage to the tenants of the sport that have withstood the test of time because they work.

I agree. I feel they try to course correct by adding a few "tough" guys each TDL. However, this won't do anything - it's the collective mindset that needs to be cultivated through years of battling with and for each other.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You’re not going to get a goalie at the top of their game because they won’t be available. You need to target guys who are struggling enough to be available, but good enough that you believe they can find their game.

Gibson to me has all the fundamental qualities you want in a goalie, and in the right situation he can easily be a 0.920. He is also still relatively young with some playoff success as well, and is signed long term to a reasonable cap hit.

The price is going to need to reflect that though.

Gibson is making 6.4 mill for 5 years after this one and he is turning 29 this year. He has been league average at best for the past 3 years.

There is some major risk involved with him. I guess there is also some major upside. I think Anaheim ends up keeping him. He can still fit for their future and I don't think Gibson gets the kind of return they want TBH.

Ultimately, I think if the Leafs get a goalie (and I seriously question whether they do), the price will be nothing more than Mrazek, B prospects, and a 2nd. I don't think there is anyone on the market worth top prospects or 1sts; Gibson included.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm going to be honest with you, I think there is a disconnect between the Leafs xGA and their actual defensive ability. They don't give up many chances because they have the puck alot, and generally keep teams to the outside. However, when they do give up chances they are back-breakers and that is sometimes missed when you measure xG without any additional context. Sometimes a team only gives up a few high quality chances but those high quality chances end up in the back of the net, so how good are they really?

I track data and analytics in the OHL so I understand that a large sample set helps to reduce alot of noise, and certainly more sophisticated tracking models that incorporate pre-shot movement, rebounds and screens can further help to differentiate the good from the bad. However, in my experience there is still noise because things like box outs and tying up sticks in front help make a difference. For example, if two players get a shot off of a rebound in a HD area but one of them is all alone and the other has to fight through sticks and bodies they are tracked the exact same. In the public sphere there is this tendency to ignore these variations because they stabilize with increased data, but the problem is that the playoffs are a small sample and if there is a blind spot in a model it doesn't disappear with more data, the problem just multiplies at a rate that is smaller than the perceived norms.

All of this is a long winded way of saying that I see weaknesses in the Leafs defense that I don't think the stats are adequately capturing. There is no question that the Leafs goaltending compounds the issue, perhaps more than I am even accounting for, but I do not think the two are isolated.

And to be completely fair, I do not think I can say with certainty that the Panthers will be successful in the playoffs either because we really haven't seen any team quite like them, at least to my memory. They give up a ton of high quality against, but they also out chance and out shoot everyone.

I think what you are saying has merit if every high danger chance the Leafs give up is a tap in or a breakaway. Stuff that the goalie may not be favoured to save.

But let's be honest, we are not giving up a bunch of tap ins and breakaway goals. Sure, there are things that we should tighten up. Go to any team in the top 10 like we are and you can say the exact same thing. We are also a little bit more aggressive than some other teams, and that can sometimes cause us to give up some odd man rushes the other way. I think we can be more selective at times. A lot of this comes from coaching and tactics more than anything else though.

I just compare compare successful Campbell to unsuccessful Campbell (or unsuccessful Andersen). The main reason for his success was not that he was making a bunch of 10-bell saves and bailing out his defense constantly (although he did do it on occasion, as all legit starting goalies do). He doesn't need to be Shestyerkin.

Rather, he was making sure he did not give up more than the defense gave up (at the very least), and he did his best to kill plays. He was sucking up pucks a lot better than he is right now. He was getting rebounds into lower danger areas. And most importantly, he wasn't letting pucks find holes... Which is the main reason I think he won the job from Andersen in the first place. Crap Andersen was doing a lot of the same things as what crap Campbell is doing right now. And, of course, he was also stopping a lot more pucks which he probably should not have stopped than he is now.

 

[Andrewcoursol]

But that's the thing. People quote "playoffs" because the team HAS to be elite 5v5 and take advantage of their special team opportunities. The Leafs are one of only 4 teams as I mentioned that are top-10 offensively and defensively, and here is where they rank based on GF/60 / GA/60 on PP/PK respectively:

PP:
1st - Leafs
9th - Flames
12th - Avalanche
15th - Penguins

PK:
3rd - Flames
4th - Leafs
5th - Penguins
22nd - Avs

So to sum, our players are 5th in xGF/60 at 5v5, 9th in xGA/60 at 5v5, 1st in GF/60 on PP, and 4th in GA/60. Our goalies? 28th in sv% 5v5, and 15th in all situations. This team is absolutely built for a long run in the playoffs, it's the best team of my lifetime, and a few minor tweaks (Simmonds out for a top-6F), good goaltending, and our top-line showing up in the playoffs is all we need to go on it.

No team besides the Flames are even close to as complete as we are. Even the Avs who are the best 5v5 team in the league can't touch our special teams.

what are the leafs ratings in the playoffs? when it really matters.

 

[Scion]

I think what you are saying has merit if every high danger chance the Leafs give up is a tap in or a breakaway. Stuff that the goalie may not be favoured to save.

But let's be honest, we are not giving up a bunch of tap ins and breakaway goals. Sure, there are things that we should tighten up. Go to any team in the top 10 like we are and you can say the exact same thing. We are also a little bit more aggressive than some other teams, and that can sometimes cause us to give up some odd man rushes the other way. I think we can be more selective at times. A lot of this comes from coaching and tactics more than anything else though.

I just compare compare successful Campbell to unsuccessful Campbell (or unsuccessful Andersen). The main reason for his success was not that he was making a bunch of 10-bell saves and bailing out his defense constantly (although he did do it on occasion, as all legit starting goalies do). He doesn't need to be Shestyerkin.

Rather, he was making sure he did not give up more than the defense gave up (at the very least), and he did his best to kill plays. He was sucking up pucks a lot better than he is right now. He was getting rebounds into lower danger areas. And most importantly, he wasn't letting pucks find holes... Which is the main reason I think he won the job from Andersen in the first place. Crap Andersen was doing a lot of the same things as what crap Campbell is doing right now. And, of course, he was also stopping a lot more pucks which he probably should not have stopped than he is now.

Maybe not breakaways, but certainly alot off the rush as they rank 28th league wide in that category. In any event, that is just one example and my intention was not to paint the Leafs as a bad team. Everyone knows they are good, but in our division it is going to take more. The Leafs are certainly capable of more, but make no mistake, the difference between TOR/TB/FLA will be on the margins which is where they need to tighten up as you say.

Additionally, I don't think the Leafs issues against the rush are tactics related. The Leafs do plenty tactically to try and limit rush chances against such as playing east west, incorporating cut backs and playing a 1-3-1 NZ forecheck. The issue is that the team is not very fast and as a result they struggle against straight line speed. They also don't play the typical heavy cycle game that slower teams often play. They like to have F3 up high to create a third attacking option coming down hill with separation. It's really cool when it works, but when you turn it over you have less time and space to react on the counter.

 

[Morgs]

what are the leafs ratings in the playoffs? when it really matters.

Well they heavily outplayed both CBJ and Montreal and got goalied. But a guy looking at these numbers and asking this question, I'd assume you're just being snarky and not looking for anything constructive.

 

[Andrewcoursol]

Idk man. I see the looks on Matthews, Marners, and Nylanders face when we're losing and they just f***ing hate it. The team is so good they look effortless at times, but I wouldn't confuse that for lack of intensity.

You can see year over year the improvements (especially those 3) have made to get them into the next round. Again, I do think playoffs against either Tampa/Florida is a 50/50 chance, but I'd bet on us this year if we get goaltending.

Tampa in 5 ,6 if leafs are lucky, vasilevsky is similar to price, plus tampa's core players willturn it up a few notches when it matters., florida did take tampa to 6 games last year, so we shall see who gets playoff performers for the playoffs.

 

[Morgs]

Tampa in 5 ,6 if leafs are lucky, vasilevsky is similar to price, plus tampa's core players willturn it up a few notches when it matters., florida did take tampa to 6 games last year, so we shall see who gets playoff performers for the playoffs.

Whatever you say babe, glad to have your insight.

 

[jaric1862]

I don't know who to trust, we're literally linked to everything.

 

[SprDaVE]

"Oh hey I forgot about Halak. He's available. I wonder how.... oh no... oh noooo, never mind"

 

[HolyCrap]

what are the leafs ratings in the playoffs? when it really matters.

Losing to Montreal the way they did was pathetically embarrassing.

 

[Kiwi]

"Oh hey I forgot about Halak. He's available. I wonder how.... oh no... oh noooo, never mind"

Maybe if we get enough bad goaltenders we can Frankenstein them into one good one?

 

[stickty111]

Lebrun on insider trading says Leafs assistant GM Gillman watched 2 Canucks games and confirms it was to watch JT Miller among others.

 

[jaric1862]

Why are the leafs linked to so many left handed defenceman? I don't get it unless Muzzin is out until the playoffs.

 

[McSnypsky]

What kind of goalie do we need that fits the way we play? right now both guys are both the athletic reaction type, do we need the technical blocking type? finding a Vasi type who does both is not going to happen i think

 

[SprDaVE]

Insider Trading talked about Kuzmenko, KHL free agent who will probably make the jump to the NHL. Doesn't specify teams involved but we know the Leafs scout Russia a lot.

LeBrun also mentions Gilman scouting the Canucks. He said Gilman was there to look at JT Miller, among other players. Nothing serious from the Leafs interest. Canucks apparently don't want to trade him unless there's a huge overpay, which is why Garland and Boeser are gaining interest from other teams.

Insider Trading: Leafs' assistant GM Gilman spotted at back-to-back Canucks games

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

What would it take to get Rakell and Stolarz with Mrazek going the other way?

Stolarz is signed next year at 950k while Rakell is a UFA at the end of the year.