Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[le_sean]

So what's better, to wait for Sanchez to fatigue and take him out completely or to just move him to the bullpen before he's actually fatigued and continue to get him to contribute late in the season? Seems like an obvious answer.

 

[Longshot]

I still like our odds of keeping Edwin. We can pay the man the 20 million or whatever he is asking for no problem.

The conversation with EE starts when you add 7 or 8 million to that total.

There are hardly any top hitters in the free agent market. Bautista's performance/injuries have hurt his value, EE's value has only gone up. He is going to get a massive, giant deal from somebody.

 

[Red Piller]

So what's better, to wait for Sanchez to fatigue and take him out completely or to just move him to the bullpen before he's actually fatigued and continue to get him to contribute late in the season? Seems like an obvious answer.

Toss him out there till his arm falls off then send him to the glue factory.

 

[Kurtz]

"Youth pitchers’ tissues have been shown to adapt to joint loading during pitching (6,7). Continued tissue adaptation, up until skeletal maturity, to repetitive mechanical loading can be a logical reason to limit consecutive season (year-to-year) increases in cumulative workload for a young pitcher. The theory being, young pitchers’ tissues have not had sufficient time to fully adapt to the cumulative workload experienced during a full MLB season. Following this theory, this may result in young pitchers’ tissues accumulating a greater level of cumulative damage during a single season, when compared to older pitchers with suitable tissue adaptation. Since the accumulated damage is in theory of a greater level in young pitchers, the offseason may not be a sufficient period of time for the required
healing/tissue adaptation to occur for the young pitcher to be able to pitch a greater number of innings the following season without an increased risk of injury."

https://www.researchgate.net/public...lely_by_restricting_number_of_innings_pitched

The article concludes that inning limits do not work BECAUSE they are not an accurate (at all) predictor of actual effort, however it does also conclude (or rather, assumes) that increasing said effort is a bad idea.

Thank you, good article. As you've pointed out, the article states that inning limits do not work.

The point on skeletal maturity is an excellent one, but I'd point out that the article discusses skeletal maturity in youth pitchers, and at over 25 years of age, I imagine that Sanchez has already reached the point of skeletal maturity (though I'm not 100% sure in this regard).

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Isn't that what the Rays did/ are doing to Chris Archer?

 

[Deebo]

what if he feelss fine and wants to continue pitching? aren't you also treating him like an asset with this logic?



Or one could say "Chris Sale" who went form 71 innings as a 22 year old to 192 innings the year after to no ill effect.

or let's go further

Kershaw:
20 y/o - 107 innings
21 y/o - 171 innings (30 starts)

Scherzer:
23 y/o - 56 innings
24 y/o - 170 (30 starts)

Bumgarner
20 y/o - 111 innings
21 y/o - 204 innings

Tillman
24 - 86 innings
25 - 206 innings

It seems you can go through all the best pitchers the league and it's the same deal. Kyle Hendricks went from 80 innings to 180. Jose Fernandez pitched 4 innings as an 18 year old in the minors, 134 the next, and pulled 172 as a rookie 20 year old.

You're ignoring minor league innings for most of those guys.

Kershaw had 61 IP in addition to the 107, Scherzer 53, Bumgarner 82, Tillman 92, Hendricks 102.

Sanchez minor+major total high prior to this year is 133 and he'll probably end up around 170 this year, which is similar to the increase Fernandez had.

 

[Bad News Benning]

The conversation with EE starts when you add 7 or 8 million to that total.

There are hardly any top hitters in the free agent market. Bautista's performance/injuries have hurt his value, EE's value has only gone up. He is going to get a massive, giant deal from somebody.

He's a DH. Teams aren't going to pay a DH 27-28 million.

 

[Neil Hamburger]

Toss him out there till his arm falls off then send him to the glue factory.

He is a workhorse after all.

 

[Discoverer]

Texas is the favourite to win the A.L. Jeff Blair was talking about this earlier today.

Well if Jeff Blair said it!

Texas has a +9 run differential. They've been mediocre with a lot of luck. Their additions likely mean that they won't fall quite as far back as it looked like they might, but they're not a clear favourite.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Thank you, good article. As you've pointed out, the article states that inning limits do not work.

But the Blue Jays aren't using oing an innings limit. They've been saying that they're using data and other metrics instead of pitch counts and innings limit.

Your bones never stop growing and changing- if they did, fractures wouldn't heal. In this ccontext, "skeletal maturity" means the amount of time bone and tissue take to adapt to throwing 200+ innings a year. Which is why the article presumes that there needs to be a way to limit workload (the assumption of limiting workload is fine): but approaching it in such a blanket way is not effective at all.

Basically it's data that corroborates what everyone already knew: players have to physically build stamina to be an MLB pitcher. Now we know why.

 

[Red Piller]

He's a DH. Teams aren't going to pay a DH 27-28 million.

The Boston Redsox will. And the year he is having, he is worth that money.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Well if Jeff Blair said it!

Texas has a +9 run differential. They've been mediocre with a lot of luck. Their additions likely mean that they won't fall quite as far back as it looked like they might, but they're not a clear favourite.

Texas definitely improved themselves but that rotation is still complete dog ****.

I still don't think there is a favorite in the AL. It's really a toss up at this point.

 

[Kurtz]

So you will continue to believe the Jays, despite their increased reliance on science via the enhancement of the analytics department and the creation of the high performance department, don't have evidence to support their decision, until such time as they choose to make the science public?

Will you continue to believe that priests, despite their cumulative millions of years practicing the art of religion, are able to communicate with God better than I can?

I find your deferral to authority on this subject quite surprising given that up until now your posts have always relied on hard proof and hard data.


Keep in mind that the Jays high performance department was put in place largely to prepare players for the rigors of the season, both mentally and physically. They seem to have done so with Sanchez in particular, who's put on 15 lbs of muscle for the purpose of durability. Having been on the job for but a few months, it is unlikely that they have any more vital data on pitcher durability than what is publically available. This is further supported by the fact that there is absolutely no precedent (as far as I can tell) of a sp preforming as well as Sanchez has been, being placed in the bullpen. How can you have research on something that's never been done before?

 

[Bjindaho]

Yes, explaining the science behind inning limits as an industry secret is a conspiracy. Besides, research would be far more fine tuned than an arbitrary number.

Some food for thought...

Aaron has thrown 2078 pitches this year vs 1449 last year (not including playoffs).

He has started 21 games vs pitching in 50 total games last year (including 11 starts).

If we limited him to 9 more starts, he would throw somewhere around 3000 pitches and we would have better control over his warming up.

If he goes to the pen, we warm him to bring him in, he doesn't throw side sessions, and we potentially stress his arm multiple days in a row instead of giving him days off.

 

[bobermay]

Seems like Jays management abides by the precautionary principle more strictly than posters on these boards...

 

[Kurtz]

Texas definitely improved themselves but that rotation is still complete dog ****.

I still don't think there is a favorite in the AL. It's really a toss up at this point.

Texas has poor SP depth, but it certainly looks like they'll make the playoffs. In the playoff series they can do the following:

Start Darvish/Hamels in 4 games of a 5 game series.
Start Darvish/Hamels 5 times in a 7 game series.


That is, unfortunately, superior to what the Jays can present (without Sanchez).

 

[Bad News Benning]

The Boston Redsox will. And the year he is having, he is worth that money.

Even Boston has a budget and I highly doubt they would want to commit 30 million to a DH.

He is not worth that money. Josh Donaldson is worth that kind of money.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Texas has poor SP depth, but it certainly looks like they'll make the playoffs. In the playoff series they can do the following:

Start Darvish/Hamels in 4 games of a 5 game series.
Start Darvish/Hamels 5 times in a 7 game series.


That is, unfortunately, superior to what the Jays can present (without Sanchez).

That's if Darvish arm holds up....a lot of faith to put in a guy coming off TJS.

 

[Kurtz]

That's if Darvish arm holds up....a lot of faith to put in a guy coming off TJS.

He's been amazing since returning. And we know that TJS are now successful vast majority of the time. To expect him not to last 2 more months is morbidly optimistic.

 

[Red Piller]

Will you continue to believe that priests, despite their cumulative millions of years practicing the art of religion, are able to communicate with God better than I can?

I find your deferral to authority on this subject quite surprising given that up until now your posts have always relied on hard proof and hard data.


Keep in mind that the Jays high performance department was put in place largely to prepare players for the rigors of the season, both mentally and physically. They seem to have done so with Sanchez in particular, who's put on 15 lbs of muscle for the purpose of durability. Having been on the job for but a few months, it is unlikely that they have any more vital data on pitcher durability than what is publically available. This is further supported by the fact that there is absolutely no precedent (as far as I can tell) of a sp preforming as well as Sanchez has been, being placed in the bullpen. How can you have research on something that's never been done before?

I'm not sure what religion has to do with this topic at all. Baseball people know what they are doing. This is done by every single team in the Majors. This has always been the plan from day 1. Regardless of performance. Its never been done before? Its been this way for a long time. He put on that muscle so he could be more durable as a starter, sure. Go deeper into games. That muscle doesn't help protect your arm or allow you to go from 133 to 210.

Its unlikely they don't have more information than what is available to the public? You don't think teams have better information? On that side of the thinking then, since its public knowledge that guys go on gradual increases until they are stretched out to 200 innings should be common knowledge so why are people acting like it isn't?

 

[Longshot]

He's a DH. Teams aren't going to pay a DH 27-28 million.

Keep on thinking that.

Boston will be in the market for a replacement for Ortiz. They will have a bunch of money to spend. EE is going to get a massive deal for six or seven years.

 

[Red Piller]

Even Boston has a budget and I highly doubt they would want to commit 30 million to a DH.

He is not worth that money. Josh Donaldson is worth that kind of money.

David Ortiz is done after this year. They are paying him that kind of money, and he is a DH. Edwin is the perfect replacement for him for around the same money.

 

[Red Piller]

That's if Darvish arm holds up....a lot of faith to put in a guy coming off TJS.

Its ironic that people are talking about Darvish holding up because he is a guy that threw a TON of pitches in Japan. His pitchcounts would get up to 130 or 140 in games. And now he has health problems with his arm and neck. People wonder why teams coddle pitchers? Yu Darvish is a perfect example.

 

[Kurtz]

I'm not sure what religion has to do with this topic at all. Baseball people know what they are doing. This is done by every single team in the Majors. This has always been the plan from day 1. Regardless of performance.

Religion relies on deferral to authority. This is exactly what's happening here when we chose to eschew the facts in front of us in favour of saying "baseball people know better".

In fact...baseball people don't necessarily know better, and we know this. Baseball people rely on old school tradition, superstition, etc. That's why the analytics revolution turned the baseball world upside down. But the baseball world is still mired in the muck of yesteryear.

To wit: This board has been saying for 2 years that analytics show that Bautista (and not, say, Ben Revere) should be batting lead-off for the Jays. Callers on the fan 590 even suggested the same, only to be laughed off the air by Blair/Wilner, the "expert baseball people". To them, Ned Yost's mo of putting his worst hitter leading off because he has speed has always been and remains the optimal solution.

Off course a few months ago, Gibbons does finally put JB lead off. To his credit, not every manager would have the balls to do this, but the point is, here was a baseball guy catching up to what the numbers have been saying for years.


Finally, if you're suggesting that the Jays were going to do this to Sanchez on day one, you're directly contradicting Discoverer's point that the Jays have decided on this only after gathering info as the season progressed.

 

[Sokil]

David Ortiz is done after this year. They are paying him that kind of money, and he is a DH. Edwin is the perfect replacement for him for around the same money.

They are paying Ortiz $10m this year, he's never earned more than $16m in a year.